Have Record High COVID-19 Cases Been Due to Economic Reopening?

 

The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it. Power is what all messiahs really seek: not the chance to serve—Henry L Mencken 

 

In this issue 

 

Have Record High COVID-19 Cases Been Due to Economic Reopening?  

I. Has the Reopening of the Economy Caused a Record Surge in Covid-19 Cases? Mobility Data says No! 

II. Vaccine Skepticism Equals Vaccine Optimism? 

III. Second Wave or Case Spike? 

IV. Total Deaths Lower in 2020! COVID-19 Deaths Not Even in the Top 5 Causes of Deaths! 

 

Have Record High COVID-19 Cases Been Due to Economic Reopening?  

 

I. Has the Reopening of the Economy Caused a Record Surge in Covid-19 Cases? Mobility Data says No! 

 

Reported daily cases of COVID-19 hit an all-time high this week. 

 

As such, the blame game begins. 

 

From GMA News (March 16): Health Secretary Francisco Duque III pointed to increased mobility due to easing restrictions as a likely factor in the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, saying that it is still not known whether the presence of variants may also be behind the virus spike. 

 

The mobility data from Apple, Waze, and Google provides an overview of the correlation between changes in mobility and daily COVID-19 cases.  

  

Since the transition to GCQ in June 2020 coincided with the surge in daily cases, this supported the notion that increased mobility was responsible for COVID’s first wave.  

 

But how true is this today? 

 

The three private-sector mobility indicators unanimously exhibit marginal improvements in the 1Q of 2021 compared to the 4Q with cases of exceptions.  

 

Simply put, 1Q mobility levels have barely improved compared to the 4Q. 

 

In fact, instead of loosening up, the Our World In Data’s stringency index representing the “number and strictness of government policies” showed stepped-up rigidity in implementing health protocols (political repression) in early 2021. 

 

Hence, the allegation that an economic reopening or a loosening represented the cause of the recent spikes stand on flimsy grounds. 

 

II. Vaccine Skepticism Equals Vaccine Optimism? 

 

 

Figure 1 

 

 

Figure 2 

In the meantime, the Wealth Health Organization (WHO) attributed this surge to vaccine optimism.  

 

From the CNN (March 19): Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, WHO Representative to the Philippines, calls it “vaccine optimism.” After more than a year of quarantine restrictions, the vaccine rollout sparked “some optimism that finally we are going to see light in the end of the tunnel,” he said in an online media briefing. “Small relaxation of people mingling more, going out more but that little bit contributes to the possibility of the virus transmitting and increasing in transmission,” Abeyasinghe said, noting that it is made possible by relaxed community quarantine measures. 

 

Curiously, how can there be “vaccine optimism” when surveys from Pulse Asia and OCTA said that a significant majority of denizens are unwilling to get inoculated with it?  

 

The unfortunate experience with Dengvaxia could have caused such reluctance.  

 

Or perhaps the news of adverse effects from vaccines may have contributed to it.  For instance, several nations suspended the use of AstraZeneca vaccine because of its association with rare blood clots. 

 

Moreover, the odds from side-effects of a vaccine appear to be greater than the reported fatality rate from COVID-19 (around 2%). 

 

From the Inquirer (March 19): Some 7,469 or 3.11 percent of 240,297 health workers who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 reported experiencing adverse effects following immunization (AEFI), Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Director General Eric Domingo said Thursday. 

 

If adverse events including death could be an issue bigger than deaths from Covid-19, why blame the public for their reluctance? 

 

Worst, considering how vaccines have been highly politicized, reported statistics may not be accurate. 

 

From the Inquirer (March 17): The death of a local healthcare worker who recently received a vaccine for COVID-19 was caused by the coronavirus disease and not the vaccine, the Department of Health (DOH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Thursday. 

 

Huh? Even if this report is true, what happened to the touted effectiveness of the vaccine? 

 

Besides, a report suggests that “multiple variants can escape vaccines”.  

 

If the current crop of mRNA vaccines are ineffective against multiple variants, can people be blamed for refusing to take the risk of inoculation? 

 

Nevertheless, like blaming mobility, the idea that vaccine optimism caused the record surge in the virus is barely supported by the public's skepticism of vaccines.  

 

In any event, rationalizations represent a misdiagnosis. 

 

III. Second Wave or Case Spike? 

 

Also, interestingly, the WHO claimed that the current surge in caseloads represents a spike and not a second wave. 

 

From the Inquirer (March 10): The increase in COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, particularly in Metro Manila, cannot be considered a second wave of coronavirus infections, as the country has yet to slow down the first wave, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.
 

Again, as of March 20, daily caseloads hit a fresh record high of 7,999. QED. 

 

If misperceptions have beset politicians, the DoH, WHO, and so-called experts on the cause and effects of the rocketing cases of COVID-19 and vaccines, why should we expect a sound response?  

  

In reality, because mobility serves as a politically convenient pretext for the spread of COVID-19, resonant of 2020, the political solution is to panic. 

 

Thus, the National Government re-imposed curfews in the metropolis, limited inbound passengers from air travel, closed several industries while reducing social activities and operations for many industries including the government, and lastly, implemented ‘granular’ lockdowns.  

 

In short, instead of GCQ and MECQ, they took a middle position, a Soft ECQ.  

 

Populist policies rules. Tradeoffs be damned! 

 

As stated before, we are witnessing authorities stumble from one error to another. 

 

Meanwhile, on ethical grounds, the UN chided the local authorities for including minors in the lockdown. 

 

 Figure 3 

From the GMA News (March 19): Prohibiting minors from going outside for two weeks to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be considered an infringement of children’s rights, the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) said Friday. 

 

According to the Department of Health data, minors have been the least affected in cases, and naturally, in deaths. The counterview is that minors may infect the vulnerable. Hogwash.  

 

Given the youthful national demographic construct, caseloads are found MOSTLY on the age group capable of withstanding COVID-19 (age 20-39). But rigorous restrictions on movements of such age groups, accounting for the core of the employment force, will paralyze the people and annihilate the economy.  

  

We hear a lot about experts touting the simplistically supposed economic benefits of demographic dividends, right?  With the national median age at 25.7, according to worldometer.info, why shouldn’t the same advantage apply against the pandemic? The DOH data manifests this force in action, vividly.  

 

In any event, instead of protecting the public from the pandemic, record cases have marked the medical gulag’s first anniversary.  

 

Incredible, isn’t it? 

 

Insanity, said Albert Einstein, is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Are we not seeing the same? 

 

Or have surging cases been designed to coax the public to vaccinate for the benefit of some interest groups? 

 

IV. Total Deaths Lower in 2020! COVID-19 Deaths Not Even in the Top 5 Causes of Deaths! 

 

Finally, related to the above, despite the pandemic, do you know that registered deaths had been significantly LOWER from January to November 2020 compared to the same period a year ago? 

 

From the Philippine Statistics Authority PSA (January 5, 2021): The preliminary number of registered deaths from January to November 2020 reached 515,056, lower than the total registered deaths of 568,552 in the same period in 2019.  While registered monthly deaths in 2020 were lower than their respective months in the previous year, July and August already recorded higher deaths at 53,919 (8.9% growth) and 55,490 (10.4% growth), respectively.   

 

 

Figure 4 

 

Again, despite COVID-19, the 11-month registered death in 2020 was lower by 9.4%! 

 

Also, the peak of COVID-19 deaths occurred in September 2020 even as total deaths reported declined year-on-year!   

 

So while the nation shuddered over the prospects of Covid-19 induced fatalities, total deaths, inclusive of COVID-19 cases, were actually down in 2020! 

 

And do you know that COVID-19 wasn’t even in the top five causes of death in 2020? 

 

From the PSA (March 16, 2021): The top three causes of death in the country in 2020 were ischaemic heart diseases, neoplasms, and cerebrovascular diseases. Incidentally, these were also the leading causes of death in 2019…Registered deaths due to COVID-19 accounted for a total of 27,967 deaths or 4.9 percent of the total registered deaths in 2020. By classification, COVID-19 with virus not identified was the seventh leading cause of death in the country with 19.8 thousand cases or 3.4 percent of the total deaths in 2020. Meanwhile, registered deaths due to COVID-19 with virus identified accounted for 8.2 thousand or 1.4 percent of the total deaths in 2020, pushing its rank to number 16. 

 

The DoH pushed back on the PSA’s statistics. 

 

From the GMA News (March 18): Preliminary figures from the PSA showed a total of 27,967 deaths due to COVID-19 as of December 2020, with “COVID-19 with virus identified” accounting for 8,209 cases. A total of 19,758 deaths were attributed to “COVID-19 virus not identified.” The DOH, meanwhile, reported 9,244 deaths as of December 31. Asked for an explanation, DOH Epidemiology Bureau director Alethea de Guzman said the department only includes confirmed COVID-19 deaths in its tally. “We’re only reporting the confirmed cases who became fatalities versus PSA which is reporting all the deaths which have been diagnosed by a physician as having either suspect, probable, or confirmed COVID [case],” she said in an online briefing. De Guzman said the DOH is also monitoring deaths among suspect and probable cases. Heart diseases, neoplasms, and cerebrovascular diseases remain the three leading causes of death in the Philippines, according to the PSA. Suicide deaths rose 26% to 3,529 cases last year from 2,808 in 2019. 

 

Why such informational dissonance? 

  

Has the PSA been padding up the death rates to magnify the lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic to justify the imposition of the medical gulag? Or, has the DoH been understating their statistics to benefit the leadership’s political capital? Who between them is right? Or could both be wrong? 

  

Partisans may argue that the lockdowns worked to limit death rates but such a view is anchored on heuristic or short-term thinking.  

 

It is easy to foresee that death rates are likely to soar in the future from unhealthy lifestyles brought about by the loss or reduced income because the affected will see a reduction in access to healthcare services, medicine, and immune system boosting supplements by the affected entities, while simultaneously, the lockdown socialism may affect psychological or mental health (e.g. surging suicide rates) which may spread to impact physical dimensions.  

 

By instilling fear, the public has developed an aversion to visiting health institutions, while the medical personnel resists dispensing procedures on them. 

 

From the Philstar (March 17) “The lack of clinic check-ups, the lack of attendance of doctors because they too cannot go to work created right now a scenario in which cardiovascular disorders are increasing,” said Anthony Leachon, an infectious disease doctor and former adviser to the National Task Force Against COVID-19. 

 

Therefore, the opportunity costs of the obsession/fixation over COVID-19 translate to the needless increases of other diseases, and their subsequent ramifications (reduced lifespan).  

 

Not only have the citizenry been stripped of their civil liberties that have resulted in a massive devaluation of the standard of living, but unhealthy lifestyles from these will likewise lead to decreases in lifespans overtime. 

 

Remember, the past lockdowns resulted in massive disruptions in the intertwined networks of supply chains that translated to capital consumption and scuttled demand, presently being manifested by the record recession, rising street prices and surging Treasury yields. 

  

Because all actions have consequences, the current restrictions will compound further on the imbalances shaped by last year's policies and on the maladjustments caused by the previous easy money policies from the BSP. 

 

The unwarranted imposition of social repression magnifies not only the risks of an economic/financial crisis but also sow the seeds of a social crisis.