Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Quote of the Day: Hubris has its Costs, the Decoupling that Never Was

The lesson from recent economic data and policy moves in Asia (MXAP) is this: Hubris still has its costs.

In recent years, Asia believed its own press a little too much. The way it steered around the financial crisis of 2008, the dizzying stock gains, the migration of bankers from New York to Hong Kong and the region’s mergers-and-acquisitions binge were all interpreted as immutable signs of Asia’s economic arrival.

Decoupling-from-the-West euphoria flooded emerging markets in general. The BRIC economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- thought their rapid growth rates would pick up the slack as America and Europe reeled. Debt markets in developing nations reveled in their new roles as sanctuaries.

Disappointing data and interest-rate cuts in Beijing, Hanoi and Seoul last week show the extent to which Asia got ahead of itself. Asia isn’t re-coupling; it never decoupled much in the first place. That leaves us with two stark realities for the second half of 2012: Emerging markets aren’t ready for prime time globally, and Asian policy makers need to get more aggressive about finding new avenues for growth.

That’s from Bloomberg’s Asian columnist William Pesek.

And this why it is equally dangerous, if not a folly, to believe that ASEAN markets and economies will decouple.

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