Russia’s Putin Defense of Syria: Why the US is Against it and Why Putin Acted

Well the war against the ISIS has taken a dramatic twist. 

Russia’s Putin has joined the war by initially by conducting airstrikes against ISIS targets. But they are doing this independently from US and the latter’s allies. 

Russia has reportedly expanded air operations to cover other Syrian rebels which includes those supported by the US. 

The Chinese government reportedly will be sending warplanes in support of Russia’s campaign as Russia’s warplanes will be allowed access to Iraq’s air base. Finally, Iran and the Hezbollah have reportedly been preparing to launch ground troops on Syria.

In short, Russia and her allies have launched a coordinated campaign not only to flush out the ISIS but also to secure Syria’s Assad regime. 

And it’s not that Russia has been trying to get the goat of the US. Russia’s reportedly earlier asked for the “America and its allies to agree to coordinate their campaign against the terrorist group with Russia, Iran and the Syrian army, but according to Bloomberg, the Obama administration has so far resisted.”

Now why the US government is against Russia

From Daniel McAdam’s at the Lew Rockwell Blog offers an explanation: (bold mine)

The Obama Administration is not happy about this development.

The US has been bombing Syria for a year without permission from the Syrian government and without a UN Security Council resolution authorizing an attack on a sovereign nation. That means US strikes on Syrian soil are illegal according to international law. However the first US response to the Russian strikes against ISIS in Syria was to condemn the Russian government for not coordinating its strikes with the US.

Unsurprisingly, the US mainstream media once again rushed to carry water for the US administration, with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour pondering whether Russia answering the legitimate Syrian government’s request for assistance would open itself up to war crimes charges! In Amanpour’s world there is no crime in a year of bombing a sovereign state with not even a fig leaf UN resolution to back it up. The only crime is to resist the US empire. No wonder in a world of media austerity, Amanpour is a well-compensated regime propagandist.

Rather than welcoming Russian efforts against ISIS and al-Qaeda, the US claims that unless Russia also focuses on removing the Assad government from power its efforts are “doomed to failure.” The US claims to be concerned that the Russians are attacking the “moderate” Syrian rebels trained by the United States — but even US generals have admitted that group consists of a grand total of four or five individuals. So it’s hard to understand the sudden concern. Each new batch of “moderates” the US churns out seems to defect to al-Qaeda or ISIS within minutes of deployment in Syria.

What is interesting is that the US-led coalition dropping bombs on Syria for the past year has yet to even consider the mounting civilian body count from its attacks. Not a word from the US government about large numbers of civilians it has killed in Syria. Yet there is plenty of evidence that the civilian toll taken by American bombs is exceedingly high. The moment the Russians join the fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria, however, the US suddenly becomes obsessed with civilian deaths — even as no evidence has arisen aside from suspicious reports from opposition-friendly “human rights” organizations that any civilians have been killed in the first day of Russian strikes.

What “evidence” exists of civilian casualties in the Russian strikes comes from the war machine funded Institute for the Study of War (ISW), headed by Victoria Nuland‘s sister-in-law Kimberly Kagan. ISW’s Genevieve Casagrande — a former dolphin expert who quite frankly does not look like a seasoned foreign policy expert —  claimed to know that Russia’s airstrikes “did not hit ISIS militants and rather resulted in a large number of civilian casualties.” Based on what? Only the unquestioning mainstream media could tell us. But of course they do not.

The bottom line is this: the US is opposing Russia’s attacks on ISIS and al-Qaeda — two branches of the same tree that are a proven threat to the US homeland — because Russia is not also attacking the Assad government, which could never be a threat to the United States.

Who really is protecting us? Obama with his ongoing Assad obsession?

Danger ahead!

Meanwhile, conservative author Pat Buchanan says that Russia’s Putin has only been adroitly responding to the interventionist US foreign policy predicated on the latter's aversion to national self-determination.

From Lew Rockwell.com (bold mine)

So Vladimir Putin in his U.N. address summarized his indictment of a U.S. foreign policy that has produced a series of disasters in the Middle East that we did not need the Russian leader to describe for us.

Fourteen years after we invaded Afghanistan, Afghan troops are once again fighting Taliban forces for control of Kunduz. Only 10,000 U.S. troops still in that ravaged country prevent the Taliban’s triumphal return to power.

A dozen years after George W. Bush invaded Iraq, ISIS occupies its second city, Mosul, controls its largest province, Anbar, and holds Anbar’s capital, Ramadi, as Baghdad turns away from us — to Tehran.

The cost to Iraqis of their “liberation”? A hundred thousand dead, half a million widows and fatherless children, millions gone from the country and, still, unending war.

How has Libya fared since we “liberated” that land? A failed state, it is torn apart by a civil war between an Islamist “Libya Dawn” in Tripoli and a Tobruk regime backed by Egypt’s dictator.

Then there is Yemen. Since March, when Houthi rebels chased a Saudi sock puppet from power, Riyadh, backed by U.S. ordinance and intel, has been bombing that poorest of nations in the Arab world.

Five thousand are dead and 25,000 wounded since March. And as the 25 million Yemeni depend on imports for food, which have been largely cut off, what is happening is described by one U.N. official as a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

“Yemen after five months looks like Syria after five years,” said the international head of the Red Cross on his return.

On Monday, the wedding party of a Houthi fighter was struck by air-launched missiles with 130 guests dead. Did we help to produce that?

What does Putin see as the ideological root of these disasters?

“After the end of the Cold War, a single center of domination emerged in the world, and then those who found themselves at the top of the pyramid were tempted to think they were strong and exceptional, they knew better.”

Then, adopting policies “based on self-conceit and belief in one’s exceptionality and impunity,” this “single center of domination,” the United States, began to export “so-called democratic” revolutions.

How did it all turn out? Says Putin:

“An aggressive foreign interference has resulted in a brazen destruction of national institutions. … Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress, we got violence, poverty and social disaster.

Nobody cares a bit about human rights, including the right to life.”

Is Putin wrong in his depiction of what happened to the Middle East after we plunged in? Or does his summary of what American interventions have wrought echo the warnings made against them for years by American dissenters?

Putin concept of “state sovereignty” is this: “We are all different, and we should respect that. No one has to conform to a single development model that someone has once and for all recognized as the right one.”

The Soviet Union tried that way, said Putin, and failed. Now the Americans are trying the same thing, and they will reach the same end.

Unlike most U.N. speeches, Putin’s merits study. For he not only identifies the U.S. mindset that helped to produce the new world disorder, he identifies a primary cause of the emerging second Cold War.

To Putin, the West’s exploitation of its Cold War victory to move NATO onto Russia’s doorstep caused the visceral Russian recoil. The U.S.-backed coup in Ukraine that overthrew the elected pro-Russian government led straight to the violent reaction in the pro-Russian Donbas.

What Putin seems to be saying to us is this:

If America’s elites continue to assert their right to intervene in the internal affairs of nations, to make them conform to a U.S. ideal of what is a good society and legitimate government, then we are headed for endless conflict. And, one day, this will inevitably result in war, as more and more nations resist America’s moral imperialism.

Nations have a right to be themselves, Putin is saying.

They have the right to reflect in their institutions their own histories, beliefs, values and traditions, even if that results in what Americans regard as illiberal democracies or authoritarian capitalism or even Muslim theocracies.

There was a time, not so long ago, when Americans had no problem with this, when Americans accepted a diversity of regimes abroad. Indeed, a belief in nonintervention abroad was once the very cornerstone of American foreign policy.

Wednesday and Thursday, Putin’s forces in Syria bombed the camps of U.S.-backed rebels seeking to overthrow Assad. Putin is sending a signal: Russia is willing to ride the escalator up to a collision with the United States to prevent us and our Sunni Arab and Turkish allies from dumping over Assad, which could bring ISIS to power in Damascus.

Perhaps it is time to climb down off our ideological high horse and start respecting the vital interests of other sovereign nations, even as we protect and defend our own.

The Syrian war has already spawned a Syrian refugee crisis

Importantly, cross your fingers that these two major opposing alliances won’t cross each other's path, because this may be worse than a global stock market crash or economic/financial crisis, as the Syrian war may be the trigger to World War III. 

Ron Paul: Yemen Exploding: Is The Stage Set for the Big War?

I recently asked if the bombing by Saudi Arabian government on Yemen’s Houthi movement will have a ripple effect: 

Will this proxy war lead to a tit for tat with Iran? Will this foment an expanded theater of conflict between the US backed by her allies against the Russia-China alliance? (As side note: Russia and Iran recently signed a defense pact)

In his latest outlook, the great Ron Paul expands this view: (source: Ron Paul Institute/Lew Rockwell.com) [bold mine]

Rapid changes are occurring in Yemen. Ever since United States had to leave its military base there, other powers have been lining up to benefit from the chaos. It has been revealed that Saudi Arabia has commenced bombing targets in Yemen. Egypt has announced its support for the Saudi effort. I am quite confident that this support is in compliance with our instructions to our puppet leader now in charge in Egypt. The current president of Yemen, Hadi, a leader who took over after the Arab Spring revolution, has been removed from power. He is said to have escaped to Saudi Arabia, and those who are now in charge in Yemen will most likely kill him if he returns.

Yemen has been instrumental in the US effort to fight al-Qaeda in the region. Unsuccessfully, I might add. The Houthis who have deposed Hadi are said to get their support from Iran and are now likely the strongest political force in the country. But they will not have an easy time of it. Too much is at stake for the United States and Saudi Arabia. We don’t read much about the Saudi Air Force being involved in military conflict, but the seriousness of the situation has prompted them to do exactly that. There are also reports that 150,000 or more troops are massed near the borders of Yemen for a probable invasion. It is assumed that other Arab nations will be involved, along with Egypt. One report said that it appears the country is “sliding toward a civil war.” I would suggest that it’s past sliding toward the civil war, and, rather, is involved deeply in a civil war that is now spreading outside its own borders.

The neoconservatives, I am sure, will blame everything on Iran. And it’s likely Iran may have been involved in giving some type of support to the Shia that now are on the verge of taking over the country. But one must ask, “How does this compare to the support the United States has given to over 100 countries in recent years, with a major portion going to the Middle East?” There’s a big difference between a country becoming involved in a crisis next door and a country getting involved 6000 miles away.

It looks like the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, a military dictator who was deposed in the Arab Spring revolution, is now aligned with the Shia Houthis who are supported by Iran. This will not be tolerated by the United States, and we can expect the US to provide indirect military assistance to those who are prepared to invade Yemen and install a US friendly dictator.

Foreign forces’ bombs and occupation will serve to unify the citizens of Yemen despite their other differences. As a matter of fact, it’s been our presence in this country for more than a decade that has been an aggravating factor. The fact that al-Qaeda type rebel forces have done well in the various countries in recent years is because they gain support from the local people with the promise that the foreign invaders will be expelled. This certainly is true when it comes to the type of support that the people give, tacit or otherwise, to the very ruthless ISIS forces. It amazes me how these ragtag rebels can out-fight and outfox various countries whose forces are larger and better armed. The so-called rebels find that their promise to expel the invaders is a strong motivating factor to gain support for the military resistance. The catch-22 is that the more we or any other nation try to subdue a foreign country, the stronger the opposition becomes.

This new expansion of the war in Yemen is a bad sign. The situation could easily worsen, involve many countries, and last for a long time to come. The stage for the “Big War” may well be set and we will be hearing a lot more about Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula in the coming months. If this war gets out of hand, I would expect that the benefits of $45 per barrel of oil will soon end. There is no doubt in my mind that the American people — financially and for security reasons — would be better served if we just came home and avoided these nonsensical military interventions that are carried out in behalf of various special interests that control our foreign policy.

The proxy war map from the Zero Hedge

The Yemeni factions from Stratfor

Hot: Saudi Arabia Begins Bombing Operations on Yemen

Wow. A new front in the Middle East war has just opened. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has just begun bombing operations on Yemen targeted against Yemen 'rebels'.

From the New York Times: (bold mine)

Saudi Arabia announced on Wednesday night that it had begun military operations in Yemen, launching airstrikes in coordination with a coalition of 10 nations.

The strikes came as Yemen was hurtling closer to civil war after months of turmoil, as fighters and army units allied with the Houthi movement threatened to overrun the southern port of Aden, where the besieged president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has gone into hiding.

Yemen shares a long border with Saudi Arabia, a major American ally, and the Saudis had been reported to be massing forces on the Yemen frontier as Mr. Mansour’s last redoubt in Aden looked increasingly imperiled.

The rapid advances by the president’s opponents included the seizure of a military air base and an aerial assault on his home. There were unconfirmed reports that the president had fled the country by boat for Djibouti, the tiny Horn of Africa nation across the Gulf of Aden.

The region’s most impoverished country, Yemen has been a central theater of the American fight against Al Qaeda, and its possible collapse presents complex challenges to the Obama administration as it struggles to deal with instability and radical extremism in the Middle East.

Along with Syria, Iraq and Libya, Yemen is now the fourth state to veer toward political disintegration in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolts that first erupted four years ago.

By Wednesday morning, Houthi forces had seized Al Anad air base, which until recently had been used by American counterterrorism forces, about 35 miles from Mr. Hadi’s refuge in Aden, the country’s second-largest city.

If current developments represents “political disintegration in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolts that first erupted four years ago”, then how much more will a sustained below $50 oil add to the current strains?

How will current developments impact both the Middle East's domestic and regional politics?

Interestingly, US president Obama once hailed Yemen's government as a model for fighting extremism. Apparently the imperialist strategy garbed as the "war on terror" has backfired and collapsed.

Yet more interesting developments from the said news…

The Houthis, a minority religious group from northern Yemen, practice a variant of Shiite Islam and receive support from Iran.

More questions. Will this proxy war lead to a tit for tat with Iran? Will this foment an expanded theater of conflict between the US backed by her allies against the Russia-China alliance? (As side note: Russia and Iran recently signed a defense pact)

Aside from politics, how will an expanded war frontier and low oil prices impact the economies of Middle East nations? 

How will an expansion of regional political strains impact Philippine OFWs and remittances?

Will the endless printing of money and zero bound rates by global central banks defuse such tensions to continually send stocks perpetually higher?  Or will inflationism aggravate on the tensions?

Very interesting.

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Russia Threatens Denmark with Nukes, Putin Signs Pact with Georgia Breakaway Group, US-China Square off over Missiles at South Korea

Underneath those record setting stocks and frantic central bank rescues have been risks developing in the sphere of geopolitics

Below are excerpts of some news articles and opinion columns and their corresponding links.

1) Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters, March 22,2015)

Russia threatened to aim nuclear missiles at Danish warships if Denmark joins NATO's missile defense system, in comments Copenhagen called unacceptable and NATO said would not contribute to peace.

Denmark said in August it would contribute radar capacity on some of its warships to the missile shield, which the Western alliance says is designed to protect members from missile launches from countries like Iran.

Moscow opposes the system, arguing that it could reduce the effectiveness of its own nuclear arsenal, leading to a new Cold War-style arms race.

War drums beat louder.

2) Putin Signs Pact With Breakaway Georgian Region (Radio Free Europe, March 18, 2015)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a pact with a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Georgia, despite condemnation by Tbilisi and the West.

Putin and the de facto leader of South Ossetia, Leonid Tibilov, signed the "alliance and integration treaty" in the Kremlin on March 18. 

Part of the treaty gives Russia responsibility for ensuring the defense and security of South Ossetia, including guarding its borders.

Security and mliitary forces currently tasked with defending the region are to be incorporated into Russia's armed forces or Russia security bodies.

More brinkmanship geopolitics

3) U.S. Nuclear Warfighting Plan Could Wipe Out the Human Race (Executive Intelligence Review March 13, 2015)

The reality is that the United States is not only creating the “appearance” of preparing to fight and win a nuclear war, but it actually is preparing to fight and win a nuclear war, although the idea that the United States can do that against another nuclear power is a dangerous delusion. Gen. Maj. Andrei Burbin, chief of the Central Command Post of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), made this clear in an unusual March 1 on-air briefing on Russia’s RSN Radio. The message he delivered was that “utopian” military schemes for “limited nuclear war” or a “counterforce” destruction of Russia’s nuclear weapons are illusory: They will fail, and the result will be retaliation against the U.S. by Russia using the missiles of the SMF. (See “Hear These Russian Warnings: They Might Save Your Life,” EIR, March 6, 2015.)…

Indeed, the delusion that the U.S. could wage and win nuclear war against Russia could lead to the end of civilization itself.

Yikes!

4) Russia Sends Nuclear-Capable Bombers to Crimea (Daily Signal March 20, 2015)

As NATO and Russia simultaneously launch military exercises stretching from Eastern Europe into the Arctic, Russian defense officials said this week that supersonic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons will be deployed to Crimea.

According to the Russian news agency TASS, Tupolev TU-22M3 strategic bombers will be positioned in the former Ukrainian territory as part of a snap military exercise involving Russia’s Navy’s Northern Fleet, which has been put on full alert, and other ground and air units across Russia. The Russian military drills comprise 40,000 troops, more than 41 warships, 15 submarines and 110 aircraft and helicopters, according to RIA news agency.

The TU-22M3 is capable of carrying the Kh-22 anti-ship missile, which was designed by the Soviet Union to target U.S. warships and is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Russia’s military exercises began Monday and are scheduled to last until Saturday. The stated intent of the mobilization, according to Russian defense officials, is to evaluate Russia’s northern defenses and the capabilities of its Northern Fleet.

5) Russia Orders Surprise Test of Central Nuclear Base (Newsweek March 4, 2015)

The Russian armed forces’ strategic missile command (RVSN) have ordered a snap inspection of the state of the nuclear arsenal in one of the country’s central military bases near the city of Yoshkar-Ola.

The surprise test, announced today by RVSN, will assess the condition of the intercontinental ballistic and nuclear missile units, as well as test the readiness of the nuclear facilities near Yoshkar-Ola in hypothetical emergency situations.

“During the tests, specific attention will be paid to matters of the command’s preparedness to eliminate hazards in the event of an accident related to the nuclear weapons and also in the instance and it will test the emergency squad of the command,” Colonel Igor Yegorov, the RVSN spokesman, told press.

6) ‘Tanks? No thanks!’: Czechs unhappy about US military convoy crossing country (RT.com March 22)

Czech anti-war activists have launched the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ campaign to protest the procession of US Army hardware through the Eastern European country. They say it has been turned into a “provocative victory parade” near the Russian border.

The American military vehicles, which took part in NATO drills in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, plan to cross the territory of the Czech Republic between March 29 and April 1 on their way to a base in the German city of Vilseck.

The exercise, entitled the ‘Dragoon Ride,’ will involve over a hundred Stryker vehicles, which the US is expected to station in Europe, and will see the convoy stop in a new city every night. Last week, it was authorized by the Czech government, without any debate in the parliament, Pressenza news agency reported.

The US procession has been labeled “an unnecessary and dangerously provocative military maneuvers, which only increase international tension” on the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ page on Facebook.

7) Is Russia building a new supersonic aircraft? (news.com.au March 21)

ACCORDING to a Kremlin propaganda media outlet, Russia plans to be able to deploy its army anywhere in the world within seven hours. It’s a future that involves a fleet of huge heavy transport aircraft that will be capable of moving around 400 Armata tanks, with ammunition anywhere in the world.

According to the Military-Industrial Commission in Moscow, a new aircraft, named the PAK TA, will be capable of flying supersonic speeds (up to 1235km/h), can carry up to 200 tonnes and have a range of at least 7,000 kilometres. Or roughly the distance between Sydney and Hong Kong.

Russia is supposedly hopeful to build 80 of the new PAK TA cargo aircraft by 2024.

Woe to the average Russians whose resources will be rechanneled for the production of unproductive and destructive goods or instruments.

 

8) Russia's Vladimir Putin brandishes the nuclear option (CBC.ca March 17)

The Kremlin has hardly been secretive about its overall strategy. Two years ago it unveiled a new military doctrine of what it called asymmetrical warfare, in effect high-tech guerrilla fighting alongside unrelenting technological and propaganda offensives against smaller, less militarily able neighbours.

That so many in eastern Ukraine see themselves as victims of Kyiv and not of Moscow is testimony to the success of the propaganda offensive.

Along with the doctrine came a vast increase in Russia's military budget.

According to the World Bank, it stood at over four per cent of Russia's gross domestic product in 2014 and was due to climb by almost 25 per cent in 2015.

When it comes to its military, Russia far outspends its European neighbours and now even spends more than the U.S., at least when measured as a percentage of its GDP.

'No more illusions'

Putin has been equally open about his regime's goals.

After annexing Crimea in 2014, he delivered a triumphant speech saying the Kremlin reserved the right to intervene to protect and defend Russians wherever they lived.

Within weeks Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine had begun a military offensive, setting up Soviet-style local regimes with Soviet names — the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.

In the following months, according to Western intelligence, these rebels were heavily armed by Russia, which has also provided hundreds, if not thousands of troops.

The Putin doctrine simply thumbed its nose at two international agreements, the Helsinki accords of 1974 signed by Russia's predecessor state, the USSR, and the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, signed by Russia.

The first guaranteed the inviolability of all borders in Europe and the second specifically guaranteed Ukraine's borders and independence in return for handing over to Russia 1,900 Soviet-era nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.

Thanks in part to these Ukrainian weapons, Russia now has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, 8,400 warheads to the 7,500 controlled by the U.S.

While Putin unleashes psychological warfare, the Russian economy will suffer.

9) U.S. Squares Off With China Over North Korea Missile Defense (Bloomberg, March 22)

The U.S. and China are squaring off over deployment of an anti-missile system in South Korea, the latest source of tension between the world’s two biggest economies as they vie for influence in Asia.

The U.S. is considering placing a Thaad ballistic missile defense system in South Korea to counter improved North Korean weapon technology. A group of lawmakers from the ruling Saenuri party has also begun lobbying for South Korea to purchase the Lockheed Martin Corp. missile system directly. China fears the U.S. could use Thaad to target its missiles and has called on South Korea to reject deployment.

“How can we fight with a knife when North Korea is brandishing a gun?” Won Yoo Chul, a lawmaker who heads the ruling party’s policy-setting committee, said in a March 20 interview. “North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat is advancing by the day and China’s response over Thaad is excessive.”

The Thaad issue has left South Korean President Park Geun Hye caught between the U.S, which maintains more than 28,000 troops in the country to defend against North Korea, and China, its biggest trading partner and ally in efforts to resolve historical and territorial disputes with Japan. Mounting evidence that the Kim Jong Un regime has developed the ability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles is adding urgency to the debate.

More encirclement strategy by the US government that will provoke a response in China.

10) Indonesia's president says China has no legal claim to South China Sea: newspaper (Reuters, March 22)

Indonesian President Joko Widodo says China's claims to the majority of the South China Sea have "no legal foundation in international law," Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported.

The comments, in an interview published on Sunday ahead of visits to Japan and China this week, were the first time Widodo, who took office in October, has taken a position on the South China Sea dispute.

10) China Dominates the Scramble for the South China Sea (National Interest.org March 19)

Far from revisiting its assertive posturing in adjacent waters, China is seemingly determined to consolidate its position in the South China Sea at the expense of its smaller neighbors. The latest satellite imagery, released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, indicate extensive Chinese construction activities in highly contested areas, particularly the Spratly Islands, which have been actively claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Though Vietnam has occupied the greatest number of contested features in the Spratlys, China is the most capable, ambitious (and geographically distant) claimant in the area. Given the magnitude of the power asymmetry between Beijing and its Southeast Asian neighbors, China has the wherewithal to unilaterally dictate the tempo and trajectory of maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Despite being a relative late-comer, China has rapidly augmented its position, artificially transforming highly strategic features such as the Fiery Cross Reef, which has been enlarged to eleven times its original size.

The reef is a formidable military garrison, with up to two hundred Chinese troops stationed there. It is expected to host its own airstrip in the near future, a crucial prelude to what could become a de facto Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea. This would complement China’s ADIZ in the East China Sea, paving the way for China to dominate the skies above the entire first chain of islands in the western Pacific.

Beating the drums of nationalism to divert the public’s attention from deepening economic troubles?

11) U.S. Navy Urges Southeast Asian Patrols of South China Sea (Bloomberg, March 18)

The commander of the U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet called on Southeast Asian nations to form a combined maritime force to patrol areas of the South China Sea where territorial tensions flare with China.

Countries could streamline cooperation on maritime security while respecting sovereignty and coastal space, as in the case of counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, Vice Admiral Robert Thomas said Tuesday at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition in Malaysia.

The U.S. has reassured allies in the region it will back them against China’s assertions to about four-fifths of the sea. China has ratcheted up pressure on some Association of Southeast Asian Nations members, and has accelerated reclamation work on reefs in the waters criss-crossed by claims from Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia.

More business for the US military industrial complex at the expense of ASEAN's economies.

12) China's Military Can Beat The US In South China Sea And Diaoyu/Senkaku Island Conflicts: Poll (International Business Times, March 13)

Public confidence in China's military is higher than ever. According to a public opinion poll, an overwhelming majority of Chinese citizens think the People’s Liberation Army is capable of facing and beating the United States if it comes to that over various disputed islands and maritime territories.

According to a study by the Perth USAsia Center, a foreign policy think tank that focuses on the Indo-Pacific region, over 87 percent of those surveyed agreed that China’s military was already equipped to “retake” the Diaoyu Islands, a cluster of resource-rich islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkaku to the area's other claimants, the Japanese. Regarding potential military action in the South China Sea, where several Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei all dispute China’s territorial and maritime claims, the Chinese public still echo a sense of confidence, with 86 percent saying the PLA is capable of taking the area.

Incredible delusions. If there should be a war, then this will mean the end human civilization as we know of.

13) Islamic State Rises in Libya (FreeBeacon, March 20)

The Islamic State terrorist group is expanding its operations in Libya with high-profile attacks following the recent beheadings of 21 Christians, according to a State Department security report.

In Libya, Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIS or ISIL, formed out of existing al Qaeda-affiliated and Islamist extremist groups in early 2015. It is said to number between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters and has been exploiting the conflict between two Libyan groups fighting for control of the oil-rich North African state, Libya Dawn and Operation Dignity.

The Islamist and pro-al Qaeda Libya Dawn and the anti-Islamist Operation Dignity, headed by Lt Gen. Khalifa Haftar, have created rival parliaments and military forces and are said to receive foreign government support.

What happened to the supposed role by the US as 'policeman' of the world? Or has the ISIS--not only been a Frankenstein (a monster created by the US government)--but has really been an ally of the US? 

The more the global economy sinks, the greater the risk of an outbreak of societal upheaval via revolutions or war. Inflationism will entrench on such prospects.

Video: Retired US General Westley Clark: Our friends and allies funded ISIS to destroy Hezbollah

Interesting comments by a US retired four-star general and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Westley Clark on CNN who says that the the jihadist rebel group ISIS was "funded by friends and allies" of America "to fight Hezbollah", and whose recruits have been "zealots and religious fundamentalists", thereby creating a "Frankenstein".

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: US Aid to Ukraine Army Revealed; the Sinatra Doctrine, Drone War Math, and more

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See Quote of the Day: Wall Streeters are there to help themselves make money

Once again some updates on the geopolitical sphere.

1 The proxy battle for Ukraine: Hacked US Documents Said To Reveal Extent Of Undisclosed US "Lethal Aid" For Ukraine Army Zero Hedge November 25, 2014

2 Surgical or indiscriminate bombing? U.S. Drone Strike Math – 41 Terrorists Targeted, 1,147 People Killed Liberty Blitzkreig November 25, 2014

3 Has the ISIS momentum stalled or does the following mark an inflection point? ISIS On The Backfoot? Iraqi Troops Regain Control Of Two Towns In Eastern Iraq From Islamic State Inquisitur November 24, 2014

Also ISIS fails to take Iraq’s oil-rich Kirkuk Alrabiya.net November 26, 2014

4 Russia in isolation? Or has Putin been getting more allies? Hungarian turn towards Russia causing “dismay” in Poland, conservative former PM Buzek reportedly says Politics.hu November 24, 2014

5 Tit for Tat? ; Swedish Spyplane “caught” flying off Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast The Aviationist November 24, 2014

6 Russia’s Artic deployment; Putin: Russia’s Artic Command to Become Operational in December Sputniknews.com November 24, 2014

7 Will F-22 be enough to strike fear into China’s military? U.S. Air Force deploys F-22 stealth jets to Japan as a deterrence to North Korea and as a show of force to China The Aviationist November 25, 2014

8 More word war on SEA territorial disputes. China Blasts US Comments on Spratlys Project as 'Irresponsible' Defensenews.com November 24, 2014

9 Abenomics has been about the economic theory based on spend spend spend, so what better way to justify these than to raise scapegoat; These Are The High Tech Military Systems Japan Is Purchasing To Counter China Business Insider.com November 26, 2014

10 Putin’s psy war?; Putin Is Waging An 'Ambiguous' War And We've Got No Idea How To Handle It November 26, 2014 Business Insider.com

11 NATO commander itching for a showdown?; Nato commander warns Russia could control whole Black Sea November 26, 2014 Business Insider.com

12 Protectionism represents economic war: How sanctions against Russia are hitting UK businesses BBC.com November 27, 2014

13 Mainland China to unify Taiwan via socio-political means? Special Report - How China's shadowy agency is working to absorb Taiwan Reuters.com November 27, 2014

14 Russia and China’s Sinatra Doctrine? As the U.S. retreats, how far will Russia and China threaten Israel? November 27, 2014 Haaretz.com

How does Frank Sinatra become involved? Rachman notes that the Russian and Chinese exercises come as the Russians and communist Chinese are “pushing for a broader reordering of world affairs, based around the idea of ‘spheres of influence.’” They reckon that they should have what Rachman characterizes as “veto rights” about “what goes on in their immediate neighbourhoods.” Hence the Kremlin’s antsiness at a Ukraine allied with the Free World. Hence communist China’s declaration of an “air defense identification zone” in the East China Sea.

The Obama administration, Rachman notes, has set itself against the idea of spheres of influence….

Against all this America is rolling out what the Financial Times’ columnist likens to the “Sinatra doctrine.” That’s a phrase once used in 1989 by the spokesman for the foreign ministry of a dying Soviet Union. The spokesman, Gennadi Gerasimov, went on the ABC News program “Good Morning America” to declare, “We now have the Frank Sinatra doctrine. He has a song, ‘I Did It My Way.’ So every country decides on its own which road to take.”

15 Cementing the Russia-China alliance, yet more spend spend spend on unproductive killing machines: Russia ready to supply 'standard' Su-35s to China, says official November 25, 2014

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Iran Talks Extended, Defense Sec Hagel Fired, Neo-Nazi Risk? and more...

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-ADB Warns (Again) on Rising Risks!

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Some interesting geopolitical articles:

1 Small progress between US-Iran: Iran Nuclear Talks Extended 7 Months; $700 Million In Monthly Sanctions Lifted November 24, 2014 Zero Hedge

2 China as galvanizing force? : India-Pakistan Sparring Opens Door for China in South Asia Bloomberg.com November 25, 2014

3 NATO encirclement strategy: NATO Jets Surrounding Russia: Before And After November 24, 2014 Zero Hedge

4 Europe’s tinderbox: Mapping Recent "Incidents" Between Russia And NATO November 24, 2014 Zero Hedge

5 Testing ASEAN’s response: China Said to Turn Reef Into Airstrip in Disputed Water New York Times November 23, 2014

6 War is business; UK approved Israeli arms deals worth £7mn in lead-up to Gaza conflict RT.com November 24, 2014. It’s really more of a racket.

7 Russia seals pact with Georgia’s breakway region. Getting more allies to counter NATO?: Pact Tightens Russian Ties With Abkhazia New York Times November 24, 2014

8 Despite some aerial incursions by Russian jet, Finland to stay neutral: Finland joining NATO would alienate Russia – President Niinisto RT.com November 25, 2014

9 Neo Nazis are a threat?: Ukrainian neo-Nazism threatens to spread across Europe – Russian diplomat RT.com November 24, 2014

10 Indian government itching to have a stealth fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA); Can not keep waiting for stealth fighter, India tells Russia The Times of India November 25, 2014

11 The military oligarchy prevails as the risk of a world at war heightens: Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel Fired Mises Blog November 24, 2014;

Writes Ryan McMaken

Now it appears that the truly important players in US defense policy — the weapons manufacturers and financiers who benefit most from an "active" foreign policy — have gotten their way. Hagel, of course, knows that the United States is broke and relying largely on monetized debt to pay the bills. At the same time, it's his job to keep the military bureaucrats who lobby continuously for endless spending (i.e., the "generals") while also pleasing "private" contractors like Lockheed Martin who live fat and happy off the sweat of taxpayers.

Hagel was expected to be something of a budget "cutter," (the DC version of "cuts" which are slight reductions in spending growth) and it was he who presided over the DoD during the final days of the sequestration debate during which the military and its private sector allies howled over tiny reductions in military growth rates.  The "cuts" seemed politically necessary at the time since Hagel came into office during a transition period when there was not a clear global bogeyman for the US to use to justify unchecked government spending. Now, the generals and corporate lobbyists at Boeing, et al have breathed a sigh of relief as because the so-called Islamic State is the gift that keeps on giving and will allow the military-industrial complex to advocate for utterly unrestrained spending.

Of course, the taxpayers, who were once were fleeced to create and arm  ISIS at first, will now be charged to disarm it (or so the administration says).  

The landscape has greatly improved from the perspective of military spending, and Hagel can now be replaced with someone more adept at shoveling cash to powerful interest groups whom we will later be told we must thank for defending freedom.

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Thailand’s Hunger Games, ISIS Expansion, US 500th Drone Strike, Terror Not Excuse for Foreign Wars and more…

1 Hunger Games Thailand edition? : When Life Imitates 'The Hunger Games' in Thailand, the Atlantic November 21, 2014

2 Geopolitical blackmail continues: North Korea Conducts Ejection Test of Sub-Launched Missile Test indicates progress in submarine missile development Freebeacon.com November 21,2014

3 The nuclear race is ON: China's Nuclear Weapons Are Getting Bigger And More Destructive Business Insider November 20,2014

4 Hasn’t it been obvious? A Russia-China Military Alliance May Not Be As Far-Fetched As Many Think Business Insider November 21,2014 They are already part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which according to Wikipedia “is a Eurasian political, economic and military organization”

5 Like stocks, ISIS momentum keeps rollin’: ISIS Has An Important Iraqi City Surrounded Business Insider November 21, 2014

6 ISIS draws criticism from peer (ally?) Al Qaeda in Yemen rebukes ISIS CNN.com November 21, 2014 

7 If ISIS has international recruits, so does the Kurdish forces: Canadian veterans join Kurdish battle against ISIS RT.com November 22, 2014 

8 US government’s favorite assassin: America’s 500th Drone Strike Launched in Pakistan Six 'Suspects' Killed in Latest Attack Antiwar.com November 21, 2014 Question is who gets killed; militants or innocent bystanders labeled as militants? 

9 Oops, developing cracks on Western Sanctions against Russia? Serbia won’t join anti-Russian sanctions club despite EU pressure - Nikolic RT.com November 20, 2014 

Serbia is not planning to impose sanctions on Russia, said its President Tomislav Nikolic after meeting EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn. The latter said the EU expects Serbia to bring its policy in line with the European one if it seeks to enter the union.

Nikolic said that Serbia is not planning to introduce sanctions at the moment, though admitting the country is seeking EU membership which implies an obligation to pursue common policies, including foreign.

10 More beating of the war drums: Russia warns US against supplying ‘lethal defensive aid’ to Ukraine RT.com November 21, 2014

Moscow has warned Washington a potential policy shift from supplying Kiev with “non-lethal aid” to “defensive lethal weapons”, mulled as US Vice President visits Ukraine, would be a direct violation of all international agreements.

A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that reports of possible deliveries of American “defensive weapons” to Ukraine would be viewed by Russia as a “very serious signal.”

11 More testing of tolerance limits: NATO scrambles jets 400 times in 2014 as Russian air activity jumps Yahoo.com November 21, 2014

12 The slippery slope to totalitariansism: Terror Is Also Not a Reason or Argument for Foreign Wars Michael S. Rozeff Lew Rockwell Blog November 21,2014

Writes Michael Rozeff

But terror and terrorists cannot possibly justify such wars, and preventive wars at that. Terrorists are a problem that is unsettling, but it also has limited and sporadic sources, even if they can inflict great damage at times. The problem requires identification and location of terrorists. How can war, which is such a blunt instrument, an instrument of mass destruction, be justified against such a threat? How can the U.S. possibly use terrorist threats to justify the unseating and destroying of entire governments, the destroying of whole infrastructures, the throwing of countries and societies into massive turmoil, and the killing and wounding of innocent civilians in large numbers? How can the U.S. justify exacerbating religious and ethnic differences, ruining landmarks and turning countries into armed camps engaged in internecine warfare? There is absolutely no excuse for this. Terror, terrorism, terrorists and terror events provide absolutely no excuse for such huge human rights violations. 9/11 doesn’t justify this. Nothing can be brought forward that justifies it. There is zero moral justification for what America has done in the name of fighting terror.

Here at home, the federal government has militarized every force within all of its many agencies that do any kind of policing. Not only have local police forces become militarized, but so have every possible arm of the federal government. The Department of Homeland Security is but one umbrella for these many forces. By one count there are now more than 70 such militarized federal agencies. 

The government has used terror and terrorism as an excuse or pretext for militarizing itself and arming itself to the teeth. These forces stand ready to dominate Americans at every turn and create a nightmare police state in this country. Any excuse from a bomb threat to a hurricane can be used to mobilize one or more of these forces. One vindictive word or one phone call can unleash a number of SWAT teams against some innocent person or get them detained or get their names placed on a no-fly list or some other list.

Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Russian Bombers Threaten Guam, ISIS Success Story?, Japan’s War Hawks, the Ukraine Freedom Support Act and more…

1 It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s a UFO? Or has it been a Russian military experiment? Watch mystery explosion that lit up Russian night sky - but nobody knows what caused it Mirror.co.uk November 19, 2014

2 Like stocks, ISIS bullish momentum keeps going: Report: ISIS Takes Control of a Libyan City Time.com November 19, 2014

3 Like stocks, could the bandwagon effect be the secret formula behind the ISIS successful streak? : Why ISIS is spreading across Muslim world CNN.com November 19, 2014

4 Potential peace between US-Iran? : 5 DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT BY NOV. 24 DEADLINE FOR IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS Wall Street Journal November 19, 2014

5 Doubling down on policy errors: Abenomics PLUS brinkmanship politics;

a) Japan’s War Hawks And Imperial Apologists Are Antagonizing Everyone; Japan's war hawks and imperial apologists are alienating the country’s allies and making a confrontation with its rivals more likely. Foreign Policy in Focus Business Insider November 19, 2014

b) Japan's Military Is Revving Up To Meet China's Growing Regional Ambitions Business Insider November 19, 2014

For a long time, Japan's military force was an exercise in contradiction. The country has ranked among the world's top military spenders, at almost $50 billion in 2013 — despite a constitution that explicitly forbids war (and even the maintenance of "land, sea, and air forces").

But in July, the cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a reinterpretation of the pacifist clause called Article 9.

Without changing the constitution's wording, Abe made clear that Japan intended to step up its military prerogative in the region, allowing it to come to the aid of an attacked ally, for instance.

The country spends the equivalent of 1% of its GDP on defense, a figure that could grow after a decade of flat-lining; last year Abe's cabinet approved a five-year spending plan on a laundry list of military hardware: Three surveillance drones, stealth aircraft, 52 amphibious troop carriers, 28 next-generation fighter planes (the F-35) and 17 Osprey aircraft units.

The total expenditure from the plan is estimated to reach $232 billion to $240 billion.

Poor Japanese taxpayers, yen holders and uniformed pawns. If a regional war materializes, poor Asians. :(

6 Soliciting for money the geopolitical way: North Korea Is Making New Threats Aimed At The US Business Insider November 19, 2014

7 Reading current performance into the future? Why China won't be Asia's dominant power CNBC.com November 19, 2014

China may be Asia's economic powerhouse but it won't become the region's dominant power, according to a new report.

"In examining the factors that go towards the development of Chinese national power-and its ability to use it to achieve national objectives-predictions about a Chinese superpower with the ability to dominate Asia would be premature, if not improbable," said Paul Dibb and John Lee, authors of the report published by Australian think tank Kokoda Foundation.

The argument that China is already Asia's pre-eminent power based on its growing economic and military capacities is weak, the authors say. They expect the limitations of China's economic might, a lack of close bilateral relationships and weak military capability to keep the country from becoming an advanced political-economy that wields influence in the region anytime soon.

How about financing? After all, military might depends on resources.

8 More arms flexing by Putin: Russian Bombers Threaten Guam Four Tu-95 Bears circumnavigate Pacific island, site of major U.S. base Freebeacon.com November 19, 2014

9 During the latest US inspired revolt in Ukraine, who took the Ukraine government’s gold? Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault" Zero Hedge November 18, 2014

10 Russia’s Putin attempts to defuse strains with the US; Putin: Mutual respect, non-interference will improve relations with US RT.com November 19, 2014 (italics original)

Putin said that Russia and the US share responsibility for ensuring safety and stability around the globe, and reiterated that Moscow was willing to work with the US following strained relations between the two countries.

Underlining the importance of the two countries’ roles around the world, Putin said, “Russia and the US have a particular responsibility to support safety and stability in the world and to counter global challenges and threats,” according to a transcript of his remarks reported by RIA Novosti.

11 With neocons back in power, so has the risk of World War III been raised. An evolving legal tit for tat by US-Russia on Ukraine that could send both parties to war.

a) Michael Rozeff Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 Lew Rockwell Blog November 19, 2014

Writes Mr. Rozeff (bold mine)

This proposed act is here. Its current co-sponsors are here. Among other provisions that sanction Russia, this Act commits America to reestablish the territorial integrity of Ukraine by providing advanced weapons to Ukraine’s government. This sets America against Russia, which supports Crimea as a Russian federal district. Russia also respects the eastern Ukraine Donbass republics whereas the U.S. does not. 

The U.S. already has committed America to Ukraine in substantial ways. 

A few days ago, President Poroshenko of Ukraine said 

“We are prepared for a scenario of total war… We don’t want war, we want peace and we are fighting for European values. But Russia does not respect any agreement.” 

The proposed legislation deepens the American commitment to Ukraine. It places America a significant step closer to direct confrontation with Russia. It places advanced weapons in the hands of a government that has attacked its own people and whose current leader is more than willing to conduct a “total war”. He sees the earlier fighting in Donbass as a prelude and warmup. He tells us that he has in mind a much deeper and more destructive application of force. The bill before Congress proposes to support him.

b) Michael Rozeff U.S. Is Creating A New Enemy: Russia Lew Rockwell Blog November 19, 2014

The Russian response, writes Mr. Rozeff (bold mine)

Russia will soon publish a revamped military doctrine. Rumor has it that the U.S. and NATO will be designated as threats or adversaries or enemies. This speculation is bolstered by the statements of a senior Russian Defense Ministry General.

Even without an official document having yet been published, we can say now that the U.S. and NATO policies, especially as they have transpired over Ukraine, have caused this hardening of the Russian position. The U.S. is creating a new enemy: Russia. This is purposeful. Only a big enemy like Russia can get Americans to accept the costs of the American military levied upon them. Only a big enemy like Russia can be used to justify a big military establishment. The war on terror no longer provides enough of a justification for a people tired of such losing propositions.

Although Obama conceives that he is in the right over Ukraine and Russia in the wrong, and although he conceives of sanctions as justifiable and measured, he has still nonetheless made Russia into an enemy. Russia is responding in kind. Obama’s sanctions came along with strong NATO rhetoric and a history of broken promises or betrayed understandings about the expansion of NATO. What Obama has done didn’t occur in a vacuum. The anti-Russian policy stance goes back to the end of the Cold War. If Obama wanted a friendly or cooperative Russia, he certainly didn’t achieve it.

13 Chart of the day: from Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative-Center for Strategic and International Studies AMTI.CSIS.org