The Two Faces of Japan’s November Machinery Order Report

The mainstream sees the November Japanese Machinery Order report as  “positive”

For instance, this CNBC headline says “Japan November core machinery orders rise 1.3% on month” (bold mine)

Japan's core machinery orders rose a smaller-than-expected 1.3 percent in November from the previous month, government data showed on Thursday, suggesting capital expenditure among manufacturers could weaken.

The rise in core orders, which exclude those of ships and electric power utilities, compared with a 5.0 percent rise forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. It followed a 6.4 percent decline in October, the Cabinet Office data showed.

Compared with a year earlier, core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, fell 14.6 percent, against the median estimate of a 5.8 percent annual decline. The Cabinet Office lowered its assessment of machinery orders, saying the recovery is showing signs of stalling.

Japan’s Machinery Order based on Tradingeconomics.com charts

On the other hand the Zero Hedge reports a big slump on the same report: (bold original)

So much for that short-lived hope-fest that Abenomics was not a total and utter disaster. Japan Machinery Orders (excluding -rather ironically- volatile orders) plunged 14.6% Year-over-Year in November (missing expectations of a 6.3% drop) for the biggest fall since Nov 2009

What’s the difference? The framing.

Both looks at the same report but the point of emphasis differs. 

The mainstream sees the ‘positive’ the month on month change. On the other hand, the Zero hedge accentuates on the ‘negative’ or the year on year change.

What you see depends on where you stand.

But observe that in the mainstream report above, the 14.6% plunge in core orders was also reported, except that this has been buried in the third paragraph 

Yet here is the official data and report from Japan’s Cabinet  office: (bold mine)

-The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan decreased by 10.4% in November from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

-Private-sector machinery orders, excluding volatile ones for ships and those from electric power companies, increased a seasonally adjusted by 1.3% in November.

Notice of the omission of the total value of machinery orders? 

Yet Japan’s Cabinet office illustrated the collapsing total value of machinery orders, as well as, the private sector segment of the machinery orders statistics.

Now which of the two sources of information looks more like propaganda: the mainstream or the contrarian?