Philippine Peso Breaks to 2½ High! The Seen and Unseen Variables

As you probably know by now, the Philippine Peso surged to its highest level since June 2003 or a 2½ year high to Php 53.42 against the US dollar for an amazing gain of 1.36% over the week, essentially validating my contrarian forecast about a year ago.

Naturally, we have mainstream news accounts and their corresponding analysts piling over the reportage on what seems to be the stating the obvious....exploding overseas remittances. However, your prudent investor analyst who adopts the maxim of the illustrious economic journalist Frédéric Bastiat who declares “There is what is seen and the unseen”, which basically means an act or event as having been seen as the immediate cause to an effect but is not duly the underlying cause, in Bastiat’s words, ``When a man is impressed by the effect that is seen and has not yet learned to discern the effects that are not seen, he indulges in deplorable habits, not only through natural inclination, but deliberately.” In the context behavioral finance, Bastiat’s adage translates to what is usually deemed as ‘rationalization’ or an oversimplified explanation usually attributable to current events.

Figure 1, US Dollar/Philippine Peso Chart

In our Oct 17 to 21 edition, see US Tightening Affecting Global Financial Markets II, I wrote ``The chart above of the Philippine peso shows of the domestic currency appreciating after two rate hikes; on September 22^nd (red arrow) the Peso was at 56.24 while prior to Thursday’s rate hike the Peso was last traded at 55.71.” In short, the incipience of the peso’s appreciation was marked by a series of interest rates increases adopted by our own version of Central Bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, as shown in Figure 1.

Of course, this is NOT to discount the remittance factors which coincidentally accelerated during the period as promptly reported by Manila Times’ Maricel E. Burgonio last November 16^th, ``OFW remittances that month rose 28 percent to $941 million from a year ago. This led to a 28-percent growth in nine-month inflows to $7.9 billion from the $6.204 billion sent home in the same period last year.”

At the magnitude of today’s firming of our local currency, it would probably require remittances to grow by about 40-50% to drive the Peso to its current levels. Nonetheless, we should not forget that the remittances have been growing all year round yet the Peso hovered within the 56 to a US dollar levels in about 27% of the year! Particularly in July to September which was largely ascribed to political instability concerns arising from the Garci wiretapping scandal.

My bullish case for the Peso has mainly been predicated in the context of macro developments, particularly of surplus global liquidity, expanding trade, financial marketplace and economic integration. In short, the globalization of the economic and financial spheres has expedited the gradual leveling off in the purchasing power differentials underpinning today’s macro evolution.

If you think that the Philippine Peso’s 1.36% advance was enough to make this week’s cynosure, then you must be apprised that it was Indonesia’s rupiah that took the spot light up by more than THREE percent!!

Let us take it from the report of Bloomberg’s Christina Soon (emphasis mine), ``The rupiah surged 3 percent this week to 9,700 against the dollar, the biggest weekly gain since the period ended July 19, 2002. The currency yesterday climbed as high as 9,615, its strongest since June 20...The rupiah yesterday climbed to the strongest since June 20 after the central bank this week raised its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time in four months to slow inflation. Higher rates boost returns investors get for holding Indonesian assets. A new cabinet that was put into place this week also fueled expectations the government can attract more investment.”

Figure 2 Indonesia’s Rupiah as of November 18^th close, courtesy of Ed Yardeni (www.yardeni.com)

Indonesia’s rupiah has been on an uptrend after an overshoot to the downside during the selling frenzy in the wake of the 1997 Asian Crisis (see Figure 2). Since, the Rupiah has gradually gained some of its lost ground and used the recent Cash Yield spreads as a pretext for portfolio inflows.

It has not been different from South Korea’s won which advanced by .4% over the week mostly due to an almost ‘coordinated’ movement in the REGION’s currencies. A continuation of Bloomberg’s Ms. Soon report notes that (emphasis mine), ``South Korea's central bank on Dec. 8 unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate as an accelerating economy threatens to spur inflation. The bank lifted the rate to 3.75 percent from 3.5 percent. The National Statistical Office on Dec. 8 said its consumer confidence index rose to a six-month high in November. Fund managers based outside Korea bought a net $226.2 million of the nation's shares this month through yesterday, according to stock exchange data.”

Figure 3 South Korea’s won as of November 18^th close, courtesy of Ed Yardeni (www.yardeni.com)

The Korean Won also a victim to the 1997 Asian Crisis presently shows of a steady and robust rebound (see Figure 3) in the wake of the downside overshoot. Again, perceived interest rate premiums have been spurring its present currency gains!

Ms. Soon notes of the gains of the other regional currencies such as Thai Baht (+.3%) to 41.28, Singapore dollar (+.06%) to $1.6827 and the Taiwan dollar to $33.517. Formerly US dollar pegged currencies were also up, the Malaysian ringgit (+.24%) to $3.77 and China’s renmimbi (+.05%) to 8.0765.

Aside from remittances Ms. Soon also notes of the other currency analysts views of growing spread differentials for the Philippine currency responsible for its current gains, ``The currency yesterday extended gains to a 29-month high after a report this week showed inflation rose at the fastest pace in three months in November, stoking speculation of an interest-rate increase next week....The consumer price index advanced 7.1 percent from a year earlier, up from 7 percent in the previous two months, the National Statistics Office said on Dec. 6. The currency added 1.4 percent through the end of October after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its key interest rate on Oct. 20 to curb inflation from higher fuel prices. The bank on Nov. 17 kept its key interest rate at 7.5 percent.”

What am I driving at? The US dollar’s sterling gains this year relative to its major trading partners has been primarily prompted by the view of better returns relative to currency yield spreads as a result of the 12 ‘measured’ increases by the US Federal Reserves on its interbank lending rate from 1% to 4.0% with another rate increase anticipated this Tuesday, December 13th. To quote the IMF’s December 2005 Financial Market Update (emphasis mine), ``The U.S. dollar appreciated as growth and interest rate differentials remained in favor of the United States and outweighed concerns over structural weaknesses, leading to robust investment inflows. Foreign demand for U.S. dollar financial assets, particularly bonds, remained in excess of amounts needed to finance the country’s current account deficit...Emerging market bond spreads tightened to record low levels on improving fundamentals and the search for yield.”

In other words, today’s $1.9 trillion daily traded currency markets are obsessed with the chase for yields emanating from a glut of credit and money, prompting portfolio flows into currencies that maintains a prospective positive cash premium spread relative to comparable anchor currencies, such as the US Dollar, Euro or Japanese Yen. This spread arbitrage is widely known as the ‘Carry Trade’. Hence, the Philippine currency is NOT exempt from trading strategies assimilated by portfolio managers and thereby derives its strength LESS from the ‘seen’ remittance flows but mainly from the ‘unseen’ portfolio flows. Empirical evidence such as the declining peso denominated and dollar denominated sovereign bond yields suggests of indicators supportive of this view, i.e. being investor supported and so as with partial signs into the Phisix based on net foreign buying~ in spite of present consolidation.

However, this yield spread arbitrage trend is unlikely to persist once the US Federal Reserves ceases its interbank rate increases which may come into fruition by early 2006.

This is NOT to say that the Peso’s recent climb would reverse under such scenario, but rather once the structural infirmities of the US dollar would come into full view, as in 2002-2004, what could be expected in the currency marketplace would be a refocus on the present state of underlying fundamentals moored on growing intra-region economic and financial ties and the individual performance of emerging market economies.

Figure 4, Emerging Market and Global Yield differential spreads courtesy of IMF/JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch

As the recent IMF Financial Market Review (see Figure 4) notes (emphasis mine), ``Despite the rise in short-term rates in the United States, emerging markets have proven remarkably resilient to a variety of shocks, with emerging market external bond spreads falling to all-time lows. This resilience has been fostered by significant improvements in fundamentals, with emerging market countries having significantly reduced public debt-to-GDP ratios since 2002 due to strong economic growth, appreciating currencies and, in many cases, strong primary fiscal surpluses. Furthermore, external financing requirements for emerging market sovereigns and corporates have continued to decline as commodity prices rise and global growth boosts remittances from overseas workers.”

In short, the US dollar bear market in 2002- 2004 helped boosted fundamentals of emerging market assets particularly relative to sovereign and corporate bonds and had been doing so despite the recent rally seen with the world’s anchor currency. The realignment towards the purview of fundamentals from the yield perspective could help propel the Peso to maintain its momentum for further MODERATE gains in the coming year/s.

One must be reminded that the PESO has LAGGED the region such that today’s outperformance could be construed as simply a classic case of cyclical recovery.

In the present global economic milieu, immense disparities of purchasing power between developed and emerging market economies have created substantial economic opportunities for trade, service, goods production/manufacturing and financial exchange arbitrage, largely fueled by the web enabled technological revolution in information and communication services. The offshoot of this phenomenon has been to facilitate wealth redistribution to emerging market economies. It is for this reason why global capital flows are expected to continue to take advantage of Asia’s rapidly expanding economies, swelling consumer class backed by young demographics and fast developing markets.

For instance, the Philippines is ranked among the lowest in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as measured by the Economist’s Big Mac Index as of June 9^th (Peso at 54.95 or higher prior to the article’s composition). In US dollar terms a Big Mac cost $1.47 in the Philippines compared to $3.06 in the United States, $1.54 in Hong Kong, $2.34 in Japan, $1.53 in Indonesia, $2.17 in Singapore, $2.49 in South Korea, $2.41 in Taiwan and $1.48 in Thailand. Whereas the pegged currencies then of China and Malaysia (scrapped July 21^st) where at $1.27 and $1.38, respectively. Essentially, this ‘PPP undervaluation’ could be one of the principal reasons behind the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) as well as the Shared Service and Outsourcing (SSO) boom we are seeing at present (see November 14 to 18 edition: Age Of Internet Boosts Domestic Economic Environment) and a foundation for the Peso’s sustained recovery (barring further governance lapses or political instability).

Albeit I would caution you from adhering to some outlooks that give emphasis to simply technical dimensions in predicting the future directional values of the Peso. One must be reminded that economic construct of the Philippines is far distinct than its neighbors to assume a corollary.

However, going back to fundamental potentials, Goldman Sachs which four years ago, predicted the rise of the “BRIC”, the Brazil, India, Russia and China emerging market paragons with potentials to become significant economies relative to the world have now added its next eleven candidates to its roster.

Bloomberg Asian analyst William Pesek quotes Mr. Jim O'Neill, London-based head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, dubbing the next generation of potential BRIC’s as ``Next Eleven, the list includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam” based from the criteria which includes “macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies and quality of education.”

Of course, this sanguine outlook does not presume or gloss over risks or incidences without any road bumps. As mentioned in the past, the present macro risks includes the sharp unwinding of intrinsic imbalances such as a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, a real estate led consumer retrenchment in the US, a collapse in the value of the Japanese Yen, a US dollar crash, a trade war or wave of protectionism, surge of consumer price inflation...among the others that may lead to unnerving investors, a possible liquidity crunch or portfolio outflows and reverse the pervasively positive sentiment for the region and its asset classes.

The risks could also be insulated in nature with regards to the domestic arena, particularly political destabilization and possible governance or policy lapses that could derail the semblance of progress as evidenced by the positive gains evinced by domestic financial assets.

World’s Mountain of Debts, The Bullion Crosses the Maginot Line

``The fundamental question is whether a central bank can manage the supply of money and credit better than the free market otherwise would. We shouldn't kid ourselves about the true nature of the Fed, which is inherently incompatible with real free market capitalism. Centralized planning of the money supply is a form of economic control that significantly affects prices, wages, and production levels.”-Congressman Ron Paul

If inordinate liquidity drives the global equity assets, various carry trades and the creation of myriad financial claims intermediaries have likewise spawned rising asset classes on a global scale.

To show you the collective thrusts of global governments underpinning the present inflationary cycle we note that government printing presses have been in full throttle cranking out eye boggling debts in an effort to appease short term demands by voters and investors alike. With the advent of paperless electronic money, today’s money system is produced by simply pressing on a single button.

Analyst David Fuller of Fullermoney.com says that the reason why all central banks are flooding the money system with paper money is because:

1. No country wants a strong currency due to globalization's competitive pressures.

2. They still fear deflation more than inflation.

3. They believe that they can get away with printing money because wage pressures are muted while China and other developing countries keep the cost of manufactured goods down.

Of course one cannot discount that given the high leverage of the today’s monetary system, the only way out of the debt cycle aside from debt repudiation is to invariably print more money to drive down the value of their currencies which they will use to pay back creditors!

Debt Pyramid Courtesy of Larry Edelson for Safe Money/Weiss Inc.

``Where you find major debt excesses — that’s where you can also expect the greatest pressures on governments to generate more inflation.” notes Larry Edelson of Weiss Inc.. Mr. Edelson enumerates the geographical breakdown of private and public debts into the following:

Europe: $2.6 trillion

Asia (excluding China): $747 billion

Latin America: $760 billion

Third-world countries overall: Some estimates place third world debt at $2.1 trillion.

In the USA: Over $39 trillion. That’s more than $141,000, for every man, woman and child.

To consider these are interest bearing debt instruments which does not include:

the derivatives market which in the US alone stand at $96.2 trillion (Comptroller of the Currency).

Other financial obligations not included are the US government’s future state welfare commitments in Medicare and Social Security to the tune of $20 TRILLION, according to the US General Accounting Office study.

With similar welfare obligations subscribed to by governments of major industrialized economies as Japan and Germany.

Obligations by private companies to guarantee mortgage/asset backed securities underwritten by agencies as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In short, the mountain of debt has become so pervasive that it adds up to about $200 trillion (see table beside) or about 3 times more than the world’s GDP!

So while the inflationary nature of central bankers mostly in cahoots with politicians have spawned rising assets values, it has also fostered a highly levered consumer demand and excess capacities in various other parts of the world.

Today, the global commodity cycle has likewise been an outgrowth of the inflationary tendencies of collective governments.

Gold, Economist John Maynard Keynes’ (the paramount icon of Central bankers and politicians) barbaric metal crossed the ‘Maginot line’ to close above the $500 threshold level and register a 22-year high at $503.3 per oz.! Other metals hit pivotal milestones, Silver at an 18-year high, copper and lead to FRESH record highs, aluminum to a 16-year high and zinc to a 15-year high! Even sugar hit a 9-year high while cattle futures hit a two year high.

30-year Gold Chart Pre-Breakout courtesy of kitco.com

Some central bankers as Argentina, South Africa and Russia have aired their intent to increase Gold into their reserves, while the opening of the Dubai Gold and commodities exchange has expanded investor’s access to commodities.

First, my predictions for gold to hit these levels at this time frame have been attained albeit we could see some profit taking in the near future following its extended rise. To share the observation of CLSA’s jetsetting analyst Chris Wood, ``It is also hard to escape the thought that gold might be rising in the short term for the simple reason that just about everything else has been rising too.”

Second, for as long as central bankers continue with their inflationary proclivities, fiat currency values of all cuts will continue to see massive depreciations of their intrinsic values relative to finite precious metals and other commodities, regardless of a hyperinflationary or a deflationary outcome.

Third, gold has cut a swath along major currency levels signifying a new phase in its bullmarket and underscoring my outlook (see September 12 to 16 edition Gold At Fresh 17 Year Highs; Currency-wide bullmarket begins!). To quote veteran analyst Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters and one of Wall Street top market timers,

``Gold has entered a new phase. This phase is characterized by gold separating itself from all paper currencies including the dollar. It's clear that something has changed -- that gold is now being accepted by sophisticated investors, not as a speculation, but as an alternative currency. Thus, over recent weeks while the dollar was strong, gold has continued to climb. Such action would have been considered almost impossible even a few months ago.

``Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 18-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors."

Fourth, rising gold prices across all major currencies are not merely signs of attendant inflation (expansionary money policies and NOT rising prices) but rather symptomatic of underlying monetary stress in contrast to what has been parlayed by mainstream media. While gold has risen alongside the US dollar in the interim, this does not mean that the US dollar’s woes are over (see above). Nor does Warren Buffett’s trimming of his anti-US dollar losses suggest that he capitulates! In fact, outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan in his latest public appearance admonishes on the possible significant impact from the fiscal imbalances ``In the end, the consequences for the U.S. economy of doing nothing could be severe.''

Lastly, gold is now prominently featured as an alternative investment class which has slowly pervaded into the mainstream school of thought. Alongside most of the contrarian analysts, I believe that gold is in a fledging phase of its bullmarket cycle with conservative targets at $873 per oz (1980 nominal high) and about $1,800 (inflation adjusted) over the coming years. It is when mainstream bankers and hard core central bankers ‘capitulates’ or turn into the bullish gold camp when its climax would have been reached. As far as we are concerned the indicators of bullishness are still within the periphery.

The Transmutation of Liquidity.

One of Wall Street's favorite aphorism "This time its different" is frequently used in defense of "deficits don't matter" arguments citing the following pretexts; the US as the world's monetary printing press, safest investment haven, foremost beneficiary to the technological evolution in information and communication among others. Yet, hardly one of these apologists have brought up on why and how such deficits persists....particularly the transformation of liquidity through various innovative 'structured finance' vehicles or instruments. This is entirely the kernel of "this time is different" paragon or what allows the deficits to continue; the transmutation of liquidity.

As to its sustainability and or the ability to subvert business or economic cycles, I put this into doubt primarily because business or economic cycles are primarily driven by base human attributes, namely, greed, hope and fear. For as long as investment decisions are molded out of these human traits, cycles will always hold no matter the technological breakthroughs. To quote Ludwig von Mises in Human Action, "Economics, as a branch of the more general theory of human action, deals with all human action, i.e., with mans purposive aiming at the attainment of ends chosen, whatever these ends may be." Ergo, deficits DO matter and cycles WILL NOT end. Like the fear of the realization of pandemics, these liquidity mutations once stretched to the limits will most possibly end up in tears.

Quoted at the Philippine Daily Inquirer

Professor Ciel Habito quotes your blogger in his column today, here is an excerpt:

THE STOCK MARKET AND THE FOREIGN exchange market may be looking upbeat these days, but as I said last week, that shouldn't mean it's time to celebrate, gloat, and/or get complacent. Too many people, specially those in high places, would like us to believe that positive market movements are due to internal developments within our economy. The implementation of the expanded VAT, in particular, tends to be given more credit than it deserves for supposedly lifting market sentiment, and even improving confidence in the economy in general. It should be welcome news if there is indeed stronger confidence from the business community in our economic outlook. But are recent positive market movements in fact being driven by improved confidence due to internal developments within the country?

Fickle funds

Not quite, according to my friend Benson Te, an exceptionally perceptive market analyst whose contrarian analyses have consistently been affirmed and given him gloating rights once in a while. For some time now, he has been pointing out that developments in the domestic stock and currency markets largely mirror the trends in the markets of the entire Asia-Pacific region. One only needs to eyeball the graphs of the Asia-Pacific Dow Jones index and of the Phisix to see how closely they move together.

To read the rest of the article press on this link ...

Thanks Prof. Habito!

Copper To A Lifetime High, But May Fall Warns Dr. Faber

Copper prices soared to a lifetime high despite signs of global demand growth weakness, rising inventories and threats of the Chinese government to dump its reserves into the global market.

Dr. Marc Faber in his latest outlook notes that the declining rate of change of Global Currency reserves and crude oil demand may presage decline in global economic growth, emerging market stocks and industrial commodity prices.

Dr. Copper On A Tear

He also warns that anything could trigger a steep drop in copper prices and expects copper to decline by as much as 40%.

Copper inventories in the warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped another 8,594 tonnes to 73,434 tonnes in the week ended Thursday. That followed a rise in stocks of 31,975 tonnes in the previous two weeks, according to Reuters.

London Mercantile Exchange Copper stocks have also climbed from its recent record lows.

Moreover, the Chinese government has threatened to intervene to contain the price increase of copper. Last week it sold about 40,000 tons in China and has vocally threatened to unload more in London. According to MSN Money Central, China's State Reserves Bureau said this week it would auction up to 20,000 tons of spot copper next week and potentially sell 100,000 tons to try to suppress prices.

However, traders are taking the Chinese threats with a grain of salt. According to MSN Money Central “Many copper participants questioned the normally secretive SRB's intentions and thought the bureau was trying to quell the red metal's momentous rise by jawboning it down.

"It certainly feels like that's what they're doing," said a New York dealer, pointing out that while other regions were selling copper on the SRB's announcement on Wednesday, traders in China were buying it.

"And that made a lot of people very skeptical," he said.”

If Dr. Faber’s projection that world growth is indeed slowing down then in the coming months demand for copper should slowdown too. This means that current prices could have been fueled by speculative funds riding on the coattails of momentum. Hence it would be a propitious time for producers to go on an offtake hedge, considering that copper maybe peaking.

As for Copper investors, David J. DesLauriers of Resourceinvestors.com has this to say, “All of this to say that even if copper falls back to $1.80 or $1.60 or $1.40, it won’t matter, and shouldn’t make a difference to investors because none of these companies saw their shares rally on the way up anyway. Of course, knowing the market, the small producers, near-term producers, and developers will probably get beaten up nonetheless on the way down.”

“It is an unfortunate situation to find in which to find oneself, but companies who only produce copper as a by-product don’t need to share the same discounted-valuation fate – they should hedge, it is the only way to force analysts and the market to ascribe the value.”

Trouble In Paradise?

So you thought the Philippines is in such a mess huh?

Look at the pictures below

Xinhua/AP

BBC

Ah ah not Africa too. This is in France. According to a Xinhua report, ``French President Jacques Chirac has promised arrest, trials and punishment for those sowing "violence or fear" across France after arsonists struck from the Mediterranean to the German border and into central Paris for the first time....Youths set ablaze nearly 1,300 vehicles and torched businesses, schools and symbols of French authority, including post offices and provincial police stations in the tenth consecutive night of unrest across the country...

Incredible anarchy.

The Xinhua report continues``From an outburst of anger in suburban Paris housing projects, the violence has fanned out into a nationwide show of disdain for French authority. The unrest has come from youths, including the children of Arab and black Africans angered by years of unequal opportunities.”

And this has been going on for the 11th day according to the LATimes!

November 7 US dollar from Fund to High Yield Currency?

Key Benchmark Interest Rate			Currency
Country	Nov. 3, 2005	Year To Date Change	Year To Date Change^
U.S.	4.00%	1.75%	-
EURO	2.00%	0.00%	-11.80%
Australia	5.50%	0.25%	-5.52%
China	5.58%	0.27%	2.38%
Hong Kong	5.50%	1.75%	0.26%
India	5.25%	0.50%	-3.98%
Indonesia	12.25%	4.82%	-7.59%
Japan*	0.15%	0.00%	-12.59%
Korea	3.50%	0.25%	-0.80%
Malaysia	2.70%	0.05%	0.62%
Philippines	7.50%	0.75%	2.79%
Singapore	2.38%	0.92%	-3.80%
Taiwan	2.13%	0.38%	-5.46%
Thailand	3.75%	1.75%	-4.77%
*Since 2001, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has targeted the outstanding balance of the current accounts at the BOJ rather than the overnight call rate. ^Relative to the U.S. Dollar Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Thailand, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Central Bank of China (Republic of China, Taiwan), The People's Bank of China.

Table from Matthews Funds Asia

According to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen, ``The evolution of the dollar from a funding to a high-yield currency is a monumental shift in the global currency markets. The cost of funding is particularly important for exchange rates. First, it will be much more expensive to short the dollar. Second, with global equity portfolios overweight on non-US equities, the opportunity cost of not hedging against currency risk rises with the cash and short-term interest rates in the US. Third, investor risk aversion is likely to rise. With inflation the main source of risk, I don’t expect to see bonds and equities exhibit as strong an ‘offsetting’ pattern as usual.”

Rising interest rates in the US has definitely provided a boost to the US dollar while closing the yield gap among many Asian currencies. Except for the Philippines which has gained from its domestic interest hikes, as well as formerly pegged currencies as China’s remimbi and Malaysia’s ringgit, it appears that the ‘carry trade’ have shifted from borrowing low yielding Euro and Asian currencies and long Asian equities or dollar denominated assets. The current fund migration towards global equities could be such a result.

Phisix Confirms Peso's Advance!

Today’s superb rally in the Phisix came about as forecasted in my latest outlook, which was principally anchored on the premise that the domestic stockmarket would eventually confirm the Peso’s dramatic rise. As of this writing the Peso was quoted last at 54.74 according to Bloomberg while the Phisix climbed a splendid 46.9 points or 2.39% on the backdrop of Php 1.204 billion turnover. The Phisix is the best performer among Asian bourses today!

Foreign money again was responsible for today’s torrid buying. Capital inflows from overseas investors recorded a net inflow of P 231.813 million with foreign activities accounting for 58.7% of the cumulative trades. Market breadth was essentially bullish with 63 advancers against 14 decliners while 34 issues remained unchanged. In all 111 issues had been traded, which is below the 120 threshold, a statistic I use to measure local sentiment. This suggests that the locals remained net sellers in today’s activities, still skeptical of the day’s positive developments.

Because foreign money were the pillars of today’s ascent, the heavy market caps performed with gusto. Imagine BPI was in the list of top gainers usually occupied by second or third stringers. By jumping 8.65% to 56.5 one of the country’s leading banks landed on the 5^th spot. Other heavy caps performed well except for ALI and SMCB which posted declines.

Naturally various reasons would be floated as to why the Phisix rose remarkably. Most of which will be centered on current events, particularly the implementation of the EVAT. While EVAT for me is essential for the country’s fiscal health, its influence in today’s buoyant trading could be minimal. Instead, the planned reforms to be instituted by the Philippine Stock Exchange could have had a positive impact on foreign funds. In April according to the disclosure, the Phisix will shift from a market based capitalization to free float based. This means that component issues will be selected by the measure of liquidity or tradability. I think that this is an important development because liquidity is an essential consideration in the investment choices of foreign fund managers.

In addition there would be some changes in the component roster comprising the major Philippine benchmark starting December 1. Ginebra San Miguel, Ionics, Philippine National Bank, Music Corporation and JG Summit will be replaced by Banco De Oro, Manila Water, SM Investments, Pilipino Telephone and Philex Mining.

The latest round of foreign led buying resembles the sharp rise of the Phisix last June 2003 or during the onset of the cyclical advance phase. I also think we are in a late in the cycle rally, where the country lagged behind the region’s earlier advances due to political obstacles and is bound to a catch up phase.

If I am right about the Peso and the Phisix, then this is the initial upside leg which could last until the first quarter depending on the intertwined performance of the US and Asian bourses. There are many opportunities still out there.

A Freeze on Mining will Lead to More Mt. Diwalwal Fiasco

The recent mining disaster at Mt Diwawal Compostela Valley which reported 18 fatalities is an example of what happens when mining is left to small scale local miners or to illegal miners.

Most of the bishops, priests and other members of the clergy who are anti-administration have been so due to their opposition of the passage of the Mining Act of 1995. They have adopted the leftist mindset in believing that mining should be left to the locals (xenophobia) and or that it is harmful to the environment.

However, they fail to realize that the local investors do not have the technology (for efficient and socially responsible mining) and the appropriate finances to undertake these capital intensive projects. By advocating a freeze on mining, they fail to understand too that high prices of metals would NOT DETER BUT RATHER INSPIRE ILLEGAL MINING to mushroom in a country richly endowed with metals and minerals! It is simply about economics. As long as it would be profitable to mine due to high metal prices, mining activities would continue to flourish, illegitimate or legitimate. Now with insufficient expertise, technology and finances, illegal mining would only lead to more environmental degradation and more deaths, as in the recent case at Mt. Diwalwal, a dichotomy to the cause which they have been fighting for. It is another case of a proposed cure which is much worst than the disease. These members of the faith should concentrate on redeeming the souls of their constituents rather than engaging in leftist politics.

Integration of Asian Financial Markets To Improve Philippine Markets

``Everything you can imagine is real." -Pablo Picasso (1881-1973) Famous Spanish painter and sculptor

The gradual integration of the Asian Financial Markets could be gleaned as one of the bright spots or prospects for the domestic capital markets as savings could be channeled for efficient capital and investment allocations on cross border opportunities, provide for stronger financial linkages, better risk sharing and productive investments that may lead to a more resilient economic growth.

The region which holds more than $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves has also turned into a substantial holder of sovereign bonds of advanced economies. Aside, Asia received half of the world’s net private capital flows to emerging markets in 2003 and rising to about two-thirds in 2004. These are concrete evidences of the emerging relevance of Asia to the global financial markets.

In a recent speech at Melbourne, Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, enumerated several key areas where developments for future integration could take place:

``Intra-regional financial integration has lagged. For example, the extent to which investors in Asia have internationalized their portfolios by investing in other markets in the region remains quite limited. With a few notable exceptions, money and capital markets in this part of the world are clearly still fragmented and disjoint. The trend is evident across three broad asset classes:

``Data on cross-border banking show that the major foreign lenders in emerging Asia are generally European, Japanese, or U.S. institutions, notwithstanding growing interest in recent years of regional banks in cross-border acquisitions.

``Local stock markets also have a large international presence, but few foreign players come from the rest of Asia. And, foreign listings on Asian stock exchanges have been on a declining trend nearly everywhere.

``Finally, in spite of initiatives underway to promote cross-border holdings, regional integration of bond markets remains underdeveloped by most metrics. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the expanding issuance of foreign-currency-denominated bonds by Asian sovereigns and corporates is for the most part in U.S. dollars--and is marketed outside of Asia.

The initiatives to integrate and deepen capital markets could be clearly seen with the establishment of ADB’s Asianbondsonline, an ASEAN+3 initiative funded by the Government of Japan, which provides investors centralized access to information on the region’s 13 bond markets as well as the indexation of select ASEAN publicly listed companies into FTSE/ASEAN 40 and FTSE ASEAN. Both indices are meant for performance benchmarking and to “brand” ASEAN as an asset class. These vehicles would be available for retail and institutional investors via Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) or through derivatives ‘OTC’ contracts.

The share distribution of the participant countries comprising the FTSE/ASEAN portfolio based on free float and liquidity screened considerations according to the FTSE International. Singapore gets the heaviest weighting while the Philippines the least.

So far, according to BSP data, foreign portfolio flows into the country has mostly been from the Euro zone which accounted for $268 million of the $517 million cumulative outflows in 2004. ASEAN accounted for $137 million with Singapore taking up the bulk or $134.96 million while Hong Kong among the Asian Newly Industrialized Economies contributed $138.6 of the $138.87 million. With the prospective ETFs and future cross listings, we could probably expect inflows to country’s capital markets to expand incrementally.

Further, the region has also embarked on a currency swap agreement via the Chiang Mai Initiative, which aims to reduce foreign currency crisis, support foreign exchange reserves of member countries and provide sufficient liquidity and exchange rate stability within the region. The swap agreement was designed as a contingent support for countries experiencing a foreign exchange crisis to access foreign currency, mostly in US dollar, from another member country to bolster reserves until the crisis has passed.

Lately the Philippines signed an agreement with the Bank of Korea to swap $1.5 billion worth of local currencies. According to a Dow Jones report, ``In May, finance ministers from Japan, China, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, agreed to increase the size of their US$39.5 billion currency-swap program, and individual nations have since been negotiating terms of their particular deals. South Korea, for instance, has expanded its swap agreements with Japan and China as the previous arrangements expired.” In short, the region considering its horrific financial crisis experience in 1997 has undertaken measures to insure itself against the probability of a relapse.

In the continuing efforts to further integrate and strengthen the region’s financial markets, Mr. Kato further noted in his speech that it would require lengthy reforms as to induce the much needed cross border investments, these includes ``enhancing information disclosure and accounting standards, strengthening the role of minority shareholders, supporting effective creditor rights, tightening the prudential supervision of financial firms, and strengthening court processes and the judicial systems.” As well as on the regulatory side ``harmonizing the laws, regulations, tax treatment, and market structures that still prevent investors--from both within and outside Asia--from building pan-regional portfolios.”

Lastly, developing the bond market would also require the marketability of other products such as Municipal and corporate bonds, as well as Mortgage securities and other related instruments. This should provide alternative avenues for fund raising, hedging as well as market based valuations on the underlying securities.

In addition, compared to the previous commodity futures market, particularly the defunct Manila International Futures Exchange (MIFE), which traded foreign and NOT local commodities; in my opinion, a genuine local commodity futures exchange that deals with the country’s major resources or crops should be in place.

Where economics 101 tells us that “markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity”, the establishment of a commodity futures market that allows for pricing, delivery, payment and credit would essentially benefit producers and farmers. Through market based pricing, the farmers or producers would be able to realize the full value of their harvest or produce, eliminate or reduce the role of traders and middlemen and undertake hedging positions for seasonal volatilities in order to reduce risk.

Chart Buys: First Philippine Holding and Atlas Mining

Two interesting charts that I would like to share with this week.

First of which I believe that First Philippine Holdings has crossed a major inflection point, from which a state of indecision as reflected by the symmetrical triangle as shown in the chart below have been recently broken.

First Philippine Holdings

While some may argue that the developments in First Philippine Holdings (FPH) could be related to its proposed listing of its subsidiary First Gen or due to its dividend (P 1 cash ex-date October 18, special cash P 1 ex-date October 18), my inclination is that both these issues has little to do with the present breakout. I have been fundamentally bullish on the issue primarily because the company deals profitably with the sectors that I think would be the prime movers of the Philippine economy, particularly the energy and the infrastructure sectors, alongside my favorite the mining sector.

As you will note from the above chart, FPH is an uptrend given its one year outlook. However, since the Phisix peaked in March due to the spate of foreign outflows, FPH has moved lower during March to June and effectively consolidated from July to the present. It has formed what technicians would say as ‘higher lows’ where the bears have been unable to push prices lower than the previous. In effect, the symmetrical triangle is a manifestation of a stalemate between the bears and the bulls. However, it usually suggests of a continuation of the underlying trend, which in FPH’s case is an uptrend.

Last week, FPH broke out of the “sphere of indecision” with Friday’s activities built on heavy volume and a spike in share prices up about 6%. It tested its resistance level at 44.5 but closed a fluctuation lower or at 44. I believe that the momentum has switched greatly in favor of the bulls this time with a resistance breakout due possibly next week.

I would recommend a buy on breakout on this issue as it crosses the 44.5 level. The resistance levels are as follows 46.5, 49.5-50, 53-53.5, 61.5-63.5 and a stop loss on a break of 40.5 or 39 being key support levels.

Atlas Mining

The second issue which I would like to share to you is Atlas Consolidated and Mining Corp (AT).

Since its peak in February, the copper-nickel mining company has fallen in line with its industry mates but unlike the others has resolved to keep its uptrend intact as shown in the above chart. Since its recent peak in late August, AT has been on a decline forming a bullish ‘falling wedge’ pattern. As you would notice in the past, AT has the penchant for short term spikes, which incidentally allows you the opportunity for trades, if history would rhyme.

On Friday, it broke out of the falling wedge pattern on heavy volume. Aside, the technical indicators appear to support a next run. Relative Strength Index (RSI) shown on the upper window has bounced off its oversold levels while on the lower window the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) appears to have crossed, emitting bullish signals.

If Atlas would replicate its recent two spikes, I think it has an upside potential of 7.5 to 8 before retracing again. I would recommend a trade, buying at current levels and selling at the support levels, which should translate to about 30% in returns. Again, a stop loss at a break of the 5.2 support level considered, which translates to a loss of about 10%. In effect, your reward risk ratio is about 3:1.

The BIG Four Hedgers

Today’s argument is about gold mining hedges. Let us examine chart performance of the BIG Four according to GFMS “The industry’s “big four”, Barrick, AngloGold Ashanti, Placer Dome and Newcrest (who account for two thirds of the global hedge book in nominal terms)”

Barrick Gold

Placer Dome

Newcrest

anglogold ashanti

They may underperform but they are all on the rise...at least over the interim.