Sunday, April 26, 2015

Phisix 8,000: Record Stocks as Political Circus, Where Will Growth Come From?

Continued slavish reliance on ratings is puzzling. While individual investors and less sophisticated institutions may be entitled to some protection, it is not clear why large, sophisticated institutions and highly paid fund managers should rely primarily on ratings for investment decisions. Given their fiduciary responsibilities, it is unclear why they should not be accountable for any lack of independent assessment of investments. The methodology and meaning of ratings continues to be misunderstood. While egregious errors may have been made, ratings offer a view only of the risk of non-performance over the life of the security. Ratings are only valid at a point in time, not encompassing migration over the term of the security that may affect the value of investments. Ratings were never intended to provide a basis for pricing risk—Satyajit Das, author

In this Issue

Phisix 8,000: Record Stocks as Political Circus, Where Will Growth Come From?
-Bolder, Intense and More Desperate Gaming of the Index
-The Phisix as Part of the Political Circus
-Government’s Latest 8 Economic Statistics: Where Will G-R-O-W-T-H Come From?
1) Retail price index
2) Wholesale Price Index
3) Producers Price Index
4) Prices of Select Construction Retail Materials
5) Prices of Select Construction Wholesale Materials
6) Industrial Production Output
7) February Exports
8) January Imports

Phisix 8,000: Record Stocks as Political Circus, Where Will Growth Come From?

The massaging of the index has not just become a regular phenomenon but seemingly increasingly bolder, intense and more desperate.

Bolder, Intense and More Desperate Gaming of the Index



“Marking the close” has almost entirely characterized the Phisix performance of last week as shown in the above charts.

I plotted below not only the major “marking the close” trading sessions but also the price differentials between the pre-run off prices (red font) and prices during the run-off phase in order to exhibit the degree of the unscrupulous activities.



Last Monday, April 20th (lower left window) was a razzmatazz. 

From the opening until the last 45 minutes of the session, the local benchmark steadily headed south. But profit taking has been branded as taboo by index managers, so by 2:50 p.m., when the domestic benchmark hit a low of a stunning 2.13% (!), the index managers went to work. They went into their frequent tactical pumping operations which I call the ‘afternoon delight’. The asset pumping activities culminated with a massive marking close.

So what seemed headed for a brutal selloff had been thwarted by index managers!

The table above exhibits the intensity of such actions. 

The day’s afternoon-delight pump only trimmed .43% from the lows. However, “marking the close” operations virtually erased .68% of the decline or equivalent to 40% of the 1.7% losses during the last minute! How amazing!

Another major marking the close session occurred on April 22nd. The Phisix was down by .52% through the session’s end, but 66% of that loss had been obliterated by egregious last minute pumping!

Friday April 24th posted another incredible schtick by index managers. The Phisix was up by only .35% during the pre-runoff but closed .7% for the day.

In short, “marking the close” essentially doubled (102%) the gains for the day! 

And stunningly, for just the three sessions indicated above, an accrued 108.32 points or an equivalent 1.36% based on Friday’s April 17th close contributed to the remarkable padding of the index from last minute pumping! 

In other words, a significant chunk of the positive changes in the Phisix emanated from market rigging! And for the establishment, this has been peddled as C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E!

Shocking!

The Phisix ended the week essentially unchanged.

And here’s more.

There seems to be a go-to-stock for the grand scheme of market manipulations. Said differently, the market caballers seem to have zeroed in or has come to rely on one particular heavyweight to do much of the index lifting.


That stock has been no other than the largest market cap in the PSE, SM Investments.

In four of the five sessions, SM had been pumped by the index managers (left window). Apparently, despite all the pumping SM lost -.11% for the week. This demonstrates pressures from profit takers on the issue which index managers labored to offset.

SM’s trading activities last Monday April 20th was a humdinger. At the pre-runoff price at 904 (middle pane), SM closed at 930 or just 1 peso off from Apr17 Friday’s close of 931! In perspective of percentages, SM was down by an incredible 2.9% but marking the close eviscerated 96.2% of the stock’s losses. Absolutely stunning!

Friday April 24th posted the same market rigging session for SM but at a lesser degree. Prior to the last minute or the runoff phase, SM was up by only 2 pesos or .2% from Thursday’s close of 913 per share. However, the last minute pump delivered a whopping EIGHTY EIGHT percent of the day’s 1.86% gains!

And because SM has a market weight of nearly 10% (9.77% as of Friday) of the Phisix basket, Friday’s pump doubled the Phisix gains for the day! The pump also neutralized the deficit incurred during the first three days of the week!

(all charts courtesy of colfinancial)

The Phisix as Part of the Political Circus

THIS flagrant manipulation of the index can be tied to the Philippine President’s desire to see Phisix 10,000 by 2016. 

As recent record Phisix has been projected, this will be limned as “confidence” on the administration’s economic policies therefore should translate to political capital going into the 2016 presidential elections.

Record Phisix will then help boost chances for the president’s anointed candidate to win the elections. This means Phisix 10,000 will play part in the political public relations (PR) campaign process, thereby deepening the politicization of the stock market.

And a victory by the administration’s candidate will possibly extend the incumbent president’s influence, as well as, his political and economic interests through the next administration. 

The second complimentary factor is that Phisix 10,000 would serve as a fanciful claim to the legacy of having delivered economic utopia. That’s if the domestic economy does not falter under his regime. 

Yet because credit fueled booms has always been about short term gains followed by reversals overtime, such politicking will extrapolate to credit grabbing of present gains and the eventual passing the blame of a prospective downturn on the economy on the others. This should exhibit the nature of the zero sum and short term orientation inherent to politics.

Of course, even if the economy tumbles under his watch, such will be blamed on external forces.

Another possible supplement to the motivations of sustained market rigging would be to benefit the politically connected elites. Liquidity of the stock market increases with a boom. While liquidity will differ from stock to stock or will be an equity specific issue, stocks on a winning streak will be most likely be the major beneficiaries.

And with the increased traits of moneyness, these firms would be able to easily raise money capital from the public via various security offerings/issuances such as secondary equity offerings, equity placements, IPOs, bonds and or hybrids offerings, at subsidized rates or valuations. Thus, firms that benefit from invisible transfers of resources, and of risks, fostered by financial repression (zero bound rates) and channeled through record stocks will likely promote the status quo and may even be participants in the propping up of the index.

But there is no such thing as a free lunch. This means that the gaming the markets will have natural obstacles. Such limitation can be summed in a word: scarcity.   

If such activities signify the use of depositor’s money, then the limit will derive from continued access to such funds, as well as, the profits from “marking the close” arbitrages.

The problem with the latter has been that much of the position being accumulated has been from extremely high valuation levels. Remember, “marking the close” signify as the impudent and reckless bidding up of equities with patent disregard for valuations. The motivation of “marking the close” hasn’t primarily been to generate arbitrage profits but to create impressions or symbolisms.

Further, profits from arbitrages seem very minimal relative to the risk from a downturn.

Additionally, portfolio performance will exert as barrier to access to funding from investor or depositor. This means underperformance from last minute pumps will diminish investor or depositor appetite to inject money on private institutions engaged in such activities.

Yet if such activities emanate from taxpayer institutions the same dilemma prevails; sustained access to taxpayer funding.

However there won’t be any apparent barriers on portfolio performance as taxpayers ultimately will bear the burden of the irresponsible management of fiduciary funds.

Importantly, if funding from the gaming the markets has emanated from credit, then sustained access to credit and the feasibility of leverage positions will serve as innate boundaries. 

If markets fail to deliver returns to maintain the viability of any levered portfolio, then this entails required additional infusion of collateral or prospective margin calls. And failure to add collateral will likely mean that index managers will become NET sellers once their respective balance sheets come under financial duress. 

In gist, as part of capital markets, stock markets serve a vital role in a market economy. Therefore, politicization of stocks would extrapolate to its deformation. The outcome of broken markets or markets turned into political circuses won’t be what the establishment thinks it would be. That’s because there is such a thing as the law of unintended consequences which arises out of distortions in resource allocations from political interference. 

Government’s Latest 8 Economic Statistics: Where Will G-R-O-W-T-H Come From?

If the Philippines G-R-O-W-T-H story has indeed been sound and stock markets reflects on such dynamics, then why the need for manipulations? Interestingly too, why the apparent desperation to prop up the indices?

Could the following statistics serve as reasons?

The Philippine government recently released a chain of statistics based on prices from retail activities, producer’s prices and construction prices, as well as export, import and industrial output.

Unfortunately these statistics hardly seem to support the establishment’s overly sanguine outlook, which supposedly pillars the record Phisix.

And unlike the establishment experts who see prices as merely (statistical) numbers with little import, in a market economy, prices signify as a mechanism that reveals of the decentralized expression of people’s knowledge, preferences and values through the conduct of voluntary exchanges that coordinates the balance of demand and supply.

And because of the coordinating function of market prices, prices and the balance of demand and supply operates on an interactive feedback loop: Changes in prices affect economic balances while simultaneously changes in demand and supply impact prices.

Let us see what government various prices indices have been saying.

1) Retail price index



The National Statistics Authority on the year on year change of February’s retail price index[1] (bold mine): The annual growth in the General Retail Price Index (GRPI) in the National Capital Region (NCR) went up to 2.2 percent in February 2015. Last month, it was posted at 1.8 percent and in February 2014, 1.9 percent. The heavily-weighted food index recorded a higher annual gain of 6.2 percent in February; beverages and tobacco index, 4.4 percent; chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats index, 2.1 percent; and manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials index, 2.7 percent. Slower annual upticks were however, seen correspondingly in the indices of crude materials, inedible except fuels and miscellaneous manufactured articles at 4.3 percent and 1.5 percent. Annual declines were registered in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials at -21.1 percent and in machinery and transport equipment index, -0.4 percent. 

On an annual basis, increases retail price increases had been attributed to mostly food and related prices while oil, manufacturing, transportation and related industries appear register decreases. In addition, the recent decline appear as an ongoing trend from a peak in August 2014. 

So what’s driving down prices of manufacturing, transportation and related industries, productivity growth, deluge of imports or a growing slack in demand? 

The same agency on month on month changes: On a monthly basis, the GRPI in NCR inched up 0.2 percent in February 2015 from its January level. -The 1.8 percent mark-up in beverages and tobacco index was due to price increments in beer, gin, whisky and selected softdrinks. -Price hikes in gasoline, LPG, diesel fuel and kerosene pulled up the index of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials by 0.7 percent. -Price add-ons in selected paint products and laundry soap effected a 0.2 percent growth in chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats index. -The monthly change in the miscellaneous manufactured articles index moved up by 0.4 percent as prices of selected ready-made clothing, undergarments, footwear items and jewelries were on the uptrend. -The heavily-weighted food index went down by 0.1 percent as prices of chicken, eggs, rice, fruits and vegetables were pegged lower during the month.- Downward price adjustments were seen in gravel and sand. This resulted to the 1.3 percent decline in the index for crude materials inedible except fuels. -The 0.4 percent drop in machinery and transport equipment index was brought about by the price reductions in electrical wiring devices and in recorded music CD.-The index of manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials rose 0.1 percent. This was due to the price upticks in cement and wire nails.

On a month on month basis, food and oil traded places, yet construction and manufacturing related goods or supplies remains under pressure.

So what has been pressuring prices of manufacturing, transportation and related industries goods to the downside? Again, has this been about productivity growth or deluge of imports or instead a growing slack in demand? 

On a month on month basis, Philippine retail prices even experienced DEFLATION (taken in the mainstream definition of contracting prices of goods)!

So what has brought about deflation?


Yet what signifies the relationship between languid February retail prices relative to the continuing downdraft in 2014 4Q HFCE and 4Q retail output with sharply slowing OFW remittance growth, the recent crash in M2 and CPI and decelerating banking loans?

Have these been collectively suggestive of demand growth? Or the lack of it?

And by the way, 4Q retail prices seem to reinforce the data provided above also provided from the government.

So, again whatever has been happening to the much ballyhooed consumer boom story?

Has 4Q 6.9% GDP been nothing but a government statistical pump?

2) Wholesale Price Index



The NSA on Year on Year changes of Wholesale price indices[2] (bold mine): The General Wholesale Price Index (GWPI) at the national level continued to decline as it recorded a negative rate of 5.1 percent in February. In January, it decreased by  6.6 percent and in February last year it had a positive growth of 3.9 percent. The drop was mainly attributed to the decreases in the annual rates of crude materials, inedible except fuels index at -6.8 percent and mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, -33.8 percent. Slower annual gains were likewise noted in chemicals including animal and vegetable oils and fats index at 2.2 percent and machinery and transport equipment index, 2.7 percent. On the other hand, higher growths were seen in heavily-weighted food index at 7.6 percent; beverages and tobacco index, 6.8 percent; manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials index, 2.0 percent; and miscellaneous manufactured articles index, 1.9 percent. 

Practically the same story with retail price index: Strong gains in food and related items but weak or tepid growth in manufacturing, transportation and related industries goods.

The consequences from spikes in Q2 and Q4 2014’s wholesale activities have most likely contributed to wholesale price pressures as I previously noted[3]:
And another paradox, even as retail activities significantly ease, there has been spike in wholesale trade output. Wholesale output has zoomed to the highest level since 2013!

Has importers and manufacturers been engaged in channel stuffing or forcing wholesalers to acquire more inventories than required?

And what has the ballooning divergence between wholesale and retail trade tell us? It tells us that if retail activities don’t improve significantly soon, there should be a huge inventory build-up on the wholesalers. If the goods are perishable, then this will translate to losses soon. If goods are non-perishable, then the accrual of surplus inventories should imply of a big slowdown in wholesale trade activities which should be transmitted to consumer goods imports or consumer based manufacturing.
In other words, a surge in the supply build up as demand faltered may have contributed meaningfully to the pressures seen in the wholesale price index.

Again whatever happened to the much heralded consumer growth story?

3) Producers Price Index

image

The NSA on annual and monthly changes to producer’s prices: Producer Price Index[4] (PPI, 2000=100) for manufacturing falls by 5.1 percent in February 2015 compared to negative 0.8 percent posted in February 2014. Thirteen of the twenty major sectors posted decreases led by the significant decreases of petroleum products (-26.3%), furniture and fixtures (-24.7%) and wood and wood products(-12.5%).  On the other hand, only five of the twenty major sectors registered increases led by rubber and plastic products (2.9%) and tobacco products (2.9%). On a monthly basis, PPI posted increments after manifesting negative monthly growth rates since October 2014. This can be traced to the increases of five sectors led by the heavily weighted petroleum products (8.7%). Furthermore, seven sectors posted decreases while seven sectors remained flat. 

Let me repeat: negative monthly growth rates since October 2014… yes price DEFLATION again! Price deflation appears to have not only been spreading to cover input prices on manufacturing firms, on monthly or even to yearly basis, but it seems to also be deepening.

Has this been due to productivity boom or again a torrent of imports or due to developing slack on manufacturing activities?

Weak retail, weak wholesale and now weak producers prices, all of which has been a carryover from late 2014. 

4Q 2014 6.9% GDP, really? 

4) Prices of Select Construction Retail Materials



The NSA on annual and monthly prices changes of select retail construction materials this March[5]: The annual increase of the Construction Materials Retail Price Index (CMRPI) in the National Capital Region (NCR) further eased to 0.1 percent in March 2015. It was posted at 1.5 percent last month and 1.2 percent in March 2014. Annual declines were noted in the following commodity groups: electrical materials index, -2.2 percent; plumbing materials index, -0.4 percent; and miscellaneous construction materials index, -5.6 percent. In addition, slower annual upticks were seen in masonry materials index at 1.2 percent; painting materials and related compounds index, 2.2 percent and tinsmithry materials index, 1.7 percent. On the other hand, a higher annual gain was noted in carpentry materials index at 2.9 percent. On a monthly basis, the CMRPI in NCR further dropped by 0.6 percent in March 2015. Last month, it declined by -0.5 percent.   Monthly decreases were observed in electrical materials and masonry materials indices at -1.1 percent; plumbing materials index, -1.7 percent; tinsmithry materials index, -0.1 percent; and miscellaneous construction materials index, -3.1 percent. The index for painting materials and related compounds moved at it’s last month rate of 0.1 percent while that of carpentry materials index had a faster monthly gain of 0.6 percent. Prices of selected electrical wires and wiring devices, gravel, sand, plumbing fittings, corrugated GI sheets and steel bars were generally quoted lower during the month. On the other hand, plywood was priced higher during the period.

Wow, retail price DEFLATION on a broad array of construction items!

Has falling prices been due to a surge in domestic output of suppliers, a tsunami of imports or growing demand slack? 

Whatever happened to the key driver of 4Q 2014, the construction boom story?

5) Prices of Select Construction Wholesale Materials


The NSA on annual and monthly prices changes of select wholesale construction materials this March (bold mine)[6]: The Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index (CMWPI) in the National Capital Region (NCR) still posted a negative rate of 1.2 percent in March. In February, it was recorded at -1.4 percent and in March 2014, 2.4 percent. The decrease was brought about by the decline in the annual rate of fuels and lubricants index at -21.5 percent. Contributing also to the downtrend were the slower annual gains in the indices of sand and gravel (2.5%);  G.I. sheet (1.0%); reinforcing steel (1.2%); structural steel (1.1%); tileworks (0.9%); and plumbing fixtures and accessories (6.6%). The rest of the commodity groups either had higher annual mark-ups or retained their last month’s rates with the machinery and equipment rental index still registering a zero growth.  Measured from a month ago level, the CMWPI in NCR grew by 0.4 percent in March. This was primarily due to the 3.0 percent growth in the fuels and lubricants index. In addition, the index of sand and gravel and electrical works went up by 0.2 percent; hardware index, 0.4 percent; plywood and plumbing fixtures and accessories indices, 0.6 percent; and lumber index, 0.1 percent. Slow-paced growths were, however, seen in the indices of concrete products and PVC pipes at 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. The indices of doors, jambs and steel casement and painting works retained their previous month’s rate of 0.1 percent while the other commodity groups had a zero growth. Upward adjustments in the prices of gasoline, diesel and fuel oil were noted during the month. Prices of sand, gravel, concrete and finishing nails, plywood, lumber, PVC doors, door jambs, electrical wires, some plumbing fixtures like kitchen sink and paints were also higher in March. 

On a monthly basis, the posted improvements appear to be in divergence with retail activities. Will wholesale construction activities mirror the dynamics of general wholesale activities?

Has the recent gains in wholesale activities been about direct sales to government?

Nonetheless, in general, what has the listless price activities of retail and wholesale construction materials been indicative of? A surge in domestic output of suppliers? A wave of imports? Or developing weakness in demand?

Again whatever happened to the key driver of 4Q 2014, the construction boom story?

6) Industrial Production Output


Has there been a production boom during the first two months of 2015?

The NSA on the Value and Volume of Production[7]: Value of Production Index contracts in February 2015 Value of Production Index (VaPI) decelerated as it posted an annual decrease of 2.0 percent in February 2015, according to the preliminary results of the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI). Ten major sectors showed significant decreases in VaPI as follows: furniture and fixtures (-51.9%), petroleum products(-30.8%), footwear and wearing apparel (-19.6%), rubber and plastic products (-16.3%), and chemical products (-15.9%).  Volume of Production maintains its positive rate in February 2015 Volume of Production Index (VoPI), however, grew at a slower rate of 4.4 percent in February 2015 compared with 6.0 percent growth during the same period of last year. The increment was mainly due to the improved performance in production output observed in 12 major sectors, with two-digit increases reported by the following: leather products (86.8%), tobacco products (55.2%), printing (51.4%),  basic metals (38.8%),  beverages  (38.6%),  textiles (20.3%), non-metallic mineral products (17.5%), wood and wood products (16.2%), and paper and paper products (15.1%).

And it has not just been in output but in net sales as well

The NSA on Value and Volume of Net Sales (bold mine): Value of Net Sales Index posts a negative rate Value of Net Sales Index (VaNSI) shrank by negative 0.5 percent in February 2015 compared with 9.6 percent growth registered in February 2014. Five major sectors that largely contributed to the reduction in VaNSI were:  petroleum products (-25.7%), printing (-26.0%), footwear  and  wearing apparel (-23.2%), miscellaneous manufactures(-11.2%), and wood and wood products (-10.3%). Volume of Net Sales Index gains in February 2015 Volume of Net Sales Index (VoNSI) attained a slower growth of 6.1 percent in February 2015 compared with 10.5 percent growth during the same month of last year. The increase was brought about by the expansion in sales output of 15 major sectors, with significant increases noted in the following: furniture and fixtures (39.9%), basic metals(35.0%), transport equipment (26.8%), chemical products (21.2%), fabricated metal products (21.2%),textiles (17.1%), leather products (16.0%), and non-metallic mineral products (13.4%).

Wow. Significant declines in both production and sales. Industrial activities seems to be slowing considerably. 

7) February Exports


The NSA on Philippine exports as of February[8] (bold mine): The   Philippines’  export   earnings   totaled   $4.513 billion   in   February  2015, a 3.1 percent decrement from $4.657 billion recorded value in February of 2014.  The negative growth was mainly brought about by the decrease of six major commodities out of the top ten commodities for the month and these were: woodcrafts and furniture; other mineral products; metal components; electronic equipment and parts; other manufactures; and machinery and transport equipment. Furthermore, aggregate merchandise exports for January to February 2015 likewise registered a 1.8 percent decrease from $9.036 billion in 2014 to $8.869 billion in same period of 2015).

One quarter of contraction!

Has the Philippine export nominal growth trend (lower pane) been broken?

Have exports and OFW remittances been singing the same tune?

8) January Imports



The NSA on January imports[9] (bold mine): The country’s total external trade in goods for January 2015 amounting to $5.108 billion, declined by 14.2 percent from $5.955 billion recorded during the same period a year ago. The decrease in total imports for this period was due to the negative performance of eight out of the top ten major commodities for the month.  These were: Transport Equipment; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; Iron and Steel; Organic and Inorganic Chemicals; Plastics in Primary and Non-Primary Forms; Industrial Machinery and Equipment; Other Food & Live Animals; Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles. The balance of trade in goods (BOT-G) in January 2015 registered a deficit of $751.54 million lower than the $1.576 billion trade deficit in the same period last year.

Wow. Philippine imports collapsed last January! Why? Has this been due to unabated smuggling or a dramatic weakening of internal demand or a combo?

In summary, frail retail and wholesale price activities which likely implies a still feeble consumer, deflation in producers prices and weakening of industrial output which possibly reflects on manufacturing conditions and falling retail and wholesale construction material prices which probably extrapolates to diminished construction activities, as well as, cascading external trade via slumping exports and imports…so where the heck will high economic G-R-O-W-T-H come from???

The bizarre thing has been that government GDP statistics contradicts their other statistics.

Nonetheless as 4Q GDP shows, since G-R-O-W-T-H represents merely statistics, they can conjure anything from it, or like a rabbit, G-R-O-W-T-H can be pulled out of the hat. 

As caveat, if 1Q 2015 statistics should reflect on a big downside adjustment, then expect the BSP to use this as pretext to cut rates.

Wonder why the desperate attempts to pump the Phisix? To hope that record stocks can sway sentiment and reverse current downshift.

image

But it has not just been a Phisix pump now; the yield of 1 month Philippine treasury bills has been undergoing tremendous amounts of pump and dump volatility. 

Why? Could it be that these have signs of growing pressures on short term financing?

Finally have my past warnings [10] now been in motion? 
And slowing money supply will now put pressure on profits derived from the narrowing window of price arbitrages from previous money supply expansion. This will begin to negatively impact capital expansion, thereby slowing increases in income that will be reflected on reduced demand or consumer spending. As the supply side growth skids, malinvestments will begin surface in terms oversupply and debt burdens. This means that the process of diversion of resources—from productive to non-productive speculative capital consuming sectors—will slowdown. There will be a feedback loop between debt burden and growth. And once the problems become evident, the process of market clearing via liquidations and asset value mark downs will accelerate. Boom will morph into a horrific bust.





[2] National Statistics Authority General Wholesale Price Index (1998=100) : February 2015, April 17, 2015


[4] National Statistics Authority Producer Price Survey : February 2015 April 7, 2015


[6] National Statistics Authority Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index in the National Capital Region (2000=100) : March 2015 April 14, 2015

[7] National Statistics Authority Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries : February 2015 April 14, 2015

[8] Philippine Statistics Authority Merchandise Exports Performance : February 2015 April 8, 2015

[9] Philippine Statistics Authority External Trade Performance: January 2015 March 25, 2015

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Wall Street Journal: Asia’s Debt Trap: After the Debt Party Comes the Hangover

Last weekend I pointed out that record stocks hasn’t been about the popular notion of G-R-O-W-T-H but about record accumulation of DEBT
Record or near record stocks has become a dominant feature even in ex-Japan and China Asia. Yet if one looks at their respective economic G-R-O-W-T-H trends since 2011, they have MOSTLY been on a decline: Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesiaand Thailand. Only India, Vietnam and New Zealand appear to beat the region’s dominant trend.

On the other hand, what the establishment has mostly ignored has been the relationship of debt with record stocks…

In sum, record stocks (as well as record property prices and bonds) have mostly been about unbridled and rampaging speculative activities financed by credit that has been pillared on zero (or negative) bound rates, QEs and other monetary easing tools than they have been about G-R-O-W-T-H.
The Wall Street Journal says after Asia's debt shindig, the hangover comes.

The hangover… (bold mine)
Asian countries borrowed heavily to maintain growth during the financial crisis, but couldn’t break the habit even as the global economy healed. Now they are feeling the hangover.

Growth is slowing fast across the continent as consumers and businesses focus on repaying debt. Central banks have cut rates, pushing currencies lower, but economies haven’t picked up. Demand has stayed weak, keeping wages stagnant and price growth anemic, making borrowings even harder to repay.

This dynamic could significantly harm the region’s economic prospects, potentially dragging down global growth rates.
image

The previous phase… “Here comes the Boom”
Debt levels in several Asian countries, such as China, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea, are higher than they were before the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. Some countries, such as South Korea, Malaysia and Australia, have household-debt-to-income levels greater than the U.S. had before its financial crisis.

Countries in the region had been careful about debt after the pain of the Asian crisis. That allowed them to borrow to maintain growth and serve as a buffer for the rest of the world during the global financial meltdown. But Asia kept borrowing even after the crisis.

“Asia has become addicted to credit and easy money has bred complacency among policy makers,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings PLC.

There is an element of irony in Asia’s debt binge. The U.S. debt boom that led to the financial crisis was made possible in part by low interest rates caused by high savings rates in Asia. Countries in the region, particularly China, gobbled up U.S. Treasury debt, driving down yields and borrowing costs in the broader economy.

Today, super-loose monetary policies in the U.S., Europe and Japan have caused cash to flood into Asia. Yield-hungry investors have driven down interest rates, allowing governments, companies and individuals to borrow more than ever before, at the lowest rates in history.

The borrowing has played out differently across the region. In China, giant state-owned businesses, real-estate developers and local governments loaded up on debt. In Malaysia and Thailand, it was consumers who borrowed to fund the trappings of a middle-class lifestyle, such as cars and home appliances.
Yep, the credit risk profile cannot be seen as a one-size-fits-all category. The causal dynamics of debt has been relative to the idiosyncratic structures of each political economy.
 
The Debt Numbers…
Even excluding Japan, debt in Asia rose to 205% of gross domestic product in 2014, compared to 144% in 2007 and 139% in 1996, just before the Asian financial crisis, according to calculations by Morgan Stanley. In China, total debt rose to $28.2 trillion in mid-2014, or 282% of GDP, up from $7.4 trillion in 2007, according to McKinsey. The ratio is 269% in the U.S.

Even excluding Japan, debt in Asia rose to 205% of gross domestic product in 2014, compared to 144% in 2007 and 139% in 1996, just before the Asian financial crisis, according to calculations by Morgan Stanley. In China, total debt rose to $28.2 trillion in mid-2014, or 282% of GDP, up from $7.4 trillion in 2007, according to McKinsey. The ratio is 269% in the U.S.

In some poor countries such as India and Indonesia, debt is still relatively low compared to the size of their economies. But pockets of debt, such as among India’s infrastructure companies, are weighing on the economy. Other places, including South Korea and Thailand, are facing a difficult combination of high debt and ageing populations, meaning their already-slowing economies are unlikely to give the same kind of lift to the world’s growth as in the past.
But the Wall Street Journal attempts to ‘sanitize’ the risks
Despite the rise in debt, few expect a financial crisis in Asia. Most borrowing was done in domestic rather than foreign currencies, so a currency depreciation isn’t likely to boost the chances of default. Too much debt denominated in foreign currencies helped set off the Asian crisis in the 1990s.

Most governments in Asia have modest debt levels, allowing them to bail out borrowers and stimulate their economies. And borrowing is largely of the plain-vanilla variety, mostly bank loans and bonds, rather than the highly leveraged structured products that contributed to the U.S. housing bust.

But there are worrisome trends. In China, half of the debt is tied to real estate and a third of the outstanding borrowing came through the country’s shadow-banking system. That debt could ricochet onto bank balance sheets, as happened during the U.S. financial crisis. China’s stock-market rally has been juiced by margin lending, which is up 70% this year.
Fading bubbles prompt government to pump even more bubbles…(South Korea edition)
With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 286%, according to McKinsey, South Korea is among the world’s 20 most indebted countries, and its household-debt-to-GDP ratio of 81% puts it just ahead of the U.S.

Despite the debt overhang, South Korea’s economy is expected to grow by more than 3% this year, one of the fastest rates among developed countries, and the central bank still has room to cut interest rates.

Warning signs are piling up, however. Concerns about deflation, a decline in prices that makes consumers reluctant to spend and debt harder to repay, are growing. In March, consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in almost 16 years.

With rate cuts and a depreciating currency failing to boost demand, the government is trying to drive up prices of real estate, which accounts for three-quarters of household assets. It eased limits on bank lending for mortgages and increased price caps for developers.
The article demonstrates why Asia has now been trapped by its deepening dependence on debt—she cannot grow its way out of debt!

And because of this, governments (not limited to Asian governments) have become serial bubble blowers in the hope of kicking the can down the road or of resorting to new bubbles to solve the legacy issues of  previous bubbles.

There are some items to nitpick though. 

Bailouts are no free lunches. The assumption that low government debt may pick the slack up from the private sector will entail massive consequences. These will come the form of deepening cronyism and corruption (enlarged government), expanded financial, economic and civil repression (e.g. higher taxes, capital controls, social mobility controls etc.), transfer of risks to the public sector, higher inflation risks, prospective financial stability risks, and most importantly, diminished productivity.

The other misplaced assumption has been that the dominance of domestic debt presupposes lesser risks. 

Such is a very simplistic way to view credit risks. Even domestic debts have been prone to credit events. As Harvard’s Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff warned in their chronicles of global debt crises,

image
we note that domestic debt is not static around default episodes. In fact, domestic debt often shows the same frenzied increases in the run-up to external default as foreign borrowing does. The pattern is illustrated in Figure 5, which depicts debt accumulation during the five years up to and including external default across all the episodes in our sample. Presumably, the comovement of domestic and foreign debt is produced by the same procyclical behavior of fiscal policy documented by previous researchers. As shown repeatedly over time, emerging market governments are prone to treating favorable shocks as permanent, fueling a spree in government spending and borrowing that ends in tears
Besides, current monetary policies have already been manifesting bailout measures in place, which is why dependence on debt keeps mounting. This means that at current rate of debt accumulation, existing government resources may not be enough to finance bailouts when volatility emerges.

Bottom line: There is no such thing as a free lunch. The world appears headed for a great debt default.

Record stocks in the face of record imbalances at the precipice.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Phisix: A Remarkable Dump and Pump Session!

Today marks another splendid session. A session filled with manipulations which attempts to PROJECT CONFIDENCE from actions of the local version of the Plunge Protection Team. 

In the US, the Plunge Protection Team PPT represents an ad hoc political body that had emerged out of Executive Order 12631, signed by United States President Ronald Reagan on March 18, 1988. The PPT is formally known as the “The Working Group on Financial Markets (also, President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the Working Group”) according to Wikipedia.org

The PPT has long been suspected of intervening and manipulating the stock markets with the intent to prevent a crash. Yet intent may not always be the objective for interventions.

I have no idea whether the local version represents interventions from purely taxpayer institutions or a collusion of public and private institutions or complicity from a mishmash of private institutions.

What seems evident has been that interventions have been going on with increasing frequency--now almost a daily phenomenon--and intensity!

And such interventions have been designed to push the benchmark higher. And higher stocks would then be rationalized in the political context as 'confidence' from present policies that resulted to G-R-O-W-T-H.

Only a few stocks carry the weight of the Phisix as noted yesterday
As of the close of April 17, the market cap weighting of the top 15 issues of the Phisix constitutes a staggering 79.57% of the domestic bellwether!

Meanwhile, the 10 best performers as measured by year to date gains (as of last week) has an accrued market cap share of an astounding 55.23%!

So movements of the 10 best performers or the top 15 biggest market caps determine the direction of the Phisix!
So all it takes to push the index higher is to intervene in the pricing dynamics of select issues from the 15 biggest market caps.

The modus comes in three dimensions.

One is a combination of intraday post lunch break pump which I call the ‘afternoon delight’ (afternoon session pump). Afternoon delight usually culminates with “marking the close”.

The second has been entirely a “marking the close” maneuver. Marking the close, perhaps, has been the cheapest way to intervene. As noted above, this has become a regular or a daily feature. 

The third class of interventions occurs during a global market selloff. 

Index managers would go to work early in the session and resort to “panic buying” of major issues to counter a selloff. The all day panic buying would then result to either a minimal loss or even with gains for the day. I call this the "panic buying day". 

So far there have been only four Panic buying day sessions since October 2014. 

The limited use of “panic buying day” has likely been due to high costs required for such operations.

To proceed to today's remarkable dump and pump.

The Phisix started the day in the red.


However the ‘dump’ intensified and even climaxed going to the last 30 minutes of the session. 

The Phisix plunge crested with a decline of 170 points or 2.13% (2:50 pm)! 

Then the modus went into operations. Index managers pulled another 'afternoon delight' during the last 30 minutes and ended the day with another remarkable ‘marking the close'! 

The marking the close essentially shaved 53.74 points or a whopping about .66% of the pre runoff losses!

At end of the session, the Phisix lost only 1.03%! A fantastic swing from -2.13% to -1.03% in just 40 minutes from a late panic buying episode! 

Index managers went to save the day from a brutal dump!


Index managers worked with big cap issues from four sectors.


Ironically, the property sector provided little bearing for today’s managed pump.

I’ll cite one issue as example: The Phisix’s largest market cap: SM

SM has a share of 9.85% (as of today's close) in terms of market cap weighting in the Phisix basket.


SM was down by a staggering 2.9% just prior to the runoff!


Aside from the above chart, the ‘time and sale’ table reveals of the abrupt erasure of SM’s losses at the last minute. 

"Marking the close" expunged almost ALL of the SM’s losses! SM closed the day with just -.11%! An incredible swing from -2.9% to -.11% in just a flick!

All these serial flagrant market rigging represents what constitutes as “confidence” for the establishment.

(all charts and table from colfinancial)

BoE Governor and FSB Chair Mark Carney Warns of Risk of Sharp and Disorderly Reversal in Financial Markets

More financial risk alarm bells from political authorities. 

Bank of England Governor and Chairman of G-20’s Financial Stability Board Mark Carney just warned of the high risks of “sharp and disorderly reversal” in financial markets.

From Reuters: (bold mine)
The world has adjusted well to divergent growth and monetary policy expectations but the risk of a "sharp and disorderly reversal" in financial markets remains, Financial Stability Board Chairman Mark Carney said on Saturday.

"The risk of a sharp and disorderly reversal remains, given compressed credit and liquidity risk premia," Carney, whose FSB oversees the global financial system, said in a statement to the International Monetary Fund's steering committee.

Carney, who is governor of the Bank of England, said market participants needed to be mindful of the risk of diminished market liquidity, asset price discontinuities, and contagion across markets.

"The impact of lower commodity prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and moderating economic growth may lead to further challenges for the financial resilience of some emerging market and developing economies, including the risk of capital flow volatility," he added.
Accumulated risks have become so apparent that even the usually blind political authorities seem as already anticipating them.

Record stocks in the face of record imbalances at the precipice.

Wow. China’s PBOC Aggressively Eases via Reserve Requirement Ratio, Mulls QE (LTRO)!

Last night I commented on the proposed plan to rein exploding margin trades in China’s equity markets
This seems like another superficial or political staged attempt to curb or control the stock market bubble that has been going berserk.
Apparently while one regulatory agency may want to control margin trades, the priority of the national government as expressed by the actions of the central bank goes on the opposite direction.

Yet more signs that all has not been well in China, despite what government statistics say. 

The Chinese government has become even more frantic or more desperate to forestall a bursting bubble. 

Demonstrated preference: action speaks louder than words. The action: The PBOC aggressively cuts Reserve Requirements and even considers ECB style QE (LTRO)

First the Reserve Requirements. From Reuters: (bold mine)
China's central bank on Sunday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, the second industry-wide cut in two months, adding more liquidity to the world's second-biggest economy to help spur bank lending and combat slowing growth.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5 percent, effective from April 20, the central bank said in a statement on its website www.pbc.gov.cn.

"Though the growth in the first quarter met the official target of around 7 percent for 2015, the slowdown in several areas, including industrial output and retail sales, has caused concern," said a report published by the official Xinhua news service covering the announcement.

The latest cut, the deepest single reduction since the depth of the global crisis in 2008, shows how the central bank is stepping up efforts to ward off a sharp slowdown in the economy.
Second, PBOC’s plan to mimic ECB’s LTRO
image

From Wall Street Journal (bold mine)
China’s central bank is considering taking a page from Europe’s financial-crisis handbook to free up more credit as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows.

The proposed strategy would allow Chinese banks to swap local-government bailout bonds for cash as a way to bolster liquidity and boost lending, said people familiar with the People’s Bank of China talks.

Adopting the strategy would mark a major shift in the central bank’s money-supply policy and underscore the leadership’s deep concern about missing already lowered growth expectations.

In recent months, China’s leaders have directed the central bank to try to beef up bank lending and lower borrowing costs as the economy slows and capital leaves the country.

But a barrage of easing measures—including two interest-rate cuts since November—has had limited success. Instead of stimulating targeted areas of the economy, such as small businesses, they have helped companies already heavily in debt.

The move also triggered a run-up in China’s stock markets that prompted the top securities regulator last week to rein in speculative stock-trading activities. On Friday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang urged Chinese banks to do more to support the “real” economy.
As I wrote last night
Yet despite the economic fragilities, the Chinese government continues to force feed credit into system. The Chinese government appears to either be buying time from a bubble bust or hoping that blowing new bubbles may cure problems caused by previous bubbles
The Chinese government fails recognize that the consequence of the previous (property) bubble has been to engender widespread balance sheet impairments in the real economy. 

So foisting of credit to the financially inhibited economy via intensified easing measures will only signify “pushing on a string” or the inability of monetary policies to entice consumers to borrow and spend.

Instead, the ramifications of such policies will spillover into sectors that has previously had least exposure to credit. And this is what China’s stock market bubble has been about. 

Recent credit growth has suffused to the stock market where borrowed money has ballooned and used to hysterically bid up equity prices even as the real economy has been materially deteriorating.

So the Chinese government basically adapts the current therapeutic government standard in dealing with bubbles: Do the same things over and over again and expect different results. Or solve bubble problems by blowing another bubble.

This marks another sign that record stocks comes in the face of record imbalances at the precipice. 

Batten down the hatches