Tuesday, August 20, 2013

No Trading Today, Philippine ETF down 3% in New York

I have been informed that stock market trading has been suspended anew today. 

So we will not see how the local market will react to 1) the bloodbath on two of our ASEAN neighbors and 2) the more moderate selloff in both Europe and the US.

And tomorrow is a public holiday here. 

Nevertheless had there been trading today, the Phisix is likely to shadow the New York ETF counterpart, the EPHE (iShares MSCI Philippines), which closed 3% down last night.

The EPHE and the Phisix has a very tight correlation. I superimposed the PSEC and the EPHE in the above chart

But this would be counterfactual thinking, because we will never know. Again trading is suspended today.

What matters now is if there will be a follow-on selloff in the Indonesian and Thai stocks.


Above is an update of the Thai SET chart


And the updated Indonesian Dow Jones Indonesia index (charts from stockcharts.com)

If the Indonesian-Thai stock market meltdown continues and if global stock market selloff will extend in the coming sessions, then it is a wonder how these accumulated pressures will be ventilated on the Phisix Thursday.

Let me just repeat what I said last night
Has Typhoon Maring or Tropical Storm Trami been a blessing in disguise for Philippine stocks? Or will we see a belated sympathy move tomorrow similar to June 14th? (edited to add: instead of tomorrow make it Thursday—Benson) Or will Philippine stocks resonate with Malaysia's mitigated loss? Or will Philippine stocks defy the contagion out of "this time is different"?

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