Infographics: How the Fintech (Financial Technology) Industry Performed in 2015

The "Third Wave" generation or the information age has spawned and will give birth to various new industries. 

Part of this has been the the Financial Technology (FinTech) industry.

Financial Technology, according to Wikipedia, are the "line of business based on using software to provide financial services". Additionally, the the technology heavy companies "are generally startups founded with the purpose of disrupting incumbent financial systems and corporations that rely less on software".

In short, Fintech industries have emerged to challenge incumbent institutions established by the industrial revolution.

What distinguishes the "information age" as against the "industrial revolution" has been the "decentralized" platforms enabled by digital technology relative to the latter's "centralized" (top-down) institutions.

2015 have been a great year for the Fintech. Below is an infographic of the state of the Fintech in 2015. 

As an aside: disclosure: I do not have exposure yet on Fintech.

The SavvyBeaver writes,

Financial technology or FinTech is an integral part of the global economy. It's what processes transactions, helps us monitor the markets, and keeps the banks ticking. In recent years this kind of technology has rapidly evolved with the advent of mobile banking, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and the general rise of financial apps. There's no telling where it will take us in the future, but if the current stats are anything to go by GROWTH is the word.

A new infographic from SavvyBeaver Canada and startup Call Levels takes a closer look at the current financial technology landscape.

Its exponential growth can be clearly seen from the investment side. From 2013 to 2014, global investment in FinTech jumped from $3 billion to over $12 billion - a 400 percent increase. When the full data from 2015 is in, it's expected to have reached a staggering $40 billion!

Payment and lending solutions make up 40% of all investment, but blockchain technology (popularized by Bitcoin) and Cloud-based services are also heavily backed.

Unsurprisingly the United States is the largest investor, followed by Europe and then Asia. Giants like Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are all pumping millions in to the industry, alongside individual entrepreneurs like Marc Andreessen of Netscape and Reid Hoffman of LinkedIn. The general public are also increasingly investing, with stocks in Paypal and P2P lending platform Lending Club, leading the pack.

The majority of FinTech startups are also born out of the US, from tech hubs like Silicon Valley, New York and Boston. Collectively these account for roughly 4.7 million companies. India is next with 1.92 million FinTech startups and the UK accounts for 820,000, most of which are developed in London.

The top 5 Unicorns of 2015 (I.e. startups that have been valued over $1 billion), include mobile payment processor Square Inc ($6B), online payment processor Stripe ($3.5B), eCommerce and mCommerce technology company Powa ($2.7B), P2P lending platform Prosper ($1.9B), and outsourced payment processor Adyen ($1.5B).

Quite clearly the current demand is for efficient online and mobile payment processing solutions, which is just a reflection of how society wants to do business. Whether it's the local plumber wanting to accept digital payments instead of cash or a giant corporation wanting to include Bitcoin as a payment option, FinTech is helping us get there.

Meanwhile the top FinTech acquisitions of 2015 include the sale of bank software provider SunGard to FIS for $9.1B, DH Corporation acquired bank payment solution provider Fundtech for $1.25B, and digital payments business Skrill acquired online payment provider Optimal Payments for $1.2B.

What drives FinTech is innovation and efficiency. Simply put people want to be able to access financial services quickly, easily, on the go and for a cheaper price than traditional services. Even relatively new technologies like contactless credit cards are already being challenged by apps like Google Wallet that lets you do the same thing but with your phone instead. One less item to carry and extra security.

Other apps currently in the limelight include Call Levels itself, which allows you to monitor markets like equities and Bitcoin and receive alerts when there's a move you need to know about. Venmo is a digital wallet that allows you to send money instantly between friends and family for free, and you can fund the transaction with credit cards and bank accounts. On a larger scale it could easily rival Paypal.

Quite what the future holds isn't clear but FinTech advocate Michael Spencer believes the public are going to become far more educated in managing their assets and finances because of the apps themselves. He and other analysts like Chris Skinner are also predicting that some of us could end up doing our banking through Facebook.

Made by: SavvyBeaverCA

American’s Evolving Access to Credit

In the Philippines only about 2 in 10 persons have access to the formal banking system and a further smaller number from these few have access to banking credit, which has largely been inhibited by regulations

In the US, credit history serves as a major requirement for credit access.

From the Guardian

At 24, Josh Waldron thought he was ready to buy a house. He paid off his college debt, only two years after graduating. He saved enough for a down payment. All in all, he and his wife were ready to leave a life of renting behind.

Then his plans ground to a sudden halt. Waldron’s credit score had disappeared.

“How did this happen? It just didn’t make sense to me that I’d have a nonexistent score,” says Waldron, who is now 28. He had applied for a mortgage loan a few months earlier and found his credit score to be a robust 718.

So what happened? How could a person who was financially responsible and paying his bills on time just wake up one day with no credit score?

The culprit turned out to be his debit card. Waldron, eager to avoid debt, used his debit card to pay his bills and buy what he needed. He had never used credit cards.

The catch: no credit cards meant no credit.

And the lack of access to credit card has been growing, from the same article

Waldron is not the only millennial who has hoped to make a go of it without a credit card. According to recent FICO study, in the last seven years the number of those 18-29-years-old living without a credit card increased by 9%, going from 7% in 2005 to 16% in 2012…

Having a FICO score – that key to financial maturity – requires having at least one account that reported to a credit bureau in the past six months. Yet a lot of millennials are walking around among the 50 million people with no credit score, and thus, no access to credit.

Seen from a different angle, the US banking system rewards chronic borrowers.

Yet the dearth of access to credit has not been limited to the millennial generation, a significant number of non-millennial have also been affected.

Here is a snippet of a recent survey conducted by Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the Unmet Credit Demand of US households.

Within each bar, the three kinds of groups—accepted applicants, rejected applicants, discouraged borrowers—are denoted with a different color. Here we can see substantial differences in the composition of the groups. Compare, for example, the lower-income group (those with annual household income below $50,000), and the high-income group (those with annual household income above $100,000). Both groups demanded credit at similar rates: 61 percent of lower-income households and 65 percent of high-income households demanded credit over the past twelve months. But 33 percent of lower-income households were approved (the light blue bar in the figure), while 57 percent of high-income households were approved. Likewise, while 13 percent of the lower-income households were discouraged borrowers (the maroon bar in the figure), only 0.3 percent of the high-income households fell in this category. A similar pattern plays out when comparing unemployed and employed individuals—a larger proportion of unemployed respondents do not apply because they believe they would be rejected, and those who do apply are rejected at a higher rate than the employed.

Since the world doesn’t operate on a vacuum, under served credit markets by the formal banking system has been matched by the  informal sector.  

The emergence of informal pawnshops has partly filled such demand.

From the Wall Street Journal: (bold mine)

Borro and other collateral lenders—essentially high-end pawnshops—are a small but fast-expanding part of the shadow-lending system. Since 2008, as commercial banks have cut lending to small businesses, such alternative lenders have helped fill the void.

In some states, collateral lenders can charge interest rates exceeding 200% annually because the business isn't bound by traditional banking laws. On the upside for borrowers, there isn't a credit check and little paperwork.

So some entrepreneurs are hauling treasured possessions—Baccarat chandeliers, Picassos, Maseratis, even Houdini's handcuffs—to Borro and others to bankroll businesses historically financed by conventional loans, credit cards or not at all.

In Ms. Robinson's case, Borro was familiar with her Elizabeth Catlett sculpture: She had pledged it before to fund charitable events.

Borro is the largest of this new breed of collateral lenders, having lent nearly $100 million since opening in England in 2009.

Competitors such as iPawn Inc. and Pawngo collectively have lent tens of millions of dollars.

"If it continues being this hard for consumers and businesses to access credit, we think this can be a multibillion-dollar industry," says Paul Lee, a partner at Lightbank, a venture-capital firm that has invested $3 million in Denver-based Pawngo.

Aside from specialty pawnshops, many Americans have dropped out of the formal banking system to rely instead on payday lenders or rent-to-own services as I earlier noted, aside from online P2P lending.

The notion that there have been less demand for credit from the banking system has hardly been an accurate representation of reality.

Instead credit scores, bank regulations and lending standards, the banking system’s financial conditions, the state of the economy and many other factors including even a change in people’s mindsets and confidence levels, as well as, technological advancements have combined to influence the changing patterns of American households’ access to credit.

Japan’s post bubble bust era produced the same shift out of the banking system.

Nonetheless, the markets always finds ways and means to meet such shift in demand.

And it is not just credit, even corporate financing has been evolving. Venture capital is being complimented by – Corporate VC, Competitions, Conscious Capital, and Crowdfunding, according to Lux Research. 

ECB Says Bitcoin’s Origin is from the Austrian School

The information age has really began to affect even the state of money.

Digital money outside the ambit of government through the Bitcoin system has been on the rise.

chart from the Economist

The proliferation of Bitcoin has even gotten the attention of the European Central Bank (ECB)

Bitcoin represents a decentralized web based Peer to Peer (P2P) currency system or as defined by Wikipedia.org 

decentralized digital currency created by the pseudonymous entity Satoshi Nakamoto. It is subdivided into 100-million smaller units called satoshis.

It is the most widely used alternative currency, with the total money supply valued at over 100 million US dollars.

Bitcoin has no central issuer; instead, the peer-to-peer network regulates Bitcoins' balances, transactions and issuance according to consensus in network software. Bitcoins are issued to various nodes that verify transactions through computing power; it is established that there will be a limited and scheduled release of no more than 21 million coins, which will be fully issued by the year 2140.

Internationally, Bitcoins can be exchanged and managed through various websites and software along with physical banknotes and coins.

A short video explaining the bitcoin system below:

While skeptics allude to “anonymity” which comes with the innuendo of “illegal” transactions, as attraction to Bitcoins, the ECB in the following paper counters that the genesis of Bitcoins has been from the framework of the Austrian school of economics

Two influences on the Bitcoin says the ECB (See Virtual Currency Schemes October 2012).

First the Austrian Business Cycle.

The theoretical roots of Bitcoin can be found in the Austrian school of economics and its criticism of the current fiat money system and interventions undertaken by governments and other agencies, which, in their view, result in exacerbated business cycles and massive inflation.

One of the topics upon which the Austrian School of economics, led by Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich A. Hayek, has focused is business cycles.

In short, according to the Austrian theory, business cycles are the inevitable consequence of monetary interventions in the market, whereby an excessive expansion of bank credit causes an increase in the supply of money through the money creation process in a fractional-reserve banking system, which in turn leads to artificially low interest rates.

In this situation, the entrepreneurs, guided by distorted interest rate signals, embark on overly ambitious investment projects that do not match consumers’ preferences at that time relating to intertemporal consumption (i.e. their decisions regarding near-term and future consumption). Sooner or later, this widespread imbalance can no longer be sustained and leads to a recession, during which firms need to liquidate any failed investment projects and readapt (restructure) their production structures in line with consumers’ intertemporal preferences. As a result, many Austrian School economists call for this process to be  abandoned by abolishing the fractional-reserve banking system and returning to money based on the gold standard, which cannot be easily manipulated by any authority.

Second is the Austrian concept of depoliticization of money through competitive free markets

Another related area in which Austrian economists have been very active is monetary theory.  One of the foremost names in this field is Friedrich A. Hayek. He wrote some very influential publications, such as Denationalisation of Money (1976), in which he posits that governments should not have a monopoly over the issuance of money. He instead suggests that private banks should be allowed to issue non-interest-bearing certificates based on their own registered trademarks. These certificates (i.e. currencies) should be open to competition and would be traded at variable exchange rates. Any currencies able to guarantee a stable purchasing power would eliminate other less stable currencies from the market.

The result of this process of competition and profit maximisation would be a highly efficient monetary system where only stable currencies would coexist.

The following ideas are generally shared by Bitcoin and its supporters:

– They see Bitcoin as a good starting point to end the monopoly central banks have in the issuance of money.

– They strongly criticise the current fractional-reserve banking system whereby banks can extend their credit supply above their actual reserves and, simultaneously, depositors can withdraw their funds in their current accounts at any time.

– The scheme is inspired by the former gold standard.

But Austrians have objected to a complete connection for other theoretical reasons.

Although    the    theoretical    roots    of    the    scheme can   be    found    in    the    Austrian    School of   economics,    Bitcoin    has raised serious   concerns among    some    of    today’s    Austrian    economists.  Their    criticism    covers   two     general     aspects:

a)    Bitcoins     have     no    intrinsic     value    like gold;    they     are   mere     bits    stored    in    a computer; and  

b)    the    system    fails    to   satisfy the    “Misean  Regression   Theorem”,    which explains    that    money    becomes    accepted    not because    of    a   government    decree    or    social convention,  but because    it    has    its    roots    in a    commodity    expressing    a certain    purchasing    power.

The world does not exist in a vacuum.

The information age will provide alternatives not only to capital markets (e.g. P2P Lending and Crowd Funding) but to money as well.

Bitcoin or not, the incumbent political system’s sustained policies of debasement will only accelerate and intensify the search for currency alternatives premised on the burgeoning forces of “decentralization”.

Many Americans Opt Out of the Banking System

Perhaps mostly as a result of bad credit ratings from lingering economic woes, many Americans have turned into alternative means to access credit financing.

The following report from the Washington Post,

In the aftermath of one of the worst recessions in history, more Americans have limited or no interaction with banks, instead relying on check cashers and payday lenders to manage their finances, according to a new federal report.

Not only are these Americans more vulnerable to high fees and interest rates, but they are also cut off from credit to buy a car or a home or pay for college, the report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said.

Released Wednesday, the study found that 821,000 households opted out of the banking system from 2009 to 2011 and that the so-called unbanked population grew to 8.2 percent of U.S. households.

That means that roughly 17 million adults are without a checking or savings account. Another 51 million adults have a bank account, but use pawnshops, payday lenders or rent-to-own services, the FDIC said. This underbanked population has grown from 18.2 percent to 20.1 percent of households nationwide.

The study also found that one in four households, or 28.3 percent, either had one or no bank account. A third of these households said they do not have enough money to open and fund an account. Minorities, the unemployed, young people and lower-income households are least likely to have accounts.

This serves as proof that despite the lack of access through the conventional banking system, substitutes will arise to replace them. Demand for credit has always been there. Such dynamic resonates with the post bubble bust era known as the Japan’s lost decade.

I may add that people opting out of the banking system may not at all be about bad credit ratings, they could also represent manifestations of an expanding informal economy in the US. Chart below from Bloomberg-Businessweek includes undocumented immigrant labor, home businesses, and freelancing that escape the attention of tax authorities.

Over the past decade, the informal economy has been gradually ascendant even for developed nations. Advancement in technology may have partly contributed to this.

Although the recession of 2001 (dot.com bust) and the attendant growth in regulations, welfare and ballooning bureaucracies may have been the other principal factors.

My guess is that the post-Lehman era, which highlights governments desperate to shore up their unsustainable fiscal conditions, may only intensify the expansion of the informal economies even in the developed world.

Add to this the growing concerns over the economic viability of the banking system and continued innovation in technology (e.g. P2P Lending, Crowd Sourcing and etc…), the traditional banking system will be faced with competition from non-traditional sources.

China’s Blossoming Peer to Peer Credit Industry

More proof that markets abhor a vacuum.

While we seem to be getting mixed signals about the real credit conditions in China, where I suspect that lending growth has been happening among State Owned Enterprises (SoE) but may have been contracting in the private sector due to the overleverage in the shadow banking system (mostly from financial vehicles setup by regional authorities), many of the average Chinese seems to be exploring direct credit transactions via the internet: Peer to Peer lending.

From Bloomberg,

Peer-to-peer lending is taking off in China as traditional methods of private lending among family and acquaintances, part of the country’s unregulated $2.4 trillion shadow-banking system, move online. More than 2,000 websites have been set up nationwide since 2007, China National Radio reported in May. Loans brokered online increased 300-fold to 6 billion yuan in the first half of 2011, the latest figures available, from the full year total in 2007, the report said.

’Innovative Lending’

Akin to LendingClub.com or Prosper.com in the U.S., China’s peer-to-peer lenders let individuals invest a minimum of 50 yuan in projects ranging from small-business expansion to funding newlyweds’ honeymoons for as much as 23 percent interest, the highest rate allowed under Chinese law. While the returns are higher than parking the money in bank accounts earning 3 percent, they’re dwarfed by some underground shadow-banking investment yields that can go as high as 100 percent.

“This is an interesting and innovative lending platform with a lot of goodwill,” said Liao Qiang, a Beijing-based director for financial institutions at Standard & Poor’s.

Existing outside of regulators’ jurisdiction, online lending sites aren’t without risks. The China Banking Regulatory Commission in September issued a warning about web-based brokers, cautioning that their bad-loan ratio is “significantly higher” than that of banks -- without specifying the figure -- and that they can cross the line into illegality such as fraud, funding illegitimate businesses or money laundering.

A Beijing-based spokesman for the banking regulator said peer-to-peer lending isn’t under its official purview.

“There is no discipline at all,” Liao said, calling it a “short-lived fad” that won’t affect the role banks play in the economy. “There’s no enforcement should borrowers default.”

P2P lending will hardly be a short-lived fad, as they are in reality representative of free markets and of the deepening trend of the information age.

It’s bizarre how the mainstream talks about the paucity of discipline when today’s over-indebted shadow banking in China has mainly been fueled by reckless local government units in pursuit of political goals. China’s shadow banking industry consists of the investment trust industry, pawn shops, guarantors, underground banks and wealth management products.

Politicians and their apologists always try to shift the blame on markets the monsters which are, in reality, products of their self-creation.

Eventually P2P credit markets will get significant volume enough to challenge the conventional banking and financial industries, where the latter would seek interventions to curb competition. Don’t forget that conventional banking and governments will strive to uphold their symbiotic relationship which has been backed by the central bank.

Nonetheless, again China’s blossoming P2P credit markets are growing evidences of the deepening of the information age and of the parallel free markets (free banking?) that can be accessed, in case the conventional political- interdependent banking system undergoes a seizure (similar to Lehman episode of 2008). if not a collapse.

Capital Markets in the Information Age: P2P Lending

The information age has been bring about changes in the capital markets, I earlier showed crowd funding, now comes a variant, P2P lending

Writes Alex Daley at the Casey Research

It's a new idea but is based on the familiar technologies of the Internet; it's known as peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. The premise is simple: cut the bankers out of the loan market and keep the difference for yourself by making loans directly to other consumers.

I know, that sounds rather risky. When I see my neighbor pull up in his driveway with a shiny new car that I can guarantee costs more than his annual salary, the idea of loaning money directly to other consumers seems a little crazy. However, that's where the real innovation lies. With peer-to-peer lending, an individual investor doesn't make a single $10,000 loan. Instead, he can buy 400 different loans, taking only $25 of risk per loan, for example. Services that offer this option pull together large numbers of investors, who each take a small slice of large numbers of loans, thereby distributing risk much like an index fund. The result is usually a steady and expected rate of return after fees and defaults.

And there are plenty of defaults. Consumer credit is a risky space, after all. With peer-to-peer lending one can choose among unsecured loans only. However, despite what you may have gathered from your last attempts to find a parking space at Home Depot on a Saturday, the majority of people are good. And those good people have a tendency to pay back their loans. As an investor, these P2P services allow you to pick loans by risk category. Credit scores, debt-to-income ratios, income verification, and all the familiar tools of the professional lender are there, allowing you to make decisions about what kind of loans to buy and which to avoid.

This allows individual investors to tailor a portfolio to their own risk tolerance. Whether selecting all the individual loans by hand, or using the bulk investing tools each of the suppliers provide, a portfolio can be built in a variety of ways: from only investing in "A" grade loans with single-digit interest rates and predictably low defaults, to debt-consolidation loans for consumers with much lower credit scores, paying much higher interest but coming with significantly higher defaults as well, and everything in between.

Read more here

The above represents changes in the investment sphere (perhaps some of these companies will be publicly listed someday), as well as, changes in the social dimensions which should impact the political economy: The growth of P2P lending and Crowd Funding will eventually reach a tipping point where it will be seen or becomes a threat to the establishment. And that threat will be met with a feedback mechanism: response-counter response feedback by political authorities and the markets.

Nonetheless the internet has been providing the platform to expedite dramatic and rapid innovation based transformations.