Has the Philippine Government Won Its Battle Against Inflation? SWS Self-Poverty Survey Disagrees, Unveiling Its Hidden Messages

There is no escape from debt. Paying for the government’s fictitious promises in paper money will result in a constantly depreciating currency, thereby impoverishing those who earn a wage or have savings. Inflation is the hidden tax, and it is very convenient for governments because they always blame shops or businesses and present themselves as the solution by printing even more currency. Governments want more inflation to reduce the impact of the enormous debt and unfunded liabilities in real terms. They know they can’t tax you more, so they will tax you indirectly by destroying the purchasing power of the currency they issue—Daniel Lacalle

 In this issue

Has the Philippine Government Won Its Battle Against Inflation? SWS Self-Poverty Survey Disagrees, Unveiling Its Hidden Messages

I. Unveiling the Likely Hidden Messages Behind the Declaration of Victory Over Inflation

II. Treasury Curve was Spot On about Inflation, Short-Term Treasury Yields Plunge! Will the BSP Cut by 50 bps?

III. Supply-Side Disinflation? Despite Strong Credit Growth, Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums, as Reflected by PPI Deflation and Output Sluggishness

IV. Supply-Side Disinflation? Lethargic Consumer Imports and July FDI Reflect Frail Capital Goods Imports

V. Demand-Side Disinflation? September CPI Plunged Despite Vigorous August Consumer Bank Lending, Liquidity Growth Dived

VI. Disinflation with Employment at Near Historic Highs Backed by a Credit Boom? Slower Deficit Spending Puts Pressure on Liquidity Strains

VII. SWS’s Self-Rated Poverty Survey versus the Government’s CPI 

Has the Philippine Government Won Its Battle Against Inflation? SWS Self-Poverty Survey Disagrees: Unveiling Its Hidden Messages

A Philippine media outlet proclaimed that the Philippine government won its battle against inflation, while a private survey contradicted this view. Who's right?

I. Unveiling the Likely Hidden Messages Behind the Declaration of Victory Over Inflation

Figure 1 

Two interesting headlines that hallmark this week’s conflicting message on inflation. 

Inquirer.net, October 7, 2024: The Philippines may now declare victory in its long and painful fight against inflation after price growth last month eased to a four-year low, helping create the perfect economic condition for gradual interest rate cuts…The BSP is now at a point where it has to undo its most forceful tightening actions in two decades, which had sent the benchmark rate to its highest level in 17 years to tame stubbornly high inflation. Cutting borrowing costs is necessary amid market predictions that the economy may grow below the government’s target for this year after consumption showed signs of weakening…Moving forward, Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the central bank would take “baby steps” until the key rate falls to 4.5 percent by the end of 2025, suggesting that monetary authorities would unlikely resort to jumbo cuts that may stir up market fears that the economy is headed for a hard landing. (bold mine)

SWS.org.ph, October 9, 2024: The national Social Weather Survey of September 14-23, 2024, found 59% of Filipino families rating themselves as Mahirap or Poor, 13% rating themselves as Borderline (by placing themselves on a line dividing Poor and Not Poor), and 28% rating themselves as Hindi Mahirap or Not Poor. The September 2024 percentage of Self-Rated Poor families rose by 1 point from 58% in June 2024, following a significant 12-point rise from 46% in March 2024. This was the highest percentage of Self-Rated Poor families since June 2008. The estimated numbers of Self-Rated Poor families were 16.3 million in September 2024 and 16.0 million in June 2024. The percentage of respondent households rating themselves as poor was applied to the Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2024 to arrive at the estimated numbers of Self-Rated Poor families… The September 2024 survey found the percentage of Borderline families at 13%, up by 1 point from the record low 12% in June 2024 following an 18-point decline from 30% in March 2024… As of September 2024, the percentage of Not Poor families was at 28%, 2 points below the record high 30% in June 2024. (bold mine)

First and foremost, what does "declare victory in its long and painful fight against inflation" mean? (Figure 1, upper tweet)

The Philippine CPI posted two straight months of DEFLATION (statistical price decreases) in September (-0.37%) and October (-0.19%) 2015; yet, the media and establishment experts barely made such a brazen pronouncement until now.

Yes, Q3 2024 statistical inflation of 3.2% has dropped to its 9-year support level, but this doesn’t mean that the inflation cycle has been broken.

Figure 2 

In Q3 2015, the CPI slipped into deflation at -0.1%, which prompted banks to accelerate their net claims on central government (NCoCG) or indirect QE. Ironically, this germinated the current inflation cycle, which is now on its ninth-year.  (Figure 2 upper image)

Despite its recent decline, given that the CPI has remained on an uptrend since 2015 and appears to have settled at the support levels, what assurances does the establishment hold that it won’t be subject to a third wave?

Second, the September CPI of 1.9% doesn’t translate to the evisceration of inflation; it only means that GENERAL prices have risen at REDUCED rates (or have dropped to within the BSP’s target), but they are still RISING!

In fact, BSP data tell us that even in the context of the understated inflation rate, over 99% of the purchasing power of the peso has been eroded since 1957! How is that for "declaring victory over inflation"? (Figure 2, lower chart)

On the other hand, while authorities and media bask in this pretentious statistical feat, a private sector survey tell us a different story: slower inflation has exposed the persistent and growing burden of a lower standard of living! (More on this below.) (Figure 1, lower tweet)

Third, "declaring victory over inflation" was NEVER a goal of the BSP’s monetary policy anchored on inflation targeting.

From the BSP: The primary objective of the BSP's monetary policy is “to promote price stability conducive to a balanced and sustainable growth of the economy” (Republic Act 7653). The adoption of inflation targeting framework of monetary policy in January 2002 is aimed at achieving this objective. Inflation targeting is focused mainly on achieving a low and stable inflation, supportive of the economy’s growth objective. This approach entails the announcement of an explicit inflation target that the BSP promises to achieve over a given time period. (bold mine)

There is no defined quantification or qualification of "low and stable inflation" because statistical inflation has always been a subjective measure, arbitrarily defined by the BSP.

That said, the goal of the politics behind inflation targeting has been to keep the inflation "genie" confined within the boundaries of the BSP’s proverbial "lamp."

That’s because inflation, as a hidden tax, benefits the government most.

However, the inflation genie has been set loose, or has gone beyond its bounds, marking the difference between the previous era and today.

In this way, the BSP can be conservatively said to have been "asleep at the wheel."

At worst, and unbeknownst to the public, the BSP’s policies have unleashed the inflation genie!

Or, although authorities continue to push the narrative of supply-side-driven inflation to shift the blame onto the private sector, the current inflation cycle signify an unintended consequence of their policies!

Yet, has anyone among the array of establishment experts, including those in government, been correct in predicting the incumbent inflation cycle? 

Fourth, the CPI is just a statistic. While its intent is to approximate changes in general prices, it neither reveals the full accuracy nor explains the causes of those changes. 

The fact is that inflation statistics are misleading.

My inflation rate and yours are different.  This is because of dynamic individual spending habits and ever-changing preferences that vary not only over time but also differs across individuals. 

Is it not the averaging a Netflix subscription and rice an exercise of apples-to-oranges comparison?  If so, would this not be applied to the CPI? 

Or, not only is the weighted averaging of goods and services across different groups of people a flawed metric, but people’s spending preferences are constantly changing! 

How accurate is an inflation rate derived from averaging the spending patterns of billionaires with those of the bottom 30%? 

Even on a personal level, my preferences are always changing. If I prefer sautéed prawns with bread this moment, adobo with rice later, and only sinigang for tomorrow, how could the inputs used to create these meals be accurately averaged? How would this apply to a population of 110 million people? 

Furthermore, because the CPI is a politically sensitive statistic—created and calculated by politically sensitive institutions—it is prone not only to errors (in assumptions, inputs, etc.) but also to political biases. 

For instance, changing the base year of the CPI can lead to different outcomes. If I’m not mistaken, using the now-defunct 2006 base would produce a much higher CPI today than the current 2018 base. 

Since the CPI is used as a primary benchmark for the market’s pricing of interest rates, wouldn’t the government—as the biggest borrowers—have the incentive or motivation to suppress it to influence the cost of borrowing? 

Fifth, what happened to journalism? 

Isn’t journalism about "seeking truth and providing a fair and comprehensive account of events and issues"? 

When media outlets use ambiguous qualifications like " declare victory against inflation" to describe the "perfect economic condition for gradual interest rate cuts" intended to support "consumption (which) showed signs of weakening," could this not signify cheerleading or an advocacy for a biased policy stance? For whose benefit? 

Might this be seen as advancing the interests of vested groups, particularly the primary beneficiary, the government and the politically connected elites? How is this different from propaganda, misinformation, or disinformation? 

Importantly, if an alleged news article makes an economic generalization, why would it lack narratives supported by economic logic? 

Or, are low rates a GUARANTEE of an INCREASE in consumption? How so, and based on what theory and evidence? 

Why cite partisan and non-sequitur explanations from "establishment experts" whose principal-agent problems have hardly been laid bare to the public? 

Have media outlets distilled such insights or selected statements for print that only promote their biases? I’ve seen this happen (personally) before, which is why I refuse interviews. 

Sixth, if media pronouncements reflect exuded marketplace confidence, could such article/s signify a manifestation of the magazine/headline cover indicator or express an extreme state of sentiment? 

Or have the media’s declarations echoed the "overconfidence" stemming from recent euphoria over the price spikes in Philippine assets (stocks, bonds, and the peso)? 

Seventh and lastly, could this be related to the upcoming elections? 

Will declaring 'victory in its long and painful fight against inflation' be part of the campaign to promote the electoral chances of the administration’s national slate in the 2025 midterm elections? 

Ultimately, the establishment's obsession has been to promote a regime of easy money, using the declaration of triumph over inflation as justification. 

As the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises once explained 

The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers' stone to make it last (Mises, 2019)  

II. Treasury Curve was Spot On about Inflation, Short-Term Treasury Yields Plunge! Will the BSP Cut by 50 bps? 

While the headline CPI plummeted from 3.3% in August to 1.9% in September—its lowest monthly rate since May 2020—excluding food and energy, the core CPI slipped to 2.4%, signifying 17 of 18 months of decline (one unchanged) since peaking at 8% in March 2023. 

Before that, we showed how changes in the Philippine yield curve have accurately predicted the CPI slump. 

despite the 4.4% CPI bump in July (and Q2 6.3% GDP), the Philippine treasury market continues to defy inflationary expectations by maintaining a deep inversion of the curve’s belly, which again signals slower inflation, upcoming BSP cuts, and increased financial and economic uncertainty. (Prudent Investor, August 2024) 

… 

Moreover, the curious take is that despite all the massive stimulus, the belly’s inversion in the Philippine treasury market has only deepened at the close of August.  

This does not suggest a build-up of price pressures or a strong rebound in the private sector. On the other hand, rising short-term rates indicate intensifying liquidity issues.   

In the end, while Marcos-nomics stimulus seems to have reaccelerated liquidity, a resurgence of inflation is likely to exacerbate "stagflationary" pressures and increase the likelihood of a bust in the Philippines’ credit bubble. (Prudent Investor, September 2024) 

Volatility has crescendoed in the Philippine treasury curve.

Figure 3

The present slope exhibits an astounding collapse in short-term rates (STIR), manifesting institutional market expectations of substantial cuts in BSP rates. Will the BSP cut by 50 bps this October? (Figure 3, upper graph) 

Yet, the curve’s magnified volatility has been incredible: following the gradual transition from flat to an inverted curve, then swiftly to a bullish steepening, and next to the current abrupt regression to a partial belly inversion—even with the plunge in STIR—how could this not be conducive to the rising risks of stagflation?

III. Supply-Side Disinflation? Despite Strong Credit Growth, Manufacturing Remains in the Doldrums, as Reflected by PPI Deflation and Output Sluggishness 

While we perceive government statistics with cynicism, we still use them because almost every financial market participant does.

Instead of focusing on the potential factors for the drop, the mainstream fixates on the prospective policy easing by the BSP.

Could the plunge in inflation have been a supply-side phenomenon marked by a glut?

In a word: Barely.

Manufacturing value grew by 2.9% in June, 6.45% in July, and 1.78% in August, while volume was up by 3.2%, 6.9%, and 2.8% over the same period.

Meanwhile, despite strong Universal Commercial Bank (UCB) loan growth to this sector—rising by 8.9%, 9.5%, and 9.8%—the Producer Price Index (PPI) deflated by -0.2%, -0.4%, and -1%. (Figure 3, lower chart)

Here’s the question: Why has robust credit growth not been reflected in output performance?

Worse yet, why is the deflation in the PPI escalating? PPI defined by the Philippine Statistics Authority, "measures the average change over time in the prices of products or commodities produced by domestic manufactures and sold at factory gate prices."

Where has all the credit money generated gone?

Has it been diverted to real estate or other undeclared allocations? Or has it been used for refinancing existing liabilities?

IV. Supply-Side Disinflation? Lethargic Consumer Imports and July FDI Reflect Frail Capital Goods Imports

If manufacturing growth has been unimpressive or sluggish, the situation is even worse for imports.

Imports in USD posted a 7.3% YoY contraction in June, then rose by 7.3% in July and 1.8% in August.

Converted to average pesos, imports were down by 2.63% YoY in June, surged by 14.3% in July, and grew by 4.6% in August, with the last month’s growth reflecting revaluation effects from a strong peso.

Figure 4

Here’s the thing: Consumer goods USD imports contracted by 7.3% in June, increased by 3.1% in July, and remained unchanged in August. (Figure 4, topmost pane)

Meanwhile, capital goods imports shrank by 8.8% in June but surged by 9.5% and 9.6% in the next two months. A substantial segment of the YoY changes reflects base effects. (Figure 4, middle diagram)

Nonetheless, the growth in capital goods imports partly reflected foreign direct investment (FDI).

The prosaic July FDI growth of 5.5% YoY (7.5% year-to-date) resonated with mediocre import growth. (Figure 4, lowest graph)

Yet, debt accounted for 74.3% of total FDI inflows and 63.5% of year-to-date FDI inflows. How much of this represent actual investments?

Still, why is the growth rate of FDIs declining?

Importantly, where are the investment pledges from the US-NATO allies?

V. Demand-Side Disinflation? September CPI Plunged Despite Vigorous August Consumer Bank Lending, Liquidity Growth Dived

Was the CPI slump a function of demand?

In short, yes!

We should put into context the seismic transformation of the Philippine banking system, with its recent focus on consumer loans coming at the expense of the supply side.

Figure 5

Universal Commercial (UC) bank consumer lending slowed from 24.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July to 23.7% in August, marking its slowest pace since November 2023. (Figure 5, topmost chart)

Consumer loan growth was strong across all segments in August: credit cards +27.44%, auto loans +19.3%, salary loans +16.4%, and others +26.8%.

Meanwhile, production loans continue to accelerate, expanding from 8.8% in July to 9.4% YoY in August, primarily in the real estate and trade sectors.

Overall, UC bank lending grew from 10.4% to 10.9% in August (Figure 4, second to the highest graph)

Despite mainstream claims of "restrictiveness" or "tightness" due to elevated rates, UC Bank's loan growth has been on an uptrend. Still, the CPI continues its downward trajectory!

Worse yet, despite this, financial liquidity plummeted in August.

M3 growth, which was 7.3% in July, dived to 5.5% in August. Incredible.

Incidentally, the yield curve inversion reflected this!

Once again, what happened to all the record money creation by the banking system and the BSP? Why the black hole?

VI. Disinflation with Employment at Near Historic Highs Backed by a Credit Boom? Slower Deficit Spending Puts Pressure on Liquidity Strains

Why could this be happening when employment rates are near all-time highs?

It was 96% last August, only a smidgen lower than the 96.9% record set last December 2023. (Figure 5, second to the lowest window)

Could it be that, aside from trade, government jobs were the primary source of growth in August? (Figure 5, lowest image)

Or could it also have been that employment growth has been mostly about low-quality labor? Alternatively, could the employment data also have been embellished?

Figure 6

Moreover, as we previously noted, because Philippine public spending has slowed, the fiscal deficit slightly "narrowed" year-to-date (YTD) as of August. Public spending has tracked the CPI over the long-term. (Figure 6, topmost diagram) 

As a result, aided by the strong peso, public debt marginally weakened in August.

Moreover, has the stalling growth in system leverage (UC bank credit + public debt) contributed to the demand pressures reflected in the CPI? (Figure 6, second to the highest graph)

Consequently, net claims on the central government (NCoCG) by banks and the BSP plateaued or consolidated. (Figure 6, second to the lowest chart)

Or, aside from the BSP, liquidity injections channeled through banks have slowed slightly.

This, combined with a stealth rise in bank non-performing loans (NPLs) and elevated levels of held-to-maturity assets (HTMs), has contributed to the liquidity squeeze.

And this has occurred despite the record nominal bank credit expansion and historically high employment rates. The plunge in September’s CPI might reflect a downturn in public and private demand, possibly worsened by mounting signs of a liquidity shortfall.

VII. SWS’s Self-Rated Poverty Survey versus the Government’s CPI 

Things don’t happen in a vacuum.

The BSP suddenly announced a massive reduction of the banking system’s reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on September 20th, obviously in response to such developments. The adjustment takes effect on October 25.

The PSA’s September CPI data exhibits a broad-based decline in price growth. While food prices had the biggest influence on the CPI’s significant downside volatility, slowing aggregate demand reflected the diminishing pace of price increases across most sectors. (Figure 6, lowest image)

All these factors point to the SWS Q3 data indicating an increase in self-rated poverty, which not only highlights the decline in living standards for a significant majority of families but also emphasizes the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots.

As a caveat, survey-based statistics are vulnerable to errors and biases; the SWS is no exception.

Though the proclivity to massage data for political goals is higher for the government, we can’t discount its influence on private sector pollsters either.

In any case, we suspect that a phone call from the office of the political higher-ups may compel conflicting surveys to align as one.

____

References 

Ludwig von Mises, The Boom Is Worse than the Bust, November 30, 2018 Mises.org 

Prudent Investor, The Philippines' July 4.4% CPI: Stagflation Remains a Primary Political, Economic, and Financial Risk August 12, 2024

 

Prudent Investor, Philippine Government’s July Deficit "Narrowed" from Changes in VAT Reporting Schedule, Raised USD 2.5 Billion Plus $500 Million Climate Financing September 1, 2024

  

Is the Philippine Peso Immune from the Rising Risk of a Sino-Philippine Military Conflict? Why the Silence over its Risks?

  

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it– Strauss & Howe: The Fourth Turning

In this issue

Is the Philippine Peso Immune from the Rising Risk of a Sino-Philippine Military Conflict? Why the Silence over its Risks?

I. Reverse Psychology? Philippine Peso as One of Asia’s Worst Performing Currencies?

II. Blissful Oblivion or Willful Negligence: Is the Philippine Peso Immune to the Growing Risk of a Military Conflict?

III. Asian Currencies in the Shadow of a Strong US Dollar

IV. The Gross International Reserves is no Talisman Against the Uptrend of the USDPHP

V. The BSP’s Increasing "Borrowed Reserves"

VI. The Trickle-Down Political Economy’s Dependence on "Twin Deficits" Depletes FX Buffers

VII. Thinning FX Buffers: Slowing Remittances and Tourism, Debt-dependent FDI, and Volatile Foreign Portfolio Flows

VIII. USDPHP is Driven by the Real Economy; Questioning a War-Hawkish Public and Financial Experts, "You Two Are Discussing the Same Country, Aren't You?"

Is the Philippine Peso Immune from the Rising Risk of a Sino-Philippine Military Conflict? Why the Silence over its Risks?

While the local media is abuzz with the worsening standoff in the territorial dispute between the Philippine government and China, and the Philippine Peso nearing record levels, financial experts are oddly silent about the economic risks involved.

I. Reverse Psychology? Philippine Peso as One of Asia’s Worst Performing Currencies?

Figure 1

Mainstream experts seem more confused than ever about the state of the US dollar-Philippine peso $USDPHP. 

As the $USDPHP approaches a milepost, they appear to be sugarcoating the fragility of the Philippine peso by attributing the peso’s weakness to the divergent policy conditions between the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). (Figure 1, topmost image)

They are actually defending the Philippine peso when they allude to the strength of the US dollar, the elevated Gross International Reserves (GIR), and other possible BSP toolkits. 

Using what seems as reverse psychology, a foreign institution even projected that the peso would "become one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies," given the BSP’s ‘dovish’ stance. (Figure 1, middle visual)

Bizarrely, they placed a marker for this: the USDPHP would "hold at 58 per dollar, although it may weaken to as low as 58.60, which would be a few centavos away from the record-low 59 it hit in 2022." 

Amazing. 

The thing is, the news was hardly a projection; it was a description of present events. 

The USDPHP signified the fourth worst currency in Asia (year-to-date), after the Japanese yen $USDJPY, South Korean won $USDKRW, and Indonesian rupiah $USDINR—as of June 21st. (Figure 1, lowest chart) 

By placing a boundary for the "worst in Asia" assumption to hold, it translates to either a positional stasis or that most Asian currencies would do better because of the so-called ‘dovish’ stance of the BSP. 

Figure 2

Ironically, the nominal yield spread between the 10-year Philippine BVAL and US Treasury bonds has been rising in favor of the former.

Operating under the belief of arbitrage opportunities, the consensus thinks that relatively higher (nominal) rates for the Philippine Treasury should favor the peso.

But this dynamic has barely been the case, as a relatively lower Philippine yield has coincided with a strong peso and vice versa from 2019 to Q1 2022. Since then, USDPHP has climbed ahead despite the spread—or the correlation broke from Q2 2022 to the present. (Figure 2, topmost diagram) 

In brief, this loose correlation does not support the popular thesis.

II. Blissful Oblivion or Willful Negligence: Is the Philippine Peso Immune to the Growing Risk of a Military Conflict?

Here is what the Overton Window critically overlooks: the escalating standoff over the territorial dispute between the Philippines and the Chinese government.

Haven't you noticed? The Sino-Philippine West Philippine Sea showdown has been splashed all over mainstream media. Despite this, there is nearly ZERO attribution about it to the Philippine peso or the Philippine economy. This stark contrast underscores the disconnect between the intense diplomatic and military tensions and the lack of insights into its potential economic fallout.

That is to say, while the risks of the Philippines becoming the Ukraine of Asia grows with every confrontation, the consensus oxymoronically sees such risks as non-existent. 

Could they be talking about the Philippines? Why the complete absence of the mounting risks of war?

This seemingly incredible blindness represents either "blissful oblivion" or "willful negligence" over the possible cataclysmic risks from an outbreak of violence. 

As I recently posted on my X (formerly Twitter) account, at the onset of wars, the currencies of those involved—namely the Russian ruble $USDRUB, Ukraine’s hryvnia $USDUAH, and Israel’s new shekel $USDILS—materially fell against the US dollar. (Figure 2, lower image)

That's a blueprint for the Philippine economy that we should expect when water cannons and knives escalate into a shooting battle.

Aside from a possible plunge in the Philippine peso, depending on the scale of war, we can expect a double "deep" recession, a possible stock market crash (if it remains open), rolling brownouts—when power plants become military targets—which means disruptions in digital payments and bank ATM withdrawals, massive disruptions in the division of labor, and the BSP printing more money—which leads to stagflation!

While we earnestly pray that this does not happen, as there are other peaceful options like Vietnam’s "bamboo diplomacy," the Asian version of foreign policy neutrality, it is a risk that every Philippine resident confronts as contending parties to territorial claims remain intransigent and lean on belligerency.

Although we won’t expand further on the geopolitical dimension of the rising risks of a Sino-Philippine military conflict, it's crucial to note that the US dollar-Philippine peso exchange rate is not insulated from these rising tensions. 

My brief two cents on the Philippine government’s turnaround regarding the alleged "armed aggression" of China in an X thread. 

III. Asian Currencies in the Shadow of a Strong US Dollar 

Operating under the de facto US dollar standard, the US and its political, economic, and financial activities overseas have a distinctive impact on the world. 

In addition to the transition away from globalization and domestic politics, geopolitics is another key factor contributing to the recent increasing value of the USD. 

An abrupt rise in the US dollar is often a sign of emerging economic distress.

Figure 3 

Unlike its popular portrayal, the rising value of the USD is not an anomaly. 

Using the US dollar index $DXY as a benchmark, it has been in an uptrend since 2021, supported by a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. More importantly, the longer-term trend shows a 9-year uptrend. (Figure 3, topmost and second to the highest graphs) 

The $DXY is composed of a weighted basket of developed economy currencies, including the European euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. 

The uptrend in the USD is evident across several ASEAN currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah $USDIDR, the Philippine peso, the Malaysian ringgit $USDMYR, and the Vietnam dong $USDVND, though it's not shown in the chart. (Figure 3, second to the lowest chart) 

In the long term, however, the USD has underperformed against the Thai baht $USDTHB and Singapore dollar $USDSGD. (Figure 3, lowest window)

Using the mainstream's logic, the Bank of Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly raised rates in April in an attempt to "anchor the rupiah". Despite this move, the $USDIDR pair carved out a milestone high last week. Was the BI's decision still "dovish"? 

The essence lies in the fact that Asian currencies exhibit asymmetric performances that are underpinned by their idiosyncratic or unique domestic conditions. 

A sweeping generalization of a strong USD represents a fallacy of composition.

IV. The Gross International Reserves is no Talisman Against the Uptrend of the USDPHP

Figure 4

More intriguing is the widespread conviction that the country's foreign exchange reserves (GIR) serve as a talisman against the rising US dollar, which appears to be more of a manifestation of faith or defending piety than an analysis based on economic theory and data.

If this belief were valid, then $USDPHP pair would have underperformed. Alternatively, there wouldn’t have been an uptrend in $USDPHP if the GIR had functioned as advertised. (Figure 4, topmost image)

Instead, we see that the GIR fell upon its drawdown by the BSP to defend the peso when the $USDPHP carved a record in 2022.

Ironically, the BSP accelerated its accumulation of GIR in 2019-2020 just at the late stage of the peso's rally.

Since then, it has been a tango for the GIR and USDPHP as both proceeded higher.

Separately, as evident from the BSP's annual balance sheet, the strength of the $USDPHP has coincided with an increasing percentage share of BSP's local currency issuance against its total liabilities. (Figure 4, middle chart)

In short, the primary driver of the USD/PHP's uptrend has been the BSP's money printing operations, not the GIR.

V. The BSP’s Increasing "Borrowed Reserves"

Furthermore, what authorities say is often taken as "gospel truth," with few questioning the numbers behind them.

Let us turn to the GIR. 

The Philippine government borrowed USD 2 billion in early May.

The BSP described the increase in its GIR for the same month as follows: "The month-on-month increase in the GIR level reflected mainly the National Government’s (NG) net foreign currency deposits with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which include proceeds from its issuance of ROP Global Bonds, and net income from the BSP’s investments abroad." (BSP, 2024) 

Subsequently, the BSP also disclosed that its Balance of Payments (BOP) showed a surplus during the same period: "The BOP surplus in May 2024 reflected inflows arising mainly from the National Government’s (NG) net foreign currency deposits with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which include proceeds from its issuance of ROP Global Bonds, and net income from the BSP’s investments abroad." (BSP, 2024)

See that? The BSP admitted that "borrowed reserves" has constituted a part of its GIR and BOP. Hence, the USDPHP ignored them and proceeded higher. (Figure 4, lowest graph)

Figure 5

May’s US dollar borrowings will likely add to the USD 128.7 billion of external debt, which was up by 8.32% in Q1 2024. (Figure 5, topmost graph)

External debt has soared past the BSP’s GIR of USD 104.1 billion for the same period.

Yet, as acknowledged by the BSP, part of external debt has been incorporated into the GIR.

There’s more to consider.

As the Philippines’ April GIR showed, based on IMF’s International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL), the BSP has been selling off its gold reserves and has boosted its use of Other Reserve Assets (ORA).  The BSP’s physical gold reserves last April signified a multi-year low! (Figure 5, middle pane)

Other Reserve Assets comprise financial derivatives, short-term currency loans, repos, and other liquid assets. (IMF, IRFCL)

During the international easy money era, ORA became a feature in the GIR build-up from 2018-2020 and the rally of the peso. (Figure 5, lowest chart)

However, rising costs compelled the BSP to reduce its use in 2022. Nonetheless, the BSP returned to it last April 2024.

The thing is, "borrowed reserves" represent "US dollar shorts," which is attendant with an increasing likelihood of maturity mismatches, especially during times of stress.

Furthermore, "borrowed reserves" will need payment or refinancing. The greater the borrowings, the higher interest payments, refinancing, and principal payments, even in the assumption of steady rates, which translates to increased pressure for organic sourcing of USD revenues.

Otherwise, the economy and government would be forced to continue borrowing externally to meet growing USD liquidity needs, while increasing domestic liquidity, which would amplify the pressure for the Philippine peso to depreciate further. 

VI. The Trickle-Down Political Economy’s Dependence on "Twin Deficits" Depletes FX Buffers 

Given the entrenched "trickle-down" political-economic architecture driving the borrowing-to-spend (to prosperity) paradigm, which has engendered a record savings-investment gap, it is difficult to envision a structural shift in the current dynamics—specifically, a transition away from debt dependence—without a disorderly adjustment. 

Underpinned by Keynesian ideology, the establishment has made little or no effort to promote this essential structural change.

Rather than acknowledging the accruing tradeoffs from transitioning to a centralized political economy anchored in fiscal spending (infrastructure and the war economy) and increasing bureaucratization, the consensus continues to promote the illusion of a consumer-driven economy. 

Figure 6

A strengthening economy would swell trade deficits, given the structural shortcomings in local production, while an acceleration of the fiscal deficit would magnify the credit-financed "twin deficits." 

As evidence, April’s trade deficit expanded as imports grew by 12.6%, driven by increases in capital imports (+10.5%) and consumer goods (+15.7%). (Figure 6, top, middle and lowest chart) 

Therefore, authorities would need to rely on remittances, tourism, service exports, FDIs, foreign portfolio flows, or borrowings to cover the FX deficits.

VII. Thinning FX Buffers: Slowing Remittances and Tourism, Debt-dependent FDI, and Volatile Foreign Portfolio Flows

Figure 7

Despite record-high nominal Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances last April, their growth rate has been slowing down primarily due to base effects.

Moreover, remittance flows are heavily influenced by global economic conditions, which may face hurdles from increasing barriers to social mobility. For instance, rising economic barriers and increased nationalism are expected to slow OFW flows.

On the other hand, vigorous tourism growth in 2023, fueled by strong domestic "revenge travel" and improved foreign arrivals, appears to have cooled down in 2024.

While FDI flows seem to be improving, the majority of these flows consist of debt. Reported FDI flows were up 23% last March and 42% in the first quarter, with debt accounting for 68% and 62% of the share, respectively.

Intercompany debt infusions do not guarantee genuine investments. Instead, they expand the USD shorts.

Additionally, taking sides in the geopolitical hegemonic contest could deter investors, making politics rather than markets the determinant of investment flows.

Meanwhile, volatile flows from foreign portfolio exposure cannot be relied upon to boost demand for the peso. This is primarily due to the structural inadequacy of the capital markets' depth (PSE and the fixed income market), which remain dominated by the elites.

Another fundamental reason is that portfolio flows are heavily dependent on global risk conditions.

Lastly, services exports appear to be the remaining hope to cushion the peso via USD revenues. So far, the industry is said to be on track to meet its growth targets this year.

However, any slowdown in this sector would exacerbate USD funding pressures.

VIII. USDPHP is Driven by the Real Economy; Questioning a War-Hawkish Public and Financial Experts, "You Two Are Discussing the Same Country, Aren't You?" 

It is clear that the USDPHP has not been primarily driven by BSP-FED policy divergence but by real economic factors, including the BSP’s domestic monetary operations. 

If the current arrangements have resulted in thin buffers, imagine what an outbreak of military conflict would do. 

The striking divergence between a war-hawkish leaning public and the absence of discussion about its risks in the domestic financial sphere reminds me of the glaring disparity in the fact-finding report by two of former US President John F. Kennedy's foreign policy advisors, Victor Krulak and Joseph Mendenhall, on Vietnam. President Kennedy reportedly asked both, "You two did visit the same country, didn't you?" 

Paraphrasing Kennedy and alluding to local media and domestic financial experts, "You two are discussing the same country, aren't you?"

_____

References: 

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, End-May 2024 GIR Level Rises to US$104.48 Billion June 7, 2024, bsp.gov.ph 

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, BOP Posts US$2.0 Billion Surplus in May 2024; End-May GIR Rises to US$105.0 Billion June 19, 2024 bsp.gov.ph

International Monetary Fund, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AND FOREIGN CURRENCY LIQUIDITY GUIDELINES FOR A DATA TEMPLATE, p.25 imf.org

 

Analyzing the Philippines’ February Merchandise Trade: Unveiling the Impact of Statistical Base Effects on a 'Growth' Rebound

 

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable—Mark Twain

 

In this issue

Analyzing the Philippines’ February Merchandise Trade: Unveiling the Impact of Statistical Base Effects on a 'Growth' Rebound

I. Unveiling the Statistical Mirage Behind Merchandise Trade Growth

II. Export Boom? Semiconductor Up YoY but on a Downslide while Agro-Based and EDP Exports Rebound

III. Import Trends: Capital, Consumer, and Raw Materials Up YoY, Yet in Downtrend—Where Are the Investments?

IV. A Revival of the Domestic Manufacturing Sector?

V. Private Sector S&P PMI Survey Diverge from the PSA; Rising USD Peso Points to Risks of Stagflation

 

Analyzing the Philippines’ February Merchandise Trade: Unveiling the Impact of Statistical Base Effects on a 'Growth' Rebound

 

Government and media pounced on the positive YoY sign on Philippine Merchandise Trade, interpreting it as "growth."  However, filtering noise from signal tell us otherwise.

 

I. Unveiling the Statistical Mirage Behind Merchandise Trade Growth

 

Businessworld, April 12: Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the country’s trade-in-goods balance — the difference between exports and imports — stood at a $3.65-billion deficit in February, slipping by 6% from the $3.88-billion gap in February last year. Month on month, the trade gap also narrowed from the revised $4.39 billion in January. The trade deficit in February was the smallest in five months or since the $3.55-billion deficit in September last year. Outbound sale of goods expanded for the second straight month by 15.7% annually to $5.91 billion in February. This was faster than the revised 9.1% growth in January and a turnaround from the 18.3% decline in February last year. This was the quickest exports growth in 16 months or since the 20.6% surge in October 2022. Meanwhile, imports rose by 6.3% to $9.55 billion in February, ending two months of decline. This was a turnaround from the revised 6.1% contraction in January and the 11.8% decline in February 2023. Imports growth was also the fastest in 16 months or since 7.7% in October 2022. (italics mine)

 

YoY February exports grew by 15.7%, while imports increased by 6.34%, and total external trade expanded by 9.74%. As a result, the trade deficit improved by 6%.

 

Great news, right?

 

That's if you discount the overall trend.

 

In reality, February's boost was a mirage—a product of the statistical "low" base effect.

Figure 1

 

From a noise versus signal standpoint, February's USD performance only reinforced the downside drift of the nation's trend in external trade. (Figure 1, topmost graph)

 

It is no coincidence that the fall in external trade deficit has resonated with the easing of the fiscal deficit manifesting the "twin deficits."  (Figure 1, middle window)

 

The easing of public spending has reduced the "crowding effect," freeing up more resources for the market economy's use. (Figure 1, lowest chart)

 

Still, despite the imbalances from the structural shift in bank lending operations, the declining import trend demonstrates mounting strains on consumers from inflation.

 

However, both deficits translate to an economy spending more than it produces, thereby requiring borrowing to fund the savings-investment gap.

 

II. Export Boom? Semiconductor Up YoY but on a Downslide while Agro-Based and EDP Exports Rebound

 

Export boom?

Figure 2

 

Though semiconductor exports soared by 31.9% in February, export volume in USD has been down 2.14% MoM. It has been trending down since September 2023/October 2022. (Figure 2, topmost image)

 

The microchip % share of exports accounted for 44.8% in February 2024, slightly lower than 45.5% in January and substantially higher than 39.3% from the same month a year ago.

 

What other sectors grew in volume and in percentage?

 

Agro-based exports jumped 24.1% YoY, accounting for 7.2% of the total share. (Figure 2, middle diagram)

 

Electronic Data Processing exports also vaulted by 23.1% YoY, with a 7.5% share of the total. (Figure 2, lowest graph)

 

Electronic products (which include the semiconductor and EDP sectors) soared by 27%, accounting for 58% share of the total.

 

The thing is, only a handful of sectors benefited from February's export growth.

III. Import Trends: Capital, Consumer, and Raw Materials Up YoY, Yet in Downtrend—Where Are the Investments?

 

How about imports?

 

Last February, capital goods imports fell by only 3.4% YoY, while consumer goods imports grew by 9.2%.

Figure 3

 

But both sectors suffered a plunge in USD volume of 13.6% and 16.3% MoM, and they have shown signs of further weakening (Figure 3, topmost image)

 

So based on capital goods imports, the avalanche of news headlines about the proposed massive investment flows from a peripatetic leadership selling politically related investments to the US and their allies have yet to happen.

 

Still, the government reported that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows almost "doubled" in January 2024, mainly from a surge of debt flows. Debt flows accounted for 90% of the FDI. Investments, eh?

 

Curiously, despite the wonderful headlines predicated on YoY, the FDI trend in million USD remains southbound. (Figure 3, middle visual)

 

And this bifurcation applies to raw materials imports, which expanded by 11.8%, despite the downtrend since 3Q 2022. Raw material imports serve as a pulse on the manufacturing sector. (Figure 3, lowest chart)

 

IV. A Revival of the Domestic Manufacturing Sector?

 

Yet, authorities tell us that growth in the manufacturing sector has been picking up.

Figure 4

 

First, the sector's bank credit growth more than doubled from 2% in January to 5.9% in February. The sector's bank credit growth has dovetailed the Producers Price Index (PPI) or "measure of change in the prices of products or commodities produced by domestic manufacturers and sold at farm gate prices to wholesale/other consumers in the domestic market." (PSA, Openstat)

 

Will the PPI follow the rebound in bank credit?

 

Second, manufacturing volume and value were up 8.9% and 7.5% in February 2024, even as net sales in volume and value contracted by 0.5% and 1.7%.

 

Generally, producers have been ramping up in production despite slower sales—implying substantial inventory accumulation.

 

V. Private Sector S&P PMI Survey Diverge from the PSA; Rising USD Peso Points to Risks of Stagflation

 

Figure 5

 

But, the S&P PMI survey for March diverged from the PSA:

 

The latest PMI® data by S&P Global indicated only a modest improvement in the health of the Filipino manufacturing sector during March. Though the pace of expansion was largely sustained from the previous survey period, growth in new orders remained historically subdued. Furthermore, production lapsed back into contraction for the first time since July 2022 amid material shortages. Companies raised their employment and buying activity at stronger rates and renewed their efforts to replenish inventories. That said, the degree of confidence in the outlook for output over the coming year dropped to a near four-year low. In terms of prices, the rate of input cost inflation softened to the weakest since October 2020. Additionally, charges levied for Filipino manufactured goods fell for the first time in nearly four years. (SPI Global, April 2024)

 

Both indicators shared the replenishment of inventories and the account of disinflation via the PPI, but instead of output growth, the SPI indicated a production lapse.

 

The Philippine PMI appears to have been plagued by a "rounding top." (Figure 5, topmost image)

 

In summary, government data points to an upturn in the manufacturing sector in the GDP, which diverges from the SPI’s outlook.

 

Dialing back to imports, only one major category registered increases in both YoY and MoM volume: fuel imports, which were up by 8.3% YoY and 28.4% MoM, driven by rising oil prices. (Figure 5, middle chart)

 

As noted above, due to the "low" base of 2023, government data recorded growth—a chimera.

 

However, the general trend for merchandise trade exhibits ongoing weakness in capital goods, consumers, and manufacturing, along with rising risks of stagflation.

 

The rising US dollar-Philippine peso $USDPHP suggests that the easing of this deficit (and the twin deficits) must be ephemeral. (Figure 5, lowest diagram)

 

___

References:

 

S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI Filipino manufacturing output slides into contraction for the first time since July 2022, April 1, 2024, spglobal.com