World Recession Is Over!

That's according to Floyd Norris of the New York Times
From New York Times, (all bold highlights mine)

``The worldwide recession appears to have ended, with surveys showing manufacturing activity is on the rise nearly everywhere.

``“It is the emerging markets that are leading, with the U.S. following and Europe lagging,” said Chris Williamson, the chief economist of Markit, a company that surveys manufacturers in many countries.

``The surveys, conducted in the United States by the Institute of Supply Management and in other countries by Markit, measure not the level of manufacturing output but the way it is changing. The surveys have a reputation for showing turns in the economy, often before other indicators do.

``The September figures for manufacturing seemed to indicate that what had looked like a rapid recovery was slowing in the United States and Europe.

``But similar surveys of service companies appear to show growth accelerating in most countries, although not in the three European economies that Mr. Williamson thinks are still in recession; Spain, Ireland and Italy....

``It now appears that companies cut too much, and the surveys of manufacturing show that companies are expanding in most countries.

``Over all, the surveys indicate that the manufacturing sectors of China, Taiwan, South Korea and India had begun to grow by April, but that the United States did not follow suit until August.

``In Europe, France is reporting growth, and Britain is hovering near the midpoint, indicating the deterioration has stopped but growth has not yet begun. Although the German government estimates that its gross domestic product rose in the second quarter, the manufacturing survey indicates continued weakness in that country.

``New orders and production have turned positive everywhere but in the three European laggards, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Spain and Ireland have been badly hurt by collapses in real estate markets, which had boomed, in part, because of easy credit. Mr. Williamson attributed some of Italy’s problems to a lack of confidence in its government’s ability to deal with problems.

``But employment continues to lag in most countries outside of Asia. Mr. Williamson said he estimated that total job losses in the major developed countries — the United States, Britain, the euro zone and Japan — bottomed out at 1.9 million a month in March and are now about 500,000 a month. While many companies are still hesitant to hire, he says he thinks employment will begin to grow by the end of this year."

Added comments: None of this anything new, from the start of the year we have been arguing that Asia will likely lead the recovery,[ see for example 2009: Asian Markets Could OUTPERFORM, ] and so far this has been so.

Nonetheless, from our end a new bubble cycle has just begun. Enjoy this while it lasts.