Pollsters don’t like being very different from their competitors so they often fudge the turnout numbers so they don’t go out on a limb. Going out on a limb is great if you’re right. If you’re wrong, you look like an idiot. If you want to have an ongoing business, you don’t want to go out on a limb too often. So what looks like a consensus–an average of independent results, can actually represent, groupthink But that’s true of the national results, too.
Monday, November 05, 2012
Quote of the Day: Pollsters Find Comfort in a Crowd
This is from Professor Russ Roberts at the Cafe Hayek. This serves as another reason to look at surveys or polling trends with a skeptical eye.