Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde: China and Vietnam to Expand Trade Via Road Network

More signs of China’s love-hate relationship with ASEAN.

Vietnam one of the claimants in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea has forged a “historic” agreement with China to expand trade through a major road network

From ADB, (bold added)

For the first time, buses and trucks will be able to cross overland between the rugged southern regions of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the remote northern regions of Viet Nam using a 1,300 kilometer route spanning from Ha Noi to Shenzhen made possible through a road transport agreement between the two countries.

“The new transport agreement will have a profound impact not only on bilateral trade and tourism, but also on Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) transport facilitation," said Yushu Feng, Principal Economist, Regional Cooperation, at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which facilitated the bilateral road transport agreement in line with GMS transport facilitation initiatives. “This is a key milestone for regional cooperation.”

The new agreement will ease restrictions on trucks and buses travelling between major economic zones in PRC’s Yunnan province, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Guangdong province and six provinces in Viet Nam, including Lang Son and Quang Ninh provinces, and the cities of Ha Noi and Hai Phong.

Previously, transport operators were only allowed to travel up to 20 kilometers into each other’s territories. Starting August 2012, each country will be able to issue up to 15,100 permits for trucks and buses that travel within the border province area, and each will be able to issue up to 500 permits for trucks and buses than can go to inland provincial areas.

Another significant route, connecting Kunming to Ha Noi and Hai Phong and governed by the same agreement, was inaugurated in Kunming on 16 August 2012.

In 2011, road transport volume between PRC and Viet Nam through the Yuyi-Friendship border gate was as much as 1 million tons for goods and around 726,000 passengers traveled overland between both countries. Transport volume is expected to increase with the newly-implemented road transport agreement. To accommodate market demand, the permit quota for 2013 will be increased, accordingly.

The controversial disputes make it to the headlines and thus fire up emotions that arouse aggression via obtuse (feel good) nationalism.

But these trade agreements which signifies “key milestone for regional cooperation” will be relegated to the business or back pages.Yes the growing trade volume between ASEAN-China are for real.

Overall, China’s seeming antagonistic foreign policies or the gunboat diplomacy has hardly been consistent with her economic policies.

This makes me suspect that one of the two contradicting policies signify as no more than false signals (if not a false flag) aimed at the promotion of concealed political goals.

Integrating PSE with ASEAN Equity Markets

The Philippine government plans to improve local equity standings through regional cooperation.

From Finance Asia

The Philippine Stock Exchange can boast a handful of companies that international investors are comfortable with — the biggest banks, telcos and conglomerates. But there are also a handful of companies in foods, pharmaceuticals and services that are well-run, growing businesses.

In an exclusive interview with FinanceAsia, Cesar Purisima, secretary of the Philippine department of finance, said that he hopes these dynamic firms will become future corporate champions through initiatives such as Asean Exchanges — a collaboration of seven exchanges from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

“We’ve been trying to encourage more of these start-ups and family-owned companies to come to the capital markets,” said Purisima. “It is important that Asean develops a deeper capital market that attracts investors from both within the region and outside. The problem for most of the exchanges right now is that it is simply not deep enough, not big enough. The Asean Exchanges will help us address that problem.”

A deeper pool of liquidity could make it more worthwhile for start-ups and other growing businesses to consider listing, but would also help bigger firms with international ambitions.

“We have companies that are starting to go beyond the boundaries of the Philippines,” said Purisima, “Getting funding from outside is crucial not just from a capital perspective, but also in terms of matching risk.”

The main reason that I am not sold to the notion of decoupling (yet), aside from globalization, has been because regionalization has already been happening, if not intensifying. So the political framework for deeper regional collaboration through equity markets are, in effect, responses to an ongoing phenomenon.

Yes, ASEAN has already embarked on a cross listing program via the Singapore Exchange and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) which began this month with Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand as pioneer participants. The Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam has announced interests to join in the future.

While I am one with Mr. Purisima’s goal to deepen the domestic equity market partly through ‘collaboration’ with Asean exchanges and eventually through cross-listing, Mr. Purisima misses out the main reason for why many family owned businesses have been reluctant to list.

This basically boils down to economic opportunities: many economic opportunities has been politically derived, which also extrapolates to the lack of opportunities outside the political realm.

In a way, the Philippine political economy resembles Greece.

Robert Kaplan at the Stratfor describes the fundamental Greece political economy

Roughly three-quarters of Greek businesses are family-owned and rely on family labor, making meritocratic promotion difficult for those outside the family. Tax cheating is rampant. The economy suffers from a profound lack of competitiveness, even as Greece is mainly a service economy, relying on tourism, in which manufacturing constitutes a weak sector. Of course, these features have much to do with bad policies enacted over the years and decades, but they are also products of history and culture, which are, in turn, products of geography. Indeed, Greece lacks enough productive land to be an agricultural power.

Then there is political underdevelopment. Long into the 20th century, Greek political parties had a paternalistic, coffeehouse quality, centered on big personalities -- chieftains in all but name -- with little formal organizational support. George Papandreou, the grandfather of the recent prime minister of the same name, actually headed a party called the "George Papandreou Party." Political parties have been family businesses to a greater extent in Greece than in other Western democracies. The party in power not only dominated the highest echelons of the bureaucracy, as is normal and proper in a democracy, but the middle- and lower-echelons, too. State institutions from top to bottom were often overly politicized.

In other words, the structure of the economy reflects on the structure of politics.

As I pointed out before,

There about 250 political dynasties in the Philippines (New York Times 2007) and this number has been growing. The 14^th Philippine congress has an estimated more than 75% of lawmakers from old political families (Wikipedia.org).

In short, the key problem has not been about ‘corporate governance’ or ‘corruption’ (which has been alluded to as obstacles by Mr. Purisma) both of which signifies as symptoms rather than the disease, but one of economic freedom.

Because greater economic freedom allows for MORE economic opportunities, economic freedom will likely reduce the incentives by families to keep a tight lock on their business holdings and allow more public ownership. Alternatively, family business owners are likely to be provided with more options to diversify or even to switch fields of investments, given the liberal business environment.

Lastly corporate governance has not been an issue of oversight from ‘virtuous’ regulators over scheming stockholders and managers, as the government has been guilty of the many sins endured by the economy and by unscrupulous corporate agents; particularly through taxes, manifold regulations (as licenses, disclosure rules, insider trading etc..) [ which diminishes profits, distorts profits and spurs corruption and transferring of resources to wasteful consumptive expenditures by governments], ownership restrictions, labor regulations (raises the cost of labor and thus unemployment) and more.

Corporate governance is largely the about the contractual relationship between the entrepreneurs, capitalists and managers.

As the great Ludwig von Mises explained,

The general direction of a corporation's conduct of business is exercised by the stockholders and their elected mandataries, the directors. The directors appoint and discharge the managers. In smaller companies and sometimes even in bigger ones the offices of the directors and the managers are often combined in the same persons. A successful corporation is ultimately never controlled by hired managers. The emergence of an omnipotent managerial class is not a phenomenon of the unhampered market economy. It was, on the contrary, an outgrowth of the interventionist policies consciously aiming at an elimination of the influence of the shareholders and at their virtual expropriation. In Germany, Italy, and Austria it was a preliminary step on the way toward the substitution of government control of business for free enterprise, as has been the case in Great Britain with regard to the Bank of England and the railroads. Similar tendencies are prevalent in the American public utilities. The marvelous achievements of corporate business were not a result of the activities of a salaried managerial oligarchy; they were accomplished by people who were connected with the corporation by means of the ownership of a considerable part or of the greater part of its stock and whom part of the public scorned as promoters and profiteers.

Politically based corporate governance can, thus, serve as a vehicle for government control of corporations and for cronyism.

First Shale Gas Output from China, India to Follow

I previously pointed out that, the Southeast Asian territorial dispute has NOT been about oil as popularly thought.

And since China has the largest reserves of Shale energy in the world, like the US, dependence on external sourcing of oil WILL diminish. So there hardly is any need or incentive for gunboat diplomacy (except to use this as diversion for other unstated reasons).

Also I pointed out that Shale gas revolution is the future of energy which should translate to a worldwide phenomenon.

I would guess that the shale gas revolution will be a worldwide phenomenon which should wean away our dependence on oil. The net effect outside manipulation of money by governments should be to materially bring down or lower prices of energy.

Now some confirmations to this prediction: China will be having its first shale gas output while India is slated to access local Shale energy too.

The roll out of Asia’s shale gas boom has began!

From Bloomberg (bold emphasis mine)

ONGC, India’s biggest explorer, is studying data for shale- gas deposits and awaiting a government policy on commercial drilling for gas trapped in shale rock, Sudhir Vasudeva, chairman of the state-run company, said in a telephone interview yesterday. China Petrochemical Corp. will start pumping the nation’s first shale gas from a project in Sichuan province next month, according to a report on Caixin’s website on May 15, citing the company…

India holds 6.1 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas reserves in three basins, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated in a report in January. That was less than 10 percent of the 63 trillion cubic feet estimate made the previous year, in April, by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in a report.

“The U.S. estimates are just estimates, and we’ll have to survey the geology and deposits and drill wells before we know how much shale gas we have,” Vasudeva said. “What we do know is that India does have shale-gas reserves.”

ONGC found shale gas at a well in India’s West Bengal state, according to a Jan. 27, 2011, statement. The company signed an agreement with ConocoPhillips (COP) on March 30 for developing shale resources in India and North America.

India Auction

India has started mapping its shale resources and will have exploration rules in place by 2013, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said March 23. Blocks will be auctioned next year after the policy is published, G.C. Chaturvedi, the top bureaucrat in the oil ministry, said Dec. 21…

China has 25.08 trillion cubic meters (886 trillion cubic feet) of exploitable onshore shale-gas reserves, the country’s land ministry said March 1. The world’s biggest energy consumer aims to produce 6.5 billion cubic meters of shale gas by 2015 and set a target of 60 billion to 100 billion cubic meters by 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission said.

China Shale

China drilled 50 shale-gas wells in the past year, compared with 1,300 a month in the U.S., Chris Faulkner, chief executive officer of Breitling Oil and Gas Corp., said April 23. It takes “three to five years” for a shale-gas discovery to start commercial production and an extensive pipeline network is needed to transport the fuel to consumers.

My comments

This should serve as more proof that shale gas is the future of energy.

This also means that the emphasis for acquiring energy reserves will largely be directed to Shale at the expense of alternatives (conventional oil, coal, nuclear, solar, wind)

And this is why energy geopolitics will shift to Shale.

My favorite environmental science and economics author Matt Ridley writes

The campaign to stop shale gas proving its case in the market is political, not scientific. Behind it lies vested interests. The Russian gas industry, which is alarmed at losing its impending near-monopoly on European gas supplies, has been vocal in its criticism of shale gas. The coal and nuclear industries too would like to see this baby strangled at birth, but have been less high-profile.

Most of the opposition, though, has come from those with a vested interest in renewable energy, including the big environmental pressure groups, which are alarmed that the rich subsidies paid to wind, biomass and solar may be under threat if gas gets too cheap and cuts carbon emissions too effectively. Their entire rationale for subsidy, parroted by their dutiful poodle Chris Huhne, when Energy Secretary, is that gas would get more expensive until even wind and solar looked cheap. That was wishful thinking.

Even if you do not think carbon emissions are the highest environmental priority, there is a more fundamental reason why using gas is good for the planet. No other species needs or uses it. Every time you grow a biofuel crop, harvest timber for a biomass power station, pave a desert with solar panels or dam a river for a hydro plant, you are stealing energy from the natural world. Even the wind is needed - by eagles for soaring, by bats for feeding (both are regularly killed by wind turbines). As the only species that uses gas, the more we use it the more we can leave other sources of energy for nature.

And lastly, given all of the above, this is further evidence that many have seduced to the quackery, peddled by politicians and mainstream media, that the Southeast Asian territorial disputes of Scarborough or Spratlys has been about oil.

As a side note, Japan and China has their version of territorial dispute through Senkaku Islands which I earlier pointed out. Yet, in spite of the supposed bickering, Japan-China-South Korea concluded last week what has been labeled as the "Trilateral Summit" covering vast economic and political issues

Part of the rapprochement reached from the conference as noted by Xinhua, ironically China’s official press agency:

On strengthening communication and coordination in regional and international affairs, they stressed the mutually reinforcing and complementary roles of the trilateral cooperation and such regional fora as ASEAN Plus One, ASEAN Plus Three, East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, said the declaration.

They reaffirmed that the ASEAN Plus Working Groups need to be established without delay to accelerate the discussion on a regional comprehensive economic partnership towards the commencement of negotiations, taking into account the initiatives of East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA).

So again, the Philippines either has a Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde relationship with China or that all the ruckus about the gunboat diplomacy has been geopolitical vaudeville.

ASEAN Integration: ASEAN Economic Community

Despite the ongoing grim conditions in many key developed nations, there is a major development to cheer about: The goal to integrate the economies and markets of ASEAN via the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015

From Matthew Asia’s Tarik Jaleel, (bold emphasis added)

The establishment and prioritization of a move toward a common market by 2015 with free movement of resources comes in response to increased competition posed by China and India. A grouping of 10 countries, with a combined population of 600 million and GDP of more than US$1.7 trillion, would give its members greater influence on the world stage than they might individually attract.

Intra-ASEAN trade already represents nearly 25% of total exports by ASEAN countries and about 24% of total imports. Intra-ASEAN trade over the last 10 years has grown at a faster rate of 10.7% compound annual growth rate, compared to the total trade growth of 7.6%. The AEC, therefore, will build on an already robust trade platform and extend ASEAN to the next level to that of a single market and production base. The AEC will be comprised of five core elements which espouse the free flow of: goods, services, investment, capital and skilled labor. Industrial sectors to be included in the single market and production-base comprise 12 priority integration sectors, including food, fisheries, air transportation, automotives, health care, apparel, tourism and logistics. In an open economic region this would create a multitude of opportunities—a company in Singapore or Malaysia could easily invest in infrastructure projects in lesser developed countries such as the Philippines or Vietnam. More importantly, in increasingly service-driven economies, mobility of skilled labor would be improved, facilitated through employment passes and mutual recognition arrangements for professional services.

What is therefore surprising is the indifference, or lack of awareness, amongst the investment community and the private sector to the many opportunities and threats. In a recent investment bank survey of 60 publicly listed ASEAN companies, approximately one-third of respondents classified themselves as either “familiar” or “very familiar” with the AEC. In light of the plans, some companies are undergoing measures to strengthen their position within the community. Malaysian banks backed by the government, for example, have expanded aggressively in the region in hopes of capturing a bigger share of regional business that may result from increased trade among AEC countries.

For investors, the move toward a single market may present a period of change from the previous state of business as companies consolidate, aim to increase transparency and to adopt standardized regulations. The blueprint for the formation of the community also calls for business dynamics to be conducted under free market competition. The hope is that an open market environment would provide a broader and more attractive investment universe in Southeast Asia.

This looks like one step in the right direction. I hope that free trade won’t stop with ASEAN but spread throughout the entire world that should not only increase wealth and prosperity but likewise foster peace, cooperation and social harmony.

As the great Ludwig von Mises wrote,

What makes friendly relations between human beings possible is the higher productivity of the division of labor. It removes the natural conflict of interests. For where there is division of labor, there is no longer a question of the distribution of a supply not capable of enlargement. Thanks to the higher productivity of labor performed under the division of tasks, the supply of goods multiplies. A preeminent common interest, the preservation and further intensification of social cooperation, becomes paramount and obliterates all essential collisions.

ASEAN Integration: Regional Stock Exchange Website Launched

The path towards the deepening of integration of ASEAN markets and economies has moved one step forward.

ASEAN has launched a website to promote the integration of ASEAN stock markets.

Reports the yahoo,

The www.aseanexchanges.org website launch was celebrated on the sidelines of the 15th ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting at the Laguna Resort and was attended by the chairman of the meeting -- Indonesian Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo -- and seven chief executive officers (CEOs) of the member stock exchanges.

The ASEAN Exchanges website features a product called "ASEAN Stars", which provides 210 blue chips stocks ranked by "investability" in terms of market capitalization and liquidity and made up of a selection of 30 stocks from each exchange.

"The main focus will be ASEAN's key assets -- the strength and diversity of ASEAN's companies, some of which are the largest and most dynamic companies in the world, including leaders in the banking, finance, telecommunications, commodities and automotive industries," Indonesia Stock Exchange president director Ito Warsito said at the event.

The 30 Indonesian stocks included in the ASEAN Stars come from various sectors, including Astra International (ASII), Adaro Energy (ADRO) Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) and state-owned firms such as Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Jasa Marga (JSMR) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM).

Shares of firms from other countries promoted through the ASEAN Stars include Malaysia's CIMB Group and Petronas, as well as Singapore's SingTel and Wilmar International.

"Each of these 30 stocks will represent the favor of a particular exchange. Review will be done on a six-month basis in terms of liquidity, size and market capitalization," Gan said, adding that Thomson Reuters, which has thousands of terminals worldwide, would provide market data for the website.

ASEAN had a combined market capitalization of about $1.8 trillion as of January 2011, the eighth highest in the world, with total listed firms numbering over 3,000 companies and a market of more than 538 million people.

This how the nascent website looks...

If the goal is to balance trade and investment flows by reducing dependence on the US—this incorporates the vendor cycling programs of buying US sovereign securities and the implied importation of US monetary policies—then the development of ASEAN financial markets have much more much much room for progress.

The share of some of the major ASEAN members in % to the world stock market capitalization [chart from safehaven.com] reveals of the lack of depth, sophistication and the penetration levels by the local populace in the domestic equity markets which has resulted to the inadequate channeling of savings to investments.

This can also be seen from the region’s share of global market capitalization (2007 chart from Leaps) where ASEAN’s role remain insignificant.

Yet ASEAN has huge foreign exchange reserves which it can use for its development.

(chart from Donghyun Park and Gemma Esther B. Estrada Asian Development Bank Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in the ASEAN-4: challenges, opportunities, and policy options)

Bottom line: This represents more indications that ASEAN (and Asia) have increasingly been adhering to free trade principles which should translate to more progress down the road.