Doubling Down on Hope Based Policies: EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion

The other day I wrote:

Finally, observe that the Eurozone’s current ferocious stock market rally comes in the face of a frantic doubling down on policies by the ECB—two interest rate cuts, negative deposit rates, TLRO, QE based on covered bonds and asset bonds with promises to include corporate bonds and sovereign debt.

While stock markets have been on a sizzling winning streak, EU politicians-bureaucrats have been working round the clock to “jumpstart” the region's faltering economic growth by throwing “free money” and by promising to dispatch even more money at the privileged segments of the economy.  

Funny but aren’t stocks supposed to function as discounting mechanism on future income streams? Apparently this doesn’t seem to be the case anymore, as bad fundamentals or news has now become a fodder for manic buying.  This means stock markets, like Pavlov’s dogs, have become “conditioned” or programmed to exercise reflex buying in response to HOPE from political canard. Stock markets have become propaganda tools for the government.

And yet again we see dangling of even more HOPE based policies in the face of economic deterioration.

From the Bloomberg:

The European Union is planning a 21 billion-euro ($26 billion) fund to share the risks of new projects with private investors, two EU officials said.

The new entity is designed to have an impact of about 15 times its size, making it the anchor of the EU’s 300 billion-euro investment program, according to the officials, who asked not to be named because the plans aren’t final. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is due to announce the three-year initiative this week.

The commission will pledge as much as 16 billion euros in guarantees for the vehicle, which will also include 5 billion euros from the European Investment Bank, the officials said. Loans, lending guarantees and stakes in equity and debt will be part of its toolbox, with the goal to jumpstart private risk-taking so that stalled projects can get off the ground.

Juncker’s investment plan aims to combine EU resources and regulatory changes “to crowd in more private investment in order to make real investments a reality,” EU Vice President Jyrki Katainen said on Nov. 14 in Bratislava. The plan is one element of the EU’s economic strategy and “not a magic wand with which we will be able to miraculously invest ourselves out of a difficult economic climate,” he said.

Europe is struggling to spur economic growth as it emerges only slowly from waves of crisis. The 18-nation euro area is forecast to see growth of just 0.8 percent this year, according to EU forecasts, while the region’s unemployment rate of 11.5 percent masks rates of about 25 percent in Greece and in Spain.

The question is where will the money come from? Who will finance such grandiose plans? And by how?

Analyst David Stockman aptly explains why such political turning lead into gold is just another debt financed flimflam or a “Keynesian paint-by-the numbers” “shell game” (bold mine) [bold mine, italic original]

Are they kidding? Thanks to the Draghi Put (“whatever it takes”) and the hedge fund gamblers who have gone all-in front running the promised ECB bond-buying campaign, this very morning the corrupt and bankrupt government of Spain can borrow all the money it could possibly need for infrastructure at hardly 2.0% for ten years. And any healthy German exporter or machinery maker can borrow at a small spread off the German 10-year bond which is trading at 73 basis points. For all intents and purposes, sovereigns of any stripe and reasonably healthy businesses in most parts of Europe can access capital at central bank repressed rates which are tantamount to free money.

And, yet, these fools want to bring coals to Newcastle. Well, its actually worse than that because not only does Newcastle not need any coal, but the impending “Juncker Plan” doesn’t include any new coal, anyway!

In fact, not a penny of the $400 billion is new EU cash: Its all about leverage and sleight-of-hand. Thus, having apparently failed to notice that most of the sovereigns which comprise the EU are already bankrupt, the Brussels bureaucrats plan to conjure this new “stimulus” money at a 15:1 leverage ratio. That is to say, the actual “capital” under-pinning approximately $375 billion in new EU borrowings amounts to only $26 billion.

But wait. The EU is self-evidently broke—that’s why its dunning Mr. Cameron and even its Greek supplicants for back taxes—so where is it going to get the $26 billion of “capital”? Needless to say, an empty treasury has never stopped Keynesian bureaucrats from dispensing the magic elixir of “stimulus” money.

Thus, it turns out that $20 billion of the Juncker Plan “capital” will consist of member state “guarantees”, not cash in hand. And the remaining $6 billion will consist of already existing European Investment Bank (EIB) funds—–money that is available only because the EIB’s  balance sheet is also “guaranteed” by the same bankrupt member-states which don’t have another nickel to send to Brussels in the first place.

This is called a circle jerk in less polite company. And a pointless one at that.

According to the attached Bloomberg story, the $400 billion pot of stimulus will be used for “seeding investment in infrastructure”  and “to share the risks of new projects with private investors”.

Let’s see.  Can even the duplicitous apparatchiks in Brussels believe that the continent is parched for public infrastructure and that this explains Europe’s stagnation? After all, the peripheral countries are not only buried in debt, but also have been inundated over the past two decades with every manner of highways, public transit and other public facilities that EU funds and their own bloated government budgets could buy.

Spain has world class roads going everywhere on the Peninsula, for example, but its problem is want of loaded trucks to utilize them. The same is true in Italy, which has splendid roads, rails, airports and seaports from the Alps to the tip of the boot, but a private economy that is suffocating in taxes, regulation and corruption. Nor can it be gainsaid that France’s high-speed rail system, Germany’s autobahns or Holland’s canals and dykes have been neglected.

Indeed, to a substantial degree Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is owing to the fact that under the tutelage of its Keynesian policy apparatus, it has been absolutely profligate in building infrastructure owned by the public or subsidized in behalf of crony capitalist “partners”. So why at this late stage of the game does Brussels feel compelled to launch a giant financial shell game designed to generate even more unaffordable infrastructure?

The same question holds for private investment. The very idea that the European economies are “under-invested” in private production capacity is truly laughable. What actually occurred after the mid-1990s, as the single market and single currency went into full swing, was a tsunami of private borrowing and investment. 

Between 1996 and 2011, for example, euro bank loans to the private sector nearly tripled, rising at a 7.0% compound rate and leaping from 55% of GDP to 95% during the period. Nor does that include the additional trillions which were raised in the euro and dollar bond markets by business’ located in the EC.

The plateauing since then is self-evidently not owing to the scarcity of capital or borrowers being rationed out of the market by punitively high interest rates. No, the problem is that there are few credit worthy borrowers left who actually need funds for projects that will generate profitable returns.

In short, the “Juncker Plan” is just another installment of the state-driven financialization that has been 180 degrees off-target, and has actually compounded Europe’s economic malaise. The real problem is statist economics—-that is, welfare state subsidies for inefficiency and non-production, dirigisme and financialization.

Bottom line: Government debt financed "investment" guarantees are merely redistribution of resources for the benefit of political authorities and their cronies at the cost of the taxpayer. It is growth for the political institutions and their cronies and hardly for the economy.