US Economy: Manufacturing and Technology as Sunshine Industries?

Perhaps enrollment trends could serve as an indicator or clue on how the US economy (and perhaps the world economy) will take shape.

According to the Wall Street Journal,

Harvard Business School's incoming class will have a substantially smaller percentage of finance professionals than in previous years. Instead, a higher number of students will have manufacturing and technology backgrounds.

According to preliminary figures from Harvard's admissions department, about 25% of the 919 students in the class of 2013 are from finance industries— including private equity, banking and venture capital—compared with 32% last year.

Harvard administrators say the change reflects a greater quantity of strong applicants from nonfinance industries. The number of applicants from the finance world decreased as recession woes eased, as well.

Students with manufacturing backgrounds make up 14% of the class of 2013, up from 9% the previous year. Technology rose three percentage points to 9%.

Professor Arnold Kling calls it the Patterns of Sustainable Specialization and Trade [PSST] or the process where markets continually work to discover on where consumer demands are or the new patterns of trade.

Harvard’s incoming MBA class shows manufacturing as having the greatest growth followed by technology.

Could this signal that the new patterns of trade will become more apparent in the US manufacturing and technology industries? Will these two industries signify as the sunshine industries? (hat tip Mark Perry)

OECD on Global Economy: Broad Recovery Ahead

The OECD says that the global economy is not only on a mend, but is likely transitioning into an expansionary phase.

From the OECD press (bold emphasis added)

``OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July 2009 show stronger signs of recovery in most of the OECD economies. Clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia. The signs from Brazil, where a trough is emerging, are also more encouraging than in last month’s assessment.




For us, this phase accounts for as the "benign side or sweet spot" of inflation.

To quote Hans Sennholz, ``The subtle instruments of inflation and credit expansion first lead to the "prosperity" side of the trade cycle."