Wednesday, August 18, 2004

August 18 The Philippine Stock Market Review: The Exodus Continues

August 18 The Philippine Stock Market Review: The Exodus Continues

Foreign money once again continued to dump local equity assets as the Phisix fell for the second day by a hefty .67% or 10.46 points, as foreign equity portfolio outflows recorded P 132.747 million (US$2.307 million) or equivalent to 28.67% of accrued output. PLDT (-2.35%) posted the largest outflow accompanied by equally intensive outflows in the Property heavyweights SM Primeholdings (-3.44%) and Ayala Land (-1.88%) and in food conglomerate San Miguel B (-1.42%). Of the eight heavyweights only two scored gains, namely Bank of the Philippine Islands (+1.25%) and San Miguel A (+.87%) while the rest posted losses. Metrobank was unchanged.

In technical lingo yesterday’s downside triangle formation break fortified the correction mode of the market. Today, the 50-day moving average support level was taken out with an attempt to breach the major trendline support at 1,553. The current market moves are manifesting ominous sign of market exhaustion. Any further downside pressures that would break the major trend line support level would spell a possible near-term trend reversal. Again, all eyes on PLDT whom has led the market for over a year and a half.

Market’s mood was relatively somber with declining issues slightly ahead of the advancing issues by 34 to 26, although in a much improved state compared to yesterday. Industry indices were mixed with 3 decliners (Commercial-Industrial, Oil and the Property) against 3 advancers (Mining, Financials and ALL index). Foreign money sold more than they bought while today’s trading activities was slanted towards local support of the general market as well as the Phisix components.

Today’s darling has been the International Container Terminals who braved the tide of foreign selling and was the sole major acquisition by foreign interest amounting to about a third of its output. ICT broke out of its long symmetrical triangle consolidation yesterday and was up 9.45%

Asian markets are currently mixed with the Phisix registering the largest decline in the region. We see no fundamental impetus for the sudden turnaround of foreign investors on the domestic market, except for the aspects of correlation to Wall Street. New York’s key benchmarks are currently showing severe oversold positions and are likely to post substantial rallies in the coming sessions, although this may be limited. Hence, if correlation is the subject of the recent declines we may expect the Phisix to ease further from its current levels, unless of course the locals would be able to match the volume of foreign capital and be aggressive enough to stave off the bearish sentiment.

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