Showing posts with label Use of Knowledge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Use of Knowledge. Show all posts

Friday, June 01, 2012

Austrian Capital Theory and the Market Process

The beauty of Austrian economics is of its emphasis on the nitty-gritty of the market process. And capital theory, which has largely ignored by the mainstream, plays a sine qua non role in the market process

Professor Peter Lewin eloquently discusses the Austrian Capital Theory at the Freeman Online (outside titles, all bold emphasis are mine; green brackets my comments)

The Austrian Theory

The best known Austrian capital theorist was Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, though his teacher Carl Menger is the one who got the ball rolling, providing the central idea that Böhm-Bawerk elaborated. Böhm-Bawerk produced three volumes dedicated to the study of capital and interest, making the Austrian theory of capital his best-known theoretical contribution. He provided a detailed account of the fundamentals of capitalistic production. Later contributors include Hayek, Ludwig Lachmann, and Israel Kirzner. They added to and enriched Böhm-Bawerk’s account in crucial ways. The legacy we now have is a rich tapestry that accords amazingly well with the nature of production in the digital information age. Some current contributors along these lines include Peter Klein, Nicolai Foss, Howard Baetjer, and me.

The Austrians emphasize that production takes time: The more indirect it is, the more “time” it takes. Production today is much more “roundabout” (Böhm-Bawerk’s term) than older, more rudimentary production processes. Rather than picking fruit in our backyard and eating it, most of us today get it from fruit farms that use complex picking, sorting, and packing machinery to process carefully engineered fruits. Consider the amount of “time” (for example in “people-hours”) involved in setting up and assembling all the pieces of this complex production process from scratch—from before the manufacture of the machines and so on. This gives us some idea of what is meant by production methods that are “roundabout.”

(The scare quotes around time are used because in fact there is no perfectly rigorous way to define the length of a production process in purely physical terms. But, intuitively, what is being asserted is that doing things in a more complicated, specialized way is more difficult; loosely speaking it takes more “time” because it is more “roundabout,” more indirect.)

More Roundabout Production

Through countless self-interested individual production decisions, we have adopted more roundabout methods of production because they are more productive—they add more value—than less roundabout methods. Were this not the case, they would not be deemed worth the sacrifice and effort of the “time” involved—and would be abandoned in favor of more direct production methods. What are at work here are the benefits of specialization—the division of labor to which Adam Smith referred. Modern economies comprise complex, specialized processes in which the many steps necessary to produce any product are connected in a sequentially specific network—some things have to be done before others. There is a time structure to the capital structure.

[my comment business people or entrepreneurs specialize on the products and services they provide and the markets they sell into]

This intricate time structure is partially organized, partially spontaneous (organic). Every production process is the result of some multiperiod plan. Entrepreneurs envision the possibility of providing (new, improved, cheaper) products to consumers whose expenditure on them will be more than sufficient to cover the cost of producing them. In pursuit of this vision the entrepreneur plans to assemble the necessary capital items in a synergistic combination. These capital combinations are structurally composed modules that are the ingredients of the industry-wide or economy-wide capital structure. The latter is the result then of the dynamic interaction of multiple entrepreneurial plans in the marketplace; it is what constitutes the market process. Some plans will prove more successful than others, some will have to be modified to some degree, some will fail. What emerges is a structure that is not planned by anyone in its totality but is the result of many individual actions in the pursuit of profit. It is an unplanned structure that has a logic, a coherence, to it. It was not designed, and could not have been designed, by any human mind or committee of minds. Thinking that it is possible to design such a structure or even to micromanage it with macroeconomic policy is a fatal conceit.

[my comment:

The term “economy” has truly been a misrepresentation.

In the real world, there are millions of heterogeneous interactions, distinctive moving parts, and complex and variegated supply chains, which means commercial activities represent mass spontaneity of people’s actions. They are not centrally organized actions as the word “economy” projects.

Think of it, does the government tell you whom to sell? Does the government dictate upon you on what (and how many) to produce or what services to provide? Does the government tell you which stock to buy or which investment to take?

If none of this applies, then why the heck, the popular impression that government “runs the economy”? Well the answer is that these have long been impressed upon to us by current political institutions meant to ensure our docility to our political masters]

The division of labor reflected by the capital structure is based on a division of knowledge. Within and across firms specialized tasks are accomplished by those who know best how to accomplish them. Such localized, often unconscious, knowledge could not be communicated to or collected by centralized decision-makers. The market process is responsible not only for discovering who should do what and how, but also how to organize it so that those best able to make decisions are motivated to do so. In other words, incentives and knowledge considerations tend to get balanced spontaneously in a way that could not be planned on a grand scale. The boundaries of firms expand and contract, and new forms of organization evolve. This too is part of the capital structure broadly understood.

[my comments:

Statistics signify as information based on aggregates. They do not account for the “knowledge of circumstances” that are “dispersed” “incomplete” or often “contradictory knowledge” or knowledge why people people have chosen through “incentives” to take such actions. Knowledge acquired from interpreting statistics constitute as presumptions and are manipulable to suit veiled agendas.

Statistics and econometrics are instruments mainly used to bamboozle or to overwhelm on the ignorant and the gullible public of the supposed omniscience of central planners. The only thing political actors know is to gorge and lavishly spend on other people’s money, as well as to exercise control over the population under the cover of the farcical “social justice”].

Division of Knowledge

In addition, the heterogeneous capital goods that make up the cellular capital combinations also reflect the division of knowledge. Capital goods (like specialized machines) are employed because they “know” how to do certain important things; they embody the knowledge of their designers about how to perform the tasks for which they were designed. The entire production structure is thus based on an incredibly intricate extended division of knowledge, such knowledge being spread across its multiple physical and human capital components. Modern production management is more than ever knowledge management, whether involving human beings or machines—the key difference being that the latter can be owned and require no incentives to motivate their production, while the former depend on “relationships” but possess initiative and judgment in a way that machines do not.

The foregoing provides the barest account of the rich legacy of Austrian capital theory, but it should be sufficient to communicate the essential differences between the Austrian view of the economy and that of other schools of thought. For Austrians the whole macroeconomic approach is problematic, involving, as it does, the use of gross aggregrates as targets for policy manipulation—aggregates like the economy’s “capital stock.” For Austrians there is no “capital stock.” Any attempt to aggregate the multitude of diverse capital items involved in production into a single number is bound to result in a meaningless outcome: a number devoid of significance. Similarly the total of investment spending does not reflect in any accurate way the addition to value that can be produced by this “capital stock.” The values of capital goods and of capital combinations, or of the businesses in which they are employed, are determined only as the market process unfolds over time. They are based on the expectations of the entrepreneurs who hire them, and these expectations are diverse and often inconsistent. Not all of them will prove correct—indeed most will be, at least to some degree, proven false. Basing macroeconomic policy on an aggregate of values for assembled capital items as recorded or estimated at one point in time would seem to be a fool’s errand. What do the policymakers know that the entrepreneurs involved in the micro aspects of production do not?

[my comment:

Macro economics has truly been about heuristics and or of our innate biases that have been embellished by mathematical formalism than about law of scarcity and opportunity costs or about economic reality.

Macro economics understates the ‘economic’ value provided by the market process.

On the other hand, macro economics overstates the illusion of hydraulically driven “economy”.]

Capital and Employment

The folly is compounded by connecting capital and investment aggregates to total employment under the assumption that stimulating the former will stimulate the latter. Such an assumption ignores the heterogeneity and structural nature of both capital and labor (human capital). Simply boosting expenditure on any kind of production will not guarantee the employment of people without jobs. How else to explain that our current economy is characterized by both sizeable unemployment numbers and job vacancies? Their coexistence is a result of a structural mismatch: The structure (that is, the pattern of skills) of the unemployed does not match those required to be able to work with the specific capital items that are currently unemployed.

In fact the current enduring recession is basically structural in nature. It is the bust of a credit-induced boom-bust cycle, augmented by far-reaching production-distorting regulation. The Austrian theory of the business cycle was developed first by Ludwig von Mises, combining insights from the Austrian theory of capital with the nature of modern central-bank-led monetary policy. The theory was later used, with some differences, by Hayek in his debates with Keynes. Over the years its popularity and acceptance have waxed and waned, but it appears to be highly relevant to our current situation.

[my comment:

The market process represents the immensely intertwined and deeply interdependent relationships of methodological individualism, profit-loss tradeoffs, capital theory, consumer sovereignty, property rights, coordination-discoordination of resource allocation, division of labor, specialization and roundabout production, division of knowledge, entrepreneurship, speculation, voluntary exchange, pricing system, spontaneous order, rule of law, market institutions and everything else under the capitalistic or classical liberalism order.

Whereas boom bust cycles signify as symptoms of imbalances brought upon by government inflationism, as well as, distortions emergent or as consequence from various production regulations and mandated proscriptions]

Glancing at the political prescriptions for today’s crisis management, one would notice that “capital” for the mainstream represents a homogenous lump called currency. Print money and everything is supposedly solved. Unfortunately after trillions of printed money, the global crisis has been worsening instead of abating.

Yet little is understood that money is NOT wealth, but a medium of exchange.

And wealth is about purchasing power of money. From this we understand that popular prescriptions of money printing have been economically unrealistic or unfeasible, and therefore, are bound for failure.Worst they are redistributive which favors political actors and their clients (the cronies).

It is not what gullible masses think that matters, rather it is the limitations of economic reality. That’s what Austrian Capital Theory talks about.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Quote of the Day: Knowledge Plus Inequality Equals Progress

The rapid economic advance that we have come to expect seems in large measure to be the result of this inequality and to be impossible without it. Progress at such a fast rate cannot proceed on a uniform front but must take place in echelon fashion, with some far ahead of the rest. The reason for this is concealed by our habit of regarding economic progress chiefly as an accumulation of ever greater quantities of goods and equipment. But the rise of our standard of life is due at least as much to an increase in knowledge which enables us not merely to consume more of the same things but to use different things, and often things we did not even know before. And though the growth of income depends in part on the accumulation of capital, more probably depends on our learning to use our resources more effectively and for new purposes.

The growth of knowledge is of such special importance because, while the material resources will always remain scarce and will have to be reserved for limited purposes, the users of new knowledge (where we do not make them artificially scarce by patents of monopoly) are unrestricted. Knowledge, once achieved, becomes gratuitously available for the benefit of all. It is through this free gift of the knowledge acquired by the experiments of some members of society that general progress is made possible, that the achievements of those who have gone before facilitate the advance of those who follow.

That’s from the great Friedrich von Hayek in the Constitution of Liberty.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Quote of the Day: Is Expertise Posture or Knowledge?

Another thought provoking article from my favorite marketing guru Seth Godin [bold emphasis mine]

What I discovered, though, was that domain knowledge, edge to edge knowledge of a field, was incredibly valuable. It helped me understand where the edges were, and it gave me the confidence to be selective, to develop a taxonomy, to see what was going on.

As the deluge of information grows and choices continue to widen (there's no way I could even attempt to cover science fiction from scratch today, for example), it's easy to forget the benefits of acquiring this sort of (mostly) complete understanding in a field. I'm not even sure it matters which field you pick.

Expertise is a posture as much as it is a volume of knowledge.

Reading every single trade journal, for example, or understanding the marketing, engineering and sales of your field--there are countless ways to go deep instead of merely paying lip service to the current flavor of the moment.

To me, the importance of domain knowledge (specialized) is especially relevant for those in the financial markets (or in stock markets).

Instead of acquiring the necessary ‘signals’ that could deliver the ‘edge to edge knowledge’, most get lost in the din or cacophony of ‘noises’, which Mr. Godin describes as the “current flavor of the moment”.

The latter can be characterized by the pervasive use or application of cognitive biases and logical fallacies, except that they are masqueraded in numerical or technical methodologies which are completely dependent on past or historical activities or on some presupposed constants which operates on aggregated formulas.

Popular or consensus wisdom usually represents what Black Swan theorist and author Nassim Taleb calls as the negative knowledge (wrong and doesn't work).

For many, thus, expertise signify more as social signaling (posturing or seeking social acceptance) and or “telling people what they want to hear” but predicated on certain technically based paradigms which produces an aura of supposed superiority rather than representative of the true domain knowledge.

We should learn how to separate the proverbial “wheat from the chaff”

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Harvard’s Greg Mankiw Channels F.A. Hayek

It’s rare to see experts of high stature exhibit meekness.

Harvard Professor and former chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors Greg Mankiw writing in a New York Times column channels F.A. Hayek. (pointer to Professor Russ Roberts) [bold emphasis mine]

AFTER more than a quarter-century as a professional economist, I have a confession to make: There is a lot I don’t know about the economy. Indeed, the area of economics where I have devoted most of my energy and attention — the ups and downs of the business cycle — is where I find myself most often confronting important questions without obvious answers.

Now, if you follow economic commentary in the newspapers or the blogosphere, you have probably not run into many humble economists. By its nature, punditry craves attention, which is easier to attract with certainties than with equivocation.

But that certitude reflects bravado more often than true knowledge.

This exactly is the knowledge problem as Hayek pointed out long ago, which I keep talking about in this space.

F. A. Hayek in The Use of Knowledge in Society wrote, (bold emphasis mine)

The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

My salute to Mr. Mankiw.

Blessed are the meek for they shall inherit the earth.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Social Media Is Hayek’s Knowledge Theory At Work

Anyone who says or writes about social media and claims that today’s digital age is NOT about or related to Hayek’s Knowledge theory is dead wrong. They are either misrepresenting Hayek or have not read Hayek but has the chutzpah to make unfounded derogatory remarks.

The information age (third wave) is very much about the growing realization of Hayek’s Knowledge theory.

Proof?

Friedrich von Hayek wrote, (bold emphasis mine)

The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

Well here is how technology enabled information gathering has been benefiting businesses, according to the New York Times, (bold highlights mine)

INFORMATION overload is a headache for individuals and a huge challenge for businesses. Companies are swimming, if not drowning, in wave after wave of data — from increasingly sophisticated computer tracking of shipments, sales, suppliers and customers, as well as e-mail, Web traffic and social-network comments. These Internet-era technologies, by one estimate, are doubling the quantity of business data every 1.2 years.

Yet the data explosion is also an enormous opportunity. In a modern economy, information should be the prime asset — the raw material of new products and services, smarter decisions, competitive advantage for companies, and greater growth and productivity.

Is there any real evidence of a “data payoff” across the corporate world? It has taken a while, but new research led by Erik Brynjolfsson, an economist at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, suggests that the beginnings are now visible.

Mr. Brynjolfsson and his colleagues, Lorin Hitt, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and Heekyung Kim, a graduate student at M.I.T., studied 179 large companies. Those that adopted “data-driven decision making” achieved productivity that was 5 to 6 percent higher than could be explained by other factors, including how much the companies invested in technology, the researchers said.

In the study, based on a survey and follow-up interviews, data-driven decision making was defined not only by collecting data, but also by how it is used — or not — in making crucial decisions, like whether to create a new product or service. The central distinction, according to Mr. Brynjolfsson, is between decisions based mainly on “data and analysis” and on the traditional management arts of “experience and intuition.”

Essentially this means that businesses don’t rely on top down flow of information. Instead, supported by the rapidly advancing computing capacity of the current generation of computers, data gathering has been decentralized—“increasingly sophisticated computer tracking of shipments, sales, suppliers and customers, as well as e-mail, Web traffic and social-network comments”—which operates on real time basis that allows the businesses to rapidly store and process data “how it is used” and thus employ a “data-driven decision making”

Not Hayek?

More from the late great Hayek,

If we can agree that the economic problem of society is mainly one of rapid adaptation to changes in the particular circumstances of time and place, it would seem to follow that the ultimate decisions must be left to the people who are familiar with these circumstances, who know directly of the relevant changes and of the resources immediately available to meet them. We cannot expect that this problem will be solved by first communicating all this knowledge to a central board which, after integrating all knowledge, issues its orders. We must solve it by some form of decentralization. But this answers only part of our problem. We need decentralization because only thus can we insure that the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place will be promptly used. But the "man on the spot" cannot decide solely on the basis of his limited but intimate knowledge of the facts of his immediate surroundings. There still remains the problem of communicating to him such further information as he needs to fit his decisions into the whole pattern of changes of the larger economic system.

Again Hayek’s Knowledge Theory extrapolated in today’s social media setting, from the New York Times anew (bold emphasis mine)

STILL, the software industry is making a big bet that the data-driven decision making described in Mr. Brynjolfsson’s research is the wave of the future. The drive to help companies find meaningful patterns in the data that engulfs them has created a fast-growing industry in what is known as “business intelligence” or “analytics” software and services. Major technology companies — I.B.M., Oracle, SAP and Microsoft — have collectively spent more than $25 billion buying up specialist companies in the field.

Well when Hayek said “further information as he needs to fit his decisions into the whole pattern of changes”, applied in today’s lingo they are called “business intelligence” or “analytics” software and services.

Get it? This is very much Hayek’s theory at work.

Experts who pretend that they know, don’t really know.

The presume superior knowledge out of self importance and deceptive conceit by relying on false theories and flawed models from which they extrapolate as foundations for their preferred political theory. (Let them bet on markets and see how they can predict them with consistency. I'll bet they'll be consistently wrong)

Again as Hayek once wrote,

All political theories assume, of course, that most individuals are very ignorant. Those who plead for liberty differ from the rest in that they include among the ignorant themselves as well as the wisest.

And that’s where the Hayek and statists camp differ. It’s in the admission of the knowledge problem.

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Phisix and ASEAN Equities: The Tide Has Turned To Favor The Bulls!

A good trader has to have three things: a chronic inability to accept things at face value, to feel continuously unsettled, and to have humility. -Michael Steinhardt, American investor and philanthropist
The tide must have turned immensely to favor the bulls.
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Figure 1: Bloomberg: Jumpstarting the ASEAN Equity Markets
ASEAN markets appear to have been jumpstarted.
We have been repeatedly pounding on the table saying that this turnaround was about to happen. The bulls have been knocking on the door, but few had the grit to pay heed.
And that the previous weakness was not a manifestation of an inflection point nor was it representative of a reversal back to the bear market days. Instead, such market infirmities accounted for as a normal countercyclical process called profit-taking. The basic market lesson is that trends do not move in a straight line.
Yet the profit taking theme seemed unacceptable for the consensus. First because it is boring stuff. And second, because it would seem unworthy of conversations. Part of social conformity requires contemporaneous expressions. And unstylish themes don’t fit such bill.
Social signalling is prioritized more than the relevance of the returns on investments.
Moreover, because people’s intuitive desire is for the graphic, the controversial and the sensational, mainstream experts fed on this false attribution by fixating on the current exogenous factors—the political crisis in Middle East and Africa and Japan’s triple whammy calamity—which they interpreted as having driven markets.
Never mind if evidences hardly supported such assertions, the important thing was to blabber on what seemed fashionable and conversational.
Hardly anyone appear to realize that applying mental shortcuts or heuristics (such as available bias) draped with technical gobbledygook, which would look good from the outside or from the surface, are hardly the pertinent factors when accounting for real investment returns.
In reality, risks and uncertainties stare at our faces at every moment of our lives. Yet, it is just a matter of managing the diversified degree of risk-uncertainty environment that makes the difference. The proverbial wheat is, thus, separated from the chaff.
And as predicted, markets have gradually been digesting on the uncertainty-risk environment from these events. The constant stream of variable, localized, fragmented and frequently contradictory information, which allows markets to discount[1] the uncertainty-risk factor[2], has apparently reduced the perception of the event risk.
The aesthetics of the marketplace is the scintillating evidence of the perpetual flow of the great F. A. Hayek’s description of knowledge[3] and its indispensible role in breathing life to the marketplace via the pricing mechanism and the coordination and discoordination process underpinning the dynamism of prices.
We are now in the process of being vindicated anew!



[3] Hayek, Friedrich von The Use of Knowledge in Society, econolib.org, 1945

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Markets Operate Under The Hayekian Knowledge Framework

Markets, acting on and coordinated by information, are likewise distinct, dispersed and localized.

Winnie Phua of Matthews International Capital Management, LLC writes about the recent closure of the popular Barbie in China, (bold highlights mine)

The sudden closure of the Barbie store left many consumers baffled. The U.S. toy maker has stated that it is reorganizing its China strategy. Others, however, argue that the store is closing because Barbie’s classic western appeal has not caught on in China where girls tend to prefer cute animated characters, such as Hello Kitty, over a womanly life-like doll. Barbie’s price point (US$15 to US$30) has also been criticized as too high, particularly for a toy with limited brand recognition or nostalgic factor for parents who hold the purse strings. Other similar dolls can be purchased online with complete wardrobe sets for as little as US$8.

Mattel’s closure of the store highlights the fact that brand power enjoyed by well-known brands in the West may not always guarantee their success in the East. It also reiterates the importance of localizing products and services when expanding in new markets. Home Depot, the U.S. retailer of home improvement and construction products, for example, entered China in 2006 but has been shuttering stores due to low demand from local residents. The “Do-it-Yourself (DIY)” concept apparently has not resonated well with Chinese consumers as migrant laborers offer easily available and cheap construction needs for many urban residents.

This reminds me of the great Friedrich von Hayek who wrote of the "The Use of Knowledge in Society" (bold highlights mine)

The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

Bottom line: Today’s marketplace emphasizes on the importance of dispersion, uniqueness or specialization and its localized nature. This means that fundamental corporate marketing strategies must be designed around Hayek’s Knowledge framework.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

The Web As Foundation To The Knowledge Revolution

``The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.”- Friedrich von Hayek

Dictators of Tunisia and Egypt have recently been toppled. Autocratic leaders of Yemen, Jordan and Algeria have likewise been under political pressure.

The web’s real time connectivity coursed through social media has allowed for a widespread diffusion of information...and knowledge. And this has lowered the cost of organization and mobilization that has apparently increased the demand for political spontaneous actions in the form of “people power” political movements.

In short, the economics of the web has been transforming the political order[1].

But when we read social media sceptics like such as Stratfor’s Marko Papic and Sean Noonan, who writes[2]... (bold highlights mine)

Social media alone, however, do not instigate revolutions. They are no more responsible for the recent unrest in Tunisia and Egypt than cassette-tape recordings of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini speeches were responsible for the 1979 revolution in Iran. Social media are tools that allow revolutionary groups to lower the costs of participation, organization, recruitment and training. But like any tool, social media have inherent weaknesses and strengths, and their effectiveness depends on how effectively leaders use them and how accessible they are to people who know how to use them...

The key for any protest movement is to inspire and motivate individuals to go from the comfort of their homes to the chaos of the streets and face off against the government. Social media allow organizers to involve like-minded people in a movement at a very low cost, but they do not necessarily make these people move.

...we understand that such objections have been founded on superficial premises-mostly from underrating the importance of knowledge and the continued the expectations that political developments flow from top-down dynamics.

Hayek’s Knowledge Revolution

Knowledge, according to the great Friedrich von Hayek[3], never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.

This simply means that everyone’s unique perspective represents as dispersed knowledge. When dispersed knowledge are combined, exchanged, mimicked and improved upon these interactions result to fresh or innovative ideas.

Prolific author and writer Matt Ridley calls such phenomenon as Ideas having Sex[4].

Professor Don Boudreaux expounds[5] on Matt Ridley’s intellectual intercourse.

The easier it is for ideas to get together, check each other out, and jump into bed with each other, the greater will be the number of newly created ideas — ideas that would not otherwise be conceived.

Copulating ideas has also another very important role: coordination of diversified information into the production of goods and services. And this has been the path to our (human) progress.

Matt Ridley, author of the very impressive book the Rational Optimist writes[6]

``the sophistication of the modern world lies not in individual intelligence or imagination. It is a collective enterprise. Nobody—literally nobody—knows how to make the pencil on my desk (as the economist Leonard Read once pointed out), let alone the computer on which I am writing. The knowledge of how to design, mine, fell, extract, synthesize, combine, manufacture and market these things is fragmented among thousands, sometimes millions of heads. Once human progress started, it was no longer limited by the size of human brains. Intelligence became collective and cumulative.

And that’s exactly what the web has been facilitating—an unlimited orgy of ideas—Hayek’s knowledge revolution is essentially being realized through social media.

From Vertical To Horizontal Flow

In the past the flow of information reflected on how economic production had been organized: the industrial age marked by mass production and thus a top to bottom dynamic. This holds true even with the political framework. From the top down economic structure emerged the grand experiments with centralized form of governance in the form of communism, socialism, autocracy, fascism and totalitarianism.

The traditional medium of information for the consuming public had been mostly through TV, radio and newspapers. Because of the limited networks, these institutions discriminated on the information it chose to broadcast, thus the exchange of ideas had largely been constrained.

Governments easily resorted to information control via political censorship in order to regulate “the moral and political life of the population[7]” or when political leaders felt the need to advance their interests.

Controlling the flow of information meant controlling the medium. Thus, political leaders throughout history have attempted to control the medium to preserve political power.

This time is proving to be different.

Today information flows real time and horizontally, enabled by the web.

People can simply self publish their thoughts, unedited, via the blogsphere (which incidentally accounts for an estimated 133 million[8] bloggers and growing) or through privately owned websites.

People can send messages via email or even by text messages via mobile phone.

People can also air blips of short messages or comments via the online community as Facebook and Twitter.

Or produce videos via podcasting and youtube that are being broadcasted via blip.tv or vimeo or video aggregators which has been posing a threat to TV.

And investors have been following the money trail.

As more and more people get wired or become netcitizens AD money spent on the internet has substantially been growing[9] see figure 6.

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Figure 6: AD Spending Follow the Money Trail (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker predicts of the explosion of mobile internet as the major source of growth for the web[10].

Even some TV programs today try to interact with the web by publishing tweets or facebook comments of audiences on air!

The democratization of information from the web or cyberspace has dramatically altered the complexion of knowledge distribution.

Gossip And The Transition To A Horizontally Based Political Order

In the hunter gatherer society, where our ancestors wandered in small tightly knit groups, gossips were used as a tool to evaluate relationships and as form of social discipline.

Aside from useful information, gossips, according to David Brooks of the Biorational[11], served to ``maintained social bonds and enforced social norms. In small groups like our ancestors' hunter-gatherer bands, in which everyone talks to everyone else regularly, liars and social cheats were found out quickly and were dealt with quickly. So lying and social cheating were relatively rare.”

The introduction of the web has basically brought back the traditional role of gossip.

For instance, Wikileaks has spilled the beans on many stealth government activities, and wikileaks has been instrumental in unleashing the popular “Jasmine” revolt in Tunisia[12].

Despite governments attempt to harass and control the founder of wikileaks, the success wikileaks has prompted for the broadening of competition.

As Professor Gary North rightly observes[13],

WikiLeaks has taken this to a new level. Now a disgruntled former WikiLeaks employee is branching out on his own. He has started a new organization, OpenLeaks. This is the kind of competition I love to see. A Reuters story describes what is about to happen. "All across Europe, from Brussels to the Balkans, a new generation of WikiLeaks-style websites is sprouting."...

As the number of these sites increases, it will become more difficult for governments to contain the leaks. The desire of leakers to become important overnight will grow.”

Of course governments can initiate countermoves such as instituting “firewalls” (as in the case of China) or kill-switch strategy[14] or the shutdown of ISP providers or disseminate counterpropaganda.

Cuba’s government for instance has designed a campaign to counter the web. Unfortunately this was again exposed, according to Wall Street Journal’s Mary O’Grady[15]

Last week a leaked video of a Cuban military seminar on how to combat technology hit the Internet. It demonstrates the dictatorship's preoccupation with the Web. The lecturer warns about the dangers of young people with an appealing discourse sharing information through technology and trying to organize.

As in the case of Egypt, the kill switch strategy has ultimately failed[16].

Circulating political propaganda or spreading disinformation can easily neutralized by “local based” knowledge or by speciality sites (e.g. snope.com).

One important development from the web is that it has altered the way governments have been behaving, as governments seemingly become more cautious and possibly less repressive in dealing with transgressors or with the political opposition, as in the case of China.

Borje Ljunggren of Yale Global notes of several incidences and sees[17] that

In case after case since 2004, the internet has dramatically changed the course of an event, forcing the party to maneuver between response and repression.

Mr. Ljunggren further notes that Chinese state control of information has also been under pressure,

He further writes, (bold emphasis mine)

Censorship is an organic part of the party-state and will no doubt remain a crucial weapon, but its usage is increasingly exposed as the Chinese internet society becomes aware of the extent to which entrenched party interests determine their access to information. As a consequence, an idea of a “right to know” is taking shape in China’s rapidly growing online civil society and this could, in Shirk’s analysis, become “the rallying cry of the next Chinese revolution.

While internet freedom clearly is not about to be declared, civil society and new technology will over time push limits beyond the axiomatic boundaries of the party-state.”

As one would notice the vertical-hierarchal structure of governments are constantly held under pressure by the democratization of knowledge.

And this should apply with political ideology too.

Political and economic ideology latched on a vertical top-bottom flow of power will be on a collision course with horizontal real time flow of democratized knowledge.

This would likely result to less applicability of ideologies based on centralization, which could substantially erode its support base and shift political capital to decentralized structure of political governance that would conform with the horizontal structure of information flows.

People will know more therefore control from the top will be less an appealing idea.

The final word from futurist Alvin Toffler[18], who predicted this Hayekian Knowledge Revolution which he molded through as his Third Wave concept.

``Computers can be expected to deepen the entire culture’s view of causality, heightening our understanding of the interrelatedness of things, and helping us to synthesize meaningful “wholes” out of the disconnected data whirling around us....The intelligent environment may eventually begin to change not merely the way we analyze problems and integrate information but even the chemistry of our brains.”


[1] See The Web Is Changing The Global Political Order, January 29, 2010

[2] Papic Marko and Noonan Sean Social Media as a Tool for Protest, stratfor.com February 3, 2010

[3] Hayek, Friedrich August von The Use of Knowledge In Society, Individualism and Economic Order, Mises.org, p.77

[4] See Matt Ridley: When Ideas Have Sex, August 11, 2011

[5] Boudreaux Donald J. Promiscuous, Productive Ideas, CATO Unbound, September 10, 2010

[6] Ridley Matt, Humans: Why They Triumphed, Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2010

[7] Newth, Mette Newth The long history of censorship Beacon for Freedom of Expression, 2001

[8] Bradley Phil, Great Blog statistics, Phil Bradley’s Weblog

[9] See The Deepening Of The Information Age: News Sources And Ad Spending, January 7, 2011

[10] Meeker, Mary Internet Trends 2010 by Morgan Stanley Research, slideshare.net 2010

[11] The Bio-Rational Institute Pleistocene brain, mobile phone, May 26, 2006

[12] International Business Times, Wikileaks helped spark Tunisia revolt : FPJ January 29, 2011

[13] North Gary When the Insiders Lose Control, February 3, 2011

[14] Cowie James, Can the Internet Tame Governments? – Part I, Yale Global, February 9, 2011

[15] O’Grady, Mary Anastacia Will Cuba Be the Next Egypt?, Wall Street Journal February 7, 2011

[16] See Egyptian Revolt: Web Censorship Fails, February 1, 2011

[17] Ljunggren Borje Can the Internet Tame Governments? – Part II, Yale Global February 11, 2011

[18] Toffler, Alvin The Third Wave p 175