Could Brent’s Premium Over WTI Imply a $70 above Oil prices?

``Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu, Chinese Philosopher

At the start of the year despite being apprehensive over the prospective performances of global equities markets we remain buoyant on oil prices on two basic premises; one, Peak oil, where about 80% of global oil reserves are held by national oil companies, non-transparency, market distortion from government intervention and politically instability from resource rich countries has continued to placed a restrain on the supply side from adjusting to market requirements.

For instance, would you believe that despite being an oil exporting country starting May 21^st Iran will be rationing its gasoline? Yes, the country is said to hold 10% of the world’s oil reserves but subsidies have kept its supply consumption high. Reportedly high consumption levels could have been corollary to the government imposed subsidies as some have undertaken to smuggle oil and sell it at global prices beyond its borders.

When we say peak oil we mean the end of “cheap oil”. While technology has enabled access to once prohibitively costly oil patches [e.g. deep sea], national policy restrictions have been a huge barrier in expanding supply access even with such added technology at hand.

Take for instance Mexico’s once prolific Cantarell oil field, one of the largest in the world. Last year its production dropped by a significant 20% from 2 million barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels a day. Some estimates have even placed the field to produce by less than 500,000 per day or an equivalent 75% drop in 2010, according to Petroleumworld.

Yet Mexico’s national oil company Pemex suffers from foreign investment restrictions embedded in its constitution from which its two past chief executives have failed to persuade members of the Congress to have this lifted. As a result Mexico, according to Wall Street Journal, may become an oil importer within eight years!

Of course the other factor major factor is the declining US dollar.

Lately, I stumbled across a very compelling argument posed by analyst Elliott Gue of the Energy Letters where he notes of the present disconnect between the benchmark crudes of the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent Crude which could translate to a significant impact on oil prices.

Figure 3: Energy Letters: WTI-Brent spread breaks!

The WTI crude is of higher grade sweet crude and is widely used in the US and benchmarked by US refiners while the Brent Crude is of a lesser grade sweet crude than the WTI but is commonly used in Europe and in Asia and likewise benchmarked by the refiners of the respective regions.

Figure 3 shows that in the past seven years WTI maintained an average premium of $1.72 relative to the Brent. However recently, the Brent Crude turned negative by a huge amount. Such negative spread reflects of the global demand supply imbalances which could possibly induce higher crude oil prices in the coming months.

Mr. Gue says ``When Brent trades at a significant premium to WTI, US refiners start refining more WTI (and other types of crude) and less Brent. This reduces demand for Brent and pushes up demand for WTI, putting downward pressure on Brent prices relative to WTI.”

Figure 4: Stockcharts.com: US Gasoline prices reach Major Resistance Levels!

As we enter the major driving summer season in the US, a sharp drop in gasoline inventories has caused a spike in gas prices. Where the U.S. transportation sector accounts for 66% of all U.S. consumption, the recent spike in Gas prices hardly signifies a slowdown with its economy.

Figure 4 shows that in the past 3 years, each time gas prices reach the resistance levels, oil prices hit the $70 or more per bbl area, however today we see a virtual lag in the WTI prices. Technicians may see today’s actions as a sell based on previous price behavior over the past three years, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

While gasoline inventories have been dropping, crude inventories have stayed high due to low refinery utilization or bottlenecks in the supply chain as refiners reduced outputs due to maintenance related outages. However the refiners are expected to pick up the slack by completing their maintenance work soon, and should be expected to use up quickly the higher than average inventories.

On the other hand, global inventories of crude oil have dropped sharply, crude oil inventories fell to about 80.5 million barrels last February. Further, the IEA estimates that the combined supply in the US, Europe and Japan have declined at a rate of more than 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter of the year; a higher than average decline for the season.

In short, the negative spread reflects the quickening depletion of crude stocks abroad relative to the US, hence the negative spread. And this should imply for higher prices in the interim as US seasonal demand picks up and where supply imports by the US are expected to rev up in order to augment current stock levels.

Quoting Mr. Gue, ``But with US oil benchmark (WTI) prices below prevailing international benchmark (Brent) levels, US refiners are going to have trouble finding any oil to import; better oil prices are available internationally than in the US. Of course, there are certain oil supplies (such as Venezuelan heavy crude) that are relatively captive to the US market. However, with WTI prices so far under international levels, it will be tough for the US to attract additional barrels.

``It's simple economics: If the US is going to attract imports, US benchmark prices will need to rise toward international levels and WTI will have to close its discount to Brent.”

``Moreover, as US crude inventories start to draw lower and the nation begins importing again in earnest, this will represent another wall of demand for the international crude oil markets. In other words, strong US gasoline demand will eventually represent a strong draw on global crude oil supplies. Those supplies are already tight, and OPEC shows no sign of letting up on its campaign to cut output.

So fill up your gas tanks as oil prices are due back to the $70 levels and above. On the hand, you may consider oil stocks as insurance.

A “Tipping Point” for the Philippine Capital Markets?

``The highest use of capital is not to make more money, but to make money do more for the betterment of life - Henry Ford

WHEN I came across one of last Sunday’s front page headlines from the Philippine Daily Inquirer entitled ``Why Pinoy savers are turning investors”, it brought a smile on my face for validating what we have LONG anticipated; a concrete testament of the emerging transformation on the psychological acceptability of domestic capital markets investing by the local populace.

Front page headlines reflect on national consciousness such that when the concept of capital markets investing turns topical and gets ingrained into the national level (to reach a proverbial “Tipping Point”), we should expect such trends to further deepen.

In Malcolm Gladwell’s marvelous bestseller the “Tipping Point”, this development could be classified as one of the key “principles of an epidemic”--the “Stickiness Factor” or the longer the idea/disease stays the more it is likely to get propagated.

The inherent strength of ANY capital markets basically lies with its domestic investor base or the so-called “home bias” rather than on foreign portfolio money. Unfortunately, local investors have in the past been geared towards a “US dollar bias” which resulted to the low penetration level of participants (demand side) or our much maligned state of the domestic markets which has been likewise reflected in the state of our national economy. This apparently is changing.

Technicians are wont to believe that they alone capture the directions of the markets by reading the psychological aspects from historical market action. In contrast, by understanding the Misesean standpoint of “Human Action”, where the late great Ludwig von Mises said ``Mans striving after an improvement of the conditions of his existence impels him to action. Action requires planning and the decision which of various plans is the most advantageous”, we asserted that prevailing global dynamics would work for this psychological shift among the local investing mindset.

In particular, we have long argued that our underappreciated, as epitomized by the low penetration level by local investors, and underdeveloped capital markets would mainly benefit from the “global liquidity” driven financial market activities, aside from deepening financial integration or globalization trends, as seen by the current symptoms in the APPRECIATING PESO, RISING PHISIX and RECORD LOW INTEREST RATES. And that such reported “savers turning into investors” signify our own version of “searching for higher yields” syndrome.

In other words, global economic trends have militated on local investor actions, notwithstanding, the activities in the Philippine asset classes in general.

Again we see this development under the rubric of Malcolm Galdwell’s third principle of an epidemic—the Power of Context, external or environmental influences play a far greater role than what we conventionally expect of them.

While the article served to highlight on the du jour accelerating trends, we’d like to make illuminate on some seemingly discrepant views covered.

First, the article quotes an official who says that “markets don’t move in the same direction” where he directly cites stocks and bonds moving inversely, as raison d’ etre for portfolio diversification.

Today’s markets have exhibited that some “textbook” concepts have ostensibly become “inapplicable” to a degree or even perhaps have turned “obsolete”.

Figure 1, from the IMF shows that global financial markets have been increasingly correlated in terms of performances gauged from different dimensions.

Figure 1: IMF (Global Stability Report): Growing Correlation Among Asset Classes and Across Borders

This is something I have shown in the past but would like to repeat to reemphasize on the point of correlation.

On the left panel of the chart is the Correlation of Asset Classes with the main US equity benchmark, the S & P 500, and its corresponding Broad market volatility while on the right panel is the Global Speculative Default rates.

The noteworthy aspect is that bonds or fixed income instruments and most especially commodities have in the past been NEGATIVELY correlated; today we are seeing a radical SHIFT where bonds and EVEN commodities or in fact ALL asset classes have been shown to be POSITIVELY correlated! All of the yellow bars signify positive correlation with that of the S & P 500 (right most yellow bar).

On the other hand, the right panel shows where emerging markets and OECD regions have had historically divergent spreads to reflect on the so-called “risk premia”. Today, such default rates have astonishingly disappeared or have even CONVERGED!!!

Again this is reflective of the prevailing perception of “sustainable” LOW RISKS environment where a country’s currency yield and economic growth factor has apparently taken precedence over other risk variables. In the same dimension we have previously showed that 90-day Philippine treasuries rates lower than its equivalent in the US.

From which again we ask; have investors come to price US treasuries as “riskier” than Philippine contemporaries? Has the emerging market class reflected significant improvement enough to classify its assets as equal or near equal to its developed market equivalent? Or has a new paradigm emerged? Or has this phenomenon simply exhibited a pricing misalignment? The future provides the answer in today’s juncture.

This from the IMF’s Global Stabilization Report (emphasis mine), ``...rising correlations in returns across asset classes have meant that the volatility of the overall market basket has not declined as much as the volatility of its component parts—indeed, by some measures it has increased. Insofar as markets have become overly complacent, they may not yet have priced in this covariance risk, which could lead to the further amplification of any volatility shock. For instance, the recent market sell-off in late February 2007 illustrated how seemingly minor, unrelated developments across markets quickly led to the unwinding of risk positions across a wide range of financial assets.”

In other words, traditional justifications for employing the conventional Portfolio Diversification model would simply be impertinent under present circumstances, where risks as well as rewards have been increasingly shared. So before listening to your financial advisor, who would advocate the traditional models of diversification, ask them of how to go around the risks of intensifying financial assets interlinkages.

The second issue which I wish to deconstruct comes from the statement ``This is the difference between a bank depositor and an investor—depositors can expect guaranteed principal and interest while investors can expect principal risk and yield.”

The implied premise is that bank depositors are “risk free” while investors are exposed to “principal risks”.

While this is TECHNICALLY true, that depositors can expect “guaranteed principal and interest”, the argument does NOT deal with the aspect of the depositor’s equivalent of PURCHASING POWER risks, as natural consequences of inflationary policies. This effectively translates to the risks of the erosion of the purchasing power of the depositor’s principal or an investor’s equivalent of principal risks in spite of guaranteed returns.

In the last issue we have dealt with Zimbabwe from where in 2006 their consumer prices indices have astoundingly soared by over 1,700% a year and yet where similarly its stock market has spectacularly spiked by over 12,000% in spite of an economic standstill (literally speaking).

What this means is that under such hyperinflationary environment, or translated to the currency’s massive loss in purchasing power, has compelled the general public to seek safe haven into the only most liquid asset, i.e. the stock market, which has acted as medium of insurance against the drastic fall in the value of its currency.

Since “guaranteed” fixed income instruments are almost equivalent to cash holdings, the loss of purchasing power translates to a loss in value for the depositor’s principal. While the nominal value of the currency remains, it buys increasingly less amount of goods or services in the marketplace.

Figure 2: Gavekal Research (Brave New World): Building an Efficient Portfolio in Our Brave New World

Put in a different perspective, fixed income instruments do well under disinflationary or deflationary environments as they increase the real value of the underlying currency’s purchasing power, while other assets as tangible assets or commodities normally serve as an insurance against a loss of purchasing power, as well as stocks under “hyperinflationary” mode as in the Zimbabwe or Germany’s 1920s Weimar experience. In the context of risks, even the US dollar which was once the Filipino’s favored asset class has shown of its vulnerability.

In Figure 2 courtesy of Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, the Gavekal team outlines a suggested portfolio allocation under FOUR different economic conditions.

In short, in this mortal world NOTHING is EVER “RISK FREE or GUARANTEED” (except for death and taxes). It is only the degree of risks that differs that which is determined by the nation’s primary economic activity.

Profitability and NOT Vanity Matters

``What feels good or is psychologically appealing is not necessarily profitable.” F.J. Chu

Just A little reminder. Our bullish stance has NOT in anyway been designed to SELL you stocks. If my main economic incentives had been the case, then I would have taken the “micro/corporate” fundamental analysis or “technical” analysis or “insider” route as channels to stoke our reader’s imagination or fire up their adrenalin.

Or I would have utilized my own “call center” version by conducting telephone campaigns instead of this lengthy episodes of writing (where personal phone calls has bigger probabilities for a close--spent nearly 15 years in the field of sales and marketing), or could have opted to work as a full time sell side analyst for a broker who would be willing to pay us enough to cover our basic needs or lastly consider the option to SELL this newsletter service to the public.

Unfortunately, I have deliberately not engaged in such activities as my intent is to specialize in this field of undertaking, which to my mind has vastly enormous potentials (remember bullish non-banking finance?).

Where our actions are a matter of choice, our bullish perspective emanates from our interpretation of market signals operating under our comprehension of the functional dynamics of the Philippine asset classes in relation to the global financial markets as contributing factors in determining absolute returns.

Bluntly said, our view stems from mainly the horizon of a trader-investor and NOT as your typical “sell side” analyst nor as a broker. Although candidly, I am a licensed agent in behalf of a broker, nevertheless, I am NOT paid to be bullish.

This means that divergences in our market outlooks or opinions should not be construed as conflict of interest on my behalf. As we have noted before, differences in economic outlooks, valuation appraisals, technical readings or market opinions or investing/economic/political philosophy pave way for exchanges in the marketplace and are natural and salutary elements of well functioning markets.

Our goal is NOT to be proven vaingloriously right but to be proven humbly PROFITABLE. ``For we are taking pains to do what is right, not only in the eyes of the Lord but also in the eyes of men.”-2 Corinthians 8:21

World Equity Markets on A Bullish Juggernaut, Phisix to Follow?!

``If you board the wrong train, it is no use running along the corridor in the other direction.”- Dietrich Bonhoeffer German theologian

WHILE the domestic stock market appeared to have partially responded to our forecasts of a “global contagion” influenced domestic meltup, this only came after wild swings during last week’s activities.

The Phisix was up 1.17% amidst streaking hot Asian indices as the Peso streaked to a new six year high at Php 47.51 against a US dollar.

The wild swings in our market has been coincidental to an apparently much wilder roller coaster activities in China, whose composite indices fell by over 4% last Thursday but ended the week still with significant gains, the Shenzhen up 5.85% (!!!) and Shanghai 1.87% after an equally strong rebound on Friday.

As we have previously noted, despite the uninspiring or tepid fundamentals, global markets have justified the present loose (inflationary) conditions as beneficial for equities and the rest of the asset classes. This has been greatly aided by the continuing swoon of the US dollar (as measured by the trade weighted index).

And such asset friendly financial market conditions means that in spite of credit (mortgage) growth slowdown seen in the housing sector in the US, there have been signs that more leverage taking activities have shifted to the other sectors.

Let me quote another favorite analyst Mr. Doug Noland of the Credit Bubble Bulletin, ``It appears obvious to me that rampant Credit excess runs unabated. Household debt growth may be moderating, while corporate borrowings are likely expanding at low double-digit rates. But it is the growth in financial sector borrowings that holds the key to liquidity puzzle. The leveraging of existing securities (there’s $45 TN of Credit market debt outstanding) – by hedge funds, in broker/dealer and bank “trading accounts” – is likely a major source of current liquidity excess.”

And such excess liquidity has certainly fired up the US markets to a blast-off stage...

Figure 3: stockcharts.com: US Equity Markets in OVERDRIVE!

We have previously shown how the US Dow Jones Industrials have served to inspire global indices. This time the uptrend has accelerated into a broad market run, as shown in Figure 3, where the S&P 500 (main window), the Nasdaq (highest pane), Russell 2000 (above pane) and Dow Transports (lower pane) have ALL conspired to surge beyond their recently established highs (blue arrows).

Such broad based advance can hardly be deemed as an “isolated” event. And in my view taking a bearish stand against such a vigorous “momentum” would be suicidal for one’s portfolio. Of course, over the short-run the markets may retrace, but given the present pace of advances, the odds are that the emotional impulses will continue to spur prices into a maximum overdrive.

As we have previously presented, the global financial markets have mostly tracked the directions of the US markets.

Last Tuesday, April 17^th the widely followed Canadian independent research outfit BCA Research, came up with their own bullish outlook as emerging markets broke out as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: BCA Research: Emerging Market Equities: Breakout!

Notes the BCA Research (emphasis mine), ``...many EM currencies are likely to appreciate further against the U.S. dollar, which will help bring down EM bond yields. In turn, this provides a bullish equity environment. Lower interest rates will further stimulate domestic demand, benefiting domestically oriented sectors and helping encourage P/E multiple expansion. Emerging market banks tend to perform particularly well during times of a falling U.S. dollar, and banks in Asia and Eastern Europe currently appear attractive.”

And such variables COULD HAVE fueled the bourses of our Southeast Asian neighbors to almost simultaneously SET new RECORD highs, as Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore (except Thailand-still hobbled by political direction on its capital flows), as shown in Figure 5, as well as most of other East Asian neighbors as Taiwan, China, Australia and Korea (Hong Kong and New Zealand at resistance).

Figure 5: With Jakarta Hitting FRESH Record Highs, How Long Before The Phisix Catches Up?

With Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index (red candle) on a winning streak into FRESH record highs, the odds are that over the near term (possibly in a week or two), the Phisix (blue line) could likely breach its very own 10-year hurdle following the global juggernaut.

The Economist wrote a dampener following Indonesia’s recent foray to new bullish grounds (emphasis mine), ``Three times since the start of the year it has suffered sharp falls, partly as a result of contagion from problems in other markets (although to be fair, most other Asian markets have suffered similar fates). But Indonesia remains a high-risk market, and it is inherently vulnerable during bouts of global or regional market turbulence. Moreover, the very scale of the JSX Composite Index's gains also makes a corresponding downward correction that much more of a worry. In the 24 months to March, Indonesian equities rose by around 80%, compared with a median of around 45% in ASEAN. Valuations may also be on the high side. The average price-earnings (P/E) ratio of the JSX is currently 20.2, lower than China (22), New Zealand (22.5) and Japan (26.6) but higher than in most other Asian markets. In Singapore the average P/E ratio is 15.3, and in Thailand it is 10.4, although this probably indicates that political instability has lowered valuations.”

Last week, using the Zimbabwe experience we wrote on how monetary processes or inflationary policies can distort market prices and even climb amidst deteriorating economic conditions. And as global asset markets trek higher on grounds of loose money conditions which allows for more inflationary (leverage) undertaking, consumer price inflation continue to manifests itself in varying degrees most notably in Canada (highest in 8 months), China (highest level in more than two years on jump on food prices driving concerns over “exporting inflation”) and the UK (highest in 14 years, which prompted Bank of England governor Mervyn King to write Chancellor Gordon Brown for an explanation).

This makes us likewise recall billionaire philanthropist George Soros’ ``Theory of Reflexivity” where he says that the prevailing bias may impact not just market prices but also the fundamentals, from which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and eventually leads to a boom-bust sequence.

While the bears could be right where sometime in the future a liquidity crunch may ensue which could put a grinding halt and possibly reverse the present trends, for the moment market actions have NOT been favorable to undertake positions against the present trend, as the global money machine appears to be working in full throttle.

As always, it pays to consider a contingency plan under potential TAIL EVENTS from which the practical ways would mean risking only the amount one can afford by “position sizing” and by strictly “enforcing your stops”.

When our short term view matches our long term outlook, we tend to become emphatic on our calls.

Remember markets may remain irrational more than we can remain solvent and designing portfolio profitability should always factor in such anomalies.

Global Liquidity Conditions Should Buoy The Phisix

``You can't do well in investments unless you think independently. And the truth is, you're neither right nor wrong because people agree with you. You're right because your facts and your reasoning are right. In the end, that's all that counts. And there wasn't any question about the facts or reasoning being correct.”-Warren Buffett

JUST as I recommended a “Buy” following the conspicuous appearance of a turnaround, the door slammed shut on my face.

Momentarily, yes, the MOMENTUM which I have expected to have carried over seems to have faltered, and that the ticker says that my short term outlook could be wrong.

As student of the financial markets, we are taught to accept and endure mistakes as an integral part of investing, and to avoid from engaging ourselves in defending vanity, as market guru Peter Lynch has taught us, where he says, ``The list of qualities [an investor should have] includes patience, self-reliance, common sense, a tolerance for pain, open-mindedness, detachment, persistence, humility, flexibility, a willingness to do independent research, an equal willingness to admit mistakes, and the ability to ignore general panic.”

However, before conceding to such omission, the overriding question is that has the facts CHANGED enough to merit our retreat?

This analyst began his crusade as a technician, long before graduating ourselves into a macro observer. Where in reality the market militates on a diversity of forces, to my mind, rigidly looking at the technical aspects in determining one’s investing decisions has been rather ONE-dimensional, operating in the misplaced assumption that technicals captures the entire breadth of investing psychology. Technicals are preferred tools of brokers whose economic objectives are mostly distinct from investors.

Besides, in the markets, it is not about being right but being profitable that truly counts. In whatever investing style one undertakes, success has been a matter of adhering to discipline.

So far our successes have stemmed from looking at several dimensions, most importantly with respect to macro developments in conjunction with multifarious market signals and market cyclicality over a longer span of time horizon. As you perhaps noticed, we rarely engage in short-term predictions.

With regards to technical aspects, looking at the Phisix today shows some signs of bearishness as revealed by a semblance of “topping” formation of a “Head and Shoulders” pattern. However as mentioned above, we will also assess on the other facets to determine the probability weightings with regards to the market’s outcome over the interim.

We will not belabor the significance of the Phisix’s strong correlation with global equities, in the face of escalating trends of global financial integration as discussed ad nauseam. However, Figure 1 shows that with reference to the developments with MOST global markets, the Phisix appears to have momentarily “DIVERGED” from the general trend.

Figure 1: Stockcharts.com: Divergent Phisix or a BLIP?

When making comparisons against global indices, we use established benchmarks for the purpose of shortening our presentation. It would be exacting and tedious if not downright confusing to show each and every 17 Asian, 18 European and 12 American bourses in one outlook.

For instance, our point is to PROVE that following the “Shanghai Surprise” at the end of February, markets in GENERAL have been recovering, where some indices have even set new record HIGHS.

The Dow Jones World index at the bottom pane and the JP Morgan Fleming Asia Equity at the upper pane has both been treading on record territories aside from depicting conformity with the apparent inspirational “leader”, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages (center line chart), as shown by the blue arrows.

It is noteworthy to emphasize that EACH “undulance” or the peak and troughs from the major to the minor ones appears to have been in CLOSE UNISON. Our question is, if the Phisix has played out a mostly similar rhythm with the rest of global equity bourses since 2003, could this “divergence” last or is it merely a blip?

Now let us examine the recent activities. The holiday-abbreviated Phisix have been the worst performer in a mostly buoyant Asia (down 2.34% over the week). Vietnam (-2.03%) followed next, with Japan (-.69%), New Zealand (-.49%), Bangladesh (-.29%) and Taiwan (-.03%) which showed minor declines, while the rest of the playing field registered SIGNIFICANT GAINS.

Considering that foreign money have DOMINATED trading activities and had been the MAIN CATALYST towards “significantly” most of the Phisix’s advances since 2003 could they be instigators of the present decline?

Foreign money unusually accounted for a LOW of 28.61% of the week’s turnover; this had been due to the humungous special block sales at San Miguel last Friday. And YES while Thursday’s (Php 58.097 million) and Friday’s (Php 10.064 million) declines had been spearheaded by foreign selling, over the week foreign money STILL registered (Php 1.069 billion) of NET foreign INFLOWs. In short, the degree of the outflows had been INCONSEQUENTIAL compared to the degree of the inflows over the week.

Moreover, during Thursday and Friday’s retracements noticeably foreign selling had been concentrated on FEW or SELECT issues, as measured by two successive days of selloff and relative to the respective volume turnover; namely PLDT (-6.25%), MEGAWORLD (-1.37%), RIZAL COMMERCIAL Bank (-9.8%), UNIVERSAL ROBINA (unchanged) and PNOC EDC (unchanged). The rest of the Phisix components have either shown minor outflows or to the contrary of our expectations, INFLOWs amidst the carnage.

Now in the perspective of the broader market, the spread between foreign inflows and the outflows or the “NET inflows” had been the LARGEST since advent of 2007, which includes the depressed sentiment of Thursday (40:29) and Friday (51:25). This certainly is not a convincing sign of a reversal of sentiment by foreign investors, is it?

Moreover, the fact that the Peso climbed to its HIGHEST level since 2001, breaking out from the Php 48 level against the US dollar to close at PHp 47.905 to a USD, implies that more Pesos are being bought relative to the US dollar.

What this simply tells us is that foreign money has NOT initiated last week’s decline but local players.

Figure 2: Studying Elections 2004; Election Jitters suggests a buy?

So our next question would be what has prompted local players to such panic driven selloff?

PERHAPS election day jitters. As the national and local election day approaches, one should expect this major political variable to preponderate over the airspace and nonetheless serve as an excuse or justification by mainstream analysts to explain on the activities of the market.

Figure 2 likewise shows us that learning from the last electoral experience, in 2004, possible election jitters COULD HAVE triggered (we forgot the conditions which lead to this) a short-term decline, from April 28 to May 19^th where the Phisix lost 9% (see blue circle). Yet over the following months Phisix worked to regain all such losses and by September had been trading above its April high. Could it be that local investors today are figuring out the same scenario today?

Yet, as the same experience shows, a knee jerk selloff under a bullish backdrop presents as BUYING opportunities instead of selling on crowd following “sentiment”.

Figure 3: US Dollar driven Phisix

Over the years I’ve repeatedly argued that the Phisix had been mostly driven by the US dollar dynamics.

The Phisix has sizably OUTPERFORMED when the US dollar as measured by the trade weighted index backslides. In Figure 3, it is conspicuously shown that as the US dollar declines (signified by the red trend lines at lower pane), the Phisix rises sharply (red trend lines at center window).

Notice too that when the US dollar staged a substantial rally in 2005 as denoted by the blue trend line, the Phisix has traded mostly sideways, as represented by the blue box.

Well, with the US dollar breaking DOWN from its CRITICAL support level, it could be expected that such added liquidity should serve as support to global asset classes including that of the Phisix and to other Philippine asset classes.

Dr. Ed Yardeni of the Oakwood associates underscores our view of such accommodative stance in favor of global asset classes (emphasis mine), ``...foreign central banks are already increasing their purchases of US Treasuries and Agencies to avert a precipitous drop in the dollar. The growth of FRODOR--foreign official dollar reserves--rose to 20% y/y last week, up from 13.3% late last year, and the highest since January 2005. In other words, the latest bout of dollar weakness is once again causing central banks to pump up the pace of global liquidity, which is why commodity prices are taking off again. Indeed, the CRB raw industrials spot price index is now a whopping 32% above its previous cyclical peak during the global boom of the mid-1990s! The IMF’s data show that non-gold international reserves rose to a record $5.15 trillion in January, more than doubling since the start of the decade. Emerging nations held a record $3.71 trillion in international reserves in January, up 24.8% y/y. International reserves held by industrial countries were unchanged at a record high $1.44 trillion, 6.3% above a year ago.”

So AGAINST a backdrop of combined bearish indications from the technical viewpoint and potential seasonal (remember Wall Street’s longstanding axiom “sell in May and go away”?) weakness to even possibly localized anxiety as the “election jitters”, we should view ANY selling amidst a weakening dollar (on continued premise of global search for yield) as prime conditions for BUYING OPPORTUNITIES.

Of course, anything can happen to the markets over the short-term, but given the strong correlation of the US dollar and the Phisix, as well as the internal dynamics of the Phisix (dominant foreign buying), it is likely that the present divergence may well be a blip.

And it is also important to remind ourselves that ANY risks that are most likely to emerge could EMANATE from exogenous factors, as evidenced by the May 2006 shakeout and the recent February “Shanghai Surprise”. As they may be caused by events in the US, such as withdrawn liquidity from the subprime mortgage fallout or geopolitical policies and reactions thereof (as protectionist measures against China or a military strike on Iran) or a US dollar crash, or possibly (to a lesser degree) in China or other emerging markets (which may cause a domino effect) or unwinding of the of carry trades, however, present day markets appear to have discounted such developments FOR THE MOMENT.

The Significance of the Phisix 3,400

``Investing should be dull. It shouldn't be exciting. Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”- Nobel Economist Paul Samuelson

WHEN 3,400 was mentioned as a benchmark, the significance for this is the “concept of round numbers” as propounded by the legendary trader Jesse Livermore (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator), where he says that a round number crossed for the “first time” should likely keep the momentum going further.

In technical lingo, the Phisix has drifted above the 3,400 level from January 31^st to February 5^th in 1997 whereby its watershed level was reached at 3,447.6 on Feb 3, 1997. The other “high” was in January 4^th of 1994 at 3,308.37.

Figure 4: A Breakout of 3,400 Validates the Path to 10,000?

This means to say that it is NOT the first time for the Phisix to reach the 3,400 level. But should it reattempt to do so, it implies that a sustained breach of such threshold level SHOULD SPUR the Phisix to a much significantly higher level.

And MOST IMPORTANTLY, a sustained breakout connotes of the validity of the underlying PRIMARY STAGE of the Phisix bullmarket (nominally based and not inflation adjusted) which I think buttresses our assumption that the Phisix will conservatively reach 10,000 over the present cycle (barring a global depression) see figure 4.

In addition, in a WORLD OF DIMINISHING RETURNS, a Phisix at 3,400 relative to Friday’s close translates to 5.67% return, so absolute threshold levels basically sets your portfolio returns.

Zimbabwe: An Example of Global Inflationary Bias?

``The financial press sometimes criticizes Federal Reserve policy, but the validity of the fiat system itself is never challenged. Both political parties want the Fed to print more money, either to support social spending or military adventurism. Politicians want the printing presses to run faster and create more credit, so that the economy will be healed like magic- or so they believe.”-Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, The Federal Reserve Monopoly over Money

WE have always argued that markets remain irrational (especially over the short-term) more than we can remain solvent. Because I’ve lately quoted Keynes a lot (based on momentum and NOT on Demand management through government intervention), I have been misconstrued to have turned into a Keynesian cheerleader. No, momentum does not equate to cheerleading nor does it signify my tergiversation from our free market principles to the Keynesian philosophical dogma.

Despite the present developments, risks have not abated and in fact as the IMF pointed out in its recent Global Financial Stability Report, they have been enhanced, the Reuters quotes the IMF, ``Global economic conditions have been supportive of a benign financial environment, but underlying risks and conditions have shifted somewhat since ... September 2006, and have the potential to weaken financial stability.”

Yet, we have been ingrained to think or made to believe by textbooks or by mainstream analysts or by the media that stock market performances are reflective of the performances of corporations or of a nation’s GDP growth. Or simply, a country’s economic progression defines its relative returns with regards to stock market investing or is it?

Figure 5: Mises.org: Zimbabwe: Best Performing Stock Market in 2007?

According to John Paul Koning, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is shaping out to be the best performing stock index in the world up about 595% year to date, and get this, a whopping 12,000% (TWELVE THOUSAND PERCENT) in over 12 months see figure 5!

Yet, Zimbabwe’s economy has rapidly deteriorated over the years due to policies adopted by its tyrant ruler Pres. Robert Mugabe. The Economist Intelligence Unit shows Zimbabwe’s GDP calculated in Billions of US dollars based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at $25.04 billion in 2002 to $21.13 billion in 2006 or a nominal decline of over 15% over the past 5 years!

The reason Zimbabwe’s stock market has been zooming is due to its hyperinflationary state (Germany’s Weimar 1920s experience relived!). Its degenerative economy and its lack of access to financing have led its incumbent government to undertake excessive money printing in order to preserve its powers.

And excessive production of money has reduced its purchasing power of its currency so great that consumer price index have jumped by an astonishing 1,729% a year! Imagine losing the value of your currency by the day!

Now of course, the lack of opportunities under such hyperinflationary landscape has alternatively made its stock market as the ONLY safehaven from the evaporating value of the country’s currency.

John Paul Koning elaborates (emphasis mine)

``According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), the peak-trough-peak pattern that economies demonstrate is not their natural state, but one created by excess growth in money supply and credit. New money is not simply parachuted to everyone equally and at the same time — it is sluiced into the economy at certain initial “entry points”....

``If, as the Austrian theory states, money enters the economy at certain points, it is likely that a nation's stock market will become a prime beneficiary of any monetary expansion. Fresh money enters the economy first through banks and other financial entities who may invest it in shares, or lend it to others who buy shares. Thus stock prices rise relative to prices of things like food and clothes and will outperform as long as this monetary process is allowed to continue.”

``As prices become more misaligned, basic decision-making abilities of normal Zimbabweans are impaired and the day-to-day functioning of the economy deteriorates. Perversely, all of this has forced the government to issue even more currency to make up for budget shortfalls and to buy support. At last measure, the country's consumer price index was rising (i.e., the purchasing power of currency declining), at a rate of 1,729% a year.”

In other words, contrary to the public’s expectations, monetary process contributes to the conditions of the financial markets and not just changes in GDP.

And it is in this regards where we have frequently commented that the appearance of peculiarities (rampaging asset prices amidst deteriorating fundamentals) in the behavior of the global financial markets may actually reflect such inflationary tendencies...but on a benign scale relative to the Zimbabwe’s experience.

Possible symptoms as price misalignments or distortions, rich valuations, record low yields, low volatilities, record low credit spreads, expanding global imbalances and rampant signs of speculation (private equity, mergers and acquisition and exploding hedge funds) on a backdrop of gradually rising consumer prices indices can be viewed as affectations of such monetary processes to the financial markets in contrast to other preconceived theories as the Global Savings Glut, Lack of Investment or dearth of supply of investible instruments.

So when we declare that momentum favors today asset classes, or otherwise seen as “cheerleading”, our premise originates from the perspective where surging money and credit expansion or simply inflationary manifestations have been MADE conducive for the financial sphere to expand its tentacles behind and in support of today’s structurally asset dependent economies.

In the prescient words of Hyman Minsky, ``An understanding of the American economy requires an understanding of how the financial structure is affected by and affects the behavior of the economy over time. The time path of the economy depends upon the financial structure.”

I guess this should apply not just to the American economy but to the global economy as well.

Flash Outlook: Momentum Favors a Phisix Breakout of 3,400!

Happy Easter!

Let me first tell you that as a matter of priorities my concern hinges on a longer term deposition, it is seldom on my part take on short term forecasting.

However, recent developments over the past week have compelled me to issue this outlook.

Figure 1: US Dollar, Gold and Emerging Markets

As the US dollar (trade weighted index) manifests renewed signs of weakening, Gold and emerging markets have lately been showing signs of rejuvenation.

In fact, as shown in Figure 1, emerging market bourses represented by the iShare Emerging Market indices (red candle) have broken into new heights (lower panel) while gold (black line behind) has seen some resurgence and appears to be on its way to test its resistance level at around the 690-695 area.

What these confluences appear to tell us is that the softening US dollar could be providing for the backstop of liquidity in the global financial markets.

Figure 2: US Global Investors/SGS: Commodity prices recover

Where the performances of emerging market assets have shown strong correlation to commodities, Figure 2 shows of how copper prices, steel and the Baltic freight price Index have recently chimed in to exhibit renewed vigor.

These markets appear to contradict expectations of a global economic slowdown or could they imply “decoupling”? Or is it telling us of another message relative to the purchasing power of the US dollar?

Figure 3: Carry Trade Currencies

Our concern of late has been of the liquidity provided for by the carry trade arbitrage, where the recent spike in the low yielding “funding” currencies has served to curtail “liquidity” in the marketplace which prompted for the recent bout of interrelated market corrections.

Today, the current swoon in the both the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen on the backdrop of rallying global assets worldwide suggests to us that the speculative ramp has been set for a possible continuity of in favor of asset upside repricing.

Figure 4: Phisix Peso correlation: Peso Nears breakout, will the Phisix follow suit?

As we have noted in the past, the Peso/USD and the Phisix has shown strong correlations, whereby inflection points have been coincidental (declining Phisix- strengthening USD and vice versa).

At Friday’s close, we see the Peso end at its resistance level relative to the US Dollar as shown in Figure 4. Could we be seeing a breakout of the Peso which should similarly reflect on the Phisix?

At the start of the year, I had neutral to bearish with the Peso and the Phisix considering the market’s cyclicality. I had been expecting a decline at around 2,600-2,800 as a global slowdown unfolds with risks from the US diffusing to the world. That slowdown and cyclical correction appears to have been factored in, in contrast to my expectations, while global markets have taken the next step further.

Yes we are aware that the risks from the US credit markets may yet spread and or liquidity concerns from other aspects as the Carry trend phenomenon or geopolitics may work to forestall the recent advances, however, at the moment, momentum appears to have shifted greatly in favor of the bulls.

So in my view, IF the peso closes below the 48 level, one should expect the PHISIX to bolt out of the 3,400 level SOON.

When asked why the illustrious economist John Maynard Keynes changed his stance on a position his reply was, ``When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

Do your self a favor, call your broker and execute your trading positions.

Happy Trading!

Observations from ADB’s Development Outlook 2007

``It’s a good idea to operate your life on the assumption that unforeseen circumstances are lurking in the shadows, just around the next bend. Which is why it’s wise to handle your finances with the understanding that Fortune does not carry anyone on her shoulders indefinitely.”- Robert Ringer

One of the amazing observations derived from Asian Development’s Bank’s (ADB) recent development outlook can be found in the chart shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: ADB: Treasury Bill Rates: Philippine rates LOWER than US Rates!

We have always argued that the strength of the Peso, so as with the advances of Philippine sovereign bonds, and the Phisix have been determined by foreign portfolio flows at the margin.

However, what seems SO incredible with the picture above is that Philippine short term rates have now been LOWER than that of its US counterpart, as if to suggest that US treasuries have now been seen as “riskier” assets than of Philippine sovereign issues.

Or has the world simply chosen to ignore the context of risks in its past signification? Or has the ocean of liquidity jaded the views of global investors? Or has several theories as “savings glut” (as proposed by Ben Bernanke of the US FED), “lack of investments” (Raghuram Rajan of IMF) or “Asset Shortage” or dearth of bond issuance arising from sustained reforms (Stephen Jen, Charles St-Arnaud of Morgan Stanley) been the underlying factors responsible for the present conditions? In short present conditions have been a worldwide phenomenon and are UNPRECEDENTED by sheer scale and magnitude.

This is what ADB has to say (emphasis mine), ``The banking system’s accumulation of net foreign assets fueled liquidity. Broad money (M3) growth has accelerated in the last few years, driven primarily by this accumulation (Figure 2). In 2006, net domestic credit also reversed from a decline in 2005 to contribute 7.8 percentage points to M3 growth, in large measure reflecting a recovery in credits to the private sector. A decline in the risk premium (based on improved fiscal performance), expectation of peso appreciation, accommodative monetary policy, and buoyant liquidity exerted downward pressure on interest rates. The nominal yield on 91-day treasury bills declined below comparable US treasuries in November (Figure 1) for the first time in 25 years.”

Evidently, Philippine asset classes have benefited from the present dynamics.

Figure 2: ADB: Philippine M3: Buoyant Liquidity Driven by Foreign Assets

Figure 2 simply confirms our long held view that the accumulation of net foreign assets has been important drivers of our asset classes and has contributed immensely to the torrential jump in domestic liquidity.

With even more compressed yields, you may continue to expect more of an impetus to the financial asset classes or to domestic investments. In fact, the FINANCIAL sector has registered the biggest jump in gains among the local industries, according to the IMF’s Selected Issues. Again this is in consonance with the evolving global trends, so much so that with the growing sophistication and the deepening of the financial markets brought about by accelerating trends of integration, such developments are most likely to continue.

In contrast to variable thesis posited presented above, global liquidity, in my view, is a result of massive inflationary activities undertaken by both the public and private domains in the financial world in support of the asset classes from which the present economic structures heavily depend upon.

Figure 3 ADB: Net Capital flows to Emerging Markets Nominal US dollar Exchange Rate Index

Figure 3 shows how strong international fund inflows have thus far boosted the equity markets of the Emerging Markets as well as of Asia Pacific’s. And we also see the same dynamics at work which has led to the firming trend of the Asian region’s currencies.

According to ADB’ Prospects for the world economy 2007 and 2008 (emphasis mine), ``Net private capital flows to emerging Asia amounted to $197.3 billion, only slightly down by 3.9% from the previous year, due to slightly smaller foreign direct investment flows. However, with its strong growth outlook, the region continues to be the primary recipient of private equity investment, attracting again more than 60% of net portfolio equity investment flows to emerging market economies in 2006. Relatively low interest rates and benign liquidity conditions in capital markets have kept private credit flows generally buoyant, benefiting emerging Asian borrowers. Credit spreads remained near record lows for emerging market issuers through most of 2006... Expectations for strong growth will continue to underpin the strength of Asian currencies in 2007, as will narrowing interest rate differentials, due to monetary tightening in some countries.”

Finally, when we talk of globalization, we talk of ever growing trends of greater interdependence in terms of trade and the financial markets. We also discussed in the past of the shared risks and benefits of such phenomenon. ADB affirms this view,

``With its share of exports (on a national accounts basis) close to 50% of GDP in 2006, and its dependence on capital inflows, the Philippines is closely tied to the global economy and to sentiments in international financial markets. This is offset somewhat by the seeming independence of remittances to global disturbances, likely reflecting their diversified origins. Low real interest rates and higher fiscal spending on priority projects should also support growth.

``The peso is likely to maintain its strength, supported by foreign exchange inflows from the balance-of-payments surplus. However, to preserve the price competitiveness of exports against the backdrop of slowing external demand and the appreciation of the peso (in real trade-weighted terms), the central bank may again accumulate foreign exchange reserves to stem the pace of currency appreciation. Measures to liberalize foreign exchange outflows to be effective from April 2007 may also relieve some upward pressure on the peso. They include doubling the amounts of foreign exchange that residents can buy to pay for overseas services and investment abroad....

``The main risk to the projections, apart from the extent of the slowdown in external markets, is the potential impact of the Congressional elections in May 2007. The elections need to be transparent and peaceful, and the fiscal and structural reforms kept on track. Steady progress on privatization will be an important signal to investors on the Government’s commitment.

While we share most of the assessment, the risk side is where we part. As we have previously argued, domestic politics appear to have been desensitized from the activities in the financial markets for as long as the IMPACT to the capital flows framework would be negligible. It is more likely that our financial markets be driven more by developments in the region or of the progress in the financial integration, as the recent “Shanghai Surprise-Yen Carry 2” shakeout last February or that of the May 2006 “Yen Carry” shakedown have shown.

Therefore, the object of our vigilance will continue to be directed at external factors more than that of domestic politics.