7,400 Again! Distribution of Returns Favors Losses; NEDA on China’s Political Mega Deals: Non Binding MOUs

7,400 Again!

A week back the PSE soared to 7,700, from a two day 4.88% ramp, which resulted to an astounding 3.53% weekly meltup. This week, fortunes radically changed. The PSEi suddenly regressed back to 7,404 from this week’s 3.21% quasi-crash.

And this week’s bloodbath had been considerably MITIGATED by a FURIOUS last two minutes afternoon delight PLUS marking the close pump.

Except for the last two minutes in Friday’s October 28 session, the PSEi traded not only below 7,400 but hovered close to 7,312.

In other words, without the manipulation or blatant price fixing, the PSEi could have traded at the October 13 low levels of 7,312.18 (or at least below 7,350)

From a chart perspective, the PSEi even broke the 200-day moving averages, but had to be pumped up back to the support level. This shows why I am no fan of charts, as they seem to suggest that price manipulations are incorporated as a reflection of "all relevant information".

Moreover, the incredible escalating accounts and degrees of volatilities showcases instability and has most likely signified as symptoms of an inflection point.

Also, this week’s meltdown marked the EIGHT time for the threshold 7,400 to have been touched.

7,392.2 or rounded to 7,400 as I have recently noted represents the May 15, 2013 milestone. So despite the populist din about G-R-O-W-T-H, the Philippine benchmark remains stuck at 7,400 for 3 years and over 5 months!

Yet in three years, the 7,400 watermark has provided a meaningful risk-reward distribution ratio.

In two ramps past 7,400, the bellwether returned 9.8% (April 2015) and 9.5% (July 2016), or an average of 9.65%.

On the other hand, in two accounts where the benchmark traded substantially below 7,400, losses were at 22.45% and 17.8%, respectively, or an average of 20.125%.

This reveals of a blueprint from the past two years. It shows that positioning at 7,400 has a risk-reward ratio of 2:1. Or for every peso that may be gained from positioning at this level, an equivalent of php 2 may be lost.

In short, the distribution of returns at present levels would imply for the larger losses relative gains!

Of course, bulls may spin this to suggest that at least higher lows or reduced degree of losses in 2013 vis-à-vis 2015-16 could mean a better risk reward distribution.

However, as I have pointed out numerous times here, price actions should not be seen in singular dimension.

For the local benchmark, in 51 years that covered 2 secular cycles and the third one still unfolding, vertical price runs have almost always suffered from Newton’s Third Law of motion—For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction—or a variant of “reversion to the mean” applied to price actions. Or pumps equate to dumps. Or from boom to  bust.

Besides, stocks have not just been about prices but, more importantly, about discounted stream of cash flows from a convergence of cycles shaped by real economic activities. As the most expensive in Asia, such would signify a symptom of credit financed excessive or destabilizing speculation anchored on delusions. Ergo, a bubble.

 

And as for Newton’s Law in action, the charts of Meralco, Globe and GTCAP reveals of various advanced phases which these stocks have presently been experiencing.

Now let us shift from stocks to politics.

Below signifies an incredible excerpt on the government’s economic agency, the NEDA’s position on the political mega deals from China: [Legislators urge: Not so fast on China megadeals Interaksyon October 30, 2016] (bold added)

The MOU with China Road and Bridge Corporation is for the Fort Bonifacio-Ninoy Aquino International Airport Bus Rapid Transit project, while China Harbour Engineering Company signed for the Subic ClarkRailway project.

According to NEDA, the MOUs were, so far, merely for feasibility studies that are not binding on any party.

Ronaldo Tungpalan, NEDA Deputy Director General, added: "It's therefore not a contract. It is non-binding, and, in fact, at the official level, my discussions with my Chinese counterparts is that this does not in any way bestow prior rights upon the company who will do the study because we are, we will be, going through a competitive selection process."

After the feasibility study, Tungpalan said, the proposal will be brought before the Investment Coordination Committee and then presented to the NEDA board. Once approved, that's the time the project will undergo competitive bidding.

"From approval to bidding to monitoring and evaluation, I think you have sufficient safeguards, transparency from the different agencies that would be privy to this. So it's not something that one implementing agency like the BCDA can keep to themselves, because they have to go through the approval process. 

A BCDA statement said: "If, at the time of public bidding for these projects, these companies are deemed ineligible based on our strict procurement qualification rules and regulations, then these companies will not be qualified to participate in the bidding."

Two things here.

One, incumbent cabinet members appear to be in a state of confusion. They have been desperately trying to shore up or provide patchwork on the president’s tenuous position by countering or contradicting his claims.

Two. The NEDA just did NOT get the memo. Like the war on drugs, political mega deals with the Chinese government will be beyond the scope of edicts, legislation and mandates—or even the constitution.

What is the Relationship of “Marking the Close” and the Newfound Bias for Dictatorship?

Why has Philippine politics drifted towards the preference for the superhero icon leftist dictator?

The short answer has presciently been provided by JM Keynes: “As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.”

Said differently, inflationism alters people’s values and preferences towards the short term. Or inflationism subliminally seduce the public to seek immediate gratifications

Well, today’s actions in Philippines Stock Exchange demonstrate such pathology or the penchant for gambling and for exigent gratification.

And it’s been more than just gambling and lottery, this relentless pursuit of short-term pleasure via easy money, has evolved towards employment of unscrupulous activities that has been sanctioned by the establishment.

 

What can’t be made through market pricing has to be deliberately fixed at the closing bell.

A full 49.4 points or 55% of the 89.74 points or 1.2% was expunged through marking the close.

Such 49.4 points has even been larger than the 40.34 points loss for the day!

In fact, the Phisix was down by 117.07 or 1.57% in less than two minutes PRIOR to the market intervention phase (right window). Then massive orchestrated coordinated pumping began which culminated with the marking the close.

 

Of course, manipulating the index needs a collaborative pump on several big market cap issues which of course was timed at the last few minutes.

This can only happen from coordinated timing.

 

Massive pumping occurred in these issues which represented the four sectors.

Like the 7,800 Maginot line, the idea is to desperately save 7,400… at all costs!

Because 7,400 have been reduced to symbolism, the function of markets has deliberately been impaired for convenience purposes. In other words, the PSE has been politicized.

And surely money spent to artificially prop up extravagant prices come from hapless and unwitting depositors or taxpayer money.

Yet for the mainstream, in the stock market, prices only matters. High Prices is justified as G-R-O-W-T-H. Hence, manipulating prices, for them, will also redound to G-R-O-W-T-H.

It’s like cheating in school and hoping to get a high-quality job.

Though some may say that this may be about window dressing that would be a non sequitur. Window dressing does not justify perversion of the markets.

And because the cost of price fixing is low, hence the rampancy of its usage. And this is why price fixing has been so prevalent—only in the Philippines.

Nevertheless, all actions have consequences. Gratification today will come at a price tomorrow.

As a clue, today’s pump only mitigated the near complete reversal of the 4.88% two-day pump last week. Newton’s Law in just two weeks.

Mind Control Propaganda: About that $19 Billion of Japanese Investments and the Bizarre Love Triangle Foreign Policy

From the Inquirer

The Philippines has received offers of investments and loans totaling $19 billion during President Rodrigo Duterte’s three-day official visit to Japan.

The bulk of the amount, $17.2 billion, was offered by Marubeni Corp., one of Japan’s major integrated trading and investment business conglomerates, Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said in a text message to reporters in Manila on Thursday.

According to  a document provided by Lopez, Marubeni will be “involved in $3.2 billion worth of projects (short term) and $14 billion (medium to long term) worth of projects in mass transport systems, roads and highways, water and power.”…

The agreements were signed after the Philippine Investment and Economic Forum on Thursday, which was attended by more than 1,000 Japanese businessmen and about 200 representatives from the Philippine business community, Lopez reported.

The impression generated by the article here is that Mr. Duterte’s visit to Japan elicited Marubeni and other Japanese business interests to impulsively open their checkbook and send them to the leadership. 

Both media and the government projected C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E in the article!

Such misperception has been reverberated or echoed by the public based on many commentaries.

Yet economics tells us that these “investors” EXPECT not only a RETURN on their capital but likewise INTEREST payments on loans.

In other words, Marubeni and other Japanese investors haven’t panicked to send their money to the Philippine government BECAUSE of the leadership alone. They have MOST likely conducted FEASIBILITY studies to determine whether these short and long term investments would generate sufficient returns and interest payments from their investments.

And they have done this EVEN long BEFORE Mr. Duterte’s visit. And the administration simply GRABBED credit for these long due investments.

Proof?

Trading house Marubeni, which has been doing business in the Philippines for more than a century, is “upbeat” about its investments in the country.

These include stakes in the power and energy development sectors, mass transportation projects such as the Metro Rail Transit 7 and the Light Rail Transit 2 extension, and the water sector.

New forays

Marubeni chair Teruo Asada said his conglomerate was also looking into new forays in the Philippines, including commercial vehicles.

Or this…

The President also met with Teruo Asada, chairman of Marubeni, which has had a 105-year presence in the Philippines.

Coloma said Marubeni is upbeat about its current Philippine investments in power, energy development, water utility, and mass transportation (MRT 7 and LRT 2 extension).

The Japanese company has also shown great interest in exploring new fields of business development in the Philippines, such as in commercial vehicles.

President Aquino arrived at the Haneda International Airport about 3:19 p.m. Tuesday for a four-day state visit.

The former quote was from an Inquirer article “Japanese traders eye PH investments”, in June 3, 2015. The latter was an Interaksyon article “Japanese investors eye business expansion in Philippines”, also from the same date.

Note that Marubeni has been “upbeat” in the Philippines even during the former president’s time. Importantly, the Japanese firm talked about virtually the same field of interests with what Mr. Duterte reportedly obtained: namely, mass transport, power and energy and utility

In fact, Marubeni has been mulling investments here way back in June 2009 or SEVEN years ago! From Philstar “Marubeni mulls investments in renewable energy projects”  June 30,  2009.

Japanese trading giant Marubeni Corp. is mulling investments in renewable energy projects.

Masumi Kakinoki, Marubeni senior operating officer for the Power Projects and Infrastructure Division, said this is consistent with the company’s thrust of promoting a cleaner environment.

We are eyeing more investments, especially in renewable projects. We are very much an environment conscious company,” he said…

The Marubeni official said they are still studying which kind of renewable projects they will venture into.

This shows that Marubeni has been “upbeat” and has mulled over Philippine investments even PRIOR to the Aquino administration or during the GMA administration!

The simplistic idea presented has been Duterte PLUS $19 billion Japanese EQUALs C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E and eventual G-R-O-W-T-H!

Another sad post hoc fallacy designed to feed politics as salvation to the masses.

There have been lots of issues to deal with on reported Chinese investments. Some sectors have already raised concerns over dubious or tainted characters of so-called Chinese investors.

Yet there is also the sphere of geopolitical relations.

Given that the Japanese government has been demilitarized as consequence to World War II, they have largely been dependent on the US for its defense. The US maintains several bases in Japan.  In fact, Japan has a non-nuclear weapons policy, though the Japanese government has the infrastructure to produce themfast, if they so desire.

So Mr. Duterte’s angling of the Japanese signifies nothing more than a charade. The Philippine administration appears to be adopting a “bizarre love triangle” as foreign policy.

And given that Japanese could be seen as vassals for the American imperialism, Japanese "investments" will most likely have some tacit concurrence with the US government. This means that the US may be giving the Philippine leadership some room for normalization of foreign policy. 

Besides who will Mr. Duterte chose in the territorial island dispute between the Japanese and Chinese government? How much more if these parties end up in a shooting war?

From Nikkei Asian Review [Duterte walks fine line between Abe, Xi on South China Sea October 27]

Abe called on Duterte to stand by Japan on the dispute, calling it a "matter of interest to the entire international community that is directly tied to regional peace and stability."

Mr. Duterte doesn’t seem to be playing neutral here. Instead, it would appear that he has been playing these contentious forces against each other (the Machiavellian divide and conquer strategy).

Bizarre love triangle.

Finally, Philippine populist ochlocratic politics have reached goofy levels.

From Washington Post's headline (October 27): Philippine leader Duterte says God told him to stop cursing

On the issue of Philippine patrols at disputed islands: From GMA: (October 28) Duterte: I don’t think China will stop PHL from patrolling territorial waters [bold and capitalization added]

President Rodrigo Duterte sees no issue with China in using patrol vessels acquired from Japan in the West Philippine Sea. 

"Yes, within our territorial waters… But if you want, wala man tayong problema. I don’t think they would stop us, I mean China would stop us just going there and making a cruise," the President said in a chance interview after visiting the Japan Coast Guard on Thursday afternoon. 

Duterte then added that he even told China could even park near Philippines' territorial waters. 

"As a matter of fact, I also told them [China] that they can go near MY territorial water and park there if they want," the President revealed.

The Philippines now represents a fiefdom of Mr. Duterte?

As German propaganda minister,  Joseph Goebbels said in a speech in 1923 (bold mine)

It is the absolute right of the State to supervise the formation of public opinion.

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.

All actions have consequences. Sad to say, implicit in these actions would be a far BIGGER government that comes at the expense of the private sector economy and a severely restrained civil liberty