The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate hut at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups—Henry Hazlitt
Showing posts with label video interview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label video interview. Show all posts
In the following interview with Heritage’s Steve Moore, Professor Williams explains the unseen consequences of the minimum wage law, for instance, how why the mandate discriminates against low-skill or "non-preferred workers"
Interesting comments by a US retired four-star general and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Westley Clark on CNN who says that the the jihadist rebel group ISIS was "funded by friends and allies" of America "to fight Hezbollah", and whose recruits have been "zealots and religious fundamentalists", thereby creating a "Frankenstein".
Gloom Bloom & Doom publisher Dr. Marc Faber shares some very interesting insights on China and on Russia’s Putin in the following video interview with Bloomberg.
With regards to China’s deflating colossal bubble and statistical inconsistencies (transcript from Zero hedge) [bold mine]
...we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated and will bring about problems in the real estate market and among some major players in the commodity markets as well. So overall, if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China’s trading partners are reporting.
So if you look at the figures of China, exports are still growing. If you look at the trade figures China exports to Taiwan, so China records exports of so and so much. The Taiwan report imports from China at a much lower level. So which figures are more reliable? I think the figures of the trading partners of China are more reliable. And they would suggest that growth has slown down considerably.
Well deflating bubble and a slowing economy has not been surprising to us.
More on the reliability of statistical data....
Governments will always publish the statistics that they wish to show irrespective whether that is in China or in other countries. Governments control basically the statistical offices, so they can show whatever they want. As Stalin said, it’s not important who votes but who counts the votes. And the government counts the statistics.
Now the kicker: A lot of funny deals in China’s trade financing…
...the fact is simply that Chinese stocks have been just about the worst performing stocks since 2006. Now analysts will dismiss that and say everything is perfect in China, but the stock market does not seem to believe everything that the government is saying about the economy. And clearly there are strength signs in the Chinese economy. In particular, as I said, we have this huge explosion of debt. Debt as a percent of GDP has increased in the last five years by more than 50 percent. Total debt is now over 215 percent of GDP, and a lot of it is trade finance that is being rolled over.
In addition to that, there are lots of funny deals. A friend of mine who analyzes China very carefully, Simon Hunt (ph), he pointed out that trade finance between one state-owned enterprise and a private company has amounted to over $5 trillion by continuing to roll over the same collateral several times. There’s lots of funny things that are happening in China. And when the wholething unwinds it will be a disaster.
This looks like "Rehypothecation" which Investopedia.com defines as “The practice by banks and brokers of using, for their own purposes, assets that have been posted as collateral by their clients.” In other words, perhaps a lot of the trading finance debt has very little or even no collateral supporting them.
On Putin’s action at Crimea
Mr. Putin did the right thing from his perspective. We have to look – put ourselves into his shoes. He did absolutely the right thing at the right time.
...By that I mean that there was interference by foreign powers in Ukrainian politics that were unfavorably from the perspective of Russia.
...The Crimea is strategically most important for Russia. It has practically no meaning strategically to the United States or to Europe. But for Russia it’s very important. I don’t think that Russia will move further into Ukraine unless there is serious provocation. But I doubt it will happen. But I think the wider implication is that we have now border lines. In other words, the US would intervene if a foreign power would establish bases in Haiti and in Cuba and so forth and so on, and the Chinese will react if foreign powers threaten Chinese access to resources.
Possible implications…
This is very important because the occupation or say the referendum (ph) in Crimea and Crimea moving to Russia gives essentially a signal to China that one day they can also move and seize some territory that they perceive that belongs to them.
This could also extrapolate to greater risks of real military conflicts surrounding territorial disputes.
In the following video interview by CNBC my indirect investing mentor Dr. Marc Faber, the Swiss fund manager and publisher of the 'Gloom, Boom and Doom Report thinks that browbeaten markets may stage an oversold bounce. (ht: lewrockwell.com)
He also thinks that the US equity markets will fall soon:
I think the high was 1,687 on May 22nd and will go down 20-30%
He also warns of a likely contagion on EM markets premised on what a sees as a slowdown or even a "no growth" in China's economy.
Dr. Faber thinks that China has a "massive" credit bubble.
Amusingly he even lectures media talking heads
I would listen to the markets. I mean, look, some emerging markets have
tumbled by 20-30% since their highs earlier this year, some have
dropped 20% in 3 weeks...I would listen to that and not sit there and say everything is fine.
Same goes here, one-two day rebound and "everything is fine" Dr. Faber remains bullish on gold, even if he thinks that gold prices may go lower for 2 reasons: Commercials (professionals) have a very short exposure on gold, and that the cost of production has gone up dramatically.
Dr. Faber's has a good advise which I share:
I think as an investor you need discipline and patience, and I think the best course of action is to actually not buy anything, but rather to reduce positions on a rebound
In the following video, Goldmoney’s Andy Duncan interviews, one of my favorite investing savant, Doug Casey.
At the final minutes, Doug Casey predicts that “There will be many bubbles created in the years to come especially bubbles that has been created by trillions of dollars”, which will filter over or permeate to different parts in the economy and to the world.
Importantly Mr. Casey notes (28: 04)
"Right now, we are living in the middle of the biggest bubble in history and when this bubble burst it’s going to be a catastrophe for most people"
[Yes, I agree, all one needs to is to see how bubbles have morphed into a mental pandemic as the public's addiction to artificial booms have seemingly become deeply entrenched. Hardly any thoughts have been given to possible adverse consequences or myriad risks from all the cumulative inflationism and interventionism implemented by global central banks and their respective political authorities, including the BSP and the Philippine government]
Mr. Casey point outs that bonds are right now at the peak of the bubble cycle (a view which I have been saying) and further predicts a coming bubble on gold stocks, particularly Gold exploration stock.
The great Austrian economist and Nobel laureate Friedrich A von Hayek in a discussion with Firing Line host William F Buckley Jr. and George Roche III (Hillsdale College) on Social Justice (source LibertyPen, hat tip Mises Blog)
Hayek (5:06)
There are no possible rewards of a just distribution in a system where the distribution is not deliberately the result of people bringing it about. Justice is an attribute of individual action. I can be just or unjust toward my fellow man. But the conception of a social justice to expect from an impersonal process with nobody can control to bring about a just result, is not only a meaningless conception, it’s completely impossible. You see everybody talks about social justice, but if you press people to explain to you what they mean by social justice…what to accept as social justice, nobody knows.
In the following telephone interview by CNBC, Congressman Ron Paul says that he won't be endorsing Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney.
Mr. Paul's caustic remarks on both candidates:
Neither one of them has the vaguest idea what Austrian free-market hard-money economics is all about. But at the same time they know how to play the game and they represent a one party system…
There is essentially no difference between one administration and another, no matter what the platform.
The legendary investor Jim Rogers recently interviewed by the Reuters. (courtesy of JimRogersChannel).
Some interesting highlights:
-EU rescue will “absolutely not” work. -I’m very worried about 2013, more worried about EU in 2014 -I’m worried about "everybody" in 2013 -US has recession every 4-6 years; 2013 is after elections and between 4-6 years, so US will have a slowdown on 2013 -Next time there will be a US slowdown, the problem will be a whole lot worst -Recession is coming and it’s gonna be worse -Raising taxes will make things worst, US needs to cut spending “with a chainsaw”. -US should be cutting taxes and spending -China has been trying to slowdown the economy for three years; by design, by purpose -Problems in US and America in 2013: When two of the world’s largest economy is having problems, everyone will get affected -I don’t know anything "safe" -Generally short stocks, long commodities. -Owns Swiss franc, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan -Interested in agriculture -Owns gold and would buy more gold when prices fall -Can’t "conceive" of the current prices of technology stocks -"Most exciting thing I know is Myanmar" (like China in 1979) -North Korea is going to merge with South Korea in next 5 years.
There are three investors whom I like to emulate, they are Dr. Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Doug Casey. Their common denominator are that they are staunchly free market advocates and are global citizens.
The two videos below are interviews with Doug Casey which had been recently held in Canada.
-The importance of clear definition of terms -Understand counterparty risks -Understand and take contrarian position -Expanding one’s knowledge horizon by investigating beyond the topic interests by reading further. In short take a comprehensive research on areas of interests -Doug says “I’d rather be lucky than smart”, he also says “make your own luck” (I’d say this resembles Nassim Taleb’s black swan theory) -Diversify internationally -He likes Thailand but sees the country as not friendly to immigrants -Doug says "You don’t want be a resident anywhere", which means we should be responsive to political risks
Some notes of the interview: -Doug is a long term bear of Europe largely due to the popular destructive ideas of statism -Despite the rhetoric, in the political spectrum both the leftist and rightist camp disdain social and economic freedom -The US international reserve status is crumbling: Dam is breaking -Blocking or cutting Iran out of the SWIFT system (using the US dollar for its oil trades) only gives the incentive for nations to shift out of the US dollar trade. -The world will go back to gold. -Monetary reforms could mean gold will be used as currency for international trading but domestic economies will remain fiat based -Gold is not an investment, gold is money -US elections: No discernible difference between two candidates, both are statist -Major asset of Canada’s central bank is the US dollar, thus, what happens to the US dollar will affect the Canadian dollar. Doug says “The best thing about Canada is that Canada is not the US” -Doug encourages people anew to be flexible in terms of living. He says that we should not adapt the "medieval peasant attitude" of being a "vegetable" (sticking to a single place), as the “vegetable" outlook is not a good survival strategy -Doug says he likes to be paid for a high standard of living. -Doug is ambivalent on commodities over the long term, because longest bearmarket in history is in commodities. This is largely due to the advancement in technology. -Mining is a risky business. Legal, environmental and industrial costs are as expensive as mining engineers -Government and environmentalists sees mining as a cow to milk -Everybody hates mining -Gold stocks are speculative -Though bearish long term he endorses buying on gold and silver -He says that there will be bubbles in different markets around the world (I agree, ASEAN is one) -Gold might become a bubble -Mining stocks could also become a bubble -Doug believes in the cattle (and agricultural) business -Doug thinks that the over expanded financial industry is bound for a collapse -Like Jim Rogers, he thinks that farmers will become millionaires while financial executives will become paupers.
Interesting insights from Dr. Marc Faber's interview with the CNBC (hat tip Zero Hedge). Below are my notes:
-Germany will issue Eurobonds. Quality of euro will diminish
-Euro is oversold, potential to rebound along with stock market for the short term -People are focusing excessively on Euro while ignoring the rest like India and China
[my comment: very true.] -Danger level—any outright default by any countries. Better to take losses now than to wait for the risk of “gigantic systemic failure” -Market will be relieved if Greece exited the Eurozone. There would be some clarity. It wouldn’t be good for bank and financial shares. The markets are oversold and on exit of Greece, I think markets would rally
[my comment:
Indeed. People hardly realize that the banking system is NOT the economy as mainstream pundits would have it.
This will especially be true, if reforms would allow for greater economic freedom, which would allow parties to fill in the void. For instance, Walmart's application for bank license was turned down from opposition by big banks, unions and etc...] -More and more stocks are breaking down around the world. He says that this means many economies are likely to weaken. We might see “some asset deflation” [my comment: Dr. Faber seems to be vacillating from an oversold rebound to asset deflation.]
-We could have a global recession starting sometime in the fourth quarter of this year or early 2013—100% certainty -Hold cash US dollars and some gold. -Although gold prices may breakdown below the low on December 29 2011 of 1,522.
[my comment: the risks seems to be tilted towards a meaningful downdraft alright, which may signal some asset deflation or even global recession, but we can't rule out the possibility that political authorities, particularly of central bankers, may confront these with even more aggressive money printing measures, which again may defer interim trends.
Nonetheless, current environment highlights the state of uncertainty we are in]
In the following interview with Judge Andrew Napolitano, Ron Paul discusses the possible transition process towards 'sound money' or monetary freedom from the current fiat standard.
From Liberty Pen : Excerpts from an interview with Hillsdale College President Larry Arnn on May 22, 2006, in which Milton accurately forecasts the dangers of big government and advocates abolishing the FED (Hat tip Don Boudreaux)
The illustrious Mr. Friedman, who advocated activist monetary policy for most of his life, seemed to have a change of heart during the last moment.
GoldMoney.com's Director James Turk, interviews Adam Fergusson, author of the bestselling book When Money Dies at the recent Casey Research/Sprott Summit.
Fergusson discusses how the hyperinflation affected different groups in German society in different ways – with debtors benefitting and huge numbers of middle-class savers wiped out. Riots, corruption and political extremism were just some of the malignancies encouraged by the hyperinflation. He points out that those who held hard currencies as well as people who held tangible assets like gold and silver were in-large part protected from the worst economic consequences of the hyperinflation. In his words: “gold remained at all times in Germany the measure of what was important to them.”
James and Adam discuss whether or not today there is any way for governments in the developed world to repay their huge debts. Both men conclude that inflation is the only politically viable method of repudiating these unmanageable obligations. Fergusson highlights the importance of velocity and the demand for money in determining whether or not inflation turns into hyperinflation – though points out that this tipping point can take a surprisingly long-time to arrive; in Germany, people kept confidence with the rapidly devaluing mark throughout the First World War, despite clear signs that the country was heading for a currency crisis.
Fergusson thinks that we are heading for high inflation in many countries, but is doubtful that Weimar Germany’s nightmare currency collapse can be replicated in a sophisticated modern economy. He concludes with a quote from Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, who recently commented with respect of the sovereign debt crisis: “we all know what has to be done; what we don’t know is how to get re-elected once we done it.”
While Mr. Ferguson doesn't want to predict the imminence of hyperinflation in the West, he questions if policymakers would have "the kind of courage that politicians cannot have" in preventing a full blown hyperinflation from happening (34:20) once the tipping point arrives. He further sneered at economists for repeatedly predicting the wrong things (33:12).
At this Fox interview, Presidential candidate Ron Paul deals with the coming elections, the Fema, US Foreign policy and the Austrian School of economics (hat tip Bob Wenzel)
Legendary investor Jim Rogers says in this interview that the US Federal Reserve will engage in QE 3.0 when events get worst but will likely disguised it;
They may disguise it, they may call it cupcakes
Since governments are political entities, then they employ politics even in the way they communicate to the public.
A good example is the political language called doublespeak which Wikipedia defines as
language that deliberately disguises, distorts, or reverses the meaning of words. Doublespeak may take the form of euphemisms (e.g., "downsizing" for layoffs), making the truth less unpleasant, without denying its nature. It may also be deployed as intentional ambiguity, or reversal of meaning (for example, naming a state of war "peace"). In such cases, doublespeak disguises the nature of the truth, producing a communication bypass.
Quantitative Easing or credit easing policies is essentially money printing which is an example of euphemism or doublespeak.
So yes we could expect another doublespeak in terminologies applied for the next round of money printing or inflationism.
In this interview by John Stossel, Mises Institute editor and author Jeffrey Tucker shows how government intervention impedes on our choices, which affects even the routinary things we do, that ultimately impacts the quality of our lives.
In a recent CNBC interview, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach says that the world has been focused on the wrong problem, and that what ails the so called "imbalances" is principally about savings.
He also adds that currency fix is not going to work and is a result of bad economics and political propaganda.
In addition he says that capital controls are the wrong way to go about. And that quantitative easing will not work because it does not deal with root of the problem-savings.
Morgan Stanley Stephen Roach interviewed by Wall Street Journal in "the Big Interview"
Here are some notes from the interview
-Double dip 40% next year -Interest rates should be higher -Bernanke is just rerunning Greenspan’s movie -I would have voted against Ben Bernanke -Bernanke-condones asset bubbles -Chinese monetary policy is preemptive, US is reactive -China property bubble in High end (10 major cities) -China has micro bubbles (high end), but not a macro bubble (affordable-socially driven housing etc...) -Demand is strong for China: 15-20 million people a year from countryside to urban areas -Economists recommending fiddling around with currency are giving bad advice to political leaders and misleading the public -Consumer should be more prudent in managing finances
