``Gold is a speculation. But it is a speculation on a certainty: the debasement of the currency.”-James Grant
For some rising gold prices has been gladly cheered upon. For the gold is “barbaric metal” camp, rising gold prices account for as an intense denial to the vulnerability of their interventionist doctrines.
For us, rising gold prices epitomizes a build up of monetary systemic stresses arising from an overdose of politicization of the US dollar- the world’s de facto substitute to the gold standard. This warrants more concern than either acclamation or denial.
The world has been operating on a monetary system that has been anchored on paper money since 1971 or 38 years ago, yet for the thousands of years of human civilization, paper money has unsuccessfully thrived as the sustained standard of global medium of exchange. This has been due to the cyclical or inherent self serving nature of the political leadership to profit from inflation or by taxing society in order to uphold, expand or preserve their political powers.
Even commodity money had not been spared from the inflation taxation. This has been evident even during the Roman Empire, as Joseph Peden wrote ``In Diocletian's time, in the year 301, he fixed the price at 50,000 denarii for one pound of gold. Ten years later it had risen to 120,000. In 324, 23 years after it was 50,000, it was now 300,000. In 337, the year of Constantine's death, a pound of gold brought 20,000,000 denarii.”
And the same dynamics holds true today.
Essentially, the politicized nature of money eventually leads to its demise.
Inflation Is Dead. Long Live Inflation!
Gold have been rising for many valid cited reasons such as an inflation hedge (see Figure 4), supply demand imbalances, the shifting nature of gold ownership (as investment instead of jewelry), or central bank buying or reduced sales [see Four Reasons Why ‘Fear’ In Gold Prices Is A Fallacy]
Figure 4: US Global Funds: India-IMF Deal: Tipping Point for Gold
Gold’s record price surge appears to have resurrected its innate monetary appeal.
Over the years, gold had earlier been reckoned as headed for oblivion, as the political authorities along with their banking agents, whom are their chief associates, as well as their academic disciples imbibed on the fantasy that “inflation as an elixir” have allowed them to finally “domesticate” and “tame” inflation with modern and sophisticated mathematical tools.
In essence, the supposed conquest of inflation became a mainstream credo which operated under the principle of the philosopher’s stone- or the alchemy of turning base metals into gold! Prosperity can, thus, simply be achieved by Free Lunch policies! And supporting such beliefs were literatures that sprouted to claim the death of inflation!
Unfortunately today, reality has begun to sink in. To add, such bubble psychology has also commenced to unravel over the imbalances built beneath the surface by overweening overconfidence. Hence, the ramifications from the previous sins have started to emerge and become manifest in the marketplace. All these are being reflected in terms of changes in price levels.
The Role Of Scarcity In The US Dollar’s Diminishing Luster
So why gold’s role as money being revived?
Because the very important fundamental attribute of money is in the process of being perverted.
The basic and most important attribute of money according to Mr. Ludwig von Mises is scarcity, ``Media of exchange are economic goods. They are scarce; there is a demand for them. There are on the market people who desire to acquire them and are ready to exchange goods and services against them. Media of exchange have value in exchange. People make sacrifices for their acquisition; they pay "prices" for them. The peculiarity of these prices lies merely in the fact that they cannot be expressed in terms of money. In reference to the vendible goods and services we speak of prices or of money prices. In reference to money we speak of its purchasing power with regard to various vendible goods.”
When money fails to dispense of its role, then the public begins to question its existence and look into alternatives. The ruckus to replace the US dollar by key emerging market central banks reflect on these symptoms.
So it is of no doubt to us that commodities (particularly precious metals) will likely benefit from the uncertainty interregnum as the world continues to deal with the burgeoning tensions from the US dollar system.
Figure 5: stockcharts.com: Commodities versus the US dollar Index
Said differently, for as long as society hasn’t resolved on the dilemma of, or found a substitute for, the prevailing money (US dollar) system, these commodities will exhibit their innate roles as potential candidates as money, for the basic reasons of scarcity and their historical role as money.
As Professor Gary North wrote, ``Individuals in the past voluntarily adopted gold and silver coins as the preferred commodities to facilitate economic exchange. They did not accept these two metals as the preferred monetary units because of their commitment to economic theory. They chose those metals because there are advantages offered by these metals that competing commodities do not possess to the same degree. The main advantage is continuity of value (price) over time. Gold and silver became currencies throughout the world because they possess certain physical characteristics that facilitate their adoption as money. The most important aspect of both gold and silver is that they must be mined. It is expensive to dig these metals out of the ground. Silver is primarily a byproduct of the mining of other metals: lead, copper, and zinc. Mining firms must bear the costs of extracting these metals from the earth. This limits the production of these metals. They are comparatively scarce minerals, and it is expensive to dig them out of the ground.” (bold highlights mine)
Ergo, the pricing levels will exhibit on the relationship of precious metals’ role as money.
Does India’s Recent Gold Buy Herald A Watershed Moment?
In addition, India’s recent surprise acquisition of 50% of IMF’s inventory of gold for sale establishes two important points:
One, emerging markets appear to be intrepidly exhibiting a snowballing desire to accumulate less US dollars reserves and also less US denominated securities and channel most of their spare reserves into hard assets. It’s basically a vote against the US dollar.
This reinforces our “commodity-as-insurance” view and the potential role of commodity as part of the future money. According to Professor Michael S. Rozeff, ``There are only two kinds of solutions: inflationary and non-inflationary. A British pound as good as gold is long gone. A U.S. dollar as good as gold is long gone, but the dollar has hung on for 37 years now. A yuan as good as gold does not exist. A basket of currencies as good as gold does not exist. The inflatable dollar and inflatable currencies are ruling the roost at present. India’s action and some of China’s actions signal that they are inching – really groping – their way back to hard assets and a non-inflationary solution.”
Second, India’s gold purchases could be indicative of a monumental redistribution process or of a convergence of wealth between developed economies and emerging economies.
This quote from the Financial Times echoes such sentiment, ``Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, said the acquisition reflected the power of an economy that laid claim to the fifth-largest global foreign reserves: “We have money to buy gold. We have enough foreign exchange reserves.”
``He contrasted India’s strength with weakness elsewhere: “Europe collapsed and North America collapsed.” (bold emphasis mine)
Hence, India’s purchase of IMF’s gold could be interpreted as a watershed moment or a tipping point as this could mark the decline or the twilight zone of the US dollar as the international currency reserve.
Also, we’ve been asked if Gold at present levels is a buy today. While we have been serendipitous enough to have accurately called for a gold breakout last August [see Gold As Our Seasonal Barometer], market timing isn’t our forte.
Seen from seasonality patterns, gold usually peaks on February and will be on a downhill until August.
But it isn’t clear if such pattern will hold.
This would likely depend on how global central banks and global investors will react to recent fresh unprecedented developments.
As we have said, markets have been acting significantly less to exhibit the conventional mode. Instead, markets have demonstrated its unorthodoxy due to its Frankenstein state-being highly dependent on government steroids.
Figure 6: US Global Funds: India-IMF Deal: Tipping Point for Gold
And as figure 6 suggests, any bandwagon effect from India’s purchases could inflame a stampede for Gold!
With emerging markets holding the bulk of global currency reserves, ``IMF data shows emerging and developing economies hold USD 4.2 trillion of the USD 6.8 trillion in total reserves. China has over USD 2 trillion, followed by Russia with more than USD 400 billion and Brazil and India with above USD 200 billion each” (moneycontrol.com), and aside from central banks of emerging markets being vastly underrepresented in gold reserves relative to the US or Europe, a mad dash for gold can’t be discounted.
And we are not speaking of central bank alone, Adrian Ash of BullionVault.com recently estimated the gold market, ``Estimated at 165,000 tonnes, the total stock of gold-above-ground is now worth some $5.8 trillion. Research by BullionVault puts that sum at no more than 6% of global investable wealth, down from well over 10% throughout the 1980s and peaking nearing 30% at the points of extreme investor stress in the late 1970s and early '30s.”
Conclusion and Recommendation
To close, gold’s recent record run appears to have dramatically signaled a seismic change in the perspective of the marketplace and of governments in terms of gold’s role as money.
As strains or pressures on the US dollar standard remains unsettled, such uncertainty is likely to underpin the dynamics behind gold’s rise.
Rising gold prices represents global monetary stress than simple localized “inflation”. Moreover, because monetary stress is a structural issue, then it won’t just be central banks underpinning gold’s ascent but likewise the investing public, which accounts for a bigger share of ammunition, in the context of wealth preservation.
Moreover, the accumulation of gold by emerging markets signal wealth convergence aside from the watershed decline of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Since gold’s dynamics has been evolving from jewelry to investment and or central bank reserve demand, it would be futile to short term timing markets. The best is to buy on dips and await gold’s full transition of its bullmarket trend into the mainstream.
On the interim, the politicization of the monetary and fiscal policies will likely exacerbate the US dollar predicament. And as political faux pas compounds, gold’s functional role of money will likely expand.
Nevertheless, the end of the gold bullmarket will entail the resolution of the US dollar’s foreign currency reserve predicament, which is unlikely to happen soon. That’s because domestic politics and geopolitical issues serve as principal hurdles.
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