Jason Zweig in his latest article at the Wall Street Journal cites a study which suggests that people with brain damage are likely to make superior investment decisions than normal people…
With computerized traders that "hold" stocks for only a few seconds at a time and markets that can swing wildly in a matter of moments, long-term investing seems to be on the verge of extinction.
Perhaps this is inevitable. It turns out that short-term thinking is deeply embedded in the workings of the human brain. New research suggests that in order to avoid trading your accounts to death, you must counteract some of the very tendencies that make Homo sapiens the most intelligent of all species.
In a study published last month in the Journal of Neuroscience, researchers from California Institute of Technology, New York University and the University of Iowa looked at how people use past rewards to predict future payoffs.
Directly behind your forehead is a region of the brain known as the frontopolar cortex. Much larger in humans than in other primates, this area is critical to such advanced mental functions as memory, exploring new environments and making decisions about the future.
In the new study, the researchers wanted to see how the frontopolar cortex contributes to predicting rewards. So they compared people with damage to the frontopolar cortex against two control groups of healthy people and those with injuries elsewhere in the brain (but not the frontopolar cortex)….
When confronted with the unpredictable, however, the frontopolar cortex refuses to admit defeat. It draws on all your computational abilities to search for patterns in random data.
In the absence of real patterns, it will detect illusory ones. And it will prompt you to act on them.
No wonder so many investors find it hard to muster the willpower to buy and hold a handful of investments for years at a time.
But if "buy and hold is dead," as growing numbers of investors argue, it isn't clear what else is alive. In the lousy markets of the past decade, various alternatives such as "tactical asset allocation" (or market timing), mathematical risk-reduction techniques and even plain old intuition haven't worked out all that well, either.
Most of the folks who say buy and hold is dead don't talk much about their long-term returns. Instead, they stress how they have done recently, a tactic that for many potential clients has the same irresistible appeal as the last couple of pulls on a slot machine.
The solution to short-term thinking isn't to bash yourself in the forehead with a hammer, of course. But you can use your brainpower to your advantage.
Every investing decision you make should be the result of a deliberate process.
The implication that it would take brain damage to make for a better investor would seem downright preposterous (the same goes with the theory of high IQs)
Pseudo scientific studies like the above disparages the individual’s distinctive capacity to deal with the ever changing circumstances we are faced with.
While it may be true that many people have the tendency to fall for cognitive biases, in reality all of people’s actions are driven by incentives
Incentives are shaped by the dynamic admixture of many factors—including genes and the environment, peer pressure and social status, educational background, culture, religion, technology and even to social policies such as zero bound rates—in relation to changes to the environment, social relations and the economy (even if some of their actions can be read as cognitive biases or heuristics—pattern seeking behavior).
This applies to short-term thinking.
Deliberate process is more about containing the urge for the dopamine to govern one’s action, or importantly, managing emotions through emotional intelligence (EI) to attain self-discipline.
Superior investing decisions can be attained even if you have a normal brain.
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