Monday, May 10, 2010

$1 Trillion Monster Bailout For The Euro!

I'm back!

And am vindicated anew!

Coming back from my self imposed exile away from the miasma of domestic politics, I picked this up from media on my way home; this from the Associated Press,

"We shall defend the euro whatever it takes," EU Commissioner Olli Rehn said after an 11 hour-meeting of EU finance ministers that capped a hectic week of chaotic sparring between panicked governments and aggressive markets." (bold emphasis mine)

It's been long argued on this space that policymakers have the innate proclivity to act towards inflationism. That's because of the following factors: inherent addiction to the printing press (or government spending), policy "triumphalism" (recent gains from interim policies), prevailing economic ideology and short term or "career" oriented policy based decisions.

And the political reaction to last week's meltdown was as clinically precise as we had anticipated.

Whether it is the US, China or the EU, the policy approach have all been similar-throw money at the problem- regardless of the long term consequences of their actions.

And it will be no different even for the newly elected authorities in the Philippines.

More from the AP,

(bold emphasis mine)

"The European Union spearheaded a $1 trillion plan Monday to contain Europe's spreading debt crisis and keep it from tearing the euro currency apart and derailing the global economic recovery.

"Central banks around the world joined the coordinated effort to prop up the euro and repel speculative attacks against Europe's weakest countries. The European Central Bank used what analysts called its "nuclear option" — buying public and private debt to shore up liquidity in "dysfunctional" markets and lower borrowing costs.The U.S. Federal Reserve separately reopened a currency "swap" program to ship billions of dollars overseas, pumping more short-term cash into the financial system...

"Under the three-year plan, the European Commission — the EU's governing body — will make euro60 billion ($75 billion) available while countries from the 16-nation eurozone would promise backing for euro440 billion ($570 billion). The IMF would contribute an additional sum of at least half of the EU's total contribution, or euro250 billion."

So the massive bailout is essentially another redistribution from the real economy to the banking system, and to bank related creditors, as well as governments -the Euro version!

But this time with much of the world participating in the monster bailout via the IMF.

Rest assured that inflationary pressures are not limited to one country or region, but a concerted global action. So while the Fed inflates to protect her domestic banking system, the ECB, EU and the IMF along with everyone else are doing the same. We expect any further problems, say in China, to be met by the same response.

It's good to be back and proven right!

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