Thursday, September 29, 2011

US Equity Markets: More Signs of Tidal Flows

Anyone who argues that stock market valuations have been about contemporary fundamentals should see this.

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The market breadth of the US S&P 500 has increasingly been either about floating or sinking ships from tidal flows.

This great observation from Bespoke Invest, (chart above from Bespoke)

We consider 'all or nothing' days in the market to be days where the net daily A/D reading in the S&P 500 exceeds plus or minus 400. With today's A/D reading of -470, there have now been 42 'all or nothing' days for the S&P 500. At this rate, 2011 is now on pace to see 57 all or nothing days, which would eclipse the record high reading we saw back in 2008.

The most shocking development of late is how common 'all or nothing days' have become. Up until a few years ago, these types of days were pretty rare, but in the 42 trading days since the start of August, more than half of them (22) have been 'all or nothing'.

This exhibits how US and global equity markets have been massively distorted by sundry government interventions, such that intense ebbs and flows into the marketplace are increasingly manifestations of internal boom bust cycles at work.

So sharp market volatility on both directions should be expected or has become the 'new normal'. This makes stock markets seem more like a gamble, since steep gyrations encourage short term actions rather than long term investments. Yet the above dynamic basically tilts the benefits to those whom are proximate or personally close to policymakers at the expense of the public.

Again, such skewness is courtesy of the politicization of the financial markets by political stewards led by Mr. Bernanke et. al.

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