History Unfolding: BW-SSO Momentum Sends PSEi to 8,100 as Market Cap PER Zoomed to 28!!!

This morning I wrote, “rising stocks have become an entitlement. Combine such overweening outlook with the one way trade sentiment and the lingering trauma (PSTD) from the previous episodes of crashes; the mechanical response has been to savagely bid up the headline index after each account of corrections…Corrections are not allowed even during intraday sessions!

 

No correction allowed even during the day. Today should be another example.

The PSEi was down from the opening bell until the lunch recess. It dropped by a modest.33% just momentarily after the break. Only 3 of the top 11 issues were up.

But operation ‘afternoon delight’ immediately went into action. Sustained heavy pumping on SMPH, SM and MBT tried to offset losses led by AC and ALI. AC was even down by as much as 1% at its lowest during the day.

Yet the pump succeeded in the conversion of the dominant sellers into buyers!

By 3pm, the PSEi was neutral! Losses by most of the top 11 PSEi issues were either mitigated or reversed!

Past 3 pm, AC turned positive. And so did the index.

Then panic buying went into a hyper mode.

And as routine, the PSEi's afternoon delight pump climaxed with a price fixing push which contributed to about 30% of the day’s close.

The PSEi has breached 8,100!

I have also said early this morning that “history has been unfolding right here, right now.”

For the bulls history would mean the old record high of 8,100.

For the third time this year, officials of the PSEi today celebrated on a yet to break April 10 2015 record high: "We see local and foreign investor confidence getting a boost from expectations that the Philippine economy will continue to outperform its peers. This should hopefully reflect in corporate performance," said PSE President and CEO Hans B. Sicat.

Even after adjusting for 2015 earnings two weeks back, unfortunately, PSE officials have seemingly been remiss (or oblivious) of their duties to public to publish even a summary, via their press room, of the earnings performance for the year 2015. They forgot to report on 2Q and 3Q 2015 performance too. 

Why the silence? And how ironic for them to talk about corporate performance when the PSEi hits their price targets!

Yet the PSE gives a clue on their reticence: PSEi prices “Hopefully reflect in corporate performance”.   So high prices equals G-R-O-W-T-H!  Yet the lack of improvement in the past means silence!

Nevertheless hope is different from fact or reality.  This also means that for the PSE, hope has been the guiding principle of the present run!

But the alternative view is that unfolding history represents climatic mania in process.

As of today’s close, the average PER was at a shocking 27.142! The market cap weighted PER was at an even more nosebleed 27.9. Such level has almost reached the peak PER of 1997 at 28.21!

Yet why has the PSE not reported on this too? Ah yes of course, PERs are essentially earnings.

More importantly, high PERs signify a product of collective BW-SSO blow off patterns!

Today’s index drivers virtually on a BW-SSO mode!

 

SMPH up by a stunning 3.51% ramp today! MPI had a huge 3.73% run! Panic buying at the top! Why?

 

For today,  price gains of AC +.56%, MBT +2.65%, SM +.79% and RLC +.15% only exacerbated on the violent upside price trends!

Yesterday I wrote, “If momentum picks up, in the same way as BW and SSO, then there should be a TERMINAL blowoff phase. Stock prices (by many firms) will contemporaneously spike by even a larger proportion than today, over the next two-three weeks. And this means 8,127.48 will be taken down. The PSE will have a shindig. But as BW and SSO patterns reveal, the sharp upside movements of the FINAL vertical stage would redound to or will be followed by an equally sharp downside. The vertical ramp will be erased. Greed will morph into Fear. And fear will strike into very hearts of the market participants”

Today’s actions have reinforced manifestations of the transition towards the final blow off phase.

 

Finally, explosive moves, if history should rhyme, will end with a grand implosion.

Bonus chart: MWIDE shows of an fantastic 50% surge via the Viagra effect in just 17 days! That’s about 2.94% returns a day! Explosive moves everywhere.

Why work or invest when free lunches exist!

Phisix 8,050: BW-SSO Pumping Like Actions Escalates!

As I have been saying here, rising stocks have become an entitlement. Combine such overweening outlook with the one way trade sentiment and the lingering trauma (PSTD) from the previous episodes of crashes; the mechanical response has been to savagely bid up the headline index after each account of corrections.

Three days of actions has only confirmed on my viewpoint

Monday’s (-.55%) correction had to be neutralized by Tuesday’s furious pumping (+.62%). And Wednesday’s +.2% was a consequence of a largely marginally down day which had been reversed by another spectacular last minute pump. Corrections are not allowed even during intraday sessions!

And in ALL three days, we see “marking the closes” or price fixing actions as determining the outcome of the headline index.

To repeat, you see nothing close to this in terms of the degree of manipulation in any part of the world. Not even in Japan or in China where stock market interventions function as an official policy. Price fixing was hardly an issue in the run up to May 2013 7,400 record.

Aside from the above, yesterday, I sent a note on the deepening degree of ballistic price movements or actions that has resonated with BW and SSO bubbles.

Yesterday’s modest headline gains effectively masked the awesome intensifying blowoff phases in various issues

AEV continues with its BW moves which has only picked up steam.  

SM once again set a fresh record from a renewed parabolic surge.

Note: none of the two had such degree of vertical movements over the past 3 years. Yes that’s even during 8,127.48 in April 10, 2015!

AC has been in the same process, it hit a new record yesterday again from frantic bids that has sent its stock vertical.

RLC was yesterday’s newcomer. RLC has lifted past the old highs via vertically based pumps

I was in Robinsons Galleria last Monday. Interestingly outside the renovations in some declared sections (fastfood and the Ortigas exit or part of the West Wing particularly the 2nd and 3rd floor or the sports section), vacancies have mushroomed even at the prime areas! 

Soaring stock prices amidst rising vacancies—yes what stunning contradictions!

Also GTCAP broke out of its 2015 high via a manic pump

During the new millennium, BW and SSO were separate and isolated stock specific bubbles which eventually blew up.

In 2016, 10 PSEi issues hit a record high this year via BW-SSO price actions. 7 posted new highs last Friday. Five of the seven served up on such parabolic streak yesterday. 14 of the top 15 issues also has seen vertical price actions. The difference is that the others have yet to reach fresh records. They are laggards doing a catch up.

In short, while BW and SSO were isolated stock specific bubbles of their era, in 2016 the headline index or the PSEi itself represents a systemic bubble based on the collective actions of its composite members

That’s why history is unfolding, right here, right now. Explosive moves, if history rhymes, will will end with a grand implosion!

Remember all these have been happening even as the PSEi remains at 8,050 or BELOW April 2015’s high!

You see for the crowd, this time is different.

And “this time is different” according to the legendary guru the late Sir John Templeton represents the four most dangerous words of investing.