Global Risks Rise Amidst Market Euphoria

``There are a terrible lot of lies going around the world, and the worst of it is half of them are true.” Winston Churchill

FORECASTING markets, particularly over the short-term, is an incorrigibly tricky pursuit. Variable gyrations and wildly random pendulum swings characterizes the market’s volatility whose directions over the short term are as good as a “throw of dice”. Curtly said, your guess is as good as mine. In the words of Benoit Mandlebrot, author of the Misbehavior of Markets, ``All is not hopeless. Markets are turbulent, deceptive, prone to bubbles, infested by false trends. It may well be that you cannot forecast prices. But evaluating risk is another matter entirely.”

And risk evaluation and assessment is what distinguishes us from the rest of the domestic playing field, simply because our paramount aim has been to preserve capital, aside from maximizing profit opportunities and containing losses.

Of course, we try to heed on Warren Buffett’s invaluable advice of reading and applying on Ben Graham or Phil Fisher’s principles in relation to the “macro” stuffs, and don’t engage in equations with “Greek” letters on them, especially on “technical grounds” as some others do.

Figure 1: Guardian: World Economic Forum: Complex and Interconnected Global Risk Environment

I have interminably argued that today’s market landscape has dramatically shifted, such that the “Globalization” platform phenomenon backed by the “technological telecommunication and information revolution” has tremendously increased the interconnectedness or the correlations of our market’s movements with that of the world’s. In doing so, our domestic market have now been subjected to the ebbs and flows of global capital, sharing with it, as much of its benefits, the risks of an “increasingly complex and turbulent complex world” as shown in Figure 1.

Notes the World Economic Forum in their Global Risks 2007 (emphasis mine) ``In an increasingly complex and interconnected global environment, risks can no longer be contained within geographical or system boundaries. No one company, industry or state can successfully understand and mitigate global risks.”

All this goes to show that for as long as the world continues on its path towards the evolution of greater economic and financial interdependence, its markets, business environments, national and macro economies, aside from political, social and cultural dimensions are likely to evolve towards encompassing more developmental convergences, relative to risks and benefits.

With no less than the recent ASEAN meeting in held in our Cebu to corroborate on this perspective, according to China’s Xinhua/People’s Daily Online (emphasis mine), ``In the signed document, ASEAN leaders reiterated their conviction that "an ASEAN Charter will serve as a firm foundation in achieving one ASEAN Community by providing an enhanced institutional framework as well as conferring a legal personality to ASEAN."

Figure 2: McKinsey Global Institute: Record Cross-border Capital Flows

In addition, as testament to a world of greater integration, global capital flows have reached record levels where the Compounded Average Growth Rate (CAGR) has steepened to an average of 10.7% per annum during the last 15 years compared to 4.3% during 1980 to 1990 period, as shown in Figure 2, where in such environs the emergence of the global investors class has evolved.

In its 3^rd Annual Report, McKinsey Global Institute, noted that (emphasis mine), ``In 2005, worldwide cross-border capital flows, which include foreign purchases of equity and debt securities, cross-border lending, and foreign direct investment (FDI), increased to more than $6 trillion, the highest level ever. Since 1990, cross-border capital flows have grown 10.7 percent annually,10 outpacing growth in world GDP (3.5 percent), trade (5.8 percent), and financial stock (8.7 percent). Advances in technology and the deregulation of financial markets around the world have enabled this growth and given rise to a growing class of global investors. Although investors in most countries still show a marked preference for financial assets of their home country, roughly one in four debt securities and one in five equities today is owned by an investor outside the local issuing market—for instance, a US investor buying Thai equities, or a German investor buying US bonds. National financial markets are increasingly integrating into a single global market for capital.”

Plainly stated, much of the world’s developments matters for us today than the “wisdom of conventional thinking” would have it. To paraphrase New York Times’ columnist Thomas Friedman in his bestseller, the WORLD is indeed becoming FLAT.

For us, business or financial models or paradigms and market analysis would have to deal with the instrumentalities of present realities rather deluding ourselves of insularity.

To be get ahead of the curve, one has to learn how to adopt on the strategies or approaches underpinned by the present trends and risks, otherwise lose out to either obsolescence or competition.

Which brings us back to our risks analysis, the World Economic Forum (WEF) through their Global Risk Network identifies 23 global risks subdivided into the segments of economics, environment and geopolitics, The Guardian quotes the WEF warning (emphasis mine), ``Expert opinion suggests that levels of risk are rising in almost all of the 23 risks on which the Global Risk Network has been focused over the last year, but mechanisms in place to manage and mitigate risk at the level of businesses, government and global governance are inadequate."

The WEF enumerates the five major economic risks namely, an oil price shock, a plunge in the US dollar, a hard landing in China, budget crises caused by ageing populations and a crash in asset prices, which has been ``more acute than at this time last year”.

It also cited worsening instances of the four out of five environmental risks, particularly climate change, loss of fresh water supplies, tropical storms and inland flooding.

Aside from the incremental escalations in six geopolitical risk factors, specifically, international terrorism, WMD, war, failed states, instability in the Middle East and a retrenchment from globalisation. The WEF warns that if such factors tip into a degree of intractability, ``the environment for business and society could be changed beyond recognition."

True, today’s financial markets have been discounting much of these factors, in fact, the world equity markets appear to be exceedingly ebullient.

While some domestic technical “experts” have claimed in consonance to my view that today’s market has been quite overheated, following a semblance of retracement, the Phisix and the global markets rallied sharply at the end of the week which once again took queue from the actions in the US markets, despite the asymmetric or discordant signals from the broader financial markets (rallying US dollar and gold, declining bonds, copper and oil.) as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: ChartoftheDay.com: Dow Jones at Critical Juncture

Here chartoftheday.com says that while the Dow is in critical juncture following the string of record high closes amidst its astonishing climb in a backdrop of a litany worries, it has to yet hurdle its three-year trading channel to steer clear of technical obstacles, which incidentally could also prove to be its decisive bump.

Figure 4: Stockcharts.com: Phisix, Dow Ex-Japan Asia Index and the Morgan Stanley Emerging Free

However, if you take a gander at figure 4, the Dow Jones 1800 Ex-Japan Index (black line superimposed), a benchmark consisting of 1,800 companies throughout Asia, the Morgan Stanley Emerging Free Indices (black line lower panel), a benchmark of the broad universe of emerging markets “developing economies” benchmarks and the Philippine Phisix, the movements including short-term fluctuations have been almost similar to the extent that the recent retracements or even the “timing” at the end of the week rally appears to have been “orchestrated”. No conspiracy theory here, just a depiction of the congruity by global markets.

And to consider the Philippine setting, today’s market activities have been envisaged by massive outperformances of companies with little fundamentals. Formerly dormant companies with little or no operations have been taking the centerstage accruing mouth-salivating gains that have been attributed to corporate stories of potential backdoor listings, Mergers & Acquisitions and/or plain vanilla “push” by certain interest groups.

The recent easy gains have ostensibly lured vulnerable retail investors, the last among the investing group to get involved, to undertake aggressive moves in the broader market.

Such conspicuous froth have been simply reflective of an outgrowth of an accelerating speculative mindset, where one could even hear arguments stating that “nothing in the local arena poses as significant threat to present conditions”.

Markets Make Opinion

``The Masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusion is always their victim.” -Gustave Le Bon, The Crowd

As we have noted last week, “Markets make Opinion”, where “experts” and journalists in complicity draw up to form what is known as the “conventional wisdom”, a simplified explanation for market causalities.

First, the public including local mainstream experts have the tendency to be guided by the “recency bias” or the “rear view mirror” or “anchoring” syndrome, where they extrapolate the most recent past and project them into the future.

Second, the lack of perspective, our experts have been inclined to cite whatever headlines in order justify today’s market’s action. In behavioral finance, such is called “rationalization”.

Third, as we noted last week, it’s all about incentives; the merrier the market, the appearance of a more risk-free environment encourages “experts” to amplify the short-term risk appetites of the average investors.

Yet flurries of short-term trades or overtrading are manifestations of the folly of overconfidence; one of the major reasons why the average investors are left to hold the proverbial empty bag when the cycle reverses.

Nonetheless, such pressures for short-term gains come irrespective of potential risks. Typical brokers encourage investors towards more technical approach to the market, in order to whet their appetites for greater turnovers.

Anyway, Figure 5 is a chart from the normally Panglossian research outfit, the Taipan group which dissects upon the effects of an economic slowdown combined with a declining trend of corporate earnings in the US to the possible performance of US markets in 2007.

Figure 5: Taipan Group: The Coming Earnings Crunch

Let me quote Steven Lord, editor of the Trend Investor of the Taipan Group (emphasis mine), ``The above chart, tracking the earnings of the S&P 500 since the middle of 2003 and applying estimates through the third quarter of 2007 from Thomson Financial, shows the steady decline in year-over-year percentage gains. Companies in the S&P have expanded earnings at a double-digit pace for the last 13 consecutive quarters -- or for the last three years....This leaves the stock market, perched as it is close to record levels, with only one way to move higher -- multiples have to expand. In other words, for stocks to rise significantly from here investors will have to pay “more” for a dollar of earnings in 2007 than they did in 2006, via a re-rating of the market’s overall P/E ratio. With earnings trending down and the economy slowing, awarding a higher P/E ratio is the only way for the market to rise from here. While not impossible -- at roughly 15, the market is hardly overvalued on a P/E basis -- it is clearly a higher risk strategy than we have seen for the past few years.”

Higher price multiple implies for richer valuations which makes today’s approach to the equities market clearly a higher risk strategy as Mr. Lord warns. Yet momentum remains tilted towards an acceleration of prices regardless of economic realities, where multiples could even reach bubble-like proportions as in 2000.

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent says the illustrious economist John Maynard Keynes. Yes, today’s market environment may even surprise hard-core technicians that prevailing euphoric sentiments could lead to parabolic or sharply vertical moves; a speculative blowoff top in spite of present risks.

Considering the high-risk proposition of today’s market climate, it is probably best to simply keep your present positions and avoid overtrading and anteing up heavily by chasing prices.

Since the market has palpably been rotating it would be of lesser risk to employ risk capital to issues that have lagged, and hope for a contagion, i.e. if the itch to join the bandwagon trade becomes irresistible. Here position sizing greatly matters.

Moreover, one must keep in mind the basic market tenet that NO TREND GOES IN A STRAIGHT LINE. Such that while I remain bullish with the SECULAR or long term trend cycle of the Phisix, current conditions have raised the risk profile for investors to warrant a more cautious approach to the market.

It is also recommended or advisable to employ the practice of TIGHTENING of your STOPS in case the market does unwind. Remember, the steeper the market climbs, the harder its potential fall.

Unifying Global Stock Markets; Asia Looks Next!

``Over the next three to five years, we will become global and more diversified. The next logical spot is Asia. At some point we want a position in the Chinese market and in the Indian market."--John Thain, CEO of The NYSE Group

In its 3^rd annual report the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the Global Capital markets-equity securities, private and government debt securities and bank deposits reached US$ 140 trillion in 2005 representing about 316% of the Global GDP as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: McKinsey Global Institute: 2005 Global Financial Assets

Global equities which accounted for about 31% of the financial pie contributed the most growth among these assets in 2005, according to McKinsey, ``Equities accounted for nearly half of growth in global financial assets in 2005, increasing by $7.1 trillion. Although Japan had the largest single gain in equity markets, with an increase of $1.5 trillion, equities’ growth was broad-based. The eurozone saw its stock of equities increase by $1.2 trillion; the United States by $650 billion; and the United Kingdom by $550 billion. Equities also accounted for more than half of emerging markets’ growth in financial assets—with growth of $2.2 trillion.”

As global equities are expected to reach $59 trillion in 2010, the race towards the industry’s consolidation has apparently intensified.

At the end of 2006, two major stock exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the world’s largest stock exchange in US dollar terms and the Euronext- Continental Europe’s largest bourse which runs Paris, Armsterdam and Lisbon, obtained the respective approval by their shareholders to a merger of giants. Last week, the European regulators formalized the approval of the US$15 billion merger.

Following the failed takeover offer by the Macquarie Bank, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) received a bid by NYSE’s key rival, the NASDAQ in March of 2006. As the NASDAQ negotiated its way through the takeover deal, it worked to accumulate LSE shares, which today accounts for a hefty 28.75% of England’s bourse. Having been spurned twice, NASDAQ’s active offer remains in abeyance even as the LSE options dissipate following the finalization of the NYSE-Euronext merger and Deutsche Börse withdrawal from the bidding contest. A resolution to this takeover offer could be realized this year with a growing likelihood of its completion.

Even in the futures market we are witnessing the same thrust: In 2006 the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) proposed to acquire Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) that would create the world’s largest futures exchange in a deal worth about $8 billion. Presently awaiting regulatory approval and the endorsement from the shareholders the merger is likewise expected be completed by 2007.

With the revolutionary advances in the field of communications and information technology-the advent of on-line electronic trading platforms makes it possible for real-time electronic transactions regardless of the geographical distance.

Grounded on this premise, the major exchanges appears to be in a rush to integrate financial services, to diversify and expand their market coverage, reduce transaction (bookkeeping, clearing and settlement) costs by achieving the economies of scale, to eliminate further inefficiencies by way of human intervention, provide for financial depth by attracting global investors (to augment the demand side), traders and listing companies (to increase supply side), to improve on liquidity by easily matching buyers and sellers, and finally, adapt to the ongoing changes in marketplace by being accessible to the growing significance of institutional investors [pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds and insurance companies] as compared to retail investors in the past.

With the global trade and economic structure presently favoring Asia, as evidenced by its exploding foreign exchange reserves and rapidly rising per capita and middle class, its largely fragmented and underdeveloped financial markets makes it a potential ground for an explosive expansion. According to McKinsey Global, ``Perhaps more surprising is the fact that Asian countries have the largest links not with Japan or Hong Kong, but with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, underscoring the lack of an integrated Asian financial market.”

Under such vein, NYSE’s CEO John Thain said in an interview last December at CBS that Asia “is the next logical step” for expansion. Mr. Thain opines that demutualization as prerequisite prior to any possible alliances (instead of acquisitions), and that entities will be “kept separate with no regulatory crossovers”. Mr. Thain was said to be eyeing Japan, China and India.

At the onset of 2007, NYSE’s Mr. Thain wasted no time into taking concrete action with his plans. In a rapid fire succession, he recently stitched up an alliance with Tokyo, joined a team of investors which included investment bank Goldman Sachs and private equity firm General Atlantic to acquire 20% of the India’s largest stock exchange the Mumbai based National Stock Exchange and even Australia’s ASX caught up on the speculative excitement as the next potential deal for NYSE. On Friday, the Australian Stock Exchange jumped 4.5%.

Today, the Philippine Stock Exchange, despite its miniscule capitalization and traded volume relative to global standards or its peers, will be an inescapable part of the ongoing global trends to unify financial market exchanges, such that in the future it will a party to any potential alliances, or consolidations by mergers or acquisitions, as well as, take into account the realization of cross-border listings, after progress on regulatory hurdles would have been met and expanding trading facilities to possibly include other asset markets.

In the future, you and I would be able to possibly trade US, European or any neighboring countries stock listings that could be accessed by the local trading platform at our very homes.

All these will not happen overnight but is part of the ongoing seismic shift in the financial realm. This is just one of the many steps towards the Phisix 10,000!

Are Unit Investment Trusts (UIT) Good Investments Today?

``Information is the currency of the Internet. As a medium, the Internet is brilliantly efficient at shifting information from the hands of those who have it into the hands of those who do not...The Internet has accomplished what even the most fervent consumer advocate usually cannot; it has vastly shrunk the gap between the experts and the public. The Internet has proven particularly fruitful for situations in which a face-to-face encounter with an expert might actually exacerbate the problem of asymmetrical information-situations in which an expert uses his informational advantage to make us feel stupid or rushed or cheap or ignoble.”-Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner in Freakonomics

Prior to the Christmas break, I was asked if Unit Investment Trusts (UIT) would be a good way to go, for the coming year. To my understanding, UITs operate like mutual funds in the sense that it holds a portfolio of securities. But unlike mutual funds they have been designed for a specific length of time and structured as a fixed portfolio. I was particularly asked, which among the bank’s locally offered portfolio namely, the Peso denominated fixed income, equity or combination of (balance fund), I would recommend, considering the bank’s bullish outlook for the coming year.

To the surprise of the client, my response was to buy US dollars (relative to the Peso) or US dollar short term fixed income instruments and Precious Metals or its proxy (mines) instead.

It is not that I seek to purposely become a contrarian, but my interest considering today’s ambiguous investing climate, is to preserve capital or minimize losses and optimize profits, yet much of today’s optimism comes in the light of a global downshifting of economic growth or a heightened risk environment.

It’s all about Incentives

During the holiday, I came about a very insightful book of which I am in halfway, by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, called “Freakonomics” which essentially deals with how people respond to incentives; to both negative and positive stimulus, something like getting penalized for committing mistakes or receiving awards for a job well done.

Similar to the Austrian School of Economics “Praxeology” which basically deals with the study of human conduct, Mr. Levitt and Dubner wrote (emphasis mine), ``An incentive is simply a means of urging people to do more of a good thing and less of a bad thing. But most incentives don’t come about organically. Someone-an economist or a politician or a parent-has to invent them.”

For instance, in the environment where a country’s currency is rising, mainstream economists would demand for government intervention in support of the export industry, or politicians in response to a public’s outrage would act to impose restrictions or regulations such as the recent “Anti-billboard law”, or a parent would ground their child based on current misbehavior.

And in many instances, as Freakonomics team cites, an individual or the public or society responds to such incentives in manners which have not been anticipated, wherein, as the Freakonomics team says “the conventional wisdom is often wrong”.

Let me cite possible analogies in the local arena; while Economics 101 tell us that rising currencies are essentially bad for exports, why are there “substantially” numerous if not greatly significant cases of Asian, European and Latin American countries with rising currencies YET accompanied by years of rapidly GROWING exports?

Or the Freakonomics team quotes risk communication expert Peter Sandman in New York Times (emphasis mine),``The basic reality is the risks that scare people and the risks that kill people are very different...When hazard is high and outrage is low, people underreact, and when hazard is low and outrage is high, they overreact.” An example would be the dread of death from terrorism than from heart attack.

In the Philippine setting, could the recent Anti-Billboard law as a consequence of a once-in-10 year event, i.e. Typhoon Milenyo’s direct hit to Manila, reflect an overreaction to a low-hazard-high-outrage circumstance?

Since there are three basic forms incentives, moral (how the people would like the world to function), social and economic (“how it actually does work”-Freakonomics), I would relate to the latter with respect to this field of endeavor.

In such light, the economic incentives for brokers, bankers, fund managers and investors are divergent. Brokers earn by commissions, thereby our incentive is to encourage market participants to trade more. Bankers, on the other hand, earn by fees, whereby to entice the public for more placements opportunities by offering more products, while fund managers earn by a combination of fees and profit-sharing scheme, where the purported incentive is to earn from more placements and investing profitably (return based).

While the investing public seeks to grow their money through the incentives of “rate of returns”, it is incumbent upon them to understand the incentives of the intermediary they deal or transact with. Simply because the investing public’s incentives more often than not varies and could, in fact, be in conflict with their intermediary’s interest.

So it would be natural for bankers or fund managers or brokers to promote their product line or services regardless of the return outlook because it is their “economic incentive” to do so.

The Wisdom of Conventional Thinking

Now relative to the “wisdom of conventional thinking”, today’s investor sentiments emanating from the recent buoyancy in global equity markets could be depicted through this newspaper heading...

Figure 1: SCMP: December 30 Headline: “20,000” Roaring Through

The headline above from South China Morning Post reveals of the conspicuously bullish overtones by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (+34.2% year-to-date) which recently carved fresh record highs, like almost any other benchmark indices all over the world.

For money managers, these are known as the “Magazine Cover or Newspaper Headline” indicators, a contrarian signal. Since the “incentive” of the press is to “sell its media to the public”, it usually does so by conveying recent developments backed by a STRONG consensus view. In other words, they vend information which caters to mostly what the public wants to hear about.

This reminds me vividly of the yearend 2004 where several magazines as the Economist declared the “Death” of the US dollar following two successive years of rout. In 2005, the US dollar simply proved the consensus wrong by rebounding mightily across the board.

Figure 2: Phisix At 3,000 level backed by Strong Peso on Massive Foreign Inflows

At the start of the year, I forecasted that the conditions of the Peso and the region would reflect on the Phisix see January 2 to 6 edition, (2006: Global Liquidity and the US Dollar to Drive the Phisix), ``It is apropos to view the recent strengths in Asian bourses as well as in the Phisix to the incipient signs of the US dollar strength reversal. This essentially serves as the bullish case for the Phisix.”

As shown in Figure 2, the Phisix ended the year up 42.29% for its best performance in over a decade, with gains of almost the same intensity as the inception of the bull run in 2003 (+41.63%) and for its fourth consecutive year of advance in synchronicity with global equity markets.

Figure 3: Asianbondsonline.com: Declining Yield Spreads of on Major USD Philippine issues

Apparently, the massive inflows from foreign money came at the heels when I became alot cautious calling for extra vigilance in the latter half of the year from the same outlook, ``On the later semester of the year I would be extra vigilant/cautious for any possible signs of weaknesses that may arise in the US or from China.”

Yes, while it is true that weakness in the US did materialize, the subsequent effect to the financial markets was instead a “melt-up” on the account of expectations of a “Goldilocks” outcome backed by a more extra loose money environment.

The Peso gained 7.69% in 2006 to Php 49.03 per US dollar supported at the margins by these massive portfolio investments into the Phisix, the Philippine debt instruments in both local and dollar denominated issues as shown in Figure 3 and other asset classes. Of course, remittances have been a factor, yet as we argued before, it is the unseen working at the margins that have shifted in favor of the Peso.

As evidence to this, remarkably, the spread of the 10-year Peso Philippine denominated Treasuries and the 10 year US dollar denominated Philippine Treasuries has narrowed to only 34.9 basis points as Friday (Jan 05), from 278.4 basis points at the end of 2005 (Dec 29^th).

The thinning of the spreads astonishingly reflects on the enormous money flows into Philippine assets mostly on the grounds of a global low risk premia and low volatility aside from the moving out of the risk spectrum in the stretch for yields mentality.

Of course, local analysts and experts will construe these as mostly reform based since they hardly comprehend the dynamics of the macro cycle which the local media would unsparingly carry up. To quote again Mr. Levitt and Mr. Dubner, ``Journalists need experts as badly as experts need journalists. Every day there are newspaper pages and television newscasts to be filled, an expert who can deliver a jarring piece of wisdom is always welcome. Working together, journalists and experts are the architects of much of conventional wisdom.”

Increased Portfolio Risks Plus Unfavorable Cost-Return Analysis

Figure 4: IMF: Sub-Saharan Africa: Trading Volumes

Arguing incessantly that today’s highly globalized financial landscape have been a manifestation of the above du jour thematic investing psych, figure 4 from IMF shows that money flows towards “exotic” themes, such as the Sub-Saharan region, have been dramatically expanding, as fund managers with a torrential “leap of faith” towards a protracted placidly rated risk environs; go for every “nook and cranny” with regards to any asset classes in the mission to seek above average returns.

Since I believe that today’s directional path of money flows are inexorably moored towards the fate of the US dollar [US dollar index -9.01% in 2006], we might as well consider the recent actions which may be as well be indicative of the directions of the Phisix and related Philippine assets.

I have argued in November 27 to December 1 (see Falling US Dollar Fuels Rising Oil Prices) outlook that aside from “demand-and-supply” factors the prices of oil or other commodities could be determined by the gyrations of the currencies where they are predominantly traded in, i.e. US dollar. For instance as oil prices recently swooned, media outlets took the quick-and-easy version of a warmer weather attributed to its actions. Nevertheless, oil’s decline came about as the US dollar massively rallied.

Which brings us to the unseen, could the inverse relationship of commodities and the US dollar signal a demand contraction and a rise in risk aversion similar to the case last May?

Figure 5: IMF US Housing Indicators

In the US, as shown in Figure 5 from IMF, Housing Stats continue to manifest steep deterioration. The OFHEO Price Index (blue line), Housing Starts (red line) and Total Existing sales (green line) appears to have “peaked out” (green blocked arrow) during the latter portion of 2005.

Warns the IMF (emphasis mine), ``The shift in recent years toward more risky mortgages may make segments of the mortgage credit markets more vulnerable to the deceleration in housing prices. Innovations in the origination of mortgages have allowed a widening range of borrowers to finance more expensive homes at a given income level. These include mortgages for subprime borrowers, mortgages with high degrees of leverage, and mortgages that feature sharply rising monthly payments, resulting in “payment shock” (Figure 10). More than half of mortgages originated in 2005 and 2006 are estimated to contain provisions that will eventually lead to a sharp rise in payments, even if the level of market interest rates does not change.

``Furthermore, as shorter-term interest rates have increased in recent years, rising payments on conventional adjustable rate mortgages will add to payment shock. Although the overall level of home equity remains high, a recent study suggested there may be significant pockets of home purchasers with low or negative equity; that is, mortgage debt in excess of the value of their homes. This may owe to several factors, including falling home prices in some regions, mortgages that initially allow for a buildup of debt over time, and the fact that some homeowners may have overpaid for their homes at the speculative height of the market, facilitated by overly liberal underwriting. Thus, homeowners with small or no equity cushions in their homes may find the payment shock difficult to manage.”

The good news is that so far the housing recession has been contained to within the industry premises. However, as the IMF warns, adjustments to subprime mortgages, which could have a significant impact and may translate to more tightening of belts by the US consumers, which has been the single most important engine of growth on the demand side for the global trade structure.

Figure 6 Stockcharts.com: Commodities take a Drubbing

Meanwhile, commodities appear to take a drubbing as shown in figure 6. We can observe that both oil and copper, commodities widely used in the economy, which have coincidentally peaked in May of 2006, as with the benchmark CRB, trailed the peak of the US Housing industry by about 3 quarters. Noticeably, a broad spectrum of commodities went into a sharp and accelerated decline last week.

Lest be accused of the logical fallacy of “Cum Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc” [With this, therefore because of this], we are curious to know if the inflection point seen above are correlated, since they broke down almost simultaneously? And if this could be reflective of the lagged effects of the above stated US housing recession? Or does this effectively represent a diffusion of the weakening of the US economy into the global economy?

Writing prior to the recent rally of the US dollar Chief Economist Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust last December to give us a clue, ``This weakening in copper prices corroborates the slowdown in the pace of U.S. manufacturing activity – it appears as though manufacturing output peaked in August 2006 – and the recession in housing. The decline in the dollar price of copper is all the more indicative of faltering goods-producing activity in the U.S. inasmuch it has occurred at the same time that the foreign exchange value of the dollar has been falling. All else the same, the dollar price of an internationally-traded generic commodity would be expected to rise as the foreign-exchange value of the dollar fell. The fact that the dollar price of copper has declined along with the fall in the dollar implies that the price of copper has declined in terms of other currencies, not just the dollar. This could suggest that manufacturing activity globally is slowing.”

So as Mr. Kasriel asserts a possible candidate could be a US-led global manufacturing activity slowdown, which is not a good news at all.

Figure 7: Stockcharts.com: Inverse Relationship between the US dollar and Emerging Markets

In addition, the IMF in its unusually cautious “Global Financial Stability” tone admonishes (emphasis mine)``A transition from the current state of low volatility to one in which volatility returns to historically more normal levels would likely not be straightforward. The task has been made more difficult by the rapid growth of some innovative instruments and the build-up of leverage in parts of the financial system. Carry trades have grown and the unwinding of those trades has potential to cause perturbations in markets. A “volatility shock”—perhaps caused by a downward shift in growth expectations or by renewed inflationary pressures—could precipitate portfolio adjustments and raise underlying volatility.”

A benign decline of the US economy is more likely to lead to an incremental decrease of the US dollar index. However, a greater-than-expected incidence of the housing industry and auto manufacturing recession, which may spread to the general economy or the sudden emergence of adverse developments, such as “volatility shocks”, unwinding of carry trades, hedge fund collapse, geopolitical uncertainties-as possible catalysts, emanating from elsewhere could lead to a rush into “safehaven” instruments as the US dollar.

Thus likely, as shown in Figure 7, the inverse correlation between the US dollar and emerging market equities have been quite strong over the past year. To wit, as the US dollar rallies emerging market equity indices tend to decline, while emerging market bourses rally when the US dollar index is on a downshift.

Figure 8: IMF: Correlation of Asset Classes with S & P 500 and Broader Market Volatility

Moreover, the IMF Chart in Figure 8 shows that various asset classes have been in a trend towards increased correlation. Increased correlation suggests that the objective of diversification, which is “to reduce risk by spreading portfolio holdings”, effectively diminishes.

To quote the IMF, ``If these positive correlations were to persist, or even to rise, in a sell-off, the traditional diversification benefits of investing in a wide variety of asset classes might be less than investors expect. The possibility that the correlations may persist underscores that investors may eventually demand higher risk premiums.”

What this implies is that going forward considering the hefty advances of the Global Equity Indices (“priced for perfection”), as well as the Phisix, considering the record low volatility, tight credit spreads, extreme optimism (newspaper cover), the diminution of seasonal strength, the non-confirmation of Dow Theory (see December 4 to 8 Dow Theory: The Emergence of a Divergence?), technically overbought conditions, mean reverting cyclicality and tendencies of the financial markets, rising correlation among diverse asset classes, conflicting messages by the bond and equity markets, the recent massive decline of broad based commodities, a rallying US dollar, an inverted yield curve, rising potentials for “volatility” shocks (while the Euro is down lately, the Yen is up- further increases in the Yen could unnerve the widely utilized Carry Trade) and uncertainties towards the ripple effect of the present slowdown in the US suggests of Increased Portfolio Risks. Of course, aside from our oft mentioned “Fat Tail” or Sigma risks.

This coupled with the rising cost of our capital over potentials returns on our invested capital makes the investing in the local UITs a less palatable proposition today. Sometime in the middle of 2007 could be a good entry point.

Prudent Investor’s Hits and Misses; Projections for 2007

``All man's troubles come from not knowing how to sit still in one room.” Blaise Pascal

While I remain bullish over the long term with the Phisix (10,000 Phisix...conservatively) as well as with the Peso and would not discount a potential mania to top out the present cycle, I am inclined to think that there could be a significant correction over the interim, possibly anywhere 10-25%; remember the Phisix is an illiquid market by global standards and illiquid markets translates to above par volatility (high beta), and that the Philippine markets could possibly stage a strong rebound during the latter half of the year.

All this will essentially depend on the developments in the US dollar [I know the Euro will surpass the US dollar as the most circulated currency] as a fundamental driver as well as, the US financial markets which has, in my view, been the focal point of cross-border capital flows, and the inspirational paradigm to the world equity markets during the last quarter of 2006.

I do not foresee present day decoupling by Asia vis-à-vis US (see November 20 to 24 Asia’s Soaring Markets: A Matter of Decoupling from the US?) yet, although in the long run this is a likely trend to emerge founded on an increasing degree of trade and economic linkages aside from efforts to regionalize and from growing interlinkages in the financial markets...barring the risks of a resurgent tide of protectionism.

The Phisix could possibly end the year on the negative or trade sideways where gains or losses would unlikely top 5%.

I have been right with gold having reached the $600-650 level (closed at $604.9) which I forecasted early this year see Jan 02 to 06 2006 (2005 Recap and Blemishes: 2006 Still For Mines and Oil) and forecasts the potential of gold to decouple soon with its industrial metal siblings. Gold’s latest decline has been attributed to diminishing “inflation” concerns and to a surging US dollar.

If the market savants such as the world’s Bond King Bill Gross are right to predict that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates from 5.25% to 4.25%, I can see gold topping the $700 at the close of 2007, alongside another key commodity, crude oil possibly in the $60 to $70 mark, this despite a worldwide slowdown on possibilities of greater than expected “peaking out” of maturing fields (for as long as the world does not enter into a depression-where all bets are off).

Meanwhile the US dollar index would possibly close lower for the year but at a much subdued loss than in 2006 possibly at 5% or less.

Because the PSE made substantial adjustments to the composition of the Phisix subsectors which took effect last January 2, 2006, I based the yearend returns on the first day from which the changes were adopted.

The mining sector which I predicted as the best performer for 2006 came in a very close second with gains of 65.2% to trail the Holdings at 66.67%. The other sectors came in the following order, Property 51.12%, Service 45.71%, All index 45.13% Banking 35.07% and CI 19.34%.

Unlike other mainstream analysts whose fungible views are dependent on the present activities of the market which they use to project into future, I remain steadfast in my projection that the juvenile mining sector has the potentials to draw even more investments, considering the “nationalization” efforts undertaken by several resource rich nations (Bolivia, Russia, Venezuela, Mongolia & etc..) which in essence reduces potential supplies on stream, and makes the country even more a compelling supply chain participant.

Of course, our projections are based on the sustenance of a “mining friendly” climate, that should be able to draw on foreign investments and generate more corporate stories and activities that would drive local investors into the mines.

And this should include the power and energy sector which has undergone years of intensive underinvestment, aside, from the much neglected agriculture based investment themes-arising from declining supplies of arable land due to growing desertification trends, a looming water crisis in various parts of the world, growing industrialization in emerging markets, demographic and urban migration trends as well as demand for agriculture products which used to be solely for food is now in competition as feedstock for alternative energy and most importantly, the growing consumption trends by rapidly developing emerging markets economy.

Furthermore, while many world markets have seen a boom in real estate, the Philippines has squarely lagged behind. Yes, I remain bullish too with the local real estate industry as well as the domestic (global) infrastructure theme, as both the rising peso aside from years of underinvestment as key potential drivers to these industries.

Another compelling investment theme would be the rapidly growing “sunshine” Business Process Outsourcing industry (BPOs), a beneficiary of today’s supply chaining trends in globalization. A global economic growth slowdown should benefit BPOs more as companies attempt to reduce costs and outsource more of their non-sensitive business processes. Also watch for companies that would benefit from various outsourcing/offshoring patterns, as well as beneficiaries from growing trends to integrate financial markets.

Finally, it is never good to discount that the Philippines sits on a wealth of potential high value tourism spots given its 7,100 islands, rich historical background and diverse culture. As Asia is more likely to prosper backed by the trends of growing intra-region linkages, tourism investments are likely to expand.

On Thailand's Financial Markets Bloodbath

One of the fundamental risks in today’s world is the rising tide of protectionism. As in the case of Thailand which prospered under more liberal settings in the past, the recent imposition of capital controls to limit foreign money movements and rein the Baht’s appreciation, I think is grounded on a faulty premise. Where money is not treated well, the natural reaction would be an exodus.

Mainstream economists whose analysis influence policymakers are wont to believe that rising currencies curb exports. While such is a textbook dogma, the reality is different. Rising currencies of many Asian countries for several years hasn’t curtailed exports, so as with many Latin American and European countries. What you have is a global phenomenon of rising currencies and rising volume of exports, the probable reasons of which I may write about soon. In short, policymakers have been barking at the wrong tree. Exchange rates are usually made by policymakers as scapegoats for their inefficiencies. This is the same premise adopted by US politicians in pressuring China to appreciate its yuan to appease some sectors of its society. As always, political grandstanding equals the law of unintended consequences.

It was an ASEAN contagion as a general response to Thailand’s fiat as of yesterday. The premise is that what occurred in Thailand could be a model for other Asian emerging markets. However, I think such worries are overrated. Maybe the markets, having climbed to a vast degree, are seeking for reasons to correct, which could be a sign of exhaustion.

P.S. Following the dramatic bloodbath, the Thai Government has made a ludicrous U-Turn, according to CNN

"The Thai government performed an abrupt U-turn on Tuesday after the stock market suffered its worst fall in 16 years as foreign investors pulled the plug in response to drastic measures to rein in the baht.

"Hours after the central bank rebuffed a plea from a stunned stock market chief to withdraw them, Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula announced equity investments would be excluded from the restrictions, starting Wednesday.

Well, that's what to expect from governments.

Phisix have been Driven by Mostly Macro Not by Micro Forces; Evolving Role of Financial Markets

``Accuracy of observation is the equivalent of accuracy of thinking." Wallace Stevens, American Poet, (1879-1955)

Correlation doesn’t necessarily translate to causation, but I hope those who adamantly insist that the activities in the Phisix is borne out of “micro” factors can explain the tight association among these key benchmarks; namely the Phisix, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages and the Morgan Stanley Emerging Free Index, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Stockcharts.com: Phisix’s Tight Correlations with DJIA and MSEMF

The chart over a timeframe spread of one year and 6 months shows of an almost lockstep movement by the PHISIX, the DJIA (behind) and the MSEMF (lower pane). The MSEMF is an index of emerging markets bourses.

The arrows above points of major inflection points, which has strangely occurred in simultaneous fashion. Observe too that even during periods of consolidation, the contours in general have been tightly similar.

Mainstream analysts with their elaborate presentations continually assert that the present progress in the Philippine financial markets have been due to domestic economic and political factors. While I do not deny that such variables could have abetted the current conditions, does this sufficiently explain such closely knit relations? Apparently not.

One may even recall that political tumults as the July 2003 Oakwood incident, the 2004 Presidential elections and the GARCI scandals have all failed to deter the rise of the Phisix. Oddly enough, it even found such events as springboard to its present state, a case of Wall Street’s favorite tenet “climbing a wall of worry” perhaps?

Well again all these do not explain such correlations. And when we are far from the true drivers of the market, our tendency is to misinterpret, which could lead us to fatal investing decisions.

For starters, we have to consider the framework of the Philippine Stock Market where the fluxes of foreign capital have had a significant contribution. In fact, they represent a majority, relative to total Peso volume turnover, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: PSE: Foreign Capital Makes Up the Bulk of Turnover

The above chart, with special thanks to JM Ian Salas of the PSE for the data and Wilson Chong for the Chart, shows of the foreign money share representation to the total turnover, which had been over 50% since 2002 on a regular board exchange basis and since 2003 on a total basis or inclusive of special block sales.

Figure 3: PSE: Net Foreign Inflows Has Driven the Phisix since 2003

Figure 3 is a representation of the net foreign transaction or the inflow or outflow of foreign funds. Please take note that foreign inflows have been in a growing trend since 2003 on a regular or board exchange basis. While on a total basis or inclusive of special block sales, the uptrend has been from 2004.

And if you think that this has been limited to the domestic arena, let me show you of Thailand’s SET framework, the more liberal among our neighboring bourses in terms of internal data disclosure.

In Thailand, LOCAL RETAIL investors have been the dominant force. However, foreign capital flows have likewise been significant but to a lesser degree. Let me elaborate.

Figure 4: SET: Transactions by Investor Type

Figure 4 shows of Thailand’s share distribution by investor type over a period of 10 years. I’d like you to note of the trend of foreign investor take-up has been growing (light blue bar) since 2003 at the expense of local retailers (dark blue bar).

Figure 5: SET: Average Daily Turnover

In Figure 5, one can take note of the growing intensity of foreign money into Thailand’s bourse as measured in volume. This means that the increase in daily turnover has been mostly due to a more substantial rate of change growth from foreign money flows into the SET.

Here are some important facts of note:

1. Thailand’s market cap is USD 127 billion at the end of 2005 compared to the Phisix’s at over USD 43 billion today.

2. Thailand’s population is about 65 million compared to around 85 million for the Philippines.

3. The Average daily turnover of is a whopping USD 409 million in 2005 against a measly the Philippines USD 30-60 million today!

4. Local RETAIL Investors constitute the majority of investors; although on a declining trend relative to market share, but has likewise increased in terms of nominal volume since 2003.

5. On the other hand, Foreign Money constitutes a significant growing minority!

6. According to IMF data, Thailand’s Stock market cap to GDP ratio is about 68% as compared 34% of the Philippines.

When economic analysis centering on comparisons about certain countries omit the financial market aspects, then it is not representative of a meaningful picture or analysis.

Why? Today’s global economy is much more dictated by the financial world than the actual exchange of widgets and services. Global Market Cap for the collective stock market is said to be at over USD 43 Trillion which is almost the same scale as today’s Global GDP.

Combined, the world capital markets broken down into sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, bank deposits and mortgage securities are at over an estimated 1.7 times the world economy!

Now relative to Thailand, the breadth, depth and sophistication of its financial markets signifies that their domestic capitalists had been successfully able to channel savings into the required investments to achieve their present state.

Figure 6: Bloomberg: Thailand’s SET (blue) and Phisix (green)

In other words, the Thai stockmarket has meaningfully contributed in bolstering its economy and elevated the financial and economic state of its citizenry to achieve its present prosperity. Such that, despite the recent political turmoil, the sizeable participation of local investors makes it less prone to the sways or volatilities in the global market as shown in Figure 6.

Moreover, Thailand’s conduciveness to the business environment or a market-based economy can be seen with its 18^th ranking in World Bank’s Doing Business, compared to the Philippines which ranked at 126^th and in Heritage.org’s index of economic freedom where Thailand ranks 71^st “mostly free” relative to the Philippine’s 98^th place “mostly unfree”.

The lesson here is that the financial markets contribute substantially to state of economic progress, especially in the present evolutionary structure of a global finance-based economy. This should effectively translate to having more of our citizenry participate in the development of our capital markets in order to achieve our desired prosperity. Markets and not politics make prosperity.

Going back to our initial topic of tight correlation, this [Thai-Phil example] likewise reveals that when a country’s bourse is mainly reliant on the activities of foreign capital rather than of domestic investors, its direction is subjected to the sentiment, volatilities and dynamics of global fund flows.

Investors who continue to immerse themselves into the illusion that the local factors have been the key determinants of the domestic market will be left holding the proverbial “empty bag” or would be caught “swimming naked” when, to paraphrase Mr. Buffett, “the tide goes out”.

Figure 7: Economagic: US FED Fund Rate and the S & P 500

No markets are essentially single-variable/dimension determined over the long term, although in one instance or another, a variable may outweigh all others given their influence to the collective investors.

One of the most crucial factors that I’ve been repeatedly arguing for as major drivers to our financial markets or of the worlds’ is of global liquidity.

When the US Federal Reserve fretted upon the shadows of a Japan-like Deflation bugaboo, following the technology bust in 2000, they undertook an aggressive massive campaign to flood the world’s monetary system with surplus money and credit. The Fed took down its interest rates to its lowest levels in about half a century, as shown in Figure 7. This essentially prompted investors to take upon massive leverage worldwide in different trading forms, such as the widely known CARRY Trade.

Notice that all the indices mentioned above found their bullish stimulus almost synchronically in 2003. It likewise appears that almost all variants of asset classes [bonds, collectibles, stocks, commodities and real estate] around the world have responded to the US Fed’s easing.

Yes, the FED did take steps to increase its interbank lending rates 18 times to 5.25%, from its trough in June 2003, but essentially in nominal figures it remains lower compared to the past.

One should not forget that the present monetary system is based on the US dollar standard and that policies encompassing the US dollar have greatly weighed on the performances of various asset classes, if not among economies.

Yet, another supportive role of today’s fiat money based asset economies has been the increasing importance of new financial instruments, such as structured finance and the various strains of derivatives, aside from the technological innovations in the areas of information and communications which have transformed and enabled real-time money flow platforms that has essentially facilitated global money flows using the click of a mouse.

Denying these seismic changes in today’s world is a recipe to obsolescence and subsequent loss of capital.

PNOC’s Debut Lures More Foreign Money; Rising Dow, Buoyant Peso Lifts Phisix

``Each believes easily what he fears and what he desires."-Jean de La Fontaine French Poet (1621-1695)

As of today, the bullish run of the Phisix has been substantially reflective of the performances of the global markets. As the US Dow Jones set new records (+1.12% week-on-week), the Phisix (+.88%) has knocked on the portals of its resistance highs and could go about setting new highs in the coming weeks.

This week’s huge inflows of foreign money (a startling P 12.25 billion!) have been mostly due to the very successful PNOC Exploration listing (+34.375%), an issue whose foreign take up I had gravely underestimated. PNOC’s fundamentals have been very impressive at least, but given the performances of its peers (yes, here I was guilty of extrapolating the past for the future), and the likelihood of the prospects of an interim “top”, I have been wary of the possibility of mistiming. Besides, short term gains are for those with especially high risks appetite!

Further, there have been sporadic chatters about the risks of a huge IPO listing siphoning liquidity out of the market. As I have been arguing about liquidity driven markets, the PNOC experience, which raised about P 16.2 billion from its listing, simply proved that there had been simply too much money out there chasing for returns, both in the domestic and the international sphere, as the Phisix continued its upward trek in contrast to some expectations of a liquidity drain.

Anyway, since successful investing in the market is mostly about opportunities management, there are even more propitious opportunities in the offing given the present secular phase of today’s domestic market.

As an aside, last week I pointed out that while local investors who appear to be on a selling mode, foreign money continued to pile on local assets, where I argued the latter would influence the former. It appears that such observation came true as the number of traded issues and number of trades combined with the general market breadth improved considerably to manifest of improved sentiments from local investors.

Figure 8: Bullish Peso supports the Phisix

Anyway, the continuing bullish case for the Phisix has largely been from the appreciating Peso which closed (+.61%) at 49.365 on Friday to break its 2002 high. Remember that we have been bullish on the Peso and made our case (see November 29 to December 3, 2004 edition The Philippine Peso’s Epiphany?) two years ago or even before mainstream analysts saw the obvious.

The Peso hasn’t been much of a factor to the Phisix until 2005, where as shown in Figure 8, peaks of the Phisix coincided with the peaks of the Peso or troughs of the USD/Peso.

The interim bearish factors for the Phisix today, which as shown above is highly dependent on foreign capital, are mostly due to exogenous risks as mentioned previously, the record low volatility and extremely complacent global investor sentiment and frothy market action, the technically overbought conditions, growing divergences of a Dow Industrials relative to the Transports, and record levels (1987 highs) of insider selling in the US markets.

Aside from of course, fundamental “fat tail” risks from a greater-than-expected global economic growth slowdown, rising tide of protectionism, an abrupt fall or a US dollar crisis, a nuclear war, global pandemic or perhaps a meltdown of global credit house of cards. For the meantime, any reversals could be more cyclically driven than structurally based.

Given the near closing of the season which has likewise underpinned today’s upbeat outlook here and abroad, I would be very cautious about positioning into the market, and surf the momentum instead.

Given too, the periodicity of the rally here and overseas, which is about nearly half a year already, as noted previously, we could be at the near end or at the maturity of the present cycle which heightens our risks profile while at the same time limiting our returns potentials.

Remember that no trend goes in a straight line and today’s bullish cycle could end sooner rather than later.

Yet of course, one cannot discount a speculative blow-off top as a culmination to the present cycle, yet as we surf the tide we need to tighten our stops, especially as the markets gets frothier.