Phisix Up on Negative News: A Bullish Sign

Last week was marked by a string of bad news from local and international fronts, particularly geopolitical tensions with China over the disputed Scarborough Shoal, rolling Brownouts in Mindanao, record earthquake in Indonesia[1] and also a major earthquake in Mexico and reemergent concerns over the unraveling debt crisis in Spain.

Rotation to the Blue Chips

Yet the local equity benchmark, the Phisix, seemed to have defied the adverse developments by posting a modest weekly gain of 1.16%

Most of these gains were driven by this year’s sectoral leaders; specifically the property, the financial and holding companies.

And in reinforcing this year’s rotational trend, the mining and the service sectors continued to lag.

The actions of the Phisix seem to have departed from the actions of the broader market where there had been more declining issues than advancing issues. The graph above exhibits that market breadth has been tilted towards profit taking.

Aside from sectoral performances, the gains of the Phisix have mostly emanated from select issues mostly the biggest market caps or the blue chips.

Holiday blues from an abbreviated trading week or extended vacation seem to characterize last week’s market actions. Peso volume (averaged on a weekly basis) materially slackened on the account of this week’s gains. The decline in the Peso volume adds to the evidence of a profit taking mode.

Foreign trades have also been sluggish with paltry changes over the last two weeks. Yet, despite the marginal actions by foreign investors, the Philippine Peso posted modest advances.

So essentially, last week’s action suggest of a rotation away from second and third tier issues back into the blue chips.

Yet I expect to see normalization of trading activities in terms of Peso volume which should undergird either the current consolidation phase or a fresh attempt to break away into new highs.

When the markets to defy the spate of bad news that signifies as a bullish signal.

Catechism of Inflation

It is important to note too that the Phisix and the major US benchmark, the S&P 500, has seen a tightening of correlations since March of last year.

Nonetheless tight correlation does not imply of causation.

Both charts have even spelled out the failed bearish head and shoulders pattern and the accompanying rally that had been fueled by collaborative central bank actions.

However, one would note that the difference between them has been in the degree of the rebound. The Phisix blitz past the consolidation range whereas the S&P 500 has just been drifting above the breakout zone. And one would further observe that both the Phisix and the S&P 500 seem as in a consolidation phase.

The actions of the Phisix and the S&P 500 are intertwined through the policies of the US Federal Reserve, where a slew of credit easing measures from artificially suppressed interest rates, bond purchases, interest on excess reserves, and foreign currency swaps have also influenced policy making in the Philippines and elsewhere through policy induced negative real rates regime and partly from the acquisition of dollar foreign exchange reserves in the domestic economy.

I may add that in the near future, policy induced carry trades will become more pronounced[2].

While events in the Eurozone could pose as somewhat a drag to US markets, this should be viewed as temporary, as the money supply growth in the US continues to balloon.

And part of the substantial growth in money supply exudes from Quantitative Easing (QE) programs or bond purchases which have partly been designed to inject money to the economy which bypassed the banking system through stock payments.

German Economist and Professor Thorsten Polleit explains[3],

However, it may also be due to the Fed's purchases of bonds from so-called nonbanks (for instance, private households, pension funds, and insurance companies). Under such operations the Fed increases the means of payments directly; it is a policy of increasing money by actually circumventing bank credit expansion.

The marked increase in the stock of payments in recent years is an unmistakable sign of what can be called, economically speaking, inflation, a view held by the Austrian School of economics.

And given the series of massive short covering and yield chasing actions that has translated into a gigantic “boom” over a very short period, a reprieve or profit taking process or a countercyclical trend would account for as a natural order, current events nothwithstanding.

The short of it, is that no trend moves in a straight line.

It is innate upon us to rely on heuristics and cognitive bias to scour for descriptive explanations to market outcomes, whether these events are truly relevant or not.

Moreover, should stress levels over Spain or Italy’s debt intensify (left window), the European Central Bank (ECB) would most likely resuscitate its recently mothballed bond purchases (Securities Markets Programme-SMP; right window[4]) despite isolated rhetoric in opposition to its revival[5].

A poll recently noted that experts unanimously expect the ECB to intervene[6] mostly through SMP, and like Pavlov’s experimental dogs, the financial marketplace has been conditioned to expect that any market pressures would be counteracted by interventions after interventions.

Such feedback loop mechanism, which I previously pointed out[7], between market actions and political responses and vice versa, has not only become the central banker’s main tool in dealing with the crisis, but now represents the catechism of inflation.

Faced with increasing risks of a hard landing, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut reserve requirements for select banks anew[8] yesterday. Moreover, China’s lending and money supply has substantially jumped in response to earlier policy accommodation[9]. As one would note, whether China or Western central bankers, the operating procedure has been the same.

And for as long as the public remains unaware of the abstruse nature of central banking in manipulating and gaming the system to the benefit of the cronies and the welfare-warfare state, and importantly for as long as the effects or impacts on the markets by such policies remain mild and nonthreatening, central bankers will continue to resort to such measures.

Profit from political folly.

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[1] Reuters.com Indonesia quake a record, risks for Aceh grow, April 12, 2012

[2] See Will Japan’s Investments Drive the Phisix to the 10,000 levels?, March 19, 2012

[3] Polleit Thorsten The Worst of All Monetary Policies April 4, 2012, Mises.org

[4] Danske Research Q&A on Spain April 12, 2012

[5] Bloomberg.com Knot Says ECB ‘Very Far’ From Resuming Bond-Purchase Program April 13, 2012

[6] Business Standard, ECB favours buying bonds over bank loans April 14, 2012

[7] See Chart of the Day: The Inflation Cycle April 5, 2012

[8] China Daily China cuts reserve requirements for county lenders April 14, 2012

[9] See China’s Tiger by the Tail, April 13, 2012

Quotation of the Day: Fickle Public Opinion

In a sense, public opinion is like one of those mountain snow accumulations…. As snow builds up, the likelihood that the whole drift will come crashing down the mountain steadily increases. Finally, as the ultimate snowflake falls on top of the drift, the weight is now too much too be borne, and the whole drift comes down. Major changes in public opinion tend to take the same form. A very large number of books, articles, and lectures which appear to have no great effect nevertheless prepare the way. Eventually a critical mass is reached and what appears to be an overnight change of opinion occurs.

That’s from Gordon Tullock’s “Foreword” to J. Ronnie Davis’s 1971 book The New Economics and the Old Economists (source: Don Boudreaux at Café Hayek)

Public opinion is fundamentally driven by mawkishness and unctuousness.

Public opinion, today, can be characterized by several dominant cognitive biases; particularly, the comfort of the crowd, appeal to tradition, appeal to majority, appeal to experts and appeal to the emotion.

There hardly have been any critical thinking involved in what have been deemed as ‘cerebral’ discussions among conventional experts. Debates mostly revolve around the acceptance of current circumstances, conditions and methodology, where variances of ideas mostly deal with interpretation of events and or on personality issues and or semantical dimensions (mostly bordering on the abstract).

This means that public opinion has been largely influenced by the way elites or how the intellectual class think and project on the issues.

Yet questioning on the validity and the biases of the sources of information, the socio-economic political theories and or the philosophical underpinnings of the current institutional framework would be considered as heresy that risks ostracism for the expositor. Thus, conformity and social acceptance are prioritized at the expense of reality which drives the popular mindset.

And that’s why politics has mainly been centered on the manipulation of public opinion.

Nevertheless, times have been changing.

Real time connectivity has been encouraging on more critical thinking. A diffusion of critical thinking could influence a shift in public opinion through a change in the direction of the way the intellectual group thinks.

Structural changes are happening at the margins. So will public opinion.

Quote of the Day: Pedestrian Economics

Keynesianism is itself adorned in magnificent scientific costume and make-up, and its practitioners have built for themselves elaborate games to play that cause them to think that they’re engaged in something more than pedestrian economics. They can shift IS-LM curves, as well as aggregate-demand curves; they can calculate multipliers (“balanced budget” and otherwise); they can impress hoi polli with mysterious terms such as “liquidity trap,” “marginal efficiency of capital,” and “marginal propensity to consume.” But through it all, they – at least when doing Keynesian economics – ignore the very heart of the economy, namely, the goo-gob-gillions of daily adjustments that individuals make to changes in their knowledge, and the smaller – yet still large – number of creative acts that people do daily in hopes of improving their economic prospects. Paying far too little attention to these micro-level matters (or – what is the same thing – assuming these micro-level matters to be fixed and given in ways that, by assumption, leave demand as the only available variable to affect the economy), Keynesians of course can build impressive models that show how exogenous changes in demand will do this or that to the economy.

But these models miss 99 percent of the relevant action – and they miss all of the action that pedestrian economists never become aware of. No pattern of sustainable specialization and trade was ever created by aggregate demand. And no such pattern can be explained or understood by using a method of analysis that focuses only on what, in the final analysis, are largely the consequences of people’s success or failure at establishing patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.

Professor Donald J. Boudreaux expounds on the structural flaws of the Keynesian methodology.

I’d further add that pedestrian economics is in reality, heuristics (mental short cuts) paraded as economic reasoning that has been clothed with math models (mostly used or intended to justify an underlying uneconomic political belief.)

Year of the Dragon: A Stock Market Boom?

The Economist says that the year of the Dragon will bring good fortune to stock market investors.

That would be nice to hear.

Here’s the Economist,

CHINESE people across the world ushered in their new year on January 23rd, which according to 3,000 year-old Chinese astrology is the year of the dragon. This critter is not a mythical beast. Physignathus cocincinus, to give its Latin name, is associated with power, authority and good fortune. For those looking for good news among the grim January headlines, this could bode well for stockmarket fortunes over the coming year. Between 1900 and 2011, the nine previous dragon years have seen America's Dow Jones Industrial Average price index increase by an average of 7.7% in real terms, the second-best historical record of the 12 zodiac animals. Such fortune may be short-lived however; next year's animal, the snake, has the second-worst historical record.

My view is that the illustrated stock market returns has been coincidental, and has little to do with the fortune cookie from the year of the Dragon.

This is an example of the penchant to look for patterns or correlations to justify or rationalize a bias. Other daffy examples are: Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue, Skirt Theory, Super Bowl, Lipstick and more...

Instead, the politicized nature of the global stock markets implies that the collective actions of the US Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke, ECB’s Mario Draghi, BoE’s Mervyn King, BoJ’s Masaaki Shirakawa and the central bankers of other major economies will serve as one of the major pillars in shaping investor returns this year.

The others you can read here

Cartoon of the Day: Damned Lies, Statistics and Correlation-Causation Explanations

Manipulation of statistics to generate causation-correlation explanations is shown below in a spoof.

From Businessweek/Bloomberg

Our pattern seeking instincts has been shaped by our quest for certainty. This has rendered us highly vulnerable to misinterpretation of events and the subsequent distortion of our expectations. Pattern seeking plays well into our cognitive biases. Yet many seek comfort in the confines of statistics, which unknowing to many could be manipulated or skewed to fit into the bias of the presenter for whatsoever purpose/s (often politics).

And this is why we should cautiously be screening or filtering data and opinions for their validity than just to accept them as irrefragable reality or truth.

As Mark Twain once said,

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics

Phisix Should Outperform as Global Markets Improve

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. Jesse Livermore

Mechanical chartists will consider the present environment a sell.

That’s because the Phisix has joined her ASEAN neighbors (MYDOW- Malaysia, IDDOW- Indonesia and Thailand-SETI) into a transition towards the bearish “death cross”—where long term moving averages have gone above the short term moving averages.

As an aside, it’s a heresy for fanatic chart practitioners to know the fact that trading based on mechanical charting usually leads to needless churning, which benefits brokers, commissioners (like me) and governments (taxes) more than investors, due to the accumulated transaction costs that only hampers or diminishes on investor’s returns. Who cares about truth, anyway? For most people, belief is about social acceptance than of reality.

Never mind if trying to catch tops and bottoms of highly dynamic price actions of each securities driven by variable human choices under unique circumstances would seem like fictional heroine Alice—of the famed Charles Lutwidge Dodgson known under the pseudonym Lewis Carroll’s fable—who tries to ascertain if Wonderland was a reality.

To quote the legendary Jesse Livermore via Edwin Lefevre through the classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator[1]

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.

Feeding on emotional impulses and cognitive biases only deprives market participants of the needed regimen of self-discipline and importantly narrows a participant’s time preference in conducting risk reward analysis in the silly pursuit of short term “frequent” gains but at the risks of the magnitude of greater risk.

Again the legendary Jesse Livermore

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.

It is important for market practitioners to realize that what counts is the magnitude of the effects of one’s action than of its frequency[2].

Frequency will mostly be about luck while magnitude will account for the impact of patience, discipline and mental rigor.

Going back to the big picture, given that the developed economies has once again embarked on undertaking policies to substantially ease financial conditions, which this time includes developed markets periphery and some emerging markets, e.g. Australia recently joined Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia to cut policy rates[3], we may be looking at the next leg of the boom phase of the present bubble cycle.

Outside another round of exogenous based political spooks, market internals in the Phisix appear to be showing meaningful signs of improvements.

While volume still lacks the vigor of a strong recovery, possibly due to the sluggishness brought about by the extended holiday from an abbreviated trading week, signs like average number of trades (computed on a weekly basis) seem to be holding ground and showing incremental improvements.

To consider this week’s losses in the Phisix seem to reflect on the weakness of the global markets.

My interpretation of last week’s action was one of natural profit taking following a strong push from the previous weeks. The correction of which only used the Greece political circus as an excuse to take profits.

For instance, the US Dow Jones Industrials saw a winning streak of 5 consecutive weeks which accrued gains of 12.92%, but gave back 2.03% this week for a retracement of 15% from the previous gains.

The Phisix seem to reflect on the same motions, the local benchmark racked up 11% over the same 5 week period where US markets went up, but lost 1.43% this week equivalent to a 13% retracement.

Yet over the broad market, except for the financial sector which was largely unchanged, the mining sector led the losses which weighed mostly on the local composite bellwether.

And this week’s losses have hardly dinted on foreign sentiments, which as stated last week, the present recovery appears to be accelerating.

Again one of the major surprises has been that foreign investors has hardly been affected even by the September shakeout.

Finally, the Peso’s performance again appear to reflect on the actions of the Phisix.

The gap generated the other week seeems as being filled, using the current profit taking mode as pretext.

Nevertheless, since the outperformance and the momentum by ASEAN bourses seem to have been spoiled by the recent exogenous contagion, an easing financial environment will likely spur the next leg up, barring unforeseen circumstances.

My bet is that the Phisix’s ‘death cross’ along with the ASEAN counterparts are likely false signals that will become whipsaws soon, another failed chart pattern.

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[1] Gold-eagle.com Wisdom of Jesse Livermore 6

[2] See Dealing With Financial Market Information, February 27, 2011

[3] FT.com Growth fears prompt Australian rate cut, November 1, 2011

Sharp Market Gyrations Could Imply an Inflection Point

The path to a robust political economy must begin with treating political decision making (and the incentives and information embedded in that process) in the realm of policy making not as a footnote caution, but at the very beginning of the analysis.-Professor Peter Boettke

Violent gyrations in the equity markets usually occur during inflection or reversal periods of major trends.

While the current upside swing could reflect a bottoming phase, on the other hand, it could also reflect a transition towards a downside bias—a bear market.

For example, in 2007, after the first jolt from the market peak in July, both the major bellwethers of the US and the Philippines, the S&P 500 (blue-bar) and the Phisix (black candle), dramatically recoiled to the upside (red rectangles).

The initial rally saw both indices BROKE out of the resistance levels (green vertical lines) but eventually faltered. The second downswing had almost been a miniature replica of the first violent reversal.

Seen in the lens of a chart technician or chartist, such dynamic represents a chart pattern failure, where whipsaw motions can be identified as ‘bull traps’—or as investopedia defines[1],

A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline

Consequently, following the two failed patterns which diminished the vim of the bulls, the bears assumed dominance.

Don’t Get Married to an Investing theme

I am NOT suggesting that today would be a repeat of 2007-2008.

I keep pounding on the fact that patterns only capture parts of the reality, where the motion of time will always be distinctive with reference to the changes brought about by people’s actions, as well as, the changes in the environment.

It would signify a monumental folly to bet the farm based on the expectation of pattern repetition alone.

And one of the major difference between today and 2007-2008 as I wrote last September[2]

Central bank activism essentially differentiates today’s environment from that of 2008.

As I explained before[3], my bias outcome is for a non-recession bear market.

I think current US markets will likely exhibit symptoms of the non recession bear markets of the 1962 (Kennedy Slide) and 1987 (Black Monday).

Charts from Economagic

And this should be reflected on global markets too

But exposing risk money based on personal biases can be very costly.

Individual expectation of the marketplace and reality usually depart. We DO NOT and CANNOT know everything, and should humbly accept such truism. The desire to see certain outcomes, when facts present themselves to the contrary, will inflict not only monetary losses, but most importantly, mental or psychic anguish from stubborn DENIAL.

This explains the popular trading maxim “Don’t get married to a stock.” Rephrasing this, we should NOT get married to an investment theme.

Prudent investing suggest that we should be taking action based on theory and backed by evidences which either confirms or falsifies it. Confirmation means that we can position to gain profits while a non-confirmation should impel us to consider exiting positions regardless of the profit or loss standings. Learning to manage the state of our emotions reflects on our degree of self-discipline.

And since our understanding of the marketplace shapes our expectations and our attendant actions, we need to seek constant improvement. Expanding our horizons should improve the batting average of our profitability or returns.

Going back to the financial markets, it has been my understanding that the principal drivers of the global financial markets has been the actions of political authorities. Their actions do NOT merely influence the markets, current policymaking via accelerating dosages of inflationism, myriad forms of trading controls and the imposition of byzantine financial and bank regulations represent as direct acts of market manipulation.

Political insider trading not only distorts price signals but importantly politicizes the distribution of gains towards the political class and their benefactors.

In short, in the understanding of the above we just should follow the money.

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[1] Investopedia.com Bull Market Trap

[2] See Definitely Not a Reprise of 2008, Phisix-ASEAN Equities Still in Consolidation, September 18, 2011

[3] See Phisix-ASEAN Market Volatility: Politically Induced Boom Bust Cycles October 2, 2011

Investing Guru Joel Greenblatt: Focus on the Long Term

From Joel Greenblatt, author of The Little Book That Beats The Market and The Big Secret For The Small Investor, as interviewed at the Forbes [bold emphasis added]

if you look at top performers over the last decade, the top 25% of managers that have outperformed – came out with the best record for the last ten years – 97% of those top managers spent at least three years in the bottom half of performance.

79% spent at least three years in the bottom quartile of performance. And almost half, 47%, spent at least three years in the bottom 10% of performance. So all their investors left if they did that, but these are the ones who ended up with the long-term record. Most people leave them, most people don’t stick around for long enough.

Some important pointers from Mr. Greenblatt’s excerpt

Two lessons from planting (farming) which can be applied to investments:

1) time is essential or a prerequisite for a fecund harvest (in equities, outsized payoffs) and

2) we reap what we sow.

From such perspective one should realize that a portfolio built for the long term would likely undergo or endure early testing periods where underperformance represents a necessary but insufficient groundwork for prospective outperformance “Alpha”.

My experience with the domestic mining sector strongly relates to Mr. Greenblatt’s advise—patience ultimately rewarded by a time induced outperformance (following several years of underperformance).

Next, short term yield chasing activities represents as the common sin or shortcomings by the average investor.

Little has such adrenalin rousing actions been comprehended as a tactical folly based on two cognitive biases:

-hindsight bias or “inclination to see events that have already occurred as being more predictable” (or Mr. Warren Buffett’s rear view mirror syndrome) and

-survivorship bias or “logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process” or chasing of current winners or market darlings.

Finally, the short term yield chasing approach vastly underperforms long term portfolios (see chart from Legg Mason’s Michael Mauboussin “A Coffee Can Approach”) since this represents as high risk-low return tactic which significantly diminishes returns.

Bottom line: Focus on the long term on the platform of understanding how the market works or has been evolving. In short, surf the bubble cycles.

From one of Warren Buffett’s best advise ever:

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.

How Global Stock Markets Reacted to the Greece Crisis Resolution

One of my favorite website, Bespoke Invest, has a nice rundown on the performances of 78 world equity benchmarks this week highlighted by the Greece vote on crisis resolution measures.

As expected, most of the benefits accrued to markets that had been most sensitive to the risks of a Euro crisis contagion.

The Philippines have seemingly been indifferent (but not today where the Phisix rose 1.4% to breakout from the massive reverse and shoulder pattern)

But what I find interesting is this comment.

From Bespoke (including chart) [bold emphasis mine]

Looking at year-to-date performance, Bangladesh is down the most with a decline of 26.21%, followed by Peru at -19.20%. Other countries that have really struggled so far in 2011 include Finland, Oman, Malta, Kuwait, Kenya, Vietnam and Brazil. With so much attention being paid to the problems in Greece, you would think that its stock market would be getting absolutely crushed this year, but it's currently down just 9.54%. This obviously isn't a positive number, but it's at least better than ten other countries on the list.

This is true.

I’ve seen many people soooo fixated by the Greece crisis such that they almost see the end of the world take place. This I argued successfully against.

In behavioral science this known as the focusing effect, where people transfix their attention to one event at the expense of the rest.

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb calls this tunneling or “uncertainty of the deluded”

People who tunnel on sources of uncertainty by producing precise sources like the great uncertainty principle or similar, less consequential, matters to real life, worrying about subatomic particles while forgetting that we can’t predict tomorrow’s crises.

Such focusing effect/tunneling vision seems so elaborate on people whom are plagued by political and or economic creeds or those who see the world rigidly in the prism of their (self-righteous) designs and who interprets evolving events that gives much weight on the short term or present oriented actions.

And this is why obsession or getting married to a view/theme can lead to blindspots that can be very fatal.

Aside from the global rally in equities, the Euro-Gold correlations, both have substantially been rallying, have once reaffirmed its relational harmony in defiance of the world according to these ideologues.

Quote of the Day: Focusing Effect

Focusing effect is a mental heuristic where

we tend to weigh attributes and factors unevenly, putting more importance on some aspects and less on others

Again from the prodigious Matt Ridley on interpreting events, (emphasis added)

Another way of making the same point is that good news tends to be gradual, incremental and barely visible, while bad news almost by definition comes in sudden, newsworthy lumps: wars, crashes, disasters, epidemics. It is impossible to see a field of wheat growing, but easy to see it washed away by a flood.

Awesome.

Has China’s Competition For Brides Led To Global Imbalances?

Competition for brides, due to gender imbalance, has led to China’s huge savings. That’s according to a study reported by Wall Street Journal Blog.

Writes the Wall Street Journal, (bold emphasis original italics mine)

Too few brides may be contributing to China’s trade imbalance.

That’s because “desperate parents” are using education and wealth to make their sons stand out as catches in an increasingly competitive marriage market, Professor Wei said.

Speaking on a panel at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on the U.S.-China trade imbalance, Professor Wei said that China’s efforts in the past ten years to step up the social safety net haven’t reassured consumers enough to ease their savings.

Most Chinese consumers save for their children and for retirement, Professor Wei said, a finding put forth in a paper he wrote with Xiaobo Zhang, “The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China.”

Acknowledging that the marriage market was somewhat “outside macroeconomic thinking,” Professor Wei said that his research shows a “very clear pattern” of household savings rates — as well as entrepreneurship — rising as the competition for brides becomes more keen. He and Mr. Zhang, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, elaborated on the phenomenon in another paper, published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, “Sex Ratios, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China.”

The most recent paper explains that areas in China with an acute imbalance of young men seeking wives tend to benefit economically from a high level of hard work and entrepreneurship. The authors attribute this initiative to the competitive marriage market. Young men who want to begin businesses have to turn to their families for start-up money; parents and relatives prepare for that by saving.

My comments:

While there may be some truth to this, which is why this study came about, this seems more of an example of Nassim Taleb’s narrative of Birds do not write books on birds

Think of the following event. A collection of priestly persons from Harvard or some such place lecture birds how to fly. The bird flies. They write books, articles, and reports that in fact the bird has obeyed them, an impeccable causal link. They even believe their own theories. Birds write no such books, conceivably because they are birds, so we never get their side of the story. Meanwhile, the priests broadcast theirs.

I don’t think the desire of every Chinese family to save is about securing a “bride”.

If this is true then once a groom marries, the couple tends to wind down savings as the incentive to acquire a bride has already been achieved. But of course the argument extends to the next generation, thus becomes circular.

Marriage is just a part of our manifold social activities, surely there many other factors involved such the state of undeveloped capital markets, uncertainties over health, cultural quirks, and government policies among many others.

The above is also a good example of the predilection to aggregate people with numbers and of the experts’ tendency to fall for the clustering illusion trap-seeing patterns where there is none.

Moreover, the study also puts into context Jessica Hagy’s graph of social signalling here.

Of course for me global imbalances is no more than another charade where experts try to pass the blame of their national policies to the others.

This is aside from the folly of applying reductio ad absurdum arguments into people’s trading activities, which has been seen and argued in the context of politics, based on statistical figures rather than trading activities as seen from the human dimensions.

Bottom line: Patterns or correlations does not imply causation.

Knowledge Acquisition: The Importance of Information Sourcing and Quality

“The Pen Is Mightier Than The Sword”- coined by Edward Bulwer-Lytton English author, (also attributed to Dr. Jose P. Rizal)

Any serious or prudent investors in the financial markets would normally try to look for ways to improve on one’s returns. That’s if one recognizes what is workable and what isn’t. Thus, the main task of prudent investors in the financial markets is to screen information and theories and test them, and apply those that would seem as the most cogent, accordingly.

But again this isn’t true for many as returns might seem as a secondary importance. That’s because these economic agents obstinately adhere to biased or selectively chosen data (selective perception) which they interpret as applying to the whole (fallacy of composition), fixate on what is current (survivalship bias) while ignoring the rest, apply misleading definitions and embrace self contradictory and inconsistent theories.

I am just repeating what I said before. Sometimes it takes a deluge of information before the message sinks in.

Ignorance versus foolishness

Ignorance is one thing, foolishness is another. People who fail based on ignorance could be looked upon with compassion. They perhaps hardly knew of the consequences of their actions, which were most likely guided by wrong quality or sources of information.

But it’s different when people lose despite being informed or forewarned. This may be called as doggedness or practising financial religion.

For instance, when people refuse to heed of the inherent risks of conflict of interests that may arise among interacting agents[1], they are likely to fall into the Agency problem trap. Information embellished with statistics and presented as facts could mislead investors. It’s clearly an intangible or unseen risk, that’s because investors are likely to be unaware of the underlying incentives behind these presentations, which may shape or influence the way we think and how we allocate our resources.

And for non-exclusive reasons, boom-bust cycle happens because of information too. Credit fuels greed which impels people to look for information that would confirm on their preconceived notions. Bias, thereby, seeks information or analysis which performs the way dopamine functions, to serve the pleasure centers. So like drugs, misleading information will always have a market.

Also, in as much as price distortions from government policies affect the way people think, these are likewise exhibited through literatures. That’s because the mainstream usually focuses on the symptoms which are read as the cause and transmitted to the public as valid information or facts. This is also because mainstream information caters to short term orientation. In short, boom bust cycles occur also when people gorge on too much of false information.

Stakeholder’s Problem, If Birds Can Write

Most have been unwittingly seduced to the oversimplification of reading current events into market prices, for the reason that being wrong may have little consequence to them. In short, it’s usually a stakeholder’s dilemma or stakeholder’s problem[2]—where the incentives to secure knowledge are driven by the degree of stakeholdings.

Take for instance, a person who dabbles with the stock market, as sideline or for entertainment, will likely have a lesser intensity of incentives to acquire knowledge relative to an individual who lives by the stock market. The latter’s perceived risk factor is greater than the former who has other lines of revenues.

The varying situational incentives, thus, become crucial factors in determining knowledge acquisition.

Yet luck also plays a crucial role. Because no matter how wrong one’s ideas can be, for as long as such errors are made on the side of the general trend where the market is headed, market trends eventually remedies on such errors. And as a result, false ideas could lead to a self-attribution or self serving bias which according to Wikipedia.org[3], people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control.

And this also applies even in academics, where wrong models can be seen as “workable”.

Prodigious author of the bestselling book, the Black Swan, Mr. Nassim Taleb writes of a marvellous example of in his forthcoming book[4],

Think of the following event. A collection of priestly persons from Harvard or some such place lecture birds how to fly. The bird flies. They write books, articles, and reports that in fact the bird has obeyed them, an impeccable causal link. They even believe their own theories. Birds write no such books, conceivably because they are birds, so we never get their side of the story. Meanwhile, the priests broadcast theirs.

Behind Media’s Altruisms And Biased Information

And as stated above, the quality and source of information matters.

The most likely source of information are usually the popular ones, such as mainstream media. They cater too our brain’s desire to get fed with visible, emotional, sensational, shocking or graphic linkages.

Take for instance, in the event of a disaster, media routinely appeals to the public to ask for donations. They appeal to the emotions by advocating charity work for the unfortunate victims. Media outfits create an aura where they are seen as doing purely social work. They become instantaneous heroes especially when celebrities lead them.

But this is only half true, what’s not seen is that by connecting to the public’s emotions and wallets they increase viewership on their medium. And the key to their revenues—advertisement—largely depends on the number of audiences. So media’s missives have almost always been attuned towards winning the public’s viewership. It’s like politics in a private format.

Thus for media, intention can be interpreted two ways, social work to help the community or self interests camouflaged by altruism.

In covering political philosophy, this is the same manner why socialism sells, it appeals to emotional center of the brain but are bereft of how “intentions” parlay into reality.

In terms of investment, it’s also the been same. Most people are continually deceived by information aired or disseminated by the media and their cohorts of experts, which for most instances have little value or are irrelevant.

As Rolf Dobelli writes[5],

Out of the approximately 10,000 news stories you have read in the last 12 months, name one that – because you consumed it – allowed you to make a better decision about a serious matter affecting your life, your career, your business – compared to what you would have known if you hadn’t swallowed that morsel of news.

The point is: the consumption of news is irrelevant to the forces that really matter in your life. At its best, it is entertaining, but it is still irrelevant.

Bottom line: information is vital to one’s decision making process, whether applied to the financial markets or in many other vital aspects of life.

The beauty of today’s technological advances is that information is not restricted or centralized but operates from a free market competitive environment.

And I am just part of the multitude of lowly voices here in the cyberspace trying to speak out what I see as true.

And unknown to most, revolutions begins with ideas.

---

[1] See Dealing With Financial Market Information, February 27, 2010

[2] See Philippine Elections: Why I Will Vote For President "None Of The Above”, May 5, 2010

[3] Wikipedia.org, Self-serving bias

[4] Taleb, Nassim Nicolas, Birds Do Not Write Books on Birds, Chapter 8, Anti Fragility

[5] Dobelli Rolf Avoid News, Towards a Healthy News Diet Dobelli.com (hat tip Bryan Caplan)

How Valid is The Concept of American Exceptionalism?

A comment prompted me to share my insight on the so-called American exceptionalism

American exceptionalism, according to Wikipedia.org, refers to the theory that the United States is qualitatively different from other nations.

America is allegedly “qualitatively different” in two ways (from Wikipedia.org):

-via Alexis de Tocqueville, “emergence from a revolution, becoming "the first new nation", and developing a uniquely American ideology, based on liberty, egalitarianism, individualism, populism and laissez-faire”

-via American Communist Party (1920s), their belief that "thanks to its natural resources, industrial capacity, and absence of rigid class distinctions, the United States of America might for a long while avoid the crisis that must eventually befall every capitalist society.

Wikipedia further adds, ``Although the term does not imply superiority, some writers have used it in that sense.”

I would reckon that every nation’s history is in many ways unique or implies exceptionality, except that to quote Winston Churchill, “History is written by the victors”.

This means that the string of America’s successes may have prompted many writers to overconfidently believe that America’s successes represent a permanent state of order.

In my view, this could be analogized to the famous but worrisome Wall Street maxim “This time is different”.

Also the thought of America’s “exceptionalism” seems guilty of what is called as the survivorship bias or to quote the Wikipedia, “the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility”

Moreover, there is a time consistency problem with both assertions: the ideology of liberty, egalitarianism, individualism, populism and laissez-faire can’t be seen as exclusively unique to the American race, since these can be learned and assimilated by other nations. The world does not operate on a vacuum. People learn and adapt.

Alternatively, if these traits represent the core of exceptionalism, then any significant erosion would also risk reducing such perceived ‘exceptionality’.

Thus, exceptionalism largely depends on how the US struggles to maintain this “uniquely American ideology”, and similarly, how other nations respond to incorporate on such success model as their own.

I am less inclined to respond to the American Communist Party view: industrial capacity is simply an output of this “unique American ideology” while natural resources depends on the economic value assigned to it by the market, while the absence of class distinction seems like an opaque premise—all forms of government have ‘rigid’ class distinctions.

Also in response to implications that America had been endowed with wealth by birthright, it must be remembered that the essence of the annual Thanksgiving Day celebration emanates from a painful chapter of US history, where the Pilgrims experimented with and suffered from the collectivist state which eventually prompted them to espouse the “unique American ideology”.

Writes Heritage Foundation Conn Carroll, (bold emphasis mine)

When the first Pilgrims founded the Plymouth Colony, all property was taken away from families and transferred to a “comone wealth.” In other words, the Pilgrims tried to do away with private property. The results were disastrous. According to Bradford, the stronger and younger men resented working for other men’s wives and children “without any recompence.” And the women forced to cook and clean for other men saw their uncompensated service as “a kind of slavery.” The system as a whole bred “confusion and discontent” and “retarded much employment that would have been to [the Pilgrims’] benefit and comfort.” Unable to produce their own food, some settlers “became servants to the Indians,” cutting wood and fetching water in exchange for “a capful of corn.” Others tragically perished.

It was not until private property rights were restored and every man was allowed to “set corn for his own particular” that prosperity came to the colony. Bradford reported, “This had very good success for it made all hands very industrious. … [M]uch more corn was planted than otherwise would have been. … Women went willingly into the field, and took their little ones with them to set corn.”

More, American exceptionalism does not imply that other countries have been accursed to suffer from ‘codified poverty’. This perspective unjustly sees Americans as in a state of permanent entitlement.

There are reasons why society suffers from impoverishment, but the least of which is that people volunteer to be poor.

The principal cause why many are poor is due to economic repression or policies that interdict people to trade, inhibit the exchange of ideas that leads to innovation and importantly suffer from lack of capital.

As Ludwig von Mises once wrote, [bold highlights mine]

What distinguishes contemporary life in the countries of Western civilization from conditions as they prevailed in earlier ages, and still exist for the greater number of those living today, is not the changes in the supply of labor and the skill of the workers and not the familiarity with the exploits of pure science and their utilization by the applied sciences, by technology. It is the amount of capital accumulated. The issue has been intentionally obscured by the verbiage employed by the international and national government agencies dealing with what is called foreign aid for the underdeveloped countries. What these poor countries need in order to adopt the Western methods of mass production for the satisfaction of the wants of the masses is not information about a "know how." There is no secrecy about technological methods. They are taught at the technological schools and they are accurately described in textbooks, manuals, and periodical magazines. There are many experienced specialists available for the execution of every project that one may find practicable for these backward countries. What prevents a country like India from adopting the American methods of industry is the paucity of its supply of capital goods. As the Indian government's confiscatory policies are deterring foreign capitalists from investing in India and as its prosocialist bigotry sabotages domestic accumulation of capital, their country depends on the alms that Western nations are giving to it.

Finally American exceptionalism can be represented by the state of US dollar functioning as the world’s premier currency reserve or forex anchor.

From Google

Looking at the above, I’d say that American exceptionalism has been on a decline and will likely suffer from a further loss of competitiveness, in the condition that her government continues to implement policies that corrodes her “unique American ideology”.