Monday, June 28, 2010

Gold Unlikely A Deflation Hedge

This article says Gold is a hedge against deflation

According to mineweb,

``Gold is also an excellent hedge in periods of deflation. What is happening in times of pronounced deflation? Public budgets are strained, the financial sector is faced with systemic problems, currencies are depreciated in order to reflate the system, and the money supply is continuously rising. The creditworthiness of companies and countries is queried, the confidence in paper currencies falls, and gold is subjected to remonetisation."

The article uses historical performance, based on gold and gold mining share prices, to make such claim...

I don't think this is valid.

All one has to do is look at how the US dollar has performed during the years prior to central banking and the years after central banking existed.

In the period of 1814-1897 the US dollar fundamentally retained purchasing power relative to Gold. Post 1914 or the birth of the US Federal Reserve, the US dollar begun its steady decline.



And it has not been confined to the US dollar...


chart from Uncommon wisdom

Whether it is the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc or the British Pound, once released from gold as the anchor, paper currencies has steadily lost purchasing power.

Ergo, the fundamental difference is that GOLD and SILVER had then been money, because of the Gold Standard. Today we have fiat money, where gold has been reduced to "reserve assets" for central banks. Therefore we can't apply gold's exalted past with today.

Where the deflation represents the rise of the real purchasing power of money, until gold is accepted by the public as money, will then it serve its purported role as deflation hedge.

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