Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Russia Threatens Denmark with Nukes, Putin Signs Pact with Georgia Breakaway Group, US-China Square off over Missiles at South Korea

Underneath those record setting stocks and frantic central bank rescues have been risks developing in the sphere of geopolitics

Below are excerpts of some news articles and opinion columns and their corresponding links.

1) Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters, March 22,2015)

Russia threatened to aim nuclear missiles at Danish warships if Denmark joins NATO's missile defense system, in comments Copenhagen called unacceptable and NATO said would not contribute to peace.

Denmark said in August it would contribute radar capacity on some of its warships to the missile shield, which the Western alliance says is designed to protect members from missile launches from countries like Iran.

Moscow opposes the system, arguing that it could reduce the effectiveness of its own nuclear arsenal, leading to a new Cold War-style arms race.

War drums beat louder.

2) Putin Signs Pact With Breakaway Georgian Region (Radio Free Europe, March 18, 2015)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a pact with a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Georgia, despite condemnation by Tbilisi and the West.

Putin and the de facto leader of South Ossetia, Leonid Tibilov, signed the "alliance and integration treaty" in the Kremlin on March 18. 

Part of the treaty gives Russia responsibility for ensuring the defense and security of South Ossetia, including guarding its borders.

Security and mliitary forces currently tasked with defending the region are to be incorporated into Russia's armed forces or Russia security bodies.

More brinkmanship geopolitics

3) U.S. Nuclear Warfighting Plan Could Wipe Out the Human Race (Executive Intelligence Review March 13, 2015)

The reality is that the United States is not only creating the “appearance” of preparing to fight and win a nuclear war, but it actually is preparing to fight and win a nuclear war, although the idea that the United States can do that against another nuclear power is a dangerous delusion. Gen. Maj. Andrei Burbin, chief of the Central Command Post of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), made this clear in an unusual March 1 on-air briefing on Russia’s RSN Radio. The message he delivered was that “utopian” military schemes for “limited nuclear war” or a “counterforce” destruction of Russia’s nuclear weapons are illusory: They will fail, and the result will be retaliation against the U.S. by Russia using the missiles of the SMF. (See “Hear These Russian Warnings: They Might Save Your Life,” EIR, March 6, 2015.)…

Indeed, the delusion that the U.S. could wage and win nuclear war against Russia could lead to the end of civilization itself.

Yikes!

4) Russia Sends Nuclear-Capable Bombers to Crimea (Daily Signal March 20, 2015)

As NATO and Russia simultaneously launch military exercises stretching from Eastern Europe into the Arctic, Russian defense officials said this week that supersonic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons will be deployed to Crimea.

According to the Russian news agency TASS, Tupolev TU-22M3 strategic bombers will be positioned in the former Ukrainian territory as part of a snap military exercise involving Russia’s Navy’s Northern Fleet, which has been put on full alert, and other ground and air units across Russia. The Russian military drills comprise 40,000 troops, more than 41 warships, 15 submarines and 110 aircraft and helicopters, according to RIA news agency.

The TU-22M3 is capable of carrying the Kh-22 anti-ship missile, which was designed by the Soviet Union to target U.S. warships and is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Russia’s military exercises began Monday and are scheduled to last until Saturday. The stated intent of the mobilization, according to Russian defense officials, is to evaluate Russia’s northern defenses and the capabilities of its Northern Fleet.

5) Russia Orders Surprise Test of Central Nuclear Base (Newsweek March 4, 2015)

The Russian armed forces’ strategic missile command (RVSN) have ordered a snap inspection of the state of the nuclear arsenal in one of the country’s central military bases near the city of Yoshkar-Ola.

The surprise test, announced today by RVSN, will assess the condition of the intercontinental ballistic and nuclear missile units, as well as test the readiness of the nuclear facilities near Yoshkar-Ola in hypothetical emergency situations.

“During the tests, specific attention will be paid to matters of the command’s preparedness to eliminate hazards in the event of an accident related to the nuclear weapons and also in the instance and it will test the emergency squad of the command,” Colonel Igor Yegorov, the RVSN spokesman, told press.

6) ‘Tanks? No thanks!’: Czechs unhappy about US military convoy crossing country (RT.com March 22)

Czech anti-war activists have launched the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ campaign to protest the procession of US Army hardware through the Eastern European country. They say it has been turned into a “provocative victory parade” near the Russian border.

The American military vehicles, which took part in NATO drills in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, plan to cross the territory of the Czech Republic between March 29 and April 1 on their way to a base in the German city of Vilseck.

The exercise, entitled the ‘Dragoon Ride,’ will involve over a hundred Stryker vehicles, which the US is expected to station in Europe, and will see the convoy stop in a new city every night. Last week, it was authorized by the Czech government, without any debate in the parliament, Pressenza news agency reported.

The US procession has been labeled “an unnecessary and dangerously provocative military maneuvers, which only increase international tension” on the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ page on Facebook.

7) Is Russia building a new supersonic aircraft? (news.com.au March 21)

ACCORDING to a Kremlin propaganda media outlet, Russia plans to be able to deploy its army anywhere in the world within seven hours. It’s a future that involves a fleet of huge heavy transport aircraft that will be capable of moving around 400 Armata tanks, with ammunition anywhere in the world.

According to the Military-Industrial Commission in Moscow, a new aircraft, named the PAK TA, will be capable of flying supersonic speeds (up to 1235km/h), can carry up to 200 tonnes and have a range of at least 7,000 kilometres. Or roughly the distance between Sydney and Hong Kong.

Russia is supposedly hopeful to build 80 of the new PAK TA cargo aircraft by 2024.

Woe to the average Russians whose resources will be rechanneled for the production of unproductive and destructive goods or instruments.

 

8) Russia's Vladimir Putin brandishes the nuclear option (CBC.ca March 17)

The Kremlin has hardly been secretive about its overall strategy. Two years ago it unveiled a new military doctrine of what it called asymmetrical warfare, in effect high-tech guerrilla fighting alongside unrelenting technological and propaganda offensives against smaller, less militarily able neighbours.

That so many in eastern Ukraine see themselves as victims of Kyiv and not of Moscow is testimony to the success of the propaganda offensive.

Along with the doctrine came a vast increase in Russia's military budget.

According to the World Bank, it stood at over four per cent of Russia's gross domestic product in 2014 and was due to climb by almost 25 per cent in 2015.

When it comes to its military, Russia far outspends its European neighbours and now even spends more than the U.S., at least when measured as a percentage of its GDP.

'No more illusions'

Putin has been equally open about his regime's goals.

After annexing Crimea in 2014, he delivered a triumphant speech saying the Kremlin reserved the right to intervene to protect and defend Russians wherever they lived.

Within weeks Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine had begun a military offensive, setting up Soviet-style local regimes with Soviet names — the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.

In the following months, according to Western intelligence, these rebels were heavily armed by Russia, which has also provided hundreds, if not thousands of troops.

The Putin doctrine simply thumbed its nose at two international agreements, the Helsinki accords of 1974 signed by Russia's predecessor state, the USSR, and the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, signed by Russia.

The first guaranteed the inviolability of all borders in Europe and the second specifically guaranteed Ukraine's borders and independence in return for handing over to Russia 1,900 Soviet-era nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.

Thanks in part to these Ukrainian weapons, Russia now has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, 8,400 warheads to the 7,500 controlled by the U.S.

While Putin unleashes psychological warfare, the Russian economy will suffer.

9) U.S. Squares Off With China Over North Korea Missile Defense (Bloomberg, March 22)

The U.S. and China are squaring off over deployment of an anti-missile system in South Korea, the latest source of tension between the world’s two biggest economies as they vie for influence in Asia.

The U.S. is considering placing a Thaad ballistic missile defense system in South Korea to counter improved North Korean weapon technology. A group of lawmakers from the ruling Saenuri party has also begun lobbying for South Korea to purchase the Lockheed Martin Corp. missile system directly. China fears the U.S. could use Thaad to target its missiles and has called on South Korea to reject deployment.

“How can we fight with a knife when North Korea is brandishing a gun?” Won Yoo Chul, a lawmaker who heads the ruling party’s policy-setting committee, said in a March 20 interview. “North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat is advancing by the day and China’s response over Thaad is excessive.”

The Thaad issue has left South Korean President Park Geun Hye caught between the U.S, which maintains more than 28,000 troops in the country to defend against North Korea, and China, its biggest trading partner and ally in efforts to resolve historical and territorial disputes with Japan. Mounting evidence that the Kim Jong Un regime has developed the ability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles is adding urgency to the debate.

More encirclement strategy by the US government that will provoke a response in China.

10) Indonesia's president says China has no legal claim to South China Sea: newspaper (Reuters, March 22)

Indonesian President Joko Widodo says China's claims to the majority of the South China Sea have "no legal foundation in international law," Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported.

The comments, in an interview published on Sunday ahead of visits to Japan and China this week, were the first time Widodo, who took office in October, has taken a position on the South China Sea dispute.

10) China Dominates the Scramble for the South China Sea (National Interest.org March 19)

Far from revisiting its assertive posturing in adjacent waters, China is seemingly determined to consolidate its position in the South China Sea at the expense of its smaller neighbors. The latest satellite imagery, released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, indicate extensive Chinese construction activities in highly contested areas, particularly the Spratly Islands, which have been actively claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Though Vietnam has occupied the greatest number of contested features in the Spratlys, China is the most capable, ambitious (and geographically distant) claimant in the area. Given the magnitude of the power asymmetry between Beijing and its Southeast Asian neighbors, China has the wherewithal to unilaterally dictate the tempo and trajectory of maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Despite being a relative late-comer, China has rapidly augmented its position, artificially transforming highly strategic features such as the Fiery Cross Reef, which has been enlarged to eleven times its original size.

The reef is a formidable military garrison, with up to two hundred Chinese troops stationed there. It is expected to host its own airstrip in the near future, a crucial prelude to what could become a de facto Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea. This would complement China’s ADIZ in the East China Sea, paving the way for China to dominate the skies above the entire first chain of islands in the western Pacific.

Beating the drums of nationalism to divert the public’s attention from deepening economic troubles?

11) U.S. Navy Urges Southeast Asian Patrols of South China Sea (Bloomberg, March 18)

The commander of the U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet called on Southeast Asian nations to form a combined maritime force to patrol areas of the South China Sea where territorial tensions flare with China.

Countries could streamline cooperation on maritime security while respecting sovereignty and coastal space, as in the case of counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, Vice Admiral Robert Thomas said Tuesday at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition in Malaysia.

The U.S. has reassured allies in the region it will back them against China’s assertions to about four-fifths of the sea. China has ratcheted up pressure on some Association of Southeast Asian Nations members, and has accelerated reclamation work on reefs in the waters criss-crossed by claims from Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia.

More business for the US military industrial complex at the expense of ASEAN's economies.

12) China's Military Can Beat The US In South China Sea And Diaoyu/Senkaku Island Conflicts: Poll (International Business Times, March 13)

Public confidence in China's military is higher than ever. According to a public opinion poll, an overwhelming majority of Chinese citizens think the People’s Liberation Army is capable of facing and beating the United States if it comes to that over various disputed islands and maritime territories.

According to a study by the Perth USAsia Center, a foreign policy think tank that focuses on the Indo-Pacific region, over 87 percent of those surveyed agreed that China’s military was already equipped to “retake” the Diaoyu Islands, a cluster of resource-rich islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkaku to the area's other claimants, the Japanese. Regarding potential military action in the South China Sea, where several Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei all dispute China’s territorial and maritime claims, the Chinese public still echo a sense of confidence, with 86 percent saying the PLA is capable of taking the area.

Incredible delusions. If there should be a war, then this will mean the end human civilization as we know of.

13) Islamic State Rises in Libya (FreeBeacon, March 20)

The Islamic State terrorist group is expanding its operations in Libya with high-profile attacks following the recent beheadings of 21 Christians, according to a State Department security report.

In Libya, Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIS or ISIL, formed out of existing al Qaeda-affiliated and Islamist extremist groups in early 2015. It is said to number between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters and has been exploiting the conflict between two Libyan groups fighting for control of the oil-rich North African state, Libya Dawn and Operation Dignity.

The Islamist and pro-al Qaeda Libya Dawn and the anti-Islamist Operation Dignity, headed by Lt Gen. Khalifa Haftar, have created rival parliaments and military forces and are said to receive foreign government support.

What happened to the supposed role by the US as 'policeman' of the world? Or has the ISIS--not only been a Frankenstein (a monster created by the US government)--but has really been an ally of the US? 

The more the global economy sinks, the greater the risk of an outbreak of societal upheaval via revolutions or war. Inflationism will entrench on such prospects.

Russia’s Collapsing Ruble is a Textbook Example of Fiat Inflation

Last February I noted that “Russia suffers from both property bubble fuelled by credit inflation and runaway local government debt”, such that a domestic turmoil had already been occurring even outside the current collapse of crude oil (which began last July) and sanctions imposed by Western nations. Economic sanctions came a month after. 

The Russian ruble has already been plagued by capital flight from residents rather than from foreigners. I warned too “The point worth repeating is that every conditions are unique and that there are no “line in the sand” or specific thresholds before a revulsion on domestic credit occurs”

Presently, as the ruble collapse continues, the average Russians have reportedly been concerned over the risks of  bank runs

At the Mises Blog, Carmen Elena Dorobăț lucidly explains the growing risk of what  I warned earlier as “revulsion on domestic credit” on Russia as textbook symptom of fiat inflation (bold mine)

In January 2014, 33 Russian rubles exchanged for one US dollar. In December 2014, the amount has more than doubled, reaching 77.2 rubles per dollar on December 16^th, a day some dubbed Russia’s Black Tuesday. Russian central bankers raised interest rates by 6.5% overnight, and spent $2 billion to stave off the depreciation. In total, propping up the currency has cost $10 billion since the beginning of the month, and $70 billion since the beginning of the year.

In spite of it all—or because of it all—Russia’s problems are far from over. Default looms closer, as its foreign (public and private) debt is estimated at around $600 billion, and foreign-currency reserves only at $300 billion. The government appealed to the public to be ‘calm and rational’, stressing the need to keep rubles and sell foreign currency. Russians did however go to buy more durable goods, such as cars and home appliances; and although there’s no flight into real goods yet, the tendency is forming in that direction.

The media, economists, and Putin himself blamed Western financial sanctions over the Ukraine conflict—together with other ‘nuisances’ such as oil prices—for Russia’s woes. Indeed, these factors precipitated the slide in purchasing power: sanctions made many local companies unable to refinance their dollar debts, and low oil prices drained some of Russia’s foreign currency reserves. With fewer (and more expensive) imports, rubles were spent and re-spent on domestic goods, where they bid up prices and led to double-digit inflation. But at the bottom of it lie, as you’d expect, mainly monetary factors. Over the last 16 years, the Bank of Russia’s balance sheet rose from about 9 billion rubles to 2.1 trillion this month (an all-time high), while monetary aggregates increased up to a factor of 30 over the same period. Part of the new money was printed to directly fund (military) industries or state-owned companies.

In this light, Russia’s case isn’t special, but just a textbook example of currency collapse due to fiat inflation. It resembles the more recent experiences in Argentina or Venezuela, as well as a possible future of the United States, if for some reason or another the dollar can no longer make its way into foreign (Chinese) bank vaults. But it is nevertheless an interesting development for two reasons. First, it shows just how important international central bank cooperation is for the inflationary policies of national governments. At the moment, Russia cannot rely on other monetary authorities to pressure their banking systems into rolling over its debts. Nor can it rely on an IMF loan, as it did in the 1998 emerging market crisis. Its tensioned political relations have left it alone to pick up the pieces of its reckless monetary policy.

Second, it would seem that both the media and the general public are most disillusioned with a government that loses control over the monetary system. As a result, this week has been perhaps the only time over the last year when Putin’s grip on power has been in doubt. It’s no surprise, however, given that in a world of fiat currencies, bank notes are only backed by other bank notes, and by a fickle, passing trust.

As I wrote below “Take away credit and liquidity, confidence dissipates which means that the whole structure collapses.” This applies not only to stocks but to the incumbent monetary system.

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Obama’s Commitment to Asia, ISIS’s gold standard, Syrian Hero Boy a Fake, and more…

1 A submarine intrusion on Swedish waters has been validated, claims the Swedish government. Mystery mini-sub vindicates Swedish navy Financial Times Blog, November 14, 2014. Yet could the sighting have been instead the Nessie (Loch Ness Monster) gone astray? (pun intended)

2 Possibly stunned by the unfortunate encounter in the Black Sea, the US parades modern hardware : US Navy deploys laser weapon to Persian Gulf for first-ever combat mission RT.com November 14, 2014.

3 'World’s only superpower' pledges 'ironclad commitment' to Asia Pacific at G20 summit RT.com November 14, 2014.

​Washington's allies in the Asia Pacific can transform the region into a better place if threats like ISIS, Ebola, and "aggressive Russia" are contained – and this can be done with America's leadership, US President Barack Obama told Australian students.

How valid is the POTUS commitment, when the US government has been fighting multiple wars around the world simultaneously?

4 More of Russia’s military caper; NATO Jets Intercept Russia Military Plane Over Baltics Bloomberg.com November 14, 2014

5 And this too... Russia And Serbia Conducted A Spectacular Military Drill Today, Just Miles From NATO Ground Business Insider November 14, 2014

6 It’s ok for the US and allies to intervene in Ukraine politics but the same does not hold true for Putin: G20: David Cameron warns Russia of more Ukraine sanctions BBC.com November 15, 2014

7 Why the absence of the downing of MH17 in western media? Has it been because evidence have been turning against previous claims? : Russia claims this satellite image shows moment flight MH17 was shot down by fighter jet Mirror.co.uk November 14, 2014

8 More Big stick strategy by the Chinese government? :China's New Submarine-Hunting Ship Shows How Beijing Is Countering The US Pivot To The Pacific Business Insider November 13, 2014

9 ISIS wants to reintroduce gold coin standard?: Now ISIS wants to introduce its own currency: Plans to bring back solid gold and silver dinar coins announced in Iraqi mosques November 10, 2014 

...or has this been part of the CIA plot?

10 conflicting reports. Has the ISIS been in control or have they been losing, which to believe? : US Airstrikes Not Slowing ISIS Campaign in Iraq: Jane’s Antiwar.com November 15, 2014 or Isis: the Kurds strike back - Iraqi army retakes control of oil refinery town as Kurds stand firm against overstretched Islamic State Independent.co.uk November 15, 2014

11 ISIS gains new ally: AP sources: IS, al-Qaida reach accord in Syria November 14, 2014

12 French government in a quandary; to deliver or not to deliver on military hardware to Russia? :  France hits back after Russia warns of Mistral compensation Reuters.com November 14, 2014 

13 Propaganda to justify interventions? : Syria ‘Hero Boy’ Video Revealed to be Government Propaganda Lewrockwell.com November 14, 2014

Writes Daniel Adams

One problem: the whole thing was a fake. The Norweigan Film Institute, funded by the government of NATO-member Norway, chipped in $30,000 for the film to be produced in Malta and released publicly without informing viewers that it was not authentic footage.

The filmmakers made it clear to the Norwegian government in their funding application that they would not reveal that the footage was fake and authorities raised no objection to the operation.

The BBC wrote about how so many people were fooled by the film:

"So once the film was made, how did it go viral? “It was posted to our YouTube account a few weeks ago but the algorithm told us it was not going to trend,” Klevberg said. “So we deleted that and re-posted it.” The filmmakers say they added the word “hero” to the new headline and tried to send it out to people on Twitter to start a conversation."

By the time its in authenticity had been established, millions were outraged at the Assad government. Propaganda depends on framing the issue first. No one reads corrections once a false story is printed.

Geopolitical risk theater links: Russian Bomber Flights near US shores, NATO: Russian troops cross Ukraine Border, US $ Costs of ISIS war and more…

Dear email subscribers, the following posts won’t be included in your mailbox today:

-China’s Stock Market Massaging: Hong Kong to Scrap Yuan Conversion Limit

-G20 to institutionalize Bank Bail-Ins?

An update on geopolitical developments:

1 Brinkmanship geopolitics continues as Russia plans long-range bomber flights near U.S. shores CNN.com November 13, 2014

Russia plans to send long-range bombers to patrol the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the nation's defense minister said, amid escalating tensions with the West over Ukraine.

The patrols, which would also include the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, would bring the flights close to the United States' territorial waters.

The move is in response to a growing international resentment against Russia, defense minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday.

Just ONE mis-encounter is all it takes for an escalation...nuclear exchange?

2 As the US and China firmed up some deals, Chinese hack U.S. weather systems, satellite network November 12, 2014. Will the deal end the mutual hacking?

3 Putin’s mighty escorts: Russian Warships Head to Australia Ahead of G20 Summit Newsweek.com November 12, 2014

4 NATO itching for a fight? : Ukraine crisis: Russian troops crossed border, Nato says BBC.com November 12, 2014

5 More financial and economic burden for US taxpayers for a war that has little or nothing to do with US interests. Nonetheless US politicians, and bureaucracy military industrial complex cheers on more the prospects of monetary largesse, again charged to the taxpayers: $300,000 an Hour: The Cost of Fighting ISIS The Atlantic November 12, 2014

An excerpt

It's been 96 days since the United States launched its first airstrikes against ISIS militants in Iraq; 50 since it expanded that campaign into Syria. And on each one of those days, the U.S. government has spent an average of roughly $8 million, or more than $300,000 an hour, on the operation against the Sunni Muslim extremist group, according to Pentagon officials.

That's a trivial sum compared with the more than $200 million the U.S. pours each day into its 13-year war in Afghanistan (the National Priorities Project, which advocates for budget transparency, estimates that the U.S. has now spent more than $1.5 trillion on its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and against ISIS, since 2001). But the bean-counting matters, because the place values and line items offer clues to understanding the military offensive President Obama has committed the country to—and now asked Congress to bless.

5 Can’t beat the foe? Use the ISIS as an excuse to topple Syria’s Assad: Obama now admits Assad MUST go before ISIS can be defeated: President plans to focus on Syria and ousting brutal dictator as he tries to beat back terror group November 13, 2014

6 Will people learn from the history of wars? :Graph of world wars by number of dead and duration of conflict shows how war is very much not behind us Independent.co.uk November 11, 2014

I don’t think so.

7 US has spent so much for warfare, yet a recent encounter with Russian aircraft may have exposed some of  their vulnerabilities: What frightened the USS Donald Cook so much in the Black Sea? Voltairenet.org November 8, 2014

The US destroyer is equipped with the most recent Aegis Combat System. It is an integrated naval weapons systems which can link together the missile defense systems of all vessels embedded within the same network, so as to ensure the detection, tracking and destruction of hundreds of targets at the same time. In addition, the USS Donald Cook is equipped with 4 large radars, whose power is comparable to that of several stations. For protection, it carries more than fifty anti-aircraft missiles of various types.

Meanwhile, the Russian Su-24 that buzzed the USS Donald Cook carried neither bombs nor missiles but only a basket mounted under the fuselage, which, according to the Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta , contained a Russian electronic warfare device called Khibiny.

As the Russian jet approached the US vessel, the electronic device disabled all radars, control circuits, systems, information transmission, etc. on board the US destroyer. In other words, the all-powerful Aegis system, now hooked up - or about to be - with the defense systems installed on NATO’s most modern ships was shut down, as turning off the TV set with the remote control.

The Russian Su-24 then simulated a missile attack against the USS Donald Cook, which was left literally deaf and blind. As if carrying out a training exercise, the Russian aircraft - unarmed - repeated the same maneuver 12 times before flying away

Hmmm

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Brazil Eludes NSA, China’s Newest Foreign Policy, the Ulfkotte-effect, Gorbachev warns Europe and More…

1 Distrust on US interventionism growing?: Brazil builds its own fiber optic network to avoid the NSA. Sovereign Man November 11, 2014

Writes Simon Black:

This past week Brazil announced that it will be building a 3,500-mile fiber-optic cable to Portugal in order to avoid the grip of the NSA.

What’s more, they announced that not a penny of the $185 million expected to be spent on the project will go to American firms, simply because they don’t want to take any chances that the US government will tap the system.

It’s incredible how far now individuals, corporations, and even governments are willing to go to protect themselves from the government of the Land of the Free.

The German government, especially upset by the discovery of US spying within its borders, has come up with a range of unique methods to block out prying ears.

They have even gone so far as to play classical music loudly over official meetings so as to obfuscate the conversation for any outside listeners.

They’ve also seriously contemplated the idea of returning back to typewriters to eliminate the possibilities of computer surveillance.

More practically, the government of Brazil has banned the use of Microsoft technologies in all government offices, something that was also done in China earlier this year.

The Red, White, and Blue Scare has now replaced the Red Scare of the Cold War era. And it comes at serious cost.

2 As I have been saying here, anti corruption campaings have usually been euphemism for or disguise on political persecution: U.S. Reports Signs of Division within Beijing Leadership Freebeacon.com November 11, 2014

Signs of a serious division within the ruling Communist Party of China are emerging over a crackdown on corruption led by current leader Xi Jinping, according to a recent U.S. intelligence report on the division.

The political rift is being linked to a nationwide anti-corruption drive launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and to differences among top leaders over the purge of several of China’s most senior leaders who held posts at senior Party levels that in the past were immune to such crackdowns.

Corruption in China—bribery, graft, and abuse of power—remains a key feature of the reform communist system in place since the 1980s.

The recent unclassified intelligence report circulated within the U.S. government disclosed that the leadership rift is linked to the case against Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-person collective dictatorship that rules China.

3 The military industrial complex and the neocon Republicans will surely disrupt: US, China Hope To Avert "Military Confrontation" Zero Hedge.com November 11, 2014 

4 PhotoOp or lasting peace? China's Xi, Japan's Abe hold landmark meeting Reuters.com November 10, 2014

5 China’s new strategy: TRADE and INVESTMENTs Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. 'Pivot' to Asia Bloomberg.com November 10, 2014

Speaking to executives at a CEO gathering in Beijing, Xi outlined how much the world stands to gain from a rising China. He said outbound investment will total $1.25 trillion over the next 10 years, 500 million Chinese tourists will go abroad, and the government will spend $40 billion to revive the ancient Silk Road trade route between Asia and Europe.

6 Bastiat’s law: If goods don’t cross borders, armies will. Has Asia’s peace pact with China been sealed? Yahoo.com China wins support for Asia-Pacific trade proposal November 12, 2014 

7 Could the Chinese government be a closet fan of former US president Theodore Roosevelt whose foreign policy was based on “speak softly, and carry a big stick”? : China Shows Off New Stealth Fighter to U.S. Military Bloomberg.com November 12, 2014

8 More signs of Big Stick foreign policies: Researchers Detail a Spike in NATO-Russia Close Calls New York Times November 10, 2014.

9 As China extends peace, US-Russia spat continues In China, Obama spars with Putin on Ukraine Politico.com November 11, 2014

10 One of the most politically influential think tank the Council of Foreign Relations showcases The Russian Military November 11, 2014

11 Ukraine violence flares as ceasefire collapses CNN.com November 11, 2014. Related Ukraine Digs In to Keep Donetsk Airport From Rebels Wall Street Journal November 11, 2014

12 Fact or Propaganda? Thousands of Putin’s Troops Now in Ukraine, Analysts Say Daily Beast November 11, 2014

13 Injured after airstrike Fate of ISIS leader still unknown CBSNews.com November 11, 2014

14 Fact or Spin? : ISIS Boot Camp Syria: Children as Young as 10 Forced to Behead Syrian Soldiers International Business Times India November 12, 2014

15 More Signs of expansionary US imperialism? US Sponsored “Regime Change” in Burkina Faso? Coup Leader Trained by Pentagon  Lt. Col. Yocouba Isaac Zida follows pattern of other military officers who enter politics Global Research November 11, 2014

16 Mainstream media being dumped for being bought by the CIA? News Report from Russia Insider Lew Rockwell.com November 11, 2014

An excerpt from former assistant secretary of US treasury and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal Paul Craig Roberts

Germans Abandon Major News Sites in Anger Over Slanted Russia CoverageTriggered by reader disaffection, internet traffic has collapsed for half a dozen major German media websites

What’s going on in the German media is huge. It is one of the most popular subjects on our site.  The US and UK media have been hugely biased in their coverage of Russia, but German media has been far, far, worse, to the point which strains credulity.

Now it turns out that part of the reason is CIA fiddling with German media outlets.  Coming on the heels of the Snowden revelations, this has Germans seriously ticked-off.  Here’s the latest revelation from our correspondent in Germany.

They call it the Ulfkotte-effect. And it’s beginning to resemble an avalanche.

17 Former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev warns on Europe: Europe may become irrelevant due to short-sighted policies – Gorbachev RT.com November 8, 2014

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links—Ukraine Elections, Nato’s Claim: Russian Troop Build Up, Unraveling US Strategy versus ISIS? and more…

Updates on the geopolitical risk theater

1 Ukraine crisis: President Poroshenko's threat after rebel polls, BBC.com November 4, 2014

US double standard on Ukraine...2 Daniel McAdams In Ukraine, A Tale of Two Elections Ron Paul Institute November 1, 2014

The US government loves to “promote democracy” overseas, often at the barrel of a gun. Strangely enough, however, it often “deplores” actual elections being held in such places. Take Ukraine, for example. An election held last week by a group that forcibly seized power from a legitimately-elected government was hailed by the US administration as a great democratic achievement…

However in eastern Ukraine, which refused to recognize February’s US-backed coup in the western part of the country, parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for tomorrow are scorned and even “deplored” by the US administration.

3 NATO: Russia Moves Troops Closer To Ukraine Border Reuters.com November 4, 2014

Russia has moved troops closer to the border with Ukraine and continues to support rebels in the country's east, NATO's chief said on Tuesday, after an election held by the pro-Russian separatists and condemned by Kiev and Western leaders.

Ukraine's president said Sunday's vote flouted terms of a plan to end a war that has killed more than 4,000 people, and that newly formed army units would be sent to defend a string of eastern cities against a possible new rebel offensive.

4 Russia snubs nuclear security meeting Guardian.com November 4, 2014

5 Russia test-fires Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile November 1, 2014

6 The Secret Life of an ISIS Warlord Daily Beast October 27, 2014

Abu Omar al-Shishani has a fierce, gorgeous Chechen bride. He learned intelligence operations from the U.S. And his older brother may be the real genius of ISIS.

7. Iraq Confirms ISIS Massacre of Sunni Tribe Time.com November 4, 2014

8 Inside Kobane: First pictures from the Syrian front line battle between Kurds and Islamists emerge after ISIS reveal images of their fighters within the city Daily Mail November 4, 2014

Despite superior airpower… 9. Pentagon denies US strategy to defeat Isis is unravelling Guardian.com November 4, 2014

The Pentagon has denied that the US strategy against Islamic State (Isis) is in disarray after a series of setbacks as the war known as Operation Inherent Resolve stretches into its fourth month.

10 Russia Weaponizes The Arctic: Will Build 13 Airfields And 10 Radar Stations To Meet "Unwelcome Guests" Zero Hedge October 27, 2014

11 Al-Qaeda reportedly seizes US anti-tank rockets after defeating rival Syrian rebels RT.com November 3, 2014

12 China unveils anti-drone laser weapon able to shoot down 'small aircraft' within 5 seconds RT.com November 3, 2014 (bold mine)

China has developed and successfully tested a highly accurate laser defense system against light drones. The homemade machine boasts a two-kilometer range and can down "various small aircraft" within five seconds of locating its target.

Boasting high speed, great precision and low noise, the system is aimed at destroying unmanned, small-scale drones flying under an altitude of 500 meters and at speeds below 50 meters per second, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing a statement by one of the developers, the China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP).

13 Even the Portuguese Air Force has intercepted and photographed Russian bombers wandering across Europe Aviationist November 2, 2014

14 Why are two Russian Il-78 Midas tankers deployed to Egypt? Are Moscow’s bombers heading to the Mediterranean Sea? Aviationist November 3, 2014

Was it just a practice for future missions or perhaps the Russians are intending to route Tu-95MS Bear Hs into the Mediterranean?

If so, maybe we are going to see some shots of the Russian bombers as those taken by the Italian air force pilots during their Cold War intercepts.

15 Iran: U.S. Is Still ‘Number One Enemy Freebeacon.com November 2, 2014

The United States remains “the great Satan” and Iran’s “number one enemy,” Iranian military and defense officials said over the weekend in statements that also called for “the prosecution, trial, and punishment of the White House.”

The inflammatory comments, released over the weekend by Iran’s Defense Ministry and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), come as nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran reach a critical juncture.

Has the Ukraine gov’t strike at Russian convoys been real or merely a propaganda?

In war, truth is the first casualty—a popular quote misattributed to Greek playwright Aeschylus 

The Ukraine government declared that they hit Russian targets just a few hours back.

Ironically, the Russian government denies this.

From the Wire.com

Ukrainian forces claim to have attacked and destroyed a Russian military convoy that crossed the border into Ukraine during the evening on Friday. President Petro Poroshenko disclosed the event during a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, before announcing the news on his official website.

A statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry also confirmed that the strike had taken place, but they conveyed a more aggrieved tone and denied that anything was destroyed. They also deny that Russian vehicles even crossed the border into Ukraine, and say the incursion was on their side of the border. Ukrainian customs officials have gone across the border to inspect the convoy, but reports say the trucks are mostly empty.

So who’s been lying?

The Zero Hedge has more… (bold and italics original)

While today's trading session was marked by news which at first blush correlated with what may be the 2014 equivalent of the Archduke Ferdinand shooting, in retrospect the newsflow made painfully little sense. Let's recap:

1. Yesterday afternoon, two UK reporters working for the Guardian and Telegraph, supposedly located by the border in east Ukraine, reported that they were "eyewitnesses" as a convoy of military trucks crossed the Russian border into the breakaway Donetsk republic, aka Ukraine. While there have been photos of the military trucks that have accompanied the Russian humantiarian convoy on Russian territory, there has so far been no proof, aside from said eyewitness reports, confirming Russian military vehicles entered or were in Ukraine.
2. This morning Ukraine military’s spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, shocked the world when newswires reported that Ukraine forces had attacked an armed convoy from Russia, and "destroyed" a part of it. This was subsequently reiterated by the president of Ukraine himself who said that "the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of that machines had been eliminated by the Ukrainian artillery at night", and by the secretary-general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who said that the alliance had detected an “incursion” of vehicles from Russia last night, adding that “what we have seen last night is the continuation of what we have seen for some time." Alas, as in the case above, just more verbal reports, with zero actual evidence.
3. Shortly thereafter, Russia responded when the Russian defense ministry said that there was no Russian military column that crossed into Eastern Ukraine, and that the above reports are based on "some fantasies."

This is where the breakdown of logic occurs, because for Russia to make such a formal statement it clearly implies that Russia believes there is no evidence of destruction of a Russian convoy in Ukraine territory, something which obviously would exist if indeed as Ukraine's president had claimed, the "majority of the machines had been eliminated."

If true, it also implies that either Ukraine had fabricated the entire story, and certainly the part about the destruction of the convoy and by extension that Russians had ever entered into East Ukraine. Furthermore, that would also suggest that the reports of the British reporters were also a fabrication.

Unless, of course, there is evidence, in which case the credibility of the both the Guardian and Telegraph reporters can be preserved, Ukraine can not be accused of fabricating a story to suit what some may say its own warmongering ambitions, and the onus is on Russia to explain why it lied about there being no invasion.

More to the point, the onus is on Ukraine to present some evidence, in fact any evidence, of a destroyed Russian military convoy instead of merely building upon a story conceived by the two UK media outlets, because if Ukraine indeed has no evidence, then its story falls apart and what's worse, the credibility and reputation of its government, of NATO and certainly of the UK press would be in tatters.

So what other possibility is there? Well, one that is all too unpalatable for Ukraine, namely that in its excitement to blow something up, it may have well destroyed some of its own military vehicles. A possible lead to such a turn of events comes from this Interfax report citing the leadership of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic.

The leadership of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic has dismissed the Ukrainian government's statement on destroying a convoy of what appeared to be Russian armored vehicles in eastern Ukraine.

"We haven't received any armored vehicles from Russia. No Russian units, including Russian armored vehicles, have crossed the border. Hence, no Russian armored vehicles could have been destroyed," DPR First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Purgin told Interfax on Friday evening.

Purgin claimed that, on the contrary, the militias destroyed about 100 Ukrainian armored vehicles.

"A lot of Ukrainian armored vehicles were destroyed today, 7 at one place, 12 at another. And the same all over the DPR territory. A total of about 100 of them," Purgin said.

The implication is clear: while 100 or so Ukraine armored vehicles may or may not have been destroyed, one wonders if indeed the Ukraine army was responsible in "aiding" the separatists with what would appear to be a friendly-fire incident?

But perhaps the most damning evidence comes from none other than the White House itself, which according to CNN just admitted that while it accuses Moscow of "incursions" it can't confirm the convoy was destroyed by Kiev. 

Russia Flaunts Nuclear Arms Capability...as Deterrent?

In World War I, the Maginot Line has been emblematic of a failed military strategy which was once proven effective. This has been characterized by the adage, “generals always fight the last war, especially if they have won it” 

And I have been saying, any confrontation involving major powers will likely involve using new or modern technology built armaments: nuclear weapons. 

Governments comprise a select group of politically mandated people authorized to use force. In combat, particularly with external forces, where the goal is to subjugate or defeat the opponent, governments with access to deadly weapons will likely choose to use them to reach such objective. Thus instead of conventional warfare, the risks of future wars will be one of nuclear exchanges.

The escalating stalemate in Ukraine has prompted Russia to flex her nuclear muscles against the West with a showcase of her nuclear capabilities

First a test launch of ICBM missiles...

From RiaNovosti 

Russia’s strategic missile forces test launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during a training exercise on Thursday under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin.

The RS-12M Topol ICBM was launched from the country's northern Plesetsk space center.

Prelaunch operations and the launch and flight of the missile followed a strictly planned procedure. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the missile struck the practice target at the Kura ballistic range in the country’s Far East within the prescribed accuracy.

On Thursday, President Putin as Russia’s commander-in-chief held a planned training exercise of the armed forces. The presidents of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member countries – Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – observed the training process at the national defense control center.

Next the following video shows how Russia is “NOT” preparing for a nuclear war (hat tip zero hedge) 

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This seems like a reprise of the Cold War...yet increases the risks of World War III. 

Nuclear Weapons: Who has what? ... according to the CNN

No worries, stocks will continue to soar.