Friday, May 14, 2010

Nassim Taleb: Waking Up One Day To Perceptional Hyperinflation

Here is Bloomberg's recent interview of Black Swan author Nassim Taleb.

Great stuff from Mr. Taleb...




Some notes:

-If you look at governments they typically underestimate deficits
-No government wants solution to apply on themselves
-I think we are going to have, at some point, a failed auction that’s gonna cause severe worries...here in Greece in US, something that’s gonna contage...
-We don’t have enough buyers for treasury bonds so the government may have to print them, and you know can what can happen when you start printing money
-Nothing happens early on and then suddenly you wake up one day and you have something called hyperinflation without having inflation-perceptional hyperinflation.
-Worried about government debt and rising interest rates
-Perceptional hyperinflation is going to penalize real estate in real terms, stock market and companies
-The problem was debt, you don’t cure debt with debt.
-I am going to give what I call as negative advise-what investors should not be doing
-I don’t recommend...treasury bonds as a repository of value...go very short term
-Euro and the US dollar will have the same ills
-If you have perceptional hyperinflation you should have hard assets...a good collection of metals would work or agricultural land
-I’d recommend not thinking about the stock market...
-If you go to business school today they teach you the wrong stuff, so I suggest not to go to business schools
-Don’t take any class that has equations in it. Learn accounting, computer science but not what they teach you...it’s all bogus

No comments: