Monday, August 02, 2004

August 2 Philippine Stock Market Review: And THE CARNAGE Continues

August 2 Philippine Stock Market Review: And THE CARNAGE Continues.

During the early trading session, PLDT opened higher in an obvious attempt to buoy the market and the composite index higher but was evidently thwarted by the intense flurry of wave after wave of foreign led selling on Meralco (-13.82%) that practically resulted to a broad market bloodletting. During the mid-session PLDT (-1.2%) succumbed to the tenacity of the bears and found itself mired in losses until the trading close.

I might have spoken so soon in my latest newsletter that based on the recent internal market developments, the market WOULD probably ASSUAGE OR EVEN REVERSE the hemorrhaging sentiment seen in the Lopez-owned energy companies Meralco and First Philippine Holdings (-6.06%) which resulted from Friday’s shocking adverse reports. Although I did mention that in the interim the probability of selling pressures would continue, the intensity of today’s butchery was unexpected and even more distressing than on Friday to require a revaluation of the market’s internals.

Yes, misery loves company and upon looking at the region’s bourses, ONLY THREE, India, SRI Lanka and Australia, of the Asia’s 15 indices are trading slightly higher with Thailand’s SET closed probably on holiday. The probable culprit of the dreary outlook~ crude oil prices hitting a high of $43.92 per barrel!

In the domestic front, ONLY GLOBE Telecoms (+.58%) managed to defy the overwhelming bearish outlook among the blue chips with seven of the 9 issues posting losses that dragged the Phisix lower by 1.28% or 20.23 points, the third biggest loser in the region after Korea and Taiwan. Aside from PLDT, SM Prime (-3.3%), Metrobank (-1.88%), Ayala Land (-1.78%), Ayala Corp down (-1.78%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (-1.19%), and San Miguel A (-.86%) were all in the red while San Miguel B was unchanged.

NET Foreign selling was a massive P 142.846 million or US$ 2.551 million on moderate to heavy peso volume turnover of P 712.037 million or US $12.715 million. Foreign share to trade outstanding was at 58.01%. The fiery liquidations were practically concentrated on MERALCO, PLDT and First Philippine Holdings, which represented substantial percentages to their output, 73.01%, 36.39%, 56.16%, respectively. Among the blue chips, aside from PLDT, SM Prime and Metrobank recorded modest to minor outflows while BPI, AC and Ayala Land reported minor inflows, this of course is aside from Globe Telecoms which posted heavy inflows.

Market sentiment was generally bearish with decliners upstaging advancers by 46 to 19 or a ratio of over 2 to 1 while in terms of industry sub-indices, except for the mining index all other indices were lower for the day. Number of traded issues was at the threshold 100 level.

Today’s activities were a COMPLETE turnaround from Friday’s foreign bullishness that capped on the declines. Although the selloffs were limited to THE MARKET LEADERS, particularly Meralco and PLDT, the broad market felt the heat of the ferocious liquidations and caved in to the intense bearish pressure resulting to the hefty declines of the composite index. While technically speaking the chart of the Phisix seems to be out of danger, the failed breakout and the considerable damage in the market internals are things to keep a close eye on. One day does not make a trend.


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