Instead of focusing at Typhoon Yolanda, I said that we should focus on our neighbors. Here is what I wrote last weekend
I would rather be watching two neighbors, Indonesia and China, who seem to be experiencing re-emergent signs of financial market ‘tremors’ which poses as potential risks for a shock…The last time the rupiah hit a milestone this coincided with the turmoil in the ASEAN financial markets.
The rupiah is at the Rubicon…
Earlier the rupiah touched 11, 730, the intraday high early September.
As one would note from today’s intraday chart the rupiah seems upward bound.
Will the breakout to new USD-rupiah highs occur today?
Strains in Indonesia’s currency market appear to be reflected on the yield of 10 year sovereign bonds.
The Jakarta Composite Index is still closed, but Indonesia’s stock markets have already been weakening.
Should the fresh rupiah lows (or USD-rupiah high) become a reality, brace for downside turbulence for ASEAN markets.
1 comment:
You write Strains in Indonesia’s currency market appear to be reflected on the yield of 10 year sovereign bonds.
I reply yes, bond vigilantes in calling the Interest rate higher on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, has literally destroyed the Indonesia rupiah and investment wealth in the Jakarta Stock Market.
On Wednesday November 20, 2013, Liberalism as an age and as an economic paradigm perished as the US Dollar, $USD, UUP, traded higher, as the Euro Yen Currency Carry Trade, EUR/JPY, traded sharply lower in overnight trading, as currency traders took the Japanese Yen, FXY, higher and the Euro, FXE, lower, as they believed the EURJPY overvalued in light of the exhaustion of the world central banks’ monetary authority, as the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, has soared from 2.48% on October 23, 2013, to trade higher to 2.79% this week, that is immediately after Janet Yellen confirmation hearings. Likewise the AUD/JPY broke sharply lower, as the currency traders took the Australian Dollar, FXA, lower. Debt deflation at the hands of the bond vigilantes commenced global competitive currency devaluation.
World Stocks, VT, traded lower, documenting the failure of fiat wealth. Sectors trading lower included Resorts and Casinos, BJK, Social Media, SOCL, and Automobiles, CARZ.
Nation Investment, EFA, traded lower, documenting the failure of sovereignty of democratic nation state governance. Greece, GREK, Spain, EWP, Italy, EWI, Ireland, EIRL, Germany, EWG, EWGS, Netherlands, EWN, Finland, EFNL, Eurozone Stocks, EZU, and the European Financials, EUFN, such as IRE, SAN, CS, and DB, traded lower. Switzerland, EWL, Norway, NORW, and Sweden, EWD, traded lower.
Australia, EWA, KROO, Australia’s Bank, WBK, New Zealand, ENZL, led Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, and the Far East Financials, FEFN, such as Japan’s, MFG, and SMFG, lower. The Philippines, EPHE, Indonesia, IDX, Thailand, THD, South Korea, EWY, Vietnam, VNM, traded lower.
The BRICS, EEB, traded lower as Brazil, EWZ, EWZS, Brazil Financials, BRAF, India, INP, SCIN, and India Earnings, EPI, Russia, RSX, ERUS, and China, YAO, ECNS, and Chinese Financials, CHIX, traded lower. And The Emerging Markets, EEM, traded lower, as Mexico, EWW, Peru, EPU, and Chile, ECH, traded lower.
Global Financials, IXG, traded lower, documenting the failure of the seigniorage of the banker regime. but US Stockbrokers, IAI, and Biotechnology, IBB, traded higher on the slightly higher US Dollar, $USD, which forced Gold, GLD, and the Gold Miners, GDX, GDXJ, seen in this Finviz Screener lower. Solar Energy, TAN, bounced higher from yesterday’s strong trade lower as Solar Plaza China's Trina Solar Posts First Profit In Nine Quarters and as Zachs reports JinkoSolar Earnings Beat Estimates.
US Stocks, VTI, such as the S&P 500, SPY, and the US Small Caps, IWM, The Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, Regional Banks, KRE, and Investment Bankers, KCE, traded unchanged. The Nikkei, NKY, traded unchanged.
Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded lower as the bond vigilantes steepened the US 10 30 Treasury Yield Curve, $TXN:$TYX, STPP, and called the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, sharply higher to 2.79%.
A rising Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, has destroyed Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, Emerging Market Investment, EEM, such as Indonesia, IDX, the Philippines, EPHE, and Brazil, EWZ, EWZS, and Emerging Market Infrastructure Investment, EMIF, such as BRXX.
Fiat money, that is Credit, AGG, and Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, died October 23, 2013, on the rise of the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, to 2.48%; and the bond vigilantes in calling that rate higher to 2.79% on November 20, 2013, terminated fiat wealth, VT, as well as democracy nation state sovereignty, EFA, and the banker regime’s seigniorage, IXG, on November 20, 2013.
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