3Q 7.1% GDP? Just Where Have All The Jobs Been?????????

You see, GDP has been growing so much for it to engender a monumental paradox—the rejection of the G-R-O-W-T-H story of the previous administration by 16 million people. 

So, they elected a supposed anti-establishment president who has been popularly expected to deliver superhero results via short-term actions predicated on violence and repression.

But because the establishment benefits from the G-R-O-W-T-H story (via mainly access to credit), this remains the embedded theme.

Worst, we have been made to believe in statistically constructed data, even if it departs from on-the-ground events.

Here is a simple question: With all the fantastic growth numbers, just where have the jobs been??????

 

It is said that when numbers are tortured enough, they will confess to anything.

In order to project higher growth numbers, Monster.com even revised its employment index last June.

So instead of negative, growth numbers during the given (2Q) period became positive. Additionally, because they revised the current numbers, the older set had been truncated. Here is Monster.com’s September revised data.

Nevertheless, even when Monster’s numbers had been tortured enough, the confession just didn’t happen.

First, Monster’s online job numbers grew by 4.08% (that’s nominal). Understand that 3Q NGDP was 9.3% (real GDP 7.1%). So from Monster’s data perspective real jobs growth at 1.98% (adjusted for government’s 2.1% deflator), jobs severely underperformed GDP by less than half the latter’s growth rate—yes that’s 7.1 % versus 2%! That’s an ocean of a difference!

Second, despite the massaging of data, 2016 improvements were hardly substantial when compared to 2015. Yes, 2016’s slightly better than online job performance hardly even reached the diminished highs of 1H 2015.  Even with adjusted numbers, the base can be used to infer the relationship between old data and the new data.

And from here it is evident that the 2Q improvement was, unfortunately not sustained, as 3Q growth rates diminished or momentum declined (10% July, 4.26% August and NEGATIVE 2.04% September)

In short, with all so much statistical growth just where have the JOBS been??????????????????

Monster’s performance can’t be said as isolated.

That’s because another major (biggest) online job provider has resonated with Monster’s performance.

 

My own weekly Thursday 12 pm tabulation of Jobstreet’s online posting has shown an even worse performance

Online posting growth has hardly recovered, year on year they have been NEGATIVE.

Again just where have the jobs been?

Has job recruitment shifted back to the old ways (traditional media)? Or have hirings been direct? How effective has the latter two been?

The simple economic logic is that lackluster job postings have signified a symptom of inadequate investments or investments that had been made that were less labor intensive.

Either way, this is just one of the major indicators that flagrantly contradict the G-R-O-W-T-H story.

Next. Government Revenues/Fiscal Balance.

Deepening of Information Age: More Proof of Structural Changes in Job Markets

With the deepening of the information age, jobs will be characterized by increasing specialization, as said in many occasions in this post, such as here here and here

Here is an anecdotal proof provided by a large US manpower agency.

From the Wall Street Journal Blog (bold highlights mine)

Joerres said the global skills shortage applied particularly to technical areas, like specialized trades, but also sales staff. “There is still unemployment, but companies are having a difficult time finding the people they need to fill their positions. As the world is becoming more technical, the sales staff are having to become more technical, too,” Joerres said.

The shortage also applied to laborers, especially in developing markets. “You cannot just throw people at production to get more output,” Joerres said. “With the use of (computer numerical control, or CNC) machines, for example, it is more difficult to find the right people.”

ManpowerGroup’s sixth annual talent shortage survey, to be published Thursday, will show that persistent talent shortages across many geographies and industry sectors are frustrating employers who struggle to find qualified talent amid an oversupply of available workers.

And this has been a worldwide phenomenon. From the same article (bold highlights mine)

Although European countries aren’t yet feeling such an acute impact of talent shortages, the U.S. has seen a considerable uptick in the number of employers who can’t find the talent they need, Joerres said.

India now has the second-highest problem with skilled labor shortages. “The number of companies in India reporting difficulty filling vacancies is second only to Japan,” Joerres said.

“India is a big place with lots of people but there’s a shortage of assurance engineers, people who can read blueprints, designers and (computer-aided design, or CAD) designers.”

Manpower, based in Milwaukee, is looking to expand its operations in emerging markets that make up around 15% of its sales, which reached $5.07 billion in the first quarter of 2011.

The more the specialization, the more aggregate based statistics will become flawed and unreliable.

So when politicians and their ‘expert’ apologists speak about solving unemployment with use of aggregates, expect that these approaches to fall short because they are mostly likely addressing the wrong (industrial age based) issues.