Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Quote of the Day: Fallacy of Animal Spirits

From Bob Wenzel

Markets clear. If consumer products are out there, they will be purchased, and a production-consumption structure will emerge based on those prices. Steve Jobs isn't successful selling iPads and iPhones because consumers are confident. He is able to sell them because first he produced the products, second consumers desire the products he has produced, and third the products are sold at a price where the market clears, which also happens to be at a price where Apple can make a profit.

Consumers can be totally unconfident about the economy to the point where iPads and iPhones have only consumer demand at $1.00. If all other products are also bid at such an overall low price level, the factors of production will adjust to the new low price level and products will continue to be produced. Keynesian concerns about "confidence", "animal spirits" etc. have no place in an economy where markets are allowed to clear through pricing.

Again beware of the fallacy of mistaking effects (confidence-fear, greed) as causes.

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