Friday, April 29, 2011

Capitulating Deflationists: David Rosenberg and Rick Ackerman

One by one members of the deflationist camp have been capitulating.

I earlier pointed to populist analyst John Mauldin and celebrity guru Nouriel Roubini.

Now, Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche says this time it’s David Rosenberg’s turn.

From Mr. Roche

After trying to call the top in equities every other week for the last two years, David Rosenberg has finally thrown in the towel on the bearish calls. In his Wednesday research report he detailed why he believes equities have achieved a “holy grail” and should continue to move higher:

“On a very near-term basis, and despite my long-standing macro concern list, which has not gone away, it does look like the market is set to rise further. The technicals are suggesting as much, though I do await what Walter Murphy may have to say on the matter. I had said before that a breakout to new highs led by higher volume would be an important technical signpost. Well, we achieved that Holy Grail yesterday – both in level terms and with respect to the change. This is not throwing in the towel, it is an acknowledgment of what the market internals are flashing at the current time from a purely tactical and technical standpoint….

“…All that said, we had a breakout to new highs yesterday and this time, the volume rose on the major exchanges, not to mention rising above the 50 DMA on the Nasdaq, which is a clear sign that the big boys are putting money to work. This market continues to impressively climb a wall of worry. Market internals are too strong to ignore right now – the NYSE advancers beat decliners by a 3 to 1 ratio yesterday; the Dow transports soared 1.9%; and the small caps beat their major benchmarks. My overall macro concerns have not gone away, but these market facts on the ground are tough to ignore.”

Austrian economics Professor Gary North also points to the defection of Rick Ackerman after 30 years of adhering to the deflationist outlook. He follows Martin Weiss in 2009

Writes Professor North,

What I have always said is this: there is no deflationary factor in the structure of the capital markets to keep a central bank from destroying the currency unit. There are no deflationary forces that central banking cannot overcome if it chooses to destroy the currency unit.

Well, this represents the fundamental flaw of deflationists, which they have stubbornly refused to pay heed to... of course, until the markets have proven them constantly and profoundly wrong which eventually led to their apostasy.

Nevertheless as a saying goes it's better late than never.

3 comments:

Wilfrid said...

I still do not understand much this inflation/deflation debate. Why do we have to choose a camp ?
For me inflation and deflation are the two faces of the same coin. In the boom/bust cycle isn´t boom inflation period and bust deflation period ?
I suppose the next bust will be deflationnist , isn´t it ?

benson_te said...

Hi Wilfrid,

Thanks for your comments.

The debate between the inflation-deflation is largely one of analytical methodology and ideology. The deflationists are mainstream (Keynesians, Fisherians) analysts who stubbornly insisted that government’s money printing would not cause inflation. They used technical arguments like liquidity trap, pushing on a string, or falling money velocity among others to assert that monetary policies would be ineffective in the face of massive debts that would be aggravated by 'falling aggregate demand'.

Some of them even used the deflation scenario as bogeyman, by predicting the financial market’s continued collapse, to call for more government intervention mostly by printing of more money and other forms of intrusions. Well, what they said won’t happen has been happening. The tide has shifted favourably towards the Austrian school’s (Austrian Business Cycle Theory) analysis of the market than the mainstream. That’s the point of the article.

Hope this helps.

Wilfried said...

Thank you.
I really enjoy your blog.
I have two references to get educated with what is happening in the financial world: your blog and www.financialsense.com. I used to be a big fan of Harry Dent (deflationnist). I liked the way he predicted the boom/bust cycle far in advance. I liked the fundamentals behind his thinkings. I still like him, but he is marketing it too much and try to use his method for investments.
To be honnest I am impressed by your hardwork to maintain the blog. Thank you again