Monday, May 28, 2012

Is Greece Falling into a Failed State?

According to the mainstream media and establishment experts, Greeks supposedly loathed austerity. They wanted “growth”, which is a euphemism for continued unsustainable government spending. If true, then this means that Greeks wanted free lunch.

But many Greeks may have come to realize that there is NO such thing as a free lunch. They needed to pay taxes in return for political entitlements.

Yet Greeks have been balking at doing so.

From Reuters.com/GreeceReporter.com

With anxiety mounting that Greece might vote for anti-austerity parties in the June 17 elections and be forced to leave the Eurozone of 17 countries using the euro as a currency, more Greeks – already legendary tax evaders – have stopped paying taxes. A senior Finance Ministry official on May 23 said that tax revenues have fallen 10 percent while two tax officials who declined to be named told Reuters that May revenues fell by 15-30 percent in tax offices away from the major cities and relative wealth centers of Athens and Thessaloniki.

So Greeks have been refusing to pay taxes. The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing. That’s if the establishment’s assertion is true. Greeks cannot have it both ways.

Yet Greeks realize that if they cannot pay, then they would have to default on their debts.

But the establishment says that the only way to salvation is through devaluation that can only be actualized from an exit. So their prescription: Default by devaluation.

So this ‘exit’ prospect gives further jitters not just to the average Greeks, but to foreign businesses based on Greece, as well. Foreign businesses have been apprehensive about having inadequate laws to cover or protect them once Greece decides to exit.

From the New York Times,

What can companies do when the legally impossible becomes reasonably probable?

Under European Union law, Greece cannot leave the euro. That is the theory. But in practice, any protection the law offers investors could be difficult to enforce, according to lawyers trying to protect their corporate clients against the upheaval sure to follow if Greece were to default on its debts and adopt a new currency.

So their advice is blunt: Remove cash and other liquid assets from Greece and prepare to take a short-term hit on any other investments…

But, apart from trying to ensure that debts are paid promptly and therefore in euros, legal options for companies are limited. Contracts covered by Greek law, particularly for services delivered in Greece, provide little protection against the currency’s being redenominated and devalued — a development regarded as unlikely until recently.

“Greece would, through its laws, be able to amend contracts governed by Greek law or to be performed within the territory of Greece,” Mr. Clark said. “It is the governing law and the place of performance of the contract that is most important.”

International contracts, which might be covered by British, German or Swiss law, would be more likely to be honored in the designated currency, though in some cases the wording of the legal document may be vague.

And even if the law is on their side, companies would find that to extract payment from a Greek company, they would need a judge in Greece to enforce a ruling from a foreign court.

When the average Greeks doesn’t want to pay taxes, and when foreign businesses are either closing shop or transferring elsewhere, then this means that there will be insufficient tax revenues for the current government to finance her survival.

This also means that parasites have severely impaired the hosts, which may mean the prospective extinction of the parasitical relationship.

From FT/IBNLive.in

Greece's public finances could collapse as early as next month, leaving salaries and pensions unpaid unless a stable government emerges from the June 17 election, according to Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister who left office after this month's inconclusive vote.

Mr Papademos warned that conditions were deteriorating faster than expected with cash flow likely to turn negative in early June amid a sharp fall in tax revenues and a loosening of spending controls during two back-to-back election campaigns.

Mounting anxiety that Greece is headed for further political instability and a possible exit from the euro has prompted many Greeks to postpone making tax payments, and has also accelerated outflows of deposits from local banks.

Athens bankers estimate that more than €3bn of cash withdrawn since the May 6 election has been stashed in safe-deposit boxes and under mattresses in case the country is forced to readopt the drachma.

Austerity becomes a NATURAL process as economic reality has been reasserting itself. This exposes the promises of a "state based elixir" as monumental delusion.

The prescription of devaluation has been provoking a bank runs and has been blowing up right ON the faces of establishment experts calling for devaluation.

This brings us to where the Greece might be headed for.

The new Deutsche bank boss calls Greece as a "failed state".

From Irish Times,

The incoming co-chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank today described Greece as a "corrupt" and "failed" state.

"Greece is the only country, I feel, where we can say 'it's a failed state,' it is a corrupt state, corrupt as far as its political leadership is concerned, and obviously other people had to be willing to support this," Juergen Fitschen, who takes up his post next week, said in a speech at a conference in Berlin.

Failed states, are characterized according to Wikipedia.org by

  • loss of control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein,
  • erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions,
  • an inability to provide public services, and
  • an inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community.

Often a failed state is characterized by social, political, and/or economic failure.

In reality “failed states” are mainly products of unsustainable parasitical relationships, whether in Somalia, Chad or Sudan as rated by US think tank Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy.

But this does not necessarily mean social, political and economic failure as commercial operations exists. Otherwise logic says that these nations will have been uninhabited or deserted either through diaspora or death. But this has clearly not been the case.

Ironically, the US Central Intelligence Agency even admits that the number one “failed state” Somalia as having a “healthy informal economy”.

Thus the “inability to provide public services” does not represent reality. The difference is that mainstream cannot swallow or fathom such ideas. And the global political establishment has been repeatedly attempting for “failed states” to go mainstream through foreign interventions.

Instead, what a “failed state” means is that there is no standing government or that imposed government will mostly likely be ignored by society or what could be called “stateless society”.

I am not sure if Greece will technically become a failed state.

What is certain is that we are witnessing the accelerating collapse of a parasitical relationship anchored upon the spendthrift welfare and bureaucratic state.

This validates anew the great Ludwig von Mises who presciently warned more than half a century ago that

An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself.

And like Dr. Marc Faber, the collapse of the current Greece form of government should be bullish for Greeks over the long term (whether through exit or as part of the EU), as Greeks will be compelled to live within the laws of economics through greater economic freedom, and eschew feeding on political parasites.

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