Thursday, May 14, 2015

Fed Atlanta's GDP Now Predicts 2Q US GDP at only .7%!

Wow. All the excitement about the recent payroll growth appears to have failed to lift the Fed Atlanta's real time forecast of the US GDP

Here is the Federal Reserve of Atlanta (as of May 13) [bold mine]
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on May 13, down slightly from 0.8 percent on May 5. The nowcast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent following this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. 



The disparity between consensus and GDPNOW remains wide, but the gap has been narrowing.

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