My earlier post about election runoffs and the impossibility theorem have led me to ponder more about counterfactuals or how elections would have resulted if we had a majority based way of selecting our leaders.
Taking a glimpse at the survey leading to the elections, we find that Presidential candidate Noynoy Aquino as practically having maintained the same share level in voter preference from November to May, as shown by the chart courtesy of Social Weather Survey
And it would be further interesting to note that there seems little change in the distribution even prior to the declaration of candidacy by the other contenders last November.
This from Pulse Asia,
``Compared to the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan survey, the support for Sen. Aquino III remains virtually unchanged. On the other hand, there is a significant improvement in voter preference for former President Estrada (8 percentage points, from 11% to 19%) and marginal increases in the support for Sen. Villar (+4 percentage points, from 19% to 23%) and Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilbert ‘Gibo” Teodoro (by 3 percentage points, from 2% to 5%)."
In short, the 2010 Presidential election THEME appears to have revolved around a pro-Aquino versus anti-Aquino camp. Unfortunately, the votes of the latter had been distributed among 8 contending parties. Therefore, the landslide victory by candidate Aquino.
While the elections did show the rankings of first preference of every voter, it doesn't reveal the second or third preferences needed to ascertain a mathematical estimate on the possible alternative outcome.
But the distribution presented in our original post and the discerned dynamics from the voting patterns (pro Aquino versus anti Aquino) seems to echo an outcome from Mr. Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.
Bottom line: under an election runoff or if the elections were reduced just to two participants, Mr. Aquino's victory isn't all that certain.
Taking a glimpse at the survey leading to the elections, we find that Presidential candidate Noynoy Aquino as practically having maintained the same share level in voter preference from November to May, as shown by the chart courtesy of Social Weather Survey
And it would be further interesting to note that there seems little change in the distribution even prior to the declaration of candidacy by the other contenders last November.This from Pulse Asia,
``Compared to the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan survey, the support for Sen. Aquino III remains virtually unchanged. On the other hand, there is a significant improvement in voter preference for former President Estrada (8 percentage points, from 11% to 19%) and marginal increases in the support for Sen. Villar (+4 percentage points, from 19% to 23%) and Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilbert ‘Gibo” Teodoro (by 3 percentage points, from 2% to 5%)."
In short, the 2010 Presidential election THEME appears to have revolved around a pro-Aquino versus anti-Aquino camp. Unfortunately, the votes of the latter had been distributed among 8 contending parties. Therefore, the landslide victory by candidate Aquino.
While the elections did show the rankings of first preference of every voter, it doesn't reveal the second or third preferences needed to ascertain a mathematical estimate on the possible alternative outcome.
But the distribution presented in our original post and the discerned dynamics from the voting patterns (pro Aquino versus anti Aquino) seems to echo an outcome from Mr. Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.
Bottom line: under an election runoff or if the elections were reduced just to two participants, Mr. Aquino's victory isn't all that certain.
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