Monday, July 03, 2017

The Beauty and Perils of Narratives (Reasoning from Fait Accompli/Ticker Tape)

Pedro and Juan went to the Jockey Club to attend the biggest stake race of the year.

After the event, the conversation ensued.

Pedro: Horse A was a very deserving winner having won this highly prestigious international thoroughbred race in a dominant fashion. Horse A took the lead by a head at the halfway mark and gradually widened this margin to a length at the far turn. At the finish line, Horse A was totally unleashed! The champion blew the field wide open to win by a stunning 6 lengths distance from the nearest competitor, the crowd favorite Horse C!

Pedro: Like a well-oiled machine, Jockey B and Horse A run the race in gracious symmetry. They seemed joined at the hip with hardly any signs of friction.  Having won in 3 of the 4 outings prior to this race, Jockey B has definitely mastered the horse.  The champ hasn’t fared well with the previous two other jockeys. 

Pedro: Additionally, Horse A just loves the turf. Most of its victories came from the same grassy surface stadiums.

Pedro: Besides, even prior to the race, the champ was in tiptop condition.  Just days before the race, it clocked in the best workout record among its peers on this track. Unfortunately, the betting public was not as convinced. The champion came in as the third favorite with 7 to 1 odds.

Juan: I am astounded by your gushing over the champion. While I share your view - and as a matter of fact - the winner won convincingly, but here is my question to you, knowing all these, why did you bet on the two other horses, and not this winner????

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