Monday, July 20, 2020

Why the Panic USD Borrowing When GIRs are at a Record High? OFW Remittance Plunge to Decade Lows, USD Php’s Massive Falling Wedge


Thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest! For that may enable the so-called boom to last. The right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-boom.—John Maynard Keynes

In this issue

Why the Panic USD Borrowing When GIRs are at a Record High? OFW Remittance Plunge to Decade Lows, USD Php’s Massive Falling Wedge
I. Cognitive Dissonance: Panic Borrowing on Huge Reserves?
II. Has the BSP been using Bank FX Deposits to Boost GIRs?
III. BSP’s QE: Peso Issuance Outsprinting Foreign Assets Growth!
IV. Divergences Emerge: Derivative Rates Rise on Firming Peso
V. April’s OFW Remittances Plunge to Decade-Lows, Trade Deficit Remain Despite Collapse in External Trade
VI. BSP’s Operations Significantly Builds on USD Shorts, USD Peso Chart Exhibits Massive Falling Wedge

Why the Panic USD Borrowing When GIRs are at a Record High? OFW Remittance Plunge to Decade Lows, USD Php’s Massive Falling Wedge

The BSP says it has massive Reserves, but then why are they panic borrowing USD?

Have bank’s FX deposits been propping up the BSP’s reserves?

BSP’s balance sheets signal the acceleration of monetary inflation as peso issuance outsprints FX assets growth.

USD Php derivative rates diverge with the USD peso.

Can the economy afford the massive buildup of external borrowings in the face of plunging remittances and trade deficits?

A significant buildup of USD shorts is a tail-risk. The USD Php chart points to a substantial rebound.

I. Cognitive Dissonance: Panic Borrowing on Huge Reserves?

What’s wrong with this picture?

The BSP says it is awash with FX holdings.

From the ABS-CBN (July 15): The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said Wednesday the country's gross international reserves rose to an "all time high" in June. The GIR reached $93.32 billion in end-June, up by $30.5 million from May's $93.29 billion with inflows from the government's foreign currency deposits with the BSP, the central bank said in a statement. "The end-June 2020 GIR level represents an ample external liquidity buffer, which is equivalent to 8.4 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income," the BSP said.

But the National Government has been in a USD borrowing binge!

From the BSP (July 17): The Monetary Board (MB) approved National Government (NG) foreign borrowings in the second quarter of 2020 aggregating US$6,840.995 million, higher by US$3,800.493 million (125 percent) from the second quarter 2019 level of US$3,040.502 million. These consist of: (a) one [1] bond issuance aggregating to US$2,350.000 million; (b) three [3] project loans amounting to US$340.995 million; and (c) six [6] program loans amounting to US$4,150.000 million. These foreign borrowings will fund the NG’s: (a) general financing requirements for 2020 (US$2,350.000 million);(b) programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic (US$4,450.000 million); and (c) projects in infrastructure development (US$40.995 million)

From the Inquirer (July 2): Foreign borrowings, loans, and grant assistance secured by the Philippines to fight the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to a total of $7.76 billion (over P386 billion) as of July 1, with two-thirds of the proceeds already injected into the budget, the Department of Finance (DOF) said. In a report, the DOF said $7.63 billion in financing from multilateral lenders and bilateral partners were to be spent as budgetary support, of which $5.11 billion had been disbursed to the government.

From the Reuters/Yahoo (July 8): "We are planning to borrow up to 50% of GDP, up from 39% at the end of 2019," Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez told an economic forum. "We have the capacity to borrow...and we have the capacity to pay these loans in the future," Dominguez said. "

The USD borrowing spree has also infected the banking system!

From the Inquirer (July 7): The country’s leading lender, BDO Unibank, has raised $600 million from the offshore bond market, building up its cash hoard while interest rates are favorable. The fixed rate notes issue has a coupon rate of 2.125 percent per annum and a tenor of 5.5 years, BDO disclosed to the Philippine Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

From the Inquirer (July 7): Ty family-led Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. has raised $500 million from its first offshore debt market foray in nearly two decades. Metrobank priced its 5.5-year senior notes offering to yield 2.125 percent per annum on Tuesday night, a bookrunner said.

The point is: Why raise USD debt when GIRs are at a record high? Or has it been that USD debt and derivatives have made up most of the recent gains of the GIRs?

Why have banks been also boosting USD holdings?   Could it be that the propping up of the GIRs has been from the diversion of FX deposits from the banking system?

II. Has the BSP been using Bank FX Deposits to Boost GIRs? 

Figure 1

The banking system’s FX deposit growth rate has been southbound since 2014. This downtrend accelerated in 2019 when FX deposits even suffered two months of mild deflation! (Figure 1, upmost window)

Around the same period, the BSP’s Gross International Reserves grew at 13-14% the fastest rate since 2012. FX deposits increased by 3.45% in May YoY as the GIR grew by 9.42%. The GIR revved up by 9.9% in June.

With the downpour of FX from borrowings of the National Government in the 2Q, the growth rate of external banking operations (Net Foreign Asset’s Other Deposit Corporation or ODC) seems to have decelerated after peaking last January at 77%.

Net Foreign Assets of the Other Deposit Corporations (banks and non-banks) have staged a massive rebound since the USD climaxed last September 2018. (Figure 1 middle and lower pane)

FX operations using the banking system’s foreign currency deposit, again, may have boosted the BSP’s GIRs, thereby helped strengthened the peso, even as the economy has struggled.

III. BSP’s QE: Peso Issuance Outsprinting Foreign Assets Growth!

Much less understood by the public and even by experts is the role played by international assets on the BSP’s domestic currency operations.
Figure 2

Under a de facto USD standard, the boosting of GIRs fundamentally provides the amplitude to the BSP to expand its currency liabilities.

In the past, international assets comprised 80% to 84% of the BSP’s total assets. Last May, despite the 5.71% YoY increase, the % share of FX assets plunged below the 80% threshold to 78.77%, a multi-year low! (Figure 2, upmost window)

In its place, the 115.9% surge in the growth rate of domestic securities and its Php 300 billion repo with the National Government spurred a 32.54% jump in the growth rate of BSP’s currency liabilities.  (Figure 2, lowest pane)

Total assets, which expanded by a hefty 14.6% last May, have been supported by its historic QE operations (net claims on central government), which zoomed by 59.6%. (Figure 2, middle window)

On the other hand, with the BSP’s RRR cuts in place, bank reserves (ODC) contracted 18.25% YoY.  However, the BSP’s total liabilities, which increased by 14.98%, had mainly been due to currency liabilities, as well as the 6,810% growth spike of the Overnight Deposit Liabilities.

That said, the BSP has boosted the GIRs to accommodate the expansion of domestic currency issuance, which in May, have far have exceeded the growth of BSP’s FX assets, thus, lowering the latter’s threshold share of the BSP assets.  

With the BSP issuing more currency than its forex assets, the peso should weaken.

While inflow from the current borrowings and derivatives may continue to support the peso in the interim, the foundations from the BSP operations have started to leak and corrode.

IV. Divergences Emerge: Derivative Rates Rise on Firming Peso 

Figure 3
The USD peso has begun to diverge with FX derivative rates of the banking system as measured by the PHIREF. (Figure 3, upper window)

PHIREF or the Philippine Interbank Reference Rate, according to the Banker’s Association of the Philippines, is the implied Peso interest rate derived from done deals in the interbank foreign exchange swap market. The PHIREF is used as the benchmark for the reset value for the peso floating leg of an Interest Rate Swap.

In short, PHIREF rates measures the USD liquidity of the banking system through derivative trades. The rising PHIREF rates, perhaps, tell us why banks are borrowing USDs.

The developing divergence also reveals that the liquidity conditions in the derivative markets barely supports the strength of the peso. Higher peso may be a product of BSP’s interventions, using inflows from NG borrowings.

Low rates worldwide have also allowed the BSP leeway to conduct such operations designed to boost its foreign reserves.

V. April’s OFW Remittances Plunge to Decade-Lows, Trade Deficit Remain Despite Collapse in External Trade

But borrowed dollars would have to be paid.

The BSP would have to pray for continued low rates for it to maintain the current burgeoning FX programs and or that the conventional sources of USD inflows recover soon. Otherwise, a reality check will befall on the pesos’ artificial strength.

How will those liabilities be settled?

The BSP’s OFW remittances reported a milepost plunge last April. Personal remittances contracted by 16.1% year-on-year, a multi-decade low.

It was a historic decline for April’s cash remittances as well. Its 16.2% plunge accounted for the most year-on-year % decline since 2001, while the nominal USD decrease also was the biggest since 1999, in the aftermath of the Asian crisis.  After peaking in 2005-2007, the cash remittance trend has been trending south. COVID-19 accelerated this trend. (Figure 3, middle window)

In the meantime, despite collapsing external trade, the trade accounts remain in a deficit.

From the GMA (July 10): The Philippines's balance of trade in goods posted a narrower deficit in May as decline in exports is slower than the drop in imports during the period, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported Friday. Data from the PSA showed the country’s trade gap stood at $1.865 billion, down 48.9% from a $3.649-billion deficit in May 2019. The narrower deficit resulted from slower exports decline of 38.7% to $3.99 billion compared with import’s 40.6% plunge to $5.85 billion.

Again, with the economy in tatters, where will the NG and the BSP get the USD required to pay for its USD short position through expanded borrowings?

2Q official borrowings, recognized by the BSP at USD 6.84 billion, constituted 36% of the total FX gains of USD 18.6 billion acquired from the GIR’s bottom in October 2018 at USD 74.71 billion to June 2020’s record at USD 93.32 billion.

Besides, should the BSP continue to ramp up the inflationary printing press, it won’t just be the shortage of USD, but higher street inflation, which should also become a concern, whether or not this will be printed in the official CPI.

VI. BSP’s Operations Significantly Builds on USD Shorts, USD Peso Chart Exhibits Massive Falling Wedge

For now, the BSP’s printing press is being offset by huge demand slump as a result of the massive closings of enterprises, surging joblessness, and mounting income losses. But again, because of the morbid dread of the credit deflation, the BSP can be expected to push the printing press’ pedal to the metal.

The GIR is supposed to function as reserves, something like savings or corporate retained earnings. The BSP crow about reserves covering 8.4 months of imports, yet they are borrowing to supposedly finance imports for COVID-19 goods and services, as well as for infrastructure spending.

If they truly have excess USD liquidity, they could have used this, instead of burdening the economy with more debt and increasing its exposure to USD shorts.

But the appearance of strength seems to be the BSP’s priority, which sadly would come at the cost of placing unnecessary risks on the financial system, taxpayers, and the peso holders.

The risk-ON conditions brought about by global central bank’s massive injections have bought the peso bull’s some time. But whatever gains it has brought about is momentary, because not only have these been subject to diminishing returns, but it also builds on balance sheet risks. The policy of abolishing slumps leads to more imbalances escalating the risks of magnified busts.

Figure 4
From a charting perspective, there seems to be a huge falling wedge on the chart of the USD Php, which implies a sharp rebound soon.

I doubt if the coming rebound will merely be a technical matter.

Attachments area



Sunday, July 19, 2020

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?



If public opinion is ultimately responsible for the structure of government, it is also the agency that determines whether there is freedom or bondage. There is virtually only one factor that has the power to make people unfree—tyrannical public opinion. The struggle for freedom is ultimately not resistance to autocrats or oligarchs but resistance to the despotism of public opinion. It is not the struggle of the many against the few but of minorities—sometimes of a minority of but one man—against the majority. The worst and most dangerous form of absolutist rule is that of an intolerant majority. Such is the conclusion arrived at by Tocqueville and John Stuart Mill—Ludwig von Mises

In this issue

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?
I. A Stunning Revelation on the ECQ Policy from the DTI Chief!
II. Statistics and Politics: The Moving Goalposts of the DoH’s Policy Objectives
III. We Consistently Warned About COVID-19 Risks and its Economic Consequences
IV. Oligarchy or Plutocracy? It’s about the Leviathan State
V. The Agency Problem: The Fitch Warnings on the Non-Renewal of the ABS-CBN Franchise

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?

The DTI chief was a critical force behind the recent decision by the political leadership to keep the NCR at GCQ.

It’s not just economics, the DoH has also been using selective statistics to move goalposts.

I Told You So Moment: From January to March, we consistently warned of the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic consequences.

The difference between the oligarchy and plutocracy explained.

Credit rating agencies are not just about rating economic performance.

I. A Stunning Revelation on the ECQ Policy from the DTI Chief!

Continuing from last week’s discussion on the lockdown policy…

From GMA News (July 15): The Philippine economy cannot afford another lockdown, Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said Wednesday. “‘Pag nagkaroon tayo ng phase na talagang mahigpit na pagsasara.... the economy will collapse talaga ‘pag tinuloy pa ‘yung masyadong mahigpit na lockdown,” Lopez said in a virtual press conference after the televised Pre-SONA forum. “Therefore, ang direksyon natin is finding the balance on economy, health and safety of citizens,” he said.

The DTI chief’s warning came before the leadership announced the extension of the General Community Quarantine until the end of July in Metro Manila and most localities in the Philippines.

Did the DTI chief just confess? Did he admit that the ECQ pushed the Philippine economy to the brink of collapse, thereby have been vehemently resisting an extension of the strict lockdown policy?

Absolutely stunning!!

What was the likely basis for this conclusion?

From the ABS-CBN (July 16): Some 30 percent of businesses in the Philippines have closed since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Department of Trade and Industry said Thursday. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said the agency has yet to determine if the establishments were fully or temporarily closed due to the virus that shuttered businesses in Metro Manila for 11 weeks, leading to the first contraction of the Philippine economy in 22 years. Around 20 percent are fully operating while 50 percent have partially reopened, Lopez said. Of those who have partially resumed operations, the income of 90 percent were down, he added.

For simplicity's sake, let us assume a proportional distribution of the workforce with firms, regardless of the industry. Given the over 40 million labor force, how much would be permanently unemployed if only half of the 30% of enterprises closed for good?

And even for the firms that have been fully operating, given the lack of mobility, and the mountains of regulatory barriers erected, aside from the widespread economic disruption, how much productivity has been lost and will have to suffer?

This staggering statistics on closures, if anywhere true, would represent a historic dislocation of supply and demand (Say’s Law).  Huge credit issues will also undermine or plague the financial system because of this.

And the DTI’s data signifies the initial impact.

Because the market economy represents a complex and dynamic process, yet to be manifested are the second and third-order effects from the action-reaction feedback loops.

And bailouts through massive monetary inflation and leveraging up of the balance sheet and other interventions that would spur more misallocation of resources will solve this imbroglio?

If the small business loans from the US Paycheck Protections Program (PPP) as part of the USD 2 trillion CARES act bailout package serves an example, its distribution has been slanted towards the undeserving, to billionaires, political protégés, and even to some (state-owned) Chinese companies!
And these events are supposedly bullish for the economy?

Even the DTI chief seems to be in a panic!

Good luck to the faithful.

II. Statistics and Politics: The Moving Goalposts of the DoH’s Policy Objectives

The following excerpt should serve as another prime example of a normative “what ought to be” claim. (All bold emphasis mine)

In defense of the administration’s policy, this report from the ABS-CBN news (July 15): The Philippines has "successfully flattened" the COVID-19 pandemic curve since April, the country's health chief said Wednesday, even as more cases of the disease have been recorded in recent days. Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the conclusion was based on the longer COVID-19 case doubling rate and mortality doubling time. "We have successfully flattened the curve since April," he said during a virtual presser with reporters past noon.

Then, later, the retraction …

From the Inquirer (July 15):  Health Secretary Francisco Duque III was referring to the longer case doubling time for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) or the period it takes for the number of confirmed cases to become two-fold, and the readiness of the Philippines’ health system when he said the country has flattened the curve since April. Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said this on Wednesday after Duque drew flak on social media for his statement on Tuesday on flattening the COVID-19 curve. Duque later retracted the statement. Vergeire explained that flattening the curve should be interpreted with two indicators, such as the case doubling time and the readiness of the health system in responding to the pandemic.

This marks the second reversal by the DoH chief following an earlier claim the Philippines was undergoing a second wave.
The Health Secretary had been technically right. Partly. In the context of the base effect, the doubling time of an outbreak, say from 10 to 20 cases compared to 10,000 to 20,000 cases, would naturally slow.

But this assertion would be misleading. By making selective use of statistics while ignoring the others, and more importantly, distorting its presentation, the intent had seemingly been to defend the effectiveness of their policies.

But since most of the data, including the doubling rate, disputed this claim, the public easily called the bluff and compelled a retraction.

The above chart shows that the doubling rate of deaths has indeed been slowing, but continues to rise. In recent days, however, instead of bending, it has begun to break this trend to the upside. And seen from the 7-day moving averages, confirmed infections and death cases have spiraled upwards, which translates to the absence of bending or flattening of the curve (for now).

The DOH also said that the readiness of the health system matters.

But…

From Philstar (July 15): Most hospitals in Metro Manila, Cebu City and Iloilo have almost reached their full bed capacity for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, according to the Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. PHAPi president Rustico Jimenez said there is a need to decongest hospitals of patients who can be transferred to quarantine facilities, but do not want to. “These areas have the highest number of cases and are nearing their full capacity. Other areas are still manageable, unless the cases will continue to surge,” Jimenez told The STAR.

And the WHO has pressed the DoH to facilitate the release of testing results.

From the Inquirer (July 15) The World Health Organization (WHO) urged Philippine health officials to conduct verification of COVID-19 cases in a “much faster scale,” noting that quicker reporting of infections can help the public take precautionary measures more effectively. Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, WHO’s representative to the Philippines, underscored on Tuesday the importance of expediting the verification process of COVID-19 cases.  “This is what we have been urging the DOH [Department of Health] to do and we are seeing an improvement in that information sharing but this is a process and we are hoping that this validation of information can be done on a much faster scale so that information can be shared readily with the public,” Abeyasinghe said during a Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP) online forum. “If this is done, the public can take measures to protect themselves more effectively…In this outbreak, we’ve seen that what is most important is speedy contract tracing. To get an initial speedy contract tracing and make quarantining and isolation possible, you need to be able to get testing results very early,” he added.

How much of the increases in cases and deaths were from the late release of testing results due to bureaucratic red tape?

Despite its significance, statistics won’t show us such unrecorded events.

After the aborted cherrypicking of statistics, moving the goalpost and the strawman fallacy comes next.

From the Inquirer (July 18): Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government’s response was still “effective,” since millions have been spared from contracting the illness. Malacañang on Friday defended the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, as cases breached an earlier projection of 60,000 by the end of July. Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government’s response was still “effective,” since millions have been spared from contracting the illness. “It’s working. Because if we didn’t take steps, then millions would have fallen sick from COVID-19 like what UP (the University of the Philippines) initially predicted. It’s working, because only a small number died from the disease,” Roque said.

So the moving of goalposts applies not only to economic targets but also on health policy goals. Of course, such measures, we've been told, should be seen as a sign of success/effectiveness.

Whether in health or economics or other social activities, statistics has served as a convenient tool for the advancement of political agendum rather than explaining reality.

As an aside, given the spate of surging COVID-19 cases and deaths, will the political leadership submit to the recommendations of the health authorities to impose a second-round of lockdowns in the NCR against the entreaties of the economic managers?

III. We Consistently Warned About COVID-19 Risks and its Economic Consequences

Ever since the COVID-19 outbreak in China that impelled their government to lockdown almost half of their population in late January to early February, we have consistently been warning of the risks of an outbreak here, as well as the prospective policy from it, and the likely economic consequences.

Here are selected excerpts from previous outlooks. [bold and bold italics original]

The first few cases may have sown the seeds of the outbreak, and the impact of China’s lockdown. ….

The Philippines government reported not only its second nCoV case today, but this was the first death registered outside China.

Just a thought experiment: what could happen if just one of the nCoV finds its way to the high density, population packed, depressed area in the NCR? ...

Because the war on people translates to the disruption to the global division of labor, shocks to the demand and supply chains will occur.


In response to the denial by local authorities on the spread of nCov…

If there is anything steady, change is it. But instead of small oscillations, the nCoV, with its present multiplicative process, may bring about fat-tailed risks or rare events that may produce large shocks…

Why then should we discount the risk of the escalation of this tailed risk event to the domestic economy?  Because we have been told so? …

The strange part is that who is to tell what defines or qualifies as fake news or misinformation from real events? Is it something really unlinked to the issue/pathology? Or is it something said that goes against the palate or interest of the establishment? Or is it the deliberate manufacturing of evidence?


The complexities of the viral outbreak…

Aside from complexity, issues related to government responses, transmission channels (e.g. airborne or not?), detectability, availability of applicable testing kits, medical supplies and workers, quarantine centers, the number and the quality of public health centers, the monitoring, surveillance and control measures, the accuracy of disclosed cases, transparency of information, public awareness and precautionary measures, as well as, compliance with medical treatments, and many more, have influenced the rate and scale of dispersion of the coronavirus.


In reaction to the proposed festivities to revive tourism and shopping mall activities…

Is the DOH certain that the public will practice their prescribed precautionary measures? What if they don’t? Are they not sacrificing the public weal for temporary GDP and taxes? Have they considered the probability of an outbreak? If so, will this be GDP and tax revenue positive?

Are people just dollops of statistics to them?...

All it takes is ONE error, probably from an undetected super spreader, similar to the UK and the South Korean experience.


In a rare episode, we used the combination of positive and normative economics to predict the use of testing and a coming lockdown.    

The most efficient way to contain the spread and mitigate the impact of the virus could be through aggressive testing….

It is easy to say that there have been no infections; that is because no testing produces no incidence of infections.

Has the DOH adopted a ‘DON’T test, DON’T tell’ policy? …

Instead of transparency, the next course of action may be about the DOH controlling the flow of information for political goals.   


It’s not about cases, but about clusters now!

To paraphrase Ben Hunt of the Episilon Theory said, "case, case, case, cluster, cluster... then boom!"

The tendency for authoritarian regimes has been to cover-up COVID19 incidences. …

In any case, once a cluster or clusters appear, do the Philippines have sufficient public health facilities to accommodate an epidemic?

Or because of this, will the DOH adapt a Xi-style lockdown?


On March 8, the Philippine leadership placed the entire nation under public health emergency.

On March 12, the Philippine leadership announced the community quarantine of Metro Manila, which took effect on March 15th.

Effective March 17th, the entire Luzon was placed under the ECQ.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Oh, in fairness, the improved testing now said to reach over a million, seems like a step in the right direction.

IV. Oligarchy or Plutocracy? It’s about the Leviathan State

Oligarchy, according to Merriam Webster, is a government by the few. The other definition is a government in which a small group exercises control especially for corrupt and selfish purposes.

According to the Dean of the Austrian School of Economics, Murray N. Rothbard*: 

But while, as in the lynch mob, the majority can become actively tyrannical and aggressive, the normal and continuing condition of the State is oligarchic rule: rule by a coercive elite which has managed to gain control of the State machinery. There are two basic reasons for this: one is the inequality and division of labor inherent in the nature of man, which gives rise to an “Iron Law of Oligarchy” in all of man’s activities; and second is the parasitic nature of the State enterprise itself.

*Murray N. Rothbard, FOR A NEW LIBERTY THE LIBERTARIAN MANIFESTO p.60-61

Oligarchy exists in all forms of modern government wrote Professor Robert Higgs**:

In the modern world, many people demand a voice in how they are ruled. In reality, however, every actual system of rule in a large society is and must be an oligarchy. Neither democracy in the simple sense nor autocracy in the sense of strict dictatorship or monarchy is workable. But oligarchy, a system in which a relatively small group of cooperating rulers (though it may have a nominal head ostensibly in charge) and their key financial supporters applies the nuts and bolts of rule is workable, indeed, indispensable. So, whether by design or by piecemeal pushing and pulling, this is the form that all modern governments take.

**Robert Higgs, On the “Participatory” Part of “Participatory Fascism”, Independent Institute, August 27, 2018

A rule by a coercive elite translates to the fact that there can be no dismantling of oligarchy, there can only be a transfer of political power.

Meanwhile, plutocracy is defined by Merriam Webster, a government of wealthy or a controlling class of the wealthy.  

Plutocracy is a political form in which the real controlling force is wealth, the great American classical liberal William Graham Sumner. 

Mr. Graham further explained***:

The principle of plutocracy is that money buys whatever the owner of money wants, and the class just described are made to be its instruments…Modern plutocrats buy their way through elections and legislatures, in the confidence of being able to get powers which will recoup them for all the outlay and yield an ample surplus besides.

Plutocrats use political machinery and legislation for personal and political gains.

More from Mr. Graham:

A plutocrat is a man who, having the possession of capital, and having the power of it at his disposal, uses it, not industrially, but politically; instead of employing laborers, he enlists lobbyists. Instead of applying capital to land, he operates upon the market by legislation, by artificial monopoly, by legislative privileges; he creates jobs, and erects combinations, which are half political and half industrial; he practises upon the industrial vices, makes an engine of venality, expends his ingenuity, not on processes of production, but on "knowledge of men," and on the tactics of the lobby. The modern industrial system gives him a magnificent field, one far more profitable, very often, than that of legitimate industry.

Plutocracy resonates with crony capitalism.

***William Graham Sumner, “Democracy and Plutocracy” (n.d.) The Ruling Class and the State: An Anthology from the OLL Collection, Online Library of Liberty

At the end of the day, the common denominator of oligarchy and plutocracy is the control of the state.

V. The Agency Problem: The Fitch Warnings on the Non-Renewal of the ABS-CBN Franchise

As previously discussed, the ratchet effect or the use of a crisis to expand political power and control of society by governments, is epitomized by the ratification of the Anti-Terror Law and the non-renewal of the ABS-CBN franchise.


This short note will not be about the ABS-CBN franchise but the political slant exhibited by a subsidiary of a foreign credit rating agency, Fitch Solutions.

From the Inquirer (July 8): London-based think tank Fitch Solutions has warned of heightened investment risks in the Philippine media and telecoms space, citing the “politicization” of this industry amid the government’s orders to shut down Sky Direct and ABS-CBN Corp. The National Telecommunication Commission (NTC)’s “apparent ability to be influenced by the government continues to be a key impediment to foreign investor sentiment, and has also made the telecoms landscape difficult for both new entrants and existing players,” Fitch Solutions said in a research note dated July 7. The research also cited the slow pace of structural reforms in this industry.

The ABS-CBN controversy has long been in place, yet this warning from Fitch Solutions was published two days before the House vote. Fitch, thus, attempted to influence the outcome.

Much of the public has been unaware of the principal-agent problem or conflict of interests in the shaping of credit ratings that are not only determined by economic conditions but also by political factors, which benefits these credit rating agencies.

In short, one can’t trust the output of credit rating agencies.