Wednesday, July 13, 2011

How Global Equity Markets have Measured Up to the PIIGS Crisis

My favorite equity monitor site, Bespoke Invest has a nice updated graph on the performances of global equities as of yesterday.

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Here are my observations:

Of the 78 global benchmarks shown, only 24 or 30% of the countries have registered gains.

Although most have been in the red, the degree of losses have not been on a bear market scale.

The current top performer has been Venezuela, who along with Greece shares, represents one of the highest default risks.

8 of the 24 top gainers hail from Asia.

As I keep pointing out, ASEAN mainstays have been among the biggest gainers: Indonesia (7th), Malaysia (14th) Philippines (18th) and Thailand (19th) which has been moving in near synchronicity.

Among the BRICs, only Russia is in the winning column. India and Brazil have suffered hefty losses.

Brazil may endure a recession next year, following an inversion of its yield curve—oops! chart below from Bloomberg

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Vietnam's equity bellwether, which has been among the worst losers, has a yield curve that has likewise been leaning towards inversion ala Brazil.

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chart from ADB’s Asian Bonds Online

Vietnam’s equity has been fumbling from her government’s attempt to contain inflation by tightening the monetary environment. So the yield curve has reflected on this concern.

Among the G-7, the US and Germany are the only gainers ranked 12th and 16th.

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