Thursday, December 16, 2004

Elliott Wave International's Robert Folsom: All the Success, Intelligence, Experience, and Street Smarts on Earth...

All the Success, Intelligence, Experience, and Street Smarts on Earth...
by Robert Folsom
Elliott Wave International
12/15/2004 6:31:56 PM

Tom Wolfe's Bonfire of the Vanities is the best treatment I've ever read of what it's like to be at the center of a media frenzy: People you cannot control seize control of who the world thinks you are. Your identity is extinguished.

This may be how Mr. Bernard Kerik feels after the past several days, not that I'm trying to solicit sympathy for the man. Nominated on Dec. 3 to be homeland security secretary, Kerik withdrew his name a week later, apparently because he employed a nanny "who may have been in the country illegally and whose taxes he had not paid."

Yet this was just the iceberg's proverbial tip. The press in New York (and elsewhere) has followed up with story after story of his scandalous behavior -- and if even a few of the allegations are true, he really is a rogue. With one mistress in his pocket and his wife pregnant, Kerik reportedly had an affair with Judith Regan, the most powerful book agent in the publishing business. The lady is known for a temperament and persona that could match Kerik's own toughness.

So, why the heck am I describing this vulgar political soap opera on a page devoted to financial topics?

Because it illustrates a basic truth about the human condition, one we would all prefer not to see in ourselves. We'd rather look at this story and chuckle over sordid details and think that that's all there is to it. But the question that begs to be asked is, How could such intelligent people behave so ... irrationally?

Bernard Kerik knew full well that he would face the FBI's ruthlessly thorough background check, never mind the media's scrutiny; yet he concluded that the allegations would not become public. As for Ms. Regan, one would like to assume that she would not take the kind of risk that could end up with her name in a banner headline on The Drudge Report.

In this case, arrogance led to the irrational choices. In financial markets, rational thinking is overcome by greed and fear. Either way -- all the success, intelligence, experience, and street smarts on earth do not immunize people from bouts of extraordinarily irrational behavior

No comments: