Telecoms: Closing the Digital Divide

The telecom sector is one areas of the controversial “digital divide” said to be the restricted to the realm of the “haves” over the “have-nots”. According to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), ``Over the last 10 years, the digital divide has been shrinking in terms of numbers of fixed phone lines, mobile subscribers, and Internet users.”

Figure 8: ITU: Closing the Digital Divide

Figure 8 shows that the tremendous growth rate in the developing world is fast closing in with that of the developed world.

In the Philippines, as an outgrowth of deregulation, subscriber take up has increased substantially. According to Nortel, ``The NTC reports that the number of mobile subscribers has doubled since 2002, reaching 32.9 million subscribers at the end of 2004, for a penetration level over 41 percent or an average of two mobile phones for every five citizens.”

In the next few years about 1 in 2 Filipinos would be a mobile subscriber; this means that technological innovation brought about by entrepreneurial undertaking and competition has driven down cost of ownership or increased the affordability levels that have enabled the “have-nots” to enjoy the privileges previously limited to the “haves”. We will see the more of same trend across the digital sphere. Matthews Funds Asia says it best (emphasis mine), ``the lifeblood of technology industries is still innovation. It sustains the industry through varying economic cycles. It is embedded in the strategies of successful companies. Asian technology appears to be headed toward an equilibrium, in which knowledge will be as much a driving force as capital, and marketplace demand more influential than government decree. The real era of innovation in Asia may lie ahead.”

Global Markets: A Financial Storm Ahead?

``A man can fail, but he isn't a failure until he blames someone else." J. Paul Getty, industrialist

Now to the bad news. With more evidences emanating from a considerably softening US real estate industry percolating into a wider spectrum of its economy, market signals appears to be gradually confirming risks of an accelerated decline which may surprise the “goldilocks” outlook espoused by mainstream market participants.

First, the rallying global bonds appear to be well underway indicating future liberal policies in the face of the prospects of more intensive economic decline. Recall, that the bond markets lead the Fed policy directions as we previously tackled in our past editions. According to the well respected independent research outfit BCA Research (emphasis mine), ``There is scope for further downside in yields as the market brings forward its expectations of Fed rate cuts in response to the faltering U.S. housing sector, and as global growth slows. While all major bond markets will stay in rally mode, U.S. yields will fall relative to the rest of the G7, as is typically the case during Treasury rallies. Bottom line: stay bullish on global bonds, and overweight the U.S. market.”

BCA thinks that there is room for a deeper decline in bond yields and that the bond markets have been positioning in anticipation that global central banks led by the US Federal Reserves will trim rates in the future. If this outlook should hold true, trimming of rates by the Fed has been typically associated with or in reaction to a contraction or a recession!

Figure 3 stockcharts.com: US dollar breaks to the Upside!

Second, the US dollar broke on the upside following a rangebound activity as shown in Figure 3 for most of the August until last week. The Bollinger band on the lower window denotes of low volatility over the same period. And low volatility implies upcoming heightened volatility, in which case, the current upside breakout could signify a nascent upside trend for the US dollar.

According to Morgan Stanley’s Currency analyst Stephen Jen, ``Investor risk-reduction could ‘turbo-charge’ the dollar and, ironically, lead to dollar strength…we think that the dollar could actually rally in a deep recession.” In the present setting, a strong US dollar supported by rallying bonds amplifies the case of a severity of a potential hard landing.

Figure 4 stockcharts.com: End of A Summer Rally?

Third, major US equity benchmarks as shown in Figure 4, appear to have broken down synchronically from their bearish rising wedge formation, as the summer season ends.

Moreover, the conventional fashion of the recent breakdown had been accompanied by higher volume giving strength to indications that such downside moves could in most probability, continue. The apparent erosion of the strength from the bulls lends credence to the seasonal infirmities of September for US equities.

Figure 5: stockcharts.com: WTIC Breaksdown!

Fourth, oil prices have likewise broken down from its 3 year trendline as shown in Figure 5. Is it the end of the bullmarket in Oil? Over the long horizon...I doubt so. But the present motion certainly seems to corroborate the view of the possible reemergence of a “risk reduction” trade.

Figure 6: stockcharts.com: Gold breaking down too?

Lastly, gold prices despite having rallied early last week appeared to have succumbed to the prevailing dour sentiment in the financial markets. During the last three sessions, gold declined to test on a major support level at $607 for the fourth time in three months on Friday, as shown in Figure 6 (blue arrows).

Nonetheless, despite the bullish end of year seasonality outlook which favors higher prices for gold, the interim technical picture reveals of a trend pattern of lower highs and a flat support level. This “descending triangle” pattern translates to losing vitality for the bulls to lift its prices, while on the other hand allowing the bears to accrue more momentum in their favor to wrest control of gold’s price direction.

Further, the low volatility on the lower window of the chart appears to support the case of a forthcoming big swing! Either Gold breaks to the upside, over and above the $640 level to expunge the bearish pattern or it breaks down from $607, the latter of which is more likely given the uniformity of signals emitted by the cross-asset class benchmarks.

The bears may even lead gold to test its previous low of $540 where I believe potential support from the seasonality factors or physical demand would step in. I strongly suspect too of the Europe’s Central banks unseen hands in the recent decline with the close of the European Central Bank Gold Agreement on its calendar year which ends on the 26^th of September. You see, central banks have the motivation to “manage” our inflation expectations by keeping a lid on Gold’s prices among other measures as altering statistics to suit their needs.

However, over the long run, I remain bullish on gold even as present trends appear not to be supportive of its short-term case. Anyway, no trend goes on a straight line.

In the same context, despite the recent gains of the Phisix, we see that the risks levels have risen enough to merit once again raising cash as to preserve capital in the assumption of a furtherance of these recent trend signals. It remains to be seen if the domestic equity benchmark and the peso could withstand, be insulated and diverge from the potential untoward developments in the financial markets abroad.

For the moment it looks like that the deflationist camp is getting ready to open the champagne bottles.

PSE Warns of Speculation: Missing The Forest for the Trees

I’d like to also point out that the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) recently issued a word of caution to the public on what appears to be growing speculative activities seen in the broad market which I find as quite bizarre or if not ludicrous. According to the PSE, ``Based on the recent two (2) months of trade data initially reviewed, there are nineteen (19) listed companies that have increased its share price ranging from 30% up to 860%, breaching trading bands under the PSE Rules. Total traded volume and value for these stocks were 7B shares and Php2B, respectively, and amount to 10% of the total value of PSEi for the same period. Approximately, 60% of active Trading Participants traded at least one (1) of the stocks in review and 24% traded three (3) or more. These stocks also consistently reached 50% a number of times within the same review period and some for two (2) to three (3) consecutive days. All these activities happen amidst consistent general declaration of the issuers to have no known basis for the steady climb of its share prices.”

While I admire the PSE on its “good faith” for its attempt to curb what appears to be a snowballing of punts or the swelling of speculative activities, it seems that the PSE has overlooked the fact that financial markets in general have intrinsic or natural inclinations to gyrate based on short-term speculations. The PSE should take heed of the words of the prominent industrialist J. Paul Getty, founder of Getty Oil (emphasis mine), ``For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips. The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself.”

These warnings, instead of generating added public interest towards the market, may prompt for even more aversion on the unwarranted implications that the domestic market is vulnerable to either “gambling” or manipulation. This essentially negates their present efforts (e.g. nationwide roadshows) to boost the demand side in their thrust to advance the cause of enhancing the present state of domestic stock market.

What, I think, needs to be addressed instead, more than just simply issuing inane warnings, is the strict monitoring or surveillance of possible manipulative activities undertaken by cabals or groups intending to hype or corner certain issues. Warnings like these are nothing but bad publicity, yet it actually misses the forest for the trees.

For instance, the PSE glosses over the main drivers of these activities: surplus liquidity! The tidal wave of excessive liquidity throughout the world today has palpably filtered into the local markets through the transmission mechanism of the Philippine currency’s price appreciation. As we have noted previously, a strong peso and declining yields have most likely underpinned these “search for higher returns” phenomenon now manifested via speculative punts. As long as these underlying incentives remain, the trend towards broadbased speculations would likely continue.

Let me divert for a while, in an article, I recalled that the PSE president commented that about only 1% of the Philippine population are invested in the domestic stock market today. 1% of a population of 84 million translates to only about 840,000 individuals! That speaks of how unprogressive and underdeveloped our stock market is. For some to comment that these heightened speculative activities signify a “top” in the market operates on the premises of a lackluster growth of domestic market participants, aside from the presumption that funds circulating within its spheres are limited, which in my view, is highly flawed.

Figure 2: McKinsey Quarterly: Asian Capital Markets

Figure 2 from McKinsey Quarterly is a comparative chart of capital markets of Asia and other select countries around the world. While I extracted this from McKinsey Quarterly’s article about China’s financial markets, the informative expanse of the structural makeup of the region’s capital markets prompted me to include this noteworthy chart in this week’s outlook. It gives us a clue why the Philippines remain at the posterior in terms of economic development.

Except for Japan whose equity markets have been shellacked by a bubble bust down by about 80% from peak to trough, aside from its massive pump priming activities undertaken during its 14 years of economic doldrums which ballooned its debt to about 160% of its GDP, most progressive countries could be observed as having less (or declining) reliance on the traditional sources of funding as banks and governments, while equity markets have contributed significantly to their progress. In the words of market guru George Soros, ``The stock market is one of the most important repositories of collateral”. Yes, we could also see that the corporate debt market could also be one area of growth.

This leads us back to the speculative activities in the market. I have noted of the rising trend in the number of issues traded, where I would theorize that this trend have incorporated new participants and new money into the market, which has provided a flanking support to the largely foreign driven Phisix today.

The local investor base is coming from an extremely low side in terms of penetration level as percentage to the population, ergo if the stronger peso would be able to induce more participation from the domestic investors or even from overseas workers or migrants, let us assume from the present 1% to 5%, you can just imagine the sheer magnitude of support the Phisix would have at its present advance cycle.

That is why I am bullish and would speculate on issue/s that are related to the equity markets itself aside from other possible growth areas in the field of non-traditional finance. Call me a speculator too, in the John Steinbeck (Nobel Prize winner for literature) fashion (emphasis mine) ``I don’t know how speculation got such a bad name, since I know of no forward leap which was not fathered by speculation.”

A Splendid Week For Philippine Assets

``When a thing is done, it's done. Don't look back. Look forward to your next objective.” -General George Marshall, Chief of Staff, US Army

This had been a remarkable week for the Philippine financial markets. Not only seen with the magnificent performance of the Philippine Composite benchmark, the Phisix, but also of the Philippine Peso and the domestic bond instruments.

First, Philippine bonds significantly outperformed its peers to bring down coupon yields in both Peso and dollar based debt instruments to March 2006 levels. This comes as the national government recently announced of its plan to swap its short-term dollar instruments with longer dated issues. The government aims to lengthen its debt maturity profile and to take advantage of favorable market conditions into lowering of its financing costs.

Second, the Philippine currency continued to outshine the region as it surged to a fresh four year high milestone at 50.25 last Wednesday, but closed at 50.49 to a US dollar or .48% higher over the week. Economic growth and portfolio inflows had been attributed to its recent activities, according to Bloomberg’s Clarissa Tan, ``The Philippine economy grew the most in the second quarter in a year, while growth in exports was the quickest in six years. Money from abroad flowing into the nation's stocks helped push the benchmark share index to its highest close this week in more than three months.”

Third, the Phisix was the second best performer in the region up 2.09% following Vietnam’s outstanding 2.98% advance over the week in a rather mixed region. While foreign money, as usual, shored up the domestic bellwether, the intensity of the inflows had been seen mostly diffused throughout index component issues. Issues with over 50million pesos worth of inflows reached the same levels as the Phisix peaked last May or prior to the most recent global selloff, while the positive spread between the inflows and the outflows likewise reached a level seen during the euphoric phase during the second quarter.

Figure 1: Daily Wealth/Stockcharts.com: Large Caps Outperforming

Put bluntly, foreign money appears to have concentrated their accumulation activities not limited to select issues but towards broad-based large market cap Phisix component issues. The shift towards large cap investing could be seen as possible defensive tactical maneuvers which seemingly validates the outlook of a possible moderation of economic growth in the global economy. As shown in Figure 1, the trend towards large caps investing could be a global one as depicted with parallel developments in Wall Street.

More importantly, this week’s buoyant activities comes in the face of a decline in the US equity markets which had been strongly correlated to the world markets, as well as the Phisix, since the second quarter of the year. This seemingly unique divergence, while not to be construed yet as a definitive trend, as one week does not a trend make, could possibly presage on the future outlook for the Phisix. The resiliency of last week’s gains could probably be tested by another bout of global “risk-aversion” activities.

Posen: Faddish Export Promotion Is a Heavy Burden for Any Economy

``Entrepreneurs are simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage."-Niccolo Machiavelli

Finally, as the Peso has put one into the books following its milestone high, you can expect a hue over these developments as “bad for the economy” in the coming days from various experts who would recommend the “management” or interventionism in the currency.

I pointed in the past that for the longest time the peso has devalued, yet such price mechanism has not worked out favorably to expand our export sector which incidentally despite growing nominally, has been declining based on the rate of growth during the past few years. In essence, the depressed peso has not only lowered the standards of living of the Filipino people, it has not uplifted the export sector to gain a critical mass to improve on our lives. In other words, the export sector’s problem is much more than a factor of price mechanism. As an analogy, if price of labor would be the single most important variable for determining the recent trend of outsourcing investments, then Africa and not China or Asia would be the major beneficiary, considering the mostly politically blighted environment. Again I see this predicament of ours, as a complex product of bungled regulatory policies and extensive interventionism.

I’d like to quote extensively Economist Adam Posen of the Institute for International Economics, in his articulate article, ``Faddish Export Promotion Is a Heavy Burden for Any Economy” for making a good case against Export Promotion (emphasis mine)...

``In spite of the frequently cited examples of export-led growth for some developing countries, there is mounting evidence that the benefits to growth of countries' engagement in trade are attributable to openness. These include the direct benefits of importing lower prices and greater variety; the efficiency gains from challenging (rather than protecting) domestic businesses; and policy choices that contribute to a broadly liberal and market-oriented framework across the economy. Exports taken on their own, the usual narrower target of competitiveness policy, are not correlated with average per capita income growth.

``A focus on export competitiveness usually leads to actively harmful policies, beyond simply wasted resources and rhetoric. If exports are the public criterion of economic success, policymakers can meet that goal only by self-destructive means: depreciating a country's currency, thus eroding the purchasing power and the accumulated wealth of citizens; depressing wages in export sectors, either directly or through relative deflation vis-à-vis trading partners, thus cutting real incomes and domestic demand; subsidizing or protecting exporting companies, thus distorting investment decisions and locking in old technologies and businesses at the expense of new entrants; or promoting national champions, thus increasing both wasteful public spending and the costs to domestic households and businesses.”

Like those who espouse divergent ideas, I believe, that our common goal is to see the best approach for country’s progress, but unlike them, my view is one of the unconventional and unorthodox, and rests on the grounds of personal responsibility to enhance one’s life and that of the society, and not through dependency. By allowing markets to function at its fullest, enterprises should proliferate, baneful politics would be greatly reduced and standards of living would eventually rise. Remembering the battlecry of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiao Peng to open China’s economy to the world, ``to be rich is glorious”.

Market Dissonance: Bull or Bear Amidst A Slowdown?

``The market doesn’t reward fools for long.” — Timothy Vick, author of How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett

We should not forget that from the second quarter of the year the Phisix, and Global markets have trailed the movements of key US equity benchmarks or that global markets have been strongly correlated to the activities of the US equity markets. The strong performances of the world indices appears to be factoring in a US “soft landing” scenario, although in my view, this has been supported by liquidity arising from unofficial channels.

Figure 4: stockcharts.com: What slowdown? Volatility Index shows complacency

As shown in Figure 4, the volatility Index as measured by the VIX has been treading lower following the May scare and equally supported by declining volatility in the technical indicator the Bollinger Bands. This implies that market participants seems to be discounting a disorderly unwinding of the US slowdown...signs of bizarre complacency. Could the bulls be right to treat such slowdown as simply a “wall of worry” to climb? We will see.

Which brings us to the seasonality factor as shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Chartoftheday.com: Worst month of the Year

September based on the return averages has been the worst month of the year for US equities since 1950 and 1980, according to chartoftheday.com. And if seasonality reasserts its relevance we could see some heightened volatility heading into the last quarter. But the good news is that in the face of the weakest month is an offsetting factor, the strongest quarter...the year end rally, which filters over to the start of the year. So in a tactical perspective, assuming the carryover effects of seasonality, the September dips should be used as an opportunity to accumulate.

Figure 6: stockcharts.com: End of Commodity Bullmarket?

But again, we take market signals on a macro scale in search of possible clues for directional paths. While US equities appear to be scoffing at the outlook of a turbulent unraveling of its high impact real estate industry, the furious rally in the bond markets appears to be indicative of more worries. Moreover, the breakdown by the commodity benchmark CRB index, as shown in Figure 6, led by the oil and energy sector has been giving the deflationist camp reasons to celebrate...

Figure 7: stockcharts.com: HUI-Gold bullish technicals

I am not easily swayed by the deflation story though, especially considering that governments by nature, especially those with the democratic leanings, will exhaustively work to appease over the short-term the demands of its voters. Besides, it is rare to see such governments work on the unpopular and painstaking reforms for the long term good.

In addition, US consumers may find alternative avenues to fund their profligate spending habits, to quote Morgan Stanley’s Andy Xie, ``As the US housing bubble bursts, US consumption could come down also. This is not assured. The US has developed an entrenched culture of ‘borrow and spend’. It allowed the US consumption to survive the tech burst, 9-11 and the energy shock. The ‘borrow and spend’ culture could allow US consumption to survive again.” Under such circumstances we presume that the credit bubble dynamics will continue to expand.

Having said so, the key mining index HUI or the Amex Gold bug has withstood the recent selling pressures in the monetary metal, which may have been due to possible stealth sales by European Central Banks under the European Gold agreement which is slated to end its calendar year this month, as shown in Figure 7. This serves a non-confirmation in the decline of gold or a divergence.

Since gold finds the gist of its gains during the last semester of the year based on consumer demands on jewelry due to traditional festivals in India, China and the Christmas season in the US, such fundamental support has backed gold’s strong end-of-the-year seasonality. Further as gold has rebounded from its lows, as shown in the lower window of the above chart, the Amex Gold bugs appears to be testing for an upside bullish breakout from its bullish ascending triangle formation. Once the breakout is confirmed the likelihood, that gold, silver and other metal related stocks would follow suit.

Peso and the Phisix: This Time Is Different?

The Philippine Peso raced to a 4-year high following a successful breach of the psychological threshold level at 51. The local currency closed 1.26% stronger at 50.735 per US dollar on Friday and was Asia’s best performing currency. Year-to-date, the Peso has firmed by about 4.4%.

Naturally, the strength of the Peso has been likewise reflected in the activities of the local financial markets. As previously shown Philippine sovereign bonds had been imbued with significant portfolio flows as to see its nominal yields decline. Similarly, the local equity market as measured by the Philippine composite index or the Phisix has been on an upswing following last May’s global “risk aversion” scare.

As I have noted in numerous occasions, at the margins it is capital flows to the local financial markets that has lifted the local currency more than the remittances, economic growth and other reasons cited by mainstream experts. And importantly, such flows have been dictated by the developments in the global financial arena. For instance, since the world financial markets has anticipated the US Federal Reserve to hold in abeyance its program of raising interest rates, the US dollar has resumed its secular decline against most Asian currencies and against currencies of its major trading partners.

Let me remind you that in today’s dynamics, the financial realm drive the real economy and not the other way around. You just have to take into account the ocean or seemingly boundless stream of liquidity emanating from monetary and non-monetary sources to support the exchange of widgets and services. In short, I am strictly referring to inflation. While global central banks appear to be in a tightening mode they have been doing it perfunctorily. The humongous build up of aggregate liabilities will require MORE dosages of liquidity injection to support the present framework, otherwise risk a financial system meltdown. Would the world’s political leadership allow this?

Further, you want to talk about a major source of income inequality? Look no further than the inflationary tendencies of the world’s collective monetary authorities. Inflation benefits those who FIRST access the newly issued money who can buy at yesterday’s prices while the late recipients (the public) buys at today’s higher prices. Guess who are the primary beneficiaries of “money created from thin air”? The Government, particularly the Politicians and their executives, and the bankers. For the former, it is of no wonder why they fight with tooth and nail to assume the jurisdiction of, and staunchly justify the Spending Other People’s Money (SOPM). Yet, based on historical accounts not just domestically but worldwide, in a very significant degree, SOPM programs have led to massive distortions and imbalances and has greatly reduced standards of living.

Figure 1: The Phisix (Red) Gets Flanking Support From Strengthening Peso (black)

Back to the world of asset driven growth dynamics, as shown in Figure 1, the incipience of the inverse correlation between the Phisix and the Peso could be seen in the second semester of 2005. As the Peso firmed, local investors had been prompted back to the market on the prospects of higher returns. This again is on the account of lower yields from dollar assets, aside from of course, the declining price value relative to the Peso. Some have commented that chasing yields does not necessarily translate to bullishness. In the financial markets, one earns by buying shares from and selling shares to another. Put differently, everybody is at the mercy of someone else’s expectations and buying power. If one EXPECTS to make money from the market how can one be not bullish? Markets are, after all, a mind game.

Last week’s market internals reveal of a dramatic upsurge in local investor participation as gauged by the number of issues traded. Number of issues traded for me, represents as a quasi-sentiment indicator. The more the issues traded, the bullish the outlook of local investors. As you can see in figure 2, number of issues traded has been on an uptrend since 2003. And this has apparently supported the climb of the Phisix as shown in Chart 1.

Figure 2 Surging Number of issues traded

For the week, number of issues traded hit a level almost similar to May, when the Phisix hit its apogee high of over 2,500. This had been equally supported by a remarkable spike, on the differentials of the advance-decline indicator, which hit a level similar to January’s 2005 peak! In fact, several companies suffering from a dearth of liquidity have shown electrifying performances.

While these frenzied speculative activities on the broad market coincided with major “inflection points” in the past, as in 1^st quarter 2005 and May 2006 peaks, I’d like to emphasize that there has been some crucial differences: previous reversals had been externally driven, and the strong peso as sublime impetus for local investors into the market started only during the second semester of 2005. This means that while speculative activities may represent some signs of overconfidence and broadbased recklessness, the paucity of data under similar conditions to suggest of potential patterns makes me uncertain if this development would actually represent another prospective “inflection” point considering the “chase for returns” theme. In other words, different conditions could most likely translate to different outcomes.

In addition, we have not seen the longstanding effects of the rebounding Peso on the Phisix, as the equity benchmark has operated mainly on a tormented legacy of a Peso devaluation since I laid my blessed eyes on this world. In short, while I abhor quoting on this Wall Street phrase, I am compelled to...``This time it is different”. This suggests that if the long-term trend of the peso is to strengthen (which I think it would...out of regional considerations and barring domestic political shocks) then the domestic equity market would essentially be operating under new conditions. So while some patterns may have some subtle pertinence, as a whole the Phisix would be thriving under an undefined landscape. And if initial circumstances where to be utilized as a barometer, the prospective trends look auspicious and supportive of the underpinning market cycles for the Philippine financial markets...again barring any shocks.

Lastly, present market circumstances tell us that global capital flows are the indispensable drivers of the world financial markets. For instance, mainstream media has been emphatic on the prospective US economic growth slowdown; however, the global equity markets appear to twit this on outlook, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 from stockcharts.com: What Slowdown? Dow Jones World Index (left), Dow Jones Industrial Averages (right)

Balancing the Perspective: Using Market Cycles and Market Action

``One of the mysteries of human society is how we interact with each other. We’re an empathic species. When you have emotions, I see it in your face and I feel the same emotions. That means we kind of move as herds. And so when other people are getting excited and they are talking about the market, it gets me excited too. You can't stay above it. If you are human, you get drawn in. But then when the emotions start changing, you get drawn into that too. And the emotion does seem to be changing. It looks like we're at the beginning of a change in psychology”- Robert Shiller on the Housing Market, Yale Professor, Author Irrational Exuberance

Now the realization of a slowdown in the US real industry is one of the headwinds I have written and warned about repeatedly. Today, such trend appears to be snowballing and could have unmeasured ripple effects throughout the world economy and the financial markets. As demonstrated in Figure 1 from Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, the chart of the NAHB Housing Index vs. S&P 500 lagged by 12 months, which incidentally has a correlation factor of an incredibly strong 79%!!!

Figure1: Merrill Lynch David Rosenberg: NAHB Housing Index vs. S&P 500

Analyst John Maudlin, citing Rosenberg’s studies noted that (emphasis mine) ``seven of the last ten housing downturns foreshadowed an outright economic recession. The lead time was long - about 20 months. The three housing downturns that did not precede a recession presaged a discernible slowing in overall economic growth within a year of the peak in starts, on average.”

Since the US housing industry has allegedly peaked in August of 2005, which makes it about a year ago, 20 months suggests of an impending US recession by the 2^nd quarter of 2007. And US equity markets, given the strong correlation shown above, could trace the activities of the housing markets as Mr. Rosenberg suggests.

Since the world’s financial markets have been manifesting increasing degree of interconnectedness, the probability is that any significant downshifts in the US equity markets would reverberate to the world markets, including that of the Philippine Composite Index. Over the past quarter as shown previously, the Phisix has closely tracked the movements of the benchmark US S & P 500.

Now before anybody gets petrified by the prospects of a worldwide markdown of prices led by the US and go into a panic stricken selling spasm, there are two important factors one has to take in account, in my view, in reckoning of the future activities in the domestic market.

I say domestic because even as markets today have been strongly correlated, I think there will an eventual decoupling in the future from the trends of the US market, if one were to take into account the present cyclical phase of the domestic market cycle if not the region’s cycle led by Japan’s Nikkei.

Figure 2 Barry Ritholtz: 100-year chart cycle of the Dow Jones

Analyst Barry Ritholtz in his blog points out that since 2000, see Figure 2, the present secular phase of the US equity markets, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, despite the recent uptick (in 2003) has been DOWN or has been in a BEAR market phase.

Besides, it takes a lengthy period of time of about 17-20 years for these secular phases to shift from peaks of overvaluation to the chasms of undervaluation. This suggest that any shift towards a new secular bullmarket in the US will probably begin somewhere near the latter half of the next decade. For the time being, as the chart suggest, US equity markets could likely either consolidate (rangebound) or decline.

Figure 3 Yahoo!: Japan’s Nikkei 225

In the same context, we see in Figure 3 Japan’s Nikkei 225 in a declining secular phase for about 13 years, from peak-to-trough, as shown by the red arrow. Today, the Nikkei 225 has rallied from its 2003 low of about 7,600 and appears to be treading in a secular advance phase.

What this implies is that the Nikkei which is coming off from the pit hole in 2003 is unlikely to head lower or decline in excess of its previous depths but could possibly trade sideways (which translates into a pause in the advance phase) or decline marginally but not to exceed its 2003 bottom level (or present market cycle could suggest of an extended bottoming out) as the US markets tails off. These historical divergent paths as manifested by the valuations of Japan’s key equity benchmark could be indicative of an eventual disconnect.

Figure 4: What you see depends on where you stand! The Phisix Cycle

In a same plane, the Philippine Composite Index manifests of similar transitional phases as shown in Figure 4. It took the Phisix about 10 years from trough-to-Peak to cap its advance cycle from where the Phisix skyrocketed from about 150 to 3,300 to gain by (take note)...21 times! Think about it; if a boom given the same magnitude as in the past would be replayed into the future, this should translate to a Phisix at 22,000! Impossible you say? Look closely at India’s BSE 50 in Figure 5.

Figure 5 Yahoo! India’s BSE 30

From a bottom of around 2,600 India’s BSE has risen over threefold to over 12,000 (in May) in just three years! No markets or trends go in a straight line though. But given the continuity of the present momentum, the longer picture looks favorable for India’s BSE to further carve new heights under the auspices of its sustaining its economic growth clip buttressed by a backdrop of liquidity friendly investing landscape.

Booms are usually characterized by having new record high price levels. To quote Dr. Marc Faber in his book Tomorrow’s Gold (emphasis mine), ``The longer a trend has been in place, the more time will be required after the turning point before the changes are perceived, even if the new investment themes immediately enjoy a very powerful bull market.” In essence, it takes time (again!) for the investing public to realize a change in psychology which prolongs, deepens and intensifies the trend (see market action below).

This is not however to suggest or predict that the Phisix would hit 22,000, although given the cyclical aspects of the present market, such probability could not be discounted. My point is, if indeed I am correct to assess that the underpinning of today’s market cycle as thriving at a secular advance phase, sometime in the near future, the Phisix would most likely take out its recent high of 3,300. And like India’s BSE, a new high price record will be set. That is what cycles are all about.

Going back to the Phisix, since it peaked in 1997 alongside our neighbors and segued into its declining phase triggered by the ‘Asian Crisis’, the benchmark fell by about 70% to a bottom of about 1,000 in 2003 or in about 7 years. This makes the entire trough-to-trough cycle of the Phisix to about 17 years. Of course, our scant records could hardly be used as sufficient grounds to make a trajectory. But if history would do a reprise then we could about 6 to 7 years before the market tops out.

The Phisix today, like Japan’s Nikkei appears to be coming from the low side, if one reckons from the recent milestone bottom. This makes an unlikely path for the Philippine benchmark to decline more than its previous threshold low. Aside, the Phisix compared to other emerging markets has had a modest advance during the US FED inspired liquidity driven asset boom years since 2003 relative to its peers.

In addition, I expect the market-supportive politically-motivated policies of global central banks led by the US Federal Reserves to maintain a continued lax or loose liquidity environment, since a significant segment of the world economy have been driven by the financial markets, through what we call the “wealth effect” or ``an increase in spending that accompanies an increase in wealth (in absolute terms), or merely a perceived increase in wealth (in relative terms), according to the definition of Wikipedia.org.

Another factor that could temporarily diminish the negative ramifications of the declining housing industry in the US is of “market action”, or the continued denial by the public that such adverse events would translate to equally unfavorable implications to the financial markets. In other words, it is all about market psychology. In the words of guru John Hussman of the Hussman Funds (emphasis mine), ``When a concept is widely believed by investors, they may not abandon it immediately, so it's important to gauge the amount of “sponsorship” they throw behind it. That broad analysis of investor sponsorship and the broad quality of market internals goes into what I refer more concisely as “market action.””

Put differently, if the psychology of the investing public or if Wall Street remains inexorably tilted towards the purview of favorable market action, and most importantly if such optimism is backed by the wherewithal to do so, then the markets may, in defiance to these “negative” developments, continue to rise. And the likelihood of the continued provision of cheap capital gets closer by the day as signs of weakening in the US economy may prompt its monetary authorities to relieve the pressures built by its recent moves and move to postpone the day of reckoning. As Mr. Hussman advises, ``we can’t simply ignore or trade against the market’s various “themes” or concepts just because we believe they’re wrong.”

Of course, one would argue that US rate cuts would translate to an open admission of an ongoing US recession, as economist Gary Shilling notes ``With only one clear exception in the mid-1990s, central bank ease since the mid-1950s means the economy is in a recession, or will be within a few months” and that such would imply muted growth prospects for emerging market economies and in effect, would be baneful for its equity assets. However, it is my view that since markets have been propelled by liquidity in 2003 and thereafter, for as long as these liquidity injections remains voluminous enough to offset any intervening economic weaknesses, asset classes would likely find a floor and most probably start to rise anew. Where else would all these excess money go anyway? Although, inflation signals would likewise rear its ugly head anew overtime.

Finally, there have been increasing debates among the experts today tackling on the supposed decoupling of Asia from the US, given the present US housing led downdraft. A majority of which have stated that Asia, at its present framework, appears unprepared to depend on its own. As an investor myself, I would stand aside the polemics and watch market signals to see whether such disconnect would transpire or not. My bet is, considering how the market cycles are operating, is that in the future they will.

A Wall of Worry or A Slope of Hope?

Now anent the possible ramifications of an disorderly decline in the US financial markets, there have been two opposing school of thoughts here, one is that rising risk aversion trades would possibly lead to an outflow of investments from high risk areas such as emerging markets and commodities to a “flight to safety” into the US dollar and US dollar denominated fixed income sovereign instruments “treasuries” on the account of the unwinding of leveraged “short” positions, capital outflows from subdued expectations for the yuan’s rise on China’s slowdown and possible improvement of the US current account deficits. On the other hand, the US dollar bears point towards an exodus or capital flight from the US assets into hard or real assets and international markets.

While your analyst may be inclined towards the latter, as I have shown to you the long term cyclical patterns of the US equities as well as US Treasuries both on a declining trend, (for US treasuries rising yields-to repeat, over the long term), I would have to listen to the markets to reaffirm my convictions. And thus, two other barometers are needed to support my adapted underlying theme, the Gold index and the US dollar Index.

The gold market appears to be in a long-term bullmarket as previously shown. I would like to remind you that gold’s motion has not been limited to a US dollar inverse correlation. As a matter of fact, while the US dollar climbed in 2005 against its major trading partners as measured by the US dollar trade weighted index- see figure 6, gold rose against ALL currencies. This is a significant development considering that mainstream media portrays gold as a plain vanilla inflation hedge.

When politicians and their bureaucrats on a global scale attempt to outdo each other via “beggar thy neighbor” policies of massively printing endless quantities of money and issuing grotesquely immense amount of credit to destroy the purchasing power of their currencies in order to keep their “competitive” pricing edge for export concerns, tendency is for these government mandated or “fiat currencies” to drop against gold. And this phenomenon of destroying the purchasing power of global currencies can’t go on forever....it would either lead to hyperinflation or a collapse in the world monetary system. And gold’s rise against all currencies in 2005 could be symptomatic of this stealthily progressing malaise.

Figure 6: Goldmoney.com/James Turk: US Dollar Index (Log scale)

In figure 6, we can observe of last year’s US dollar index rally. The long term chart also shows of the bullmarket of the US dollar from 1994 to 2002 marked by the green channel. The US dollar started its torrid decline following 2002 peak (marked by the red channel) and rallied steeply last year (small green channel).

Today, the lower green channel of last year’s rally serves as our guidepost (its resistance level) as to whether the US dollar index would benefit from the “flight to quality” emanating from increasing risk aversion trades.

Until manifestations that prove the “flight to quality” theme becomes evident, I remain in the camp of the US dollar bears.

Of course there is always the middle ground or the synthesis: the scenario of a soft landing, a goldilocks economy, subdued inflation and ample liquidity. As they say, bullmarkets climb on a Wall of Worry while bearmarkets slide down on a slope of hope.

Time: An Investor’s Friend

As a trend watcher and a market participant, my primary concern is to look for major trends or investment themes rather than to be immersed or get engaged in glamorous or fad based punts. Unfortunately, to the average investor’s mindset, expectations are weighted towards the actions of the ticker. Immediate gratification rather than long-term rationality is commonly preferred. The markets essentially become an arena for gambling. Yet when the cycle turns against them, they have everyone else to blame except themselves.

Do you think the outperformances of market savants as Warren Buffett, Ben Graham and their ilk come with short-term mark-to-market bets? These gurus had long periods of underperformances before the markets eventually proved them right. Take for instance the illustrious Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Trust. His fund has had a phenomenal streak of beating the S & P 500 for a period of 15 years! Yet his fund is down by about 10%, does it make him less of a guru for today’s short-term quirk?

Unlike contemporary analysts who rate “value” buys on issues which have been moving up, these investing icons load up on issues frequently ignored by the public which to them represent as intrinsic value. Market timing, in short, has been inconsequential to them. In the words of another guru David Dreman in his Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation (emphasis mine), ``Demanding immediate success invariable leads to playing the fads or fashions currently performing well rather than investing on a solid basis. A course of investment, once charted, should be given time to work. Patience is a crucial but rare investment commodity. The problem is not as simple as it may appear; studies have shown that businessmen and other investors abhor uncertainty. To most people in the market place, quick input-output matching is an expected condition of successful investing.”

Patience, after all, is a matter of managing one’s expectations of time. To quote investing wordsmith Peter Bernstein (emphasis mine), ``Once we introduce the element of time, the linkage between risk and volatility begins to diminish. Time changes risk in many ways, not just its relation to volatility.” In converse, the shorter the timeframe, the bigger the risk involved. Time is, in essence, an investor’s best friend.

Gold Conundrum: European Banks Selling Behind the Curtains vs. Seasonal Strength?

``And when voters get scared, politicians leap into action. Unfortunately, fast government action almost always results in irrational action.”-D.R. Barton is the editor and founder of Traders’ Tuesday, and editor of the E.S.P. Profit System.

One of the discordant messages or might I say “conundrum” painted by today’s market has been the surprising underperformance of gold. In the wake of the Fed’s decision to hold in abeyance its interest rate hikes, gold has plunged by about $50 over the past weeks under the rationale of “lower inflation concerns” or “mitigated geopolitical risks” or “dragged by oil”.

I find such arguments as absurd. The benchmark precious metal has basically thrived on uncertainties in every known dimension (be it politics, economic, financial, monetary etc..). While the war in Lebanon may have temporarily led to a multilateral brokered settlement, the overall political climate in the Middle East remains as tense and poses as potential powder keg.

Listening to the US former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s interview at the Bloomberg, I have to share his view that the ceasefire interposed by the UN may not last considering that the Hezbollah is unlikely to acquiesce on disarmament. Furthermore, the Hezbollah claimed victory as the first Arab group to have dragged the Israelis into a war of attrition of which compelled their archrival to a ceasefire unlike the outcomes in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973 and 1982.

George Friedman of Stratfor gives an incisive comment (emphasis mine), ``The group did not conduct offensive operations; it was not able to conduct maneuver combat; it did not challenge the Israeli air force in the air. All it did was survive and, at the end of the war, retain its ability to threaten Israel with such casualties that Israel declined extended combat. Hezbollah did not defeat Israel on the battlefield. The group merely prevented Israel from defeating it. And that outcome marks a political and psychological triumph for Hezbollah and a massive defeat for Israel.”

Now with a psychological booster gleaned from the recent proxy war, backed by oil surplus oil funds, what stops the Hezbollah and/or its patrons (Syria and Iran) from expanding the theatre of war to attain their politically desired objectives or agenda?

Another fuzzy excuse is of the “slowdown” or “lower inflation” concerns; monetarist proponent and Noble laureate Milton Friedman once said that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” This means that inflation has less to do with state of economic growth since it is always and everywhere about money and credit. Morgan Stanley Andy Xie explains the present environment best, in my view:

``The basic reason for rising inflation is that global real policy rates are less than half of, and global inflation 50% above, average levels over the past decade. Real interest rates are not high enough to exert a headwind against inflation.

``The risk of accelerating inflation is even higher, considering that central banks have pumped enormous liquidity into the global economy over the past decade. Until recently, the inflationary effect of the liquidity was held back by deflationary shocks. Instead, the money inflated asset markets, which, in turn, boosted global demand.”

Where consumer demand may have been temporarily curtailed driven by a deceleration of the US real estate industry, the transmission mechanisms of the inflationary policies by global central banks could be channeled into other areas of interest by the speculative community. Hedge fund dabbling on the field of property catastrophe reinsurance or betting on weather outcomes is just one of such vivid manifestations.

Has the recent rise in global equity markets, despite the semblance of a tightened money environment, as manifested by the full inversion of the yield curve spectrum in the US, presuppose a future or forward easing by the US Fed? Are the actions in the financial markets today, compelling central bankers around the world to adopt a more investor or market friendly regime?

In addition, the argument that oil has dragged gold lower fallaciously presumes that inflation is driven by energy rather than excess liquidity stimulating inordinate demand for oil or oil as a major beneficiary from inflationary policies that has lowered the “price value” of the US dollar relative to oil.

Further, real interest rates will have to climb further to wring out “inflation” or excess liquidity out of the system similar to the actions of former US Fed chair Paul Volker in 1980; something of which “measured” pace of rate increases by global central banks are unlikely to accomplish.

In short, inflation is very much embedded and entrenched around the global financial and economic system and would most likely find its way in different outlets, unless global central banks act decisively. Moreover, as discussed previously, political expedience and credibility concerns are likely future drivers for sustained inflationary growth. So in essence, the financial markets appear to be “mispricing” or underrating the relationship of gold to a prospective slowdown, the oil-gold affinity and easing of geopolitical concerns.

One more thing; because inflation is essentially what Central bankers stand for, controlling inflation expectations is one of their major functions. And for a little spice, let me add my conspiracy theory.

While it is summer period in the in the US and Europe possibly much of the market participants could be off from work for a vacation which leads to relatively light volume of trades in the markets.

In the meantime, European central banks have been significantly behind schedule in offloading their gold holdings allotment under the 15 member European Gold Agreement (EGA) by about 169 tonnes which ends in September 26^th, according to Resource Investor’s Charlotte Mathews, ``In the year to this September, the signatories were permitted to sell 500 tons of gold but by the end of July they had sold only 331 tons. They cannot carry over the allocation from one year to the next.”

It could be that central banks have taken advantage of the present “lean season” in the financial markets to carve out a “low inflation” scenario to “manage the public’s inflation expectations” by unloading the remaining balance of 169 tonnes. Of course, heavy selling on lean volume equates to lower prices, which is possibly what we are seeing today.

However, as a matter of seasonality gold appears to be entering its strongest period as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: CaseyResearch.com: gold Rises more in the Second Half of the Year

According to market savant Doug Casey, ``As you can see in Chart A, which summarizes gold's monthly price moves over the past 30 years, the yellow metal typically shows weakness from February to April, rallies in May, then heads down for summer. In August, gold typically begins to rebound and moves up pretty much for the rest of the year. Of course, this is an average pattern, not an invariable one. In 10 years out of the last 30, gold dropped in the fourth quarter. Even so, the long-term data suggests the average pattern is worth paying attention to.”

So what drives gold higher during the second half?

Seasonal jewelry purchases, according to CNN, ``September and October are key holiday periods in China - the mid-autumn festival -- and India -- the revival of the wedding season -- and precede Christmas purchasing in the OECD countries.” Aside from of course, Christmas shopping in the US of which gold is sold most during the fourth quarter or about half or 45% of the annual gold jewelry sales in 2005 according to Resource Investors.

Market maven Mr. Casey remind us of India’s share as a major consumer of the gold jewelry segment as substantial, he says ``In fact, in 2005 Indian gold jewelry sales rose by 25%, and now that country takes credit for about 23% of the world's consumer gold sales. The U.S., at #2, takes down just 12%.”

Figure 7 shows that during the past three years, gold has markedly used August for its springboard towards a yearend rally.

Figure 8: stockcharts.com: HUI Amex Gold bugs follows gold’s footsteps?

As a matter of benchmark, I used the composite HUI Amex gold bugs index representative of unhedged gold mining stocks as possible clue to the movements of local mining shares counterpart. In figure 8, the HUI index has also followed the footsteps of gold during the past 3 years as to mounting a last quarter rally.

To recap, the present movements of gold appears to be founded on nebulous grounds; low inflation/demand slowdown, oil as a drag and mitigated geopolitical risk, as the inflation scenario remains deeply entrenched into the system and remains a politically expedient and “credibility” friendly alternative to politicians and their bureaucrats compared to the “deflationary option” while geopolitical environment remains critically volatile despite present news accounts.

It could be that European central banks have been trying to “manage” inflation expectations by possibly selling their balance due to end this September under the EGA agreement on a lean light volume market as brokers and financial market players could be in vacation.

One mitigating factor despite the recent selloff is the seasonal strength of gold going into the fourth quarter usually with August as springboard. Finally, real interest rates, the US Federal Reserve’s forward policies which could be expected to err on the side of inflation and a declining value of the US dollar will continue to cast a favorable light for higher gold prices.

Verbum sapienti satis est (A word to the wise is enough- Titus Maccius Plautus Roman comic dramatist)