Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur (The world wants to be deceived, so let it be deceived) —Sebastian Brant (also Brandt)
In this issue
What Surprise is in Store for the 2025 Year of the Wooden Snake?
I. 2025: The Year of the Wooden Snake, Zodiac Cycles and Sociology
II. Trump 2.0 and Current Geopolitical Developments
III. Geopolitical Milestones in the Year of the Snake
IV. The Influence of the Year of the Snake on the Global Economy and Financial Markets
V. The Impact of the Year of the Snake on Philippine Politics and Economy
VI. A Comparative Analysis of the Year of the Snake's Impact on the Philippines
VII. Conclusion
What Surprise is in Store for the 2025 Year of the Wooden Snake?
How will the 2025 Year of the Snake impact geopolitics, the global economy, and financial markets? Will it be a year of upheaval or opportunity for the Philippines?
I. 2025: The Year of the Wooden Snake, Zodiac Cycles and Sociology
2025 is the Year of the Wooden Snake. To gain insight into what this might signify, a quote from the article offers a succinct summary.
Chinese new year 2025 is an especially fortuitous one as it is ruled over by the wood snake, a sign associated with wisdom, intuition, and renewal. It’s a combination of an animal (the snake) and an element (wood) that occurs once every 60 years. It promises to be a period full of unique energy with some distinct characteristics…The combination of snake and wood creates a special synergy in which the introspective and transformative energy of the snake is paired with wood’s expansive and balanced nature. (Mendoza, 2025)
Optimism consistently pervades the annual forecasts for the Chinese zodiac calendar. The zodiac embodies a 12-year cycle, each year symbolized by an animal and its associated attributes.
While we remain agnostic about this tradition (and its geomantic counterpart, feng shui), significant events occurring within the year might appear as circumstantial coincidences or could indeed signal potential cyclical patterns within the political economy.
In other words, certain aspects of astrology might intersect with sociological phenomena.
For instance, our analysis of geopolitical developments through the lens of the Chinese zodiac cycles fortuitously resulted in our accurate prediction of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War in February 2022.
Aside from the eroding concerns over the pandemic, potential geopolitical flashpoints for a hot war may occur.
For instance, the US-Russian impasse over Ukraine (Russia’s vehement objection over the slippery slope of NATO’s expansion into her borders) (Prudent Investor, January 2022)
Thus, an examination of global and local developments over 12-year cycles may provide valuable clues for 2025.
II. Trump 2.0 and Current Geopolitical Developments
Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States will be held on January 20th, just 9 days ahead of the Chinese New Year on January 29th. This timing suggests that at the start of his term, he will busily sign numerous Executive Orders (EOs) that could significantly influence the geopolitical landscape this year.
Even before taking office, geopolitical developments have already moved in anticipation of his potential actions.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire, which takes effect on Sunday, January 19th—469 days after the conflict began on October 7, 2023. President-elect Trump reportedly had significant influence over this deal.
Still, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly stated that the ceasefire with Hamas, as discussed with Trump, is intended to be "temporary."
The incoming president is also reportedly considering easing sanctions on Russian oil exports in exchange for a peace deal with Ukraine, while simultaneously exerting pressure on Iran and Venezuela.
While the incoming cabinet has reportedly been filled with pro-Israel lackeys and are hostile towards relations with China and Russia, Trump recently posted a video on his X account suggesting that the Syria and Iraq wars were orchestrated by Israel’s Netanyahu.
Trump also had a phone call with China’s President Xi on January 17th, where both leaders declared on X.com they would “do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe.”
Following the sudden collapse of Assad-led Syria, Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi signed a “comprehensive partnership agreement” on January 17th, likely aimed at deterring any potential aggression from the U.S.-Israel alliance
Donald Trump has added complexity to geopolitics by exerting pressure on his allies.
1. He has cited the need to pursue the acquisition of the Panama Canal.
2. Beyond securing access to critical mineral resources, Trump has proposed the acquisition of Greenland and the annexation of Canada, potentially to extend the U.S. sphere of influence in the Arctic Circle, competing with Russia. This strategy might also serve to divert attention from escalating war tensions with Russia and China.
As historian Eric Margolis suggested, "Trump has started a scramble of imperial rebranding"
3. Additionally, Trump has urged NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP.
4. Could the alleged snubbing of the Philippine leadership at Trump’s inauguration signal a potential shift in US-Philippines foreign relations?
Trump's presidency promises to be a period of intense geopolitical activities, where traditional alliances might be tested, and new power dynamics could emerge, all under the ambitious and often unpredictable deal-making leadership of the 47th President of the United States.
III. Geopolitical Milestones in the Year of the Snake
Based on historical analysis and considering the cyclical nature of the Chinese zodiac, here are significant geopolitical milestones that occurred in various Years of the Snake:
1917: The United States joined the Allies and entered World War I in April 1917. This was a pivotal moment that contributed to the eventual end of the war.
1941: The Bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, prompted the U.S. entry into World War II, significantly altering the course of the conflict.
Operation Barbarossa: Launched on June 22, 1941, this was Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union, marking the beginning of a massive Eastern Front campaign in World War II. This operation was one of the largest military operations in history and had profound effects on the war's outcome.
The Battle of Moscow, marking a turning point on the Eastern Front for the Russians against the invading Germans in World War II, also took place in (October 2) 1941-42. This battle was crucial for halting the German advance into the Soviet Union.
1953: The Korean War concluded with an armistice agreement on July 27, 1953, ending three years of conflict and setting the stage for the division of Korea that persists today.
1965: The U.S. significantly escalated its involvement in the Vietnam War in 1965, marking a major expansion of American military presence in Southeast Asia.
1989: The Tiananmen Square Massacre in China, from April 15 to June 4, 1989, involved the violent suppression of pro-democracy protests, impacting China's international image and domestic politics.
The Fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, marked the end of the Cold War and was a precursor to the reunification of Germany, signaling the decline of the Soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.
2001: The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001, devastated the U.S., leading to the initiation of the War on Terror. This event reshaped global security dynamics.
The War in Afghanistan began 1-month later that year as the U.S. response to the 9/11 attacks, marking the start of a long-term military engagement in the region.
2013: The Syrian Civil War saw increased international involvement in 2013, with discussions around chemical weapon use and subsequent military actions, further complicating the conflict.
The Snake is often linked with transformation, introspection, and unpredictability, suggesting that geopolitical tensions might rise or escalate. The Wood element, associated with growth and expansion, could also signify potential for new power struggles. On the other hand, the introspective nature of the Snake might promote diplomatic efforts and peace negotiations, leading to the conclusion of ongoing conflicts.
In sum, the impact of the Year of the Wood Snake will depend on a complex array of interdependent factors, including global political dynamics, the influence of vested interest groups such as the military-industrial complex, hegemonists, and political elites, as well as leadership decisions and international diplomacy. This year tends to bring significant changes, with the potential for new conflicts to emerge, existing wars to escalate, and the possibility of resolving ongoing disputes, reflecting the intricate interplay of forces during this zodiac cycle.
IV. The Influence of the Year of the Snake on the Global Economy and Financial Markets
The influence of the Year of the Snake on the global economy and financial markets have been significant
1929: The U.S. stock market crash of 1929 precipitated the Great Depression, causing global economic devastation, massive unemployment, and profound financial instability.
1941: U.S. economic mobilization for World War II marked a shift toward a war economy. This also resulted in increased U.S. wartime financing through the issuance of war bonds, a growing national debt and the Fed’s financial repression policies.
World War II also led to the U.S. Lend-Lease Act, which strengthened economic ties between the U.S. and Allied nations.
1965: Often cited as part of the Golden Age of capitalism, 1965 marked a peak in the post-WWII economic boom in Western nations, particularly the U.S. and Europe.
The Bretton Woods System started showing signs of strain mounting due to inflationary pressures and vastly increased spending related to the Vietnam War. (Figure 1, upper graph)
1977: Following the Nixon Shock in 1971, the post-Bretton Woods era led to U.S. dollar weakness and inflationary pressures.
1989: The fall of the Berlin Wall paved the way for Germany's economic reunification.
Global market liberalization advanced, emphasizing free trade and deregulation.
Despite the Bank of Japan's monetary tightening, the Nikkei 225 reached an all-time high of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989, amidst a Tokyo land price crash.
2001: The bursting of the Dot-Com Bubble led to a recession, with considerable stock market losses, particularly in tech stocks, and an eight-month U.S. economic contraction.
The 9/11 attacks further destabilized global markets.
China's accession to the WTO significantly expanded its global trade presence.
2013: The "Taper Tantrum" occurred when Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke announced a potential reduction in bond purchases, causing U.S. bond yields to rise and leading to instability in emerging markets.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major trading partners' currencies, began its nearly 12-year uptrend in 2013. (Figure 1, lower image)
Meanwhile, the Eurozone crisis persisted, with Greece and other nations continuing to face financial instability.
The Year of the Snake has historically been associated with heightened volatility in both geopolitics and domestic politics, and its interconnectedness with economics reveals similar underlying dynamics.
Historically, periods marked by surging asset bubbles, financial system pressures, recessions, and rapid economic expansion have all been part of this recurring cycle.
Looking ahead to 2025, uncertainties abound. However, the growing deep-seated economic imbalances—characterized by unprecedented debt levels, record deficits, and central bank policies favoring easy money—along with rising protectionism, the weaponization of finance, and speculative asset bubbles, all point to an increased risk of significant downside volatility.
V. The Impact of the Year of the Snake on Philippine Politics and Economy
How has the year of the Snake affected the Philippines.
1929: The Great Depression severely impacted the Philippine economy, which was still a U.S. colony, due to its dependence on U.S. markets.
1941: Imperial Japan launched a surprise attack on Clark Field and Iba Field on the opening day of hostilities in the Philippines, a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor. This paved the way for the Japanese occupation, causing massive socio-economic devastation.
1953: Former Defense Secretary Ramon Magsaysay was elected as the seventh President of the Philippines. The post-World War II economic recovery was still underway, with the country grappling with the repercussions of the war, including ongoing rebuilding efforts.
1965: Ferdinand Marcos Sr. was elected the tenth President of the Philippines. His victory marked the beginning of a long tenure in power, eventually leading to the declaration of martial law in 1972.
1977: Since the establishment of Martial Law in 1972, the administration of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. had suppressed political dissent and controlled growing unrest, which resulted in widespread human rights violations.
During this period, the Philippine economy was characterized by massive government spending on infrastructure projects, largely funded through loans. This led to rising external debt, which became a significant issue in the later years of Marcos' rule. In 1977, Marcos issued Presidential Decree 1177, which mandated automatic appropriations for debt servicing.
The imposition of Martial Law coincided with economic instability, partly exacerbated by the global oil crisis, high inflation, and escalating debt levels.
1989: The late 1980s were marked by political turmoil and growing opposition to the regime of Corazon Aquino, who had assumed power after the 1986 People Power Revolution (People Power I).
In 1989, the Reform Armed Forces of the Philippines (RAFP) launched the most serious coup attempt against the Aquino government, among many previous attempts, highlighting dissatisfaction with her leadership and resistance to her reforms.
Despite Aquino's efforts to stabilize the economy, the country continued to face persistent challenges, including high levels of foreign debt and inflation. However, Aquino’s administration made significant strides in implementing market-oriented reforms and privatizing state-run enterprises, though the country still struggled due to global economic conditions and internal political instability.
2001: In January 2001, President Joseph Estrada was ousted in a second People Power Revolution, also known as People Power II, after being accused of corruption. Estrada’s impeachment and subsequent removal from office, amid widespread public protests, marked a significant political transition. Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was sworn in as the new president, though the transition was accompanied by significant political unrest and instability.
At the time, the Philippines was grappling with substantial economic challenges, including the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and declining investor confidence during Estrada's administration.
2013: The Philippine economy showed robust growth, reaching a significant milestone with an upgrade to an investment-grade credit rating by major rating agencies. (Figure 2, topmost chart)
The economy grew at an impressive rate of 6.8% for the year.
Simultaneously, Philippine assets reached key milestones, reflecting strong investor confidence in the market during this period.
The Philippine Stock Exchange’s PSEi 30 had a record-breaking year, hitting new highs in May 2013. (Figure 2, middle diagram)
The Philippine peso rallied to a five-year high, or the US dollar-to-Philippine peso exchange rate fell to a five-year low. (Figure 2, middle chart)
In April 2013, Philippine 10-year bond yields hit all-time lows or Philippine bonds rallied to historic highs. (Figure 2, lowest graph)
In my humble opinion, 2013 signified the genuine bull market peak of the PSEi 30, which has been affirmed by both the USD-PHP exchange rate and the bond markets.
Once again, like its global counterparts, the Year of the Snake in the Philippines has historically coincided with moments of political upheaval, such as the rise and fall of leaders, coup attempts, and the People Power Revolution, as well as economic challenges and heightened volatility like inflation, debt, instability, and periods of market euphoria.
VI. A Comparative Analysis of the Year of the Snake's Impact on the Philippines
Finally, let us provide a concise analysis of the comparative performances during the Year of the Snake.
Nota Bene: The underlying dynamics behind each economic statistic differ from period to period.
Figure 3
The headline GDP experienced its best performance post-independence from the U.S. and post-bellum or post-war recovery in the Water Snake year of 1953, which saw an 8.9% GDP growth. (Figure 3, upper window)
With the exception of 2001, the headline GDP has been rising since then, with 2013 representing its highest level.
However, the Water Snake year of 1953 was followed by a sharp decline in the Wooden Snake year of 1965. If history follows its pattern, could we witness a sharp drop in GDP? Or will the uptrend since 1965 continue?
The average headline GDP during the Year of the Snake since 1953 stands at 5.4%.
Could the Year of the Snake also reflect trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cycle?
The CPI surged from its trough in the Wooden Snake year of 1965 to its peak of 10.7% in 1989, before descending to 2.6% in the Water Snake year of 2013.
Does this suggest a cyclical pattern of three Snake years (or every 24 years)? Or could the CPI rise sharply in the upcoming Wooden Snake year? (Figure 3, lower chart)
The average CPI during the Year of the Snake since 1965 is 6%.
Figure 4
The USD-PHP exchange rate seems inclined to appreciate during the Year of the Snake. It gained in three of the last four Snake years, averaging 4.6%, particularly due to the 2001 return, which coincided with the weakest GDP performance among Snake years. (Figure 4, upper pane)
Moving to the PSE. Since its largest return of 31.24% in 1989, the Philippine’s major equity benchmark, the PSEi 30 has struggled. However, despite its mixed performance, the five Year of the Snake episodes since 1965 have yielded an average return of 4.1%, thanks in large part to the notable gains in 1989. (Figure 4, lower graph)
The Snake years reveal that the USD-PHP's largest returns, the weakest GDP, and the most significant decline in the PSEi 30 share a common denominator: the Metal Snake year of 2001.
Key global events—such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the dot-com recession in the U.S., the 9/11 attacks, and local political upheaval in the Philippines marked by People Power 2, alongside the country's post-Asian Crisis economic challenges in 2001—contributed to this outcome.
VII. Conclusion
In examining the economic patterns associated with the Year of the Snake in the Philippines, we observe a tapestry of significant historical events and economic indicators. From the peak GDP growth in 1953 to the financial turbulence of 2001 and to the financial euphoria of 2013, these years have often been marked by notable shifts in political power, economic policy, market cycles and external shocks with each year adding a unique chapter to the country's economic and political story.
As we look towards 2025, while historical trends provide valuable insights, the future remains uncertain. Given the current global and domestic economic imbalances, the Year of the Snake may again usher in another period of heightened risk and potential volatility. As always, the interplay of external events, governmental actions, and market responses will determine whether the Snake’s legacy of upheaval or opportunity will prevail.
____
References
Corina Mendoza Architectural Chinese new year 2025: Here's what to expect in the year of the Wood Snake January 1 2025
Prudent Investor, What Surprise is in Store for the 2022 Year of the Water Tiger? January 23, 2022
Other Zodiac series
What
Surprise is in Store for the 2023 Year of the Water Rabbit? January 22, 2023
What
Surprise is in Store for the 2024 Year of the Wooden Dragon? February 11,
2024
No comments:
Post a Comment