The greatest need of our time is to clean out the enormous mass of mental and emotional rubbish that clutters our minds and makes all political and social life a mass illness. Without this house cleaning we cannot begin to see. Unless we see, we cannot think—Thomas Merton
OFW Unemployment versus Remittances Data: Which of the Two is Accurate or Valid?
From the BSP (November 16)
Personal remittances from overseas Filipinos (OFs) amounted to US$2.888 billion in September 2020, higher by 9.1 percent than the US$2.648 billion recorded in September 2019. This brought the total personal remittances for the first nine months of 2020 to US$24.302 billion. At this level, the contraction in cumulative remittances for the first nine months narrowed to 1.4 percent from 2.6 percent in August 2020.
From the Inquirer (October 23):
More than half million overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) were displaced by the pandemic abroad while an estimated 1.1 million more were unable to resume or start working overseas since January, official figures showed. According to data from the Department of Labor and Employment (Dole), as of Oct. 20, there were 505,837 OFWs who were affected by the pandemic, including the 864 who died out of the 9,402 OFWs who contracted COVID-19. A total 496,435 OFWs were reported to have lost their jobs due to the global economic shutdown.
MORE. Than. Half.
From the ABS-CBN News (November 18):
Some 310,000 Filipino migrant workers have been repatriated since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and more are expected to come home, Defense Sec. Delfin Lorenzana said Tuesday.
From the Financial Times (October 19):
The Covid-19 pandemic has ended a decade’s growth in the flow of migrants around the world, while leaving foreign-born workers at much greater risk of infection, unemployment and educational disadvantage, the OECD said on Monday.
Immigrants and their children now account for more than one in five people across the 37 economies tracked by the international organisation. But the number of residency permits granted by OECD countries in the first half of 2020 was less than half the level seen a year earlier, as many governments closed borders and stopped processing applications.
“It is very clear that 2020 will be marked by a historic decline in migration,” said Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of the OECD’s migration division. The picture has been similarly stark in countries outside the OECD that have big migrant populations: in Saudi Arabia, the number of permits granted dropped from around 550,000 in the first half of 2019 to a mere 55,000 in the first half of 2020.
Meanwhile, existing migrants — many of whom have been unable to return to their home countries, with borders closed and flights either unavailable or unaffordable — have been far harder hit by the pandemic than the native-born.
The OECD said studies in several countries had shown that immigrants faced an infection risk at least twice as high as the native-born, partly because they were more likely to live in overcrowded housing, rely on public transport or work in essential roles that could not be done from home.
They were also more likely to work in sectors such as hospitality where job losses have been concentrated. The OECD said the evidence so far showed that in almost all countries, they had been more likely to fall out of employment.
Last September, we noted:
1. 500k displaced OFWs represents fake news. It never happened.
2. 500k workers, initially retrenched, were rehired immediately and simultaneously.
3. Employers of the remaining 1.7 million OFWs increased their wages substantially, which offset income losses of those unemployed. Or incomes of these OFWs flourished from having moonlighting jobs.
4. The remaining OFWs dug deep into their savings and sent these home.
5. The remaining OFWs borrowed money extensively to send these home.
6. The BSP has inflated the remittance numbers to paint a sound macroeconomic picture of the Philippine economy. They probably did these by declaring part of the USD borrowings of banks and or the National Government as remittances.
On the July OFW Remittance Bounce, What the BSP’s Record Gross International Reserves Means, More on Unemployment Statistics, September 21
Not counting migrants, October’s numbers show that displaced OFW workers have expanded to cover more than half of the 2.2 million OFWs.
Who to believe: the DOLE or the BSP? Ghost unemployed and repatriated OFWs data or Ghost remittances data?
