Has Mr. Duterte read me?
From my list of potential ramifications from the foreign policy effects of the war on drugs (Upping the Ante of Geopolitical Blackmail: Duterte Tells US Government: Time for You to Leave! September 13; the earlier version, Path to Ochlocratic Dictatorship: Legal Adviser Panelo: Emergency Powers Drafted Before Davao Bombing! Philippine Ad Hominem Politics Slams US President, September 6)
it would be a lot cheaper or cost effective for the US government to engage in covert operations to influence the domestic political environment than to pullout from the country. The US government may surreptitiously work to offset whatever leverage the administration has been building to countermand the US government’s influences in the country. The US government has been no stranger to the financing, influencing and orchestrating destabilization to regimes it perceives as hostile to its interests. Operation Gladio should be a stark reminder.
From the International Business Times (October 7)
In his latest rant, President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, has once again lashed out at Western critics of his deadly war on drugs. This time, he has dared the United States to use the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to "oust" him.
Duterte made the comments while making a speech to mark his first 100 days in office, during which he insisted that foreign forces would not intimidate him into ending his campaign against illicit drugs. Last month, the Philippines' President accused the CIA of plotting to kill him, however, he did not elaborate on this.
Perhaps in reaction to US threat to cut military aid, which I pointed out last week, which the Philippine government responded that they can cope without aid (Telegraph October 7), not only has the Philippine leadership put on hold the joint military exercises with the US Telegraph October 7), the Philippine government reportedly announced an end to its military relationship with the US.
From the IBT (October 8): The Philippines' bombastic President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered a halt to his nation's 65-year military alliance with the United States. Duterte, who is locked in a bitter war of words with the US, has taken steps to suspend joint military patrols and ordered American troops to leave the country…"This year would be the last," Duterte said according toThe Guardian on Friday (7 October) in the southern city of Davao. "For as long as I am there, do not treat us like a doormat because you'll be sorry for it. I will not speak with you. I can always go to China."
Ironically, the US government says that they will still provide military assistance to the Philippine government worth $180 million for the fiscal year of 2017 or Oct. 1, 2016 to Sept. 30, 2017. (Philstar October 8, 2016)
It has been a curiosity for the Philippine government to continue to float threats to its existence through repeated coup alerts (Philstar October 4). Given that Mr Duterte has been buying the loyalty of the military and police, aside from renewed confidence from high popularity ratings (76% satisfaction, Inquirer October 6), it would be bizarre for the regime to believe that there is an immediate threat from a coup.
But if the US government should make good of Mr. Duterte’s provocations for his ouster, then this unlikely would come soon. The US government will most possibly secure some popular support for such covert operations; otherwise it would risk an embarrassing failure, e.g. Bay of Pigs 1959, Cuba.
And part of this process may be to incite destabilization moves (e.g. bombings, terrorism) through financing and arming of dissidents (ala Syria’s civil war).
Of course, given how fluid things have been moving, nothing can be discounted. But the probability is slim for such events to occur soon.
So in the interim, the likely path for a potentially retaliatory US government will be to deal with the provocateur Philippine leadership through the realm of funding, credit, markets and the economy. And this would come in the form of, not only the desistance of aid provisions but more importantly credit downgrades (see earlier notes), economic and financial sanctions and the closing of credit and financial spigot to the country.
As a personal note, I do not support inter-government interventions, but I am simply parsing present domestic events from the perspective of geopolitical realities.
However, I am inclined to view that such brinkmanship geopolitics as representative of a stage in a process or a means to an end.
After securing high popularity ratings, which I have noted here, have not been about compulsive obsessive hissy fits but part of the PR campaign structured on the superhero effect—“Anyone who dares criticize on his supposed mandate to use extrajudicial means to his pet project the “war on drugs” will be subjected to ad hominem politics through intimidation, expletives and threats at the very least. The idea is to paint himself as sincere, steadfast in commitment, and morally upright to his followers” (Phisix 7,580: Media "Cries Uncle" as the Maginot Defense Line Caves In! September 11)—the next phase will likely be directed at the dissolution of the present institutions, and consequently, to reconstitute them into a government of Mr. Duterte’s mold.
Of course, this won’t happen immediately. This needs popular support if such change would be coursed through constitutional means. Otherwise, those coup threats may really be a form of public conditioning to a coming false flag operation. And such false flag may justify not only the imposition of martial law to augment to the present emergency powers but an administration led coup or counter-coup (ala Turkey’s Erdogan’s repressive response to a foiled overthrow this year)
Mr. Duterte’s attack on red tape could be seen as an example. While on the surface this should be a worthwhile cause, the leadership’s proposed solution is to allot one hour of public programming supposedly to listen to public’s gripes on red tape. This has been promoted as to allegedly to discipline the erring parts of the bureaucracy (GMA7 October 7). It’s really a very populist move.
But red tape is a function of legislation, edicts and executive directives which implementation has been channeled through the bureaucracy. Because the roots of red tape are legal, political and institutional, to eliminate red tape requires the abolishment of the underpinnings of specific political administrative mechanisms. Or real elimination of red tape requires liberalization.Previous administrations have worked to reduce rate tape and fixers to no avail. That’s because even if one streamlines the process the roots remain, hence such actions tend to be superficial in nature.
Besides, one justification for bigger budgets emanates from a bigger government. So the incentive for the powers-that-be will be to introduce MORE politicization of society. In this way or the deeper politicization of society would rationalize the demand for more redistribution or various political spending (such as defense infrastructure and more) programs, through a bigger budget. Simply put, the bigger the politicization of the economy, the bigger the government; the bigger the government, the bigger the budget. So why should Mr. Duterte eliminate the politicization of the economy when this should benefit him (financially—greater access to taxpayer money/resources—and politically—greater control of the economy and political organizational hierarchy)?
Additionally, the war on drugs and the adoption of more repressive politics through an expansionary government will lead to MORE and not less red tape.
So actions like these are meant to reinforce popularity ratings more than to attain real reforms. And by diminishing the appeal of incumbent legal and political institutions, such paves way for a one-man rule. And because of the superhero syndrome, shallow measures are seen approvingly by the masses.
Socialist dictators are usually very popular. Present day examples. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez was elected for four terms (died in office a 2 months after the fourth electoral victory). Present president Nicolas Madurowas a Chavez VP and a protégé. Today, many Venezuelans eat pets and break into zoos to eat animalsbecause of food shortages.
The husband and wife tandem of Argentina the Kirchners were elected for three terms (Nestor 1, Cristina 2).
Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe won in the general elections to assume the role of Prime Minister in 1980. Mugabe still rules Zimbabwe after 36 years. He won the last general elections in 2008. In mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation reached the second largest in the world ever: a monthly rate of 79,600,000,000% or prices doubled every 24.7 hours!
So not even economic perdition has upset the stranglehold of populist dictators
Finally, while the public have been treated to a bread and circus spectacle on the local senate which purportedly aims to investigate extralegal killings, where ironically legal measures have been used to harass and oppress the opposition, the political arm or the parent of the NPA, the NDF has been flexing its political muscle.
In their negotiations with the Duterte government under the CASER (Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms) held at Oslo Norway, the once spent political force will now carry a weight in determining economic policies which are part of the peace process deal.
The NDF proposes the following: (GMA7, October 6)
-Carry out agrarian reform and national industrialization;
-Advance the rights of exploited, oppressed, discriminated and disadvantaged sectors of society;
-Uphold, protect, defend and promote economic sovereignty; and
-Conserve the national patrimony and protect the environment.
Aside from land reform and national industrialization, the government and NDF are expected to discuss the proposed bilateral ceasefire agreement and an amnesty proclamation on the second round of peace talks.
Well, remember this?
From my first non prudent investor note: Changing the System is a Time Consuming Process; Duterte’s Backdoor Strategy (May 18)
Just look at the jobs offered by the Duterte administration to the communist.
It represents communism at the very core.
Labor: This is the Marxian stronghold. This will be the ‘class war’ or war orchestrated against the establishment oligarchic capitalists and entrepreneurs by the proletariat through the apparatchiks. They are most likely to promote the interests of the labor class through labor disputes and regulations. This will be a subtle strike on "liberalization"
This is also a popularity generating measure. There are more labor voters than entrepreneurs.
Social Welfare: The aim of all socialist government is collectivism. Therefore, the welfare state will be expanded to advance class dependency by a larger segment of the populace to the state. Doing so advances their class war. By the way, these are how votes/popularity will be generated for the communists at the grassroots level
Agrarian Reform: Land distribution has been one of the main channels for the spread of communism at the countrysides. This was evident in the twentieth century. The agrarian reform agenda simply means farms must be owned by the state and shared to its constituents. Again agrarian reform will signify a critical means to promote class division and the confiscation of private property.
As a political goal, there are more farmers than landowners or the landed gentry.
Environment: Land is a key factor of economic production. And this is why the environment position is also critical in as much as it is for the agriculture. The communist aim is for the complete control over resources. This not only secures funding for their programs, it is also designed to ensure logistics and control of production. Argentina’s socialist Kirchner government renationalized oil development YPF in 2012 to secure oil production for financing and economic control
So these appointments would signify as strategic positioning by Mr. Duterte. Media tries to rationalize things which they hardly comprehend.
As for purported liberalization
Mr. Duterte can try to blend, but when conflict arises, ideology will precede in priority over mechanism.
The demands of the NDF are practically the positions earlier offered by the Duterte government. The leadership scaled down on appointments to the red, possibly because of unaired reluctance from the military. This is about to change.
If the Duterte government accommodates his patron and mentor, then we shall see the “war on everything” spread to the economy. There will be a spate of nationalizations, or if not, an avalanche of regulations that will be applied to control private enterprises in order to convert them into Hitler’s fascist economic model (privately owned but government directed enterprises)
As I have said, politics is a time-consuming process.
The writing is on the wall.
