Saturday, July 26, 2008

Burgernomics: Where is the world’s most Expensive and Cheapest Big Mac? Peso one of the world’s cheapest.

The Economist magazine has used its premier product the Big Mac, which is served in McDonald’s 31,000 outlets in 119 countries, to gauge on a domestic currency’s purchasing power against the US dollar. These are applied to nations where McDonald's has existing branches.

So where is the cheapest and most expensive Big Mac?

Courtesy of the Economist

The most Expensive are found mainly in European countries, while the cheapest are in Asia.

According to the Economist, ``Many of the currencies in the Fed's major-currency index, including the euro, the British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar, are overvalued and trading higher than last year's burger benchmark. Only the Japanese yen could be considered a snip. The dollar still buys a lot of burger in the rest of Asia too. China's currency is among the most undervalued, but a little bit less so than a year ago.”

For a little technicality on how they arrived at this comparative, we will further excerpt the Economist (highlight mine),

``The Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), which says that exchange rates should move to make the price of a basket of goods the same in each country. Our basket contains just a single item, a Big Mac hamburger, but one that is sold around the world. The exchange rate that leaves a Big Mac costing the same in dollars everywhere is our fair-value yardstick…

``PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run. Prices vary with local costs, such as rents and wages, which are lower in poor countries, as well as with the price of ingredients that trade across borders. For this reason, PPP is a more reliable comparison for the currencies of economies with similar levels of income…

``If that judgment is right, the squalls stirred up by the credit crises have moved at least one currency—the world’s reserve money—closer to fair value. Curiously the crunch has not shaken faith in two currencies favoured by yield-hungry investors: the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. These two stand out as emerging-market currencies that trade well above their Big Mac PPPs. Both countries have high interest rates. Turkey’s central bank recently raised its benchmark rate to 16.75%; Brazil’s pushed its key rate up to 13% on July 23rd. These rates offer juicy returns for those willing to bear the risks. Those searching for a value meal should look elsewhere.”

Courtesy of the Economist

So where does the Philippines stand?

At 44.5 per US dollar, the Philippine Peso, as measured from the Big Mac Index above, shows of a notable discount of FORTY FIVE percent against the US dollar.

The Peso is one of the cheapest after Malaysia (-52%), Hong Kong (-52%), China (-49%), Thailand (-48%), Sri Lanka (-47%) and at par with Pakistan (-45%).

This means if we take heed of the Economist advice of “PPP measures show where currencies should end up in the long run”, the Peso and most of the currencies mentioned above are likely to appreciate significantly over the longer term (all things being equal).

Another aspect worth to consider in the Economist article is that currencies of high interest rates countries such as Brazil’s Real and Turkey’s Lira appear to remain unaffected by the credit crunch.

Translation: Global liquidity appears to remain abundant enough to lure global investors towards selective high yielding "high risk" currencies.

Yes, the risk aversion has increased, but apparently the chase for yields has NOT entirely vanished.

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