Quote of the Day: The Texas Boom Bust Oil Economy

Writes analyst Wolf Richter at the Wolfstreet.com

This money was drilled into the ground. It was used to build office towers for the booming energy sector and everything that came along with it, such as law firms and engineering firms. It was used to build apartment towers. It drove technology forward and funded innovation. It bought equipment. It fed manufacturers that supplied the oil industry. It paid for the construction of hotels and temporary housing for oil workers even in small towns….

And along the way, the money paid for wages, salaries, bonuses, and royalties, and folks went out and spent this money.

The state government was ecstatic with this influx of cash. Retailers were even more ecstatic and opened new stores. Mall owners were happy. Banks bathed in bliss and extended huge loans to drive this miracle to the next level. Consumers were expressing their happiness by feeding retail profits and state coffers alike.

Retail sales recycled the money and contributed to the strong Texas economy. Everything went right – until the price of oil plunged.

Now oil and gas companies are going bankrupt. Manufacturers and service providers that supply the oil and gas industry are sinking into the mire. People are getting laid off, from retail workers to high-level engineers in the energy sector. And sagging retail sales indicate that these folks, and others around them, are closing their wallet or that they’ve maxed out their credit cards after losing their jobs.

Tax collections on motor vehicle sales and rentals had experienced an even greater boom. From the first half of 2010 to the first half of 2015, they’d soared 65%! Car dealers were on cloud nine! But that boom too is now imploding, with tax collections in January for December sales dropping 3.8% year over year!

And commercial real estate is getting hit. Debt is everything in the sector. So this is going to be a problem for banks. The entire math is based on high rental rates and low vacancy rates. But in Houston, rental rates are falling and vacancy rates are skyrocketing. Sublease space has spiked 69% and continues “to sit on the market,” even while new towers are being completed. “See-through buildings” are re-appearing — that infamous phenomenon of vacant and transparent buildings dotting Houston’s business district during the last oil bust. So watch the banks. 

A Case Of Economic Freedom: Texas

Texas, the second largest US state next to California (in terms of GDP), has benefited from low taxes and low government spending (measure of government intervention) that has translated to economic resiliency even during the recent recession.

This from analyst Martin Spring: (bold emphasis mine)

``Interesting to see how successful the US state of Texas has been through policies such as cutting public spending, cutting taxes and implementing tort reform (limiting the damages courts may award in product, medical and similar liability cases).

``Texas has no state taxes on income or capital gains – yet it continues to run a budget surplus despite the recession.

``Between 2000 and 2007, more than half-a-million people moved into Texas, compared to the 1.2 million who exited notoriously high-taxed California.

``Last year Texas created more jobs than all the other 49 states combined – 70 per cent of net new jobs of the entire nation."

This from Bruce Kellison of IC² Institute (University of Texas)

``The real story behind the jump in GNP, then, might not be the dependency of consumers on government programs like “Cash for Clunkers” and the first-time home buyers’ tax credit, but the resiliency of firms to remain innovative, nimble, and competitive in a still-globalized economy. Texas was among the last states to feel the effects of the current recession, and many economists believe it will lag in recovery. But exports might mean Texas will lead, not lag, coming out of the recession." (bold highlights mine)

Some research sites for Texas: Tax Foundation.org, Texas Policy.com, Nelson Rockefeller.org