Saturday, June 16, 2012

China’s Middle Class Support Demand for Gold

From Mineweb.com

The rise of China's middle-class is helping support demand for gold in the country. China, the largest producer of gold, is set to become the biggest consumer of the metal in 2012, with a significant proportion of luxury purchases in China veering towards gold accessories, bought by middle-class aspirational consumers.

By 2020, 25% of China's population is expected to be middle-class, creating great consumption demand. Diamond studded luxury items and gold watches are seeing `blow-out like demand' from wealthy shoppers in China, who are snapping up these expensive accessories to make a fashion statement, give as business gifts or just collect.

What also augurs well this year is that middle-class wealth is expected to spread to 600 million people in third-tier Chinese cities, with a sizeable percentage investing in gold or buying gold jewellery.

For a country whose gold production in the first four months of 2012 reached 109.6 tonnes, up 6.13% from the same period last year, passion for the yellow metal has scaled new heights.

Total retail sales of gold, silver and jewellery in China amounted to $2.82 billion in May, up 18.2% compared to the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Accumulative retail sales of the segment in the first five months of 2012 reached $14.6 billion, up 16.1% compared to the same period last year.

In May, the country's overall retail sales of consumer goods including gold, silver and jewellery totalled $262 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year at nominal growth rates. The real growth rate was 11%, data showed.

The jewellery sector in China has become a hot spot fuelled by surging investment demand for gold and precious stones. Jewellery retailers registered a 42% increase in sales last year, driven by consumers' taste for gold and gemstone-encrusted jewellery. Reports indicate that these jewellers are looking beyond traditional markets, eager to dig into the pockets of the newly rich middle-class in smaller cities.

For some time now, the country's growing middle-class has been pursuing a quality of lifestyle that includes appreciation for exquisite fine jewellery. And, retail jewellery chains are expanding to smaller cities and districts to keep up with demand.

Statists have always made the point that paper money has been the popular choice. But appeal to popularity premised on free lunch or Santa Claus politics cannot and will not supplant economic reality.

Today’s crisis have been manifestations of the unraveling of such unsustainable institutional arrangements.

Statists also say that people will have difficulty over adjusting or accepting to the return of gold as money. Maybe for the people of the West this may hold some substance. The intellectual elite may have successfully indoctrinated upon the public to accept the ideology that gold is a “barbaric metal” and where free lunch politics have promoted and embedded to their lifestyles the creed that “debt based spending is the path to prosperity” through government’s cartelized banking system.

But this certainly is far from reality for most of Asia such as China, India, Malaysia or Vietnam. The rate of growth of gold’s demand by China’s middle class looks like a testament to these.

In other words, should a global currency crisis emerge, then Asians are likely to reform their respective monetary system faster than that of the West. But that would be just a guess.

Yet it is unclear if prospective monetary reforms will include gold. But chances are increasing that gold may be part of it.

Global central banks have been accumulating gold at a faster rate led by Asia.

From Reuters.com

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted in its June 2012 Quarterly Review that "central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia expanded rapidly over the past decade because of the unprecedented rise in foreign reserve assets" Reserves rose from $1.1 trillion to $6.4 trillion in 2011.

This quote, which I earlier posted, attributed to Janos Feteke (who I think was the deputy governor of the National Bank of Hungary) looks apropos to the surging demand of gold from China’s middle class and to the micro versus macro debate on the return of the gold standard,

There are about three hundred economists in the world who are against gold, and they think that gold is a barbarous relic - and they might be right. Unfortunately, there are three billion inhabitants of the world who believe in gold.

What truly matters is to get monetary system out of government's hands or to depoliticize or denationalize (Hayek) money and allow for competition in banking (free banking), where gold standard may or may not be the accepted standard. Nevertheless sound money based on free markets.

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