Distinguishing Luck From Skills In The Financial Markets

``Luck is far more egalitarian than even intelligence. If people were rewarded strictly according to their abilities, things would still be unfair—people don’t choose their abilities. Randomness has a beneficial effect of reshuffling society’s cards.”- Nassim Nicolas Taleb, The Black Swan

In a bullmarket everybody is said to be a genius. This also implies that there will be an explosion of participants masquerading as experts.

Many will be overwhelmed by the attribution bias, where success will be associated with skills rather than the general circumstance of the marketplace or in particular the rising tide or plain old lady luck.

Winnowing the quality of knowledge will thus be a very important factor for any serious investors.

Importantly, to avoid getting trapped into a false sense of security (overconfidence) we should learn how to discriminate between luck and skills.

Information needs to be processed for them to be qualified as knowledge. Yet knowledge is never equal and has individualized traits.

And knowledge becomes skills only when translated into actions. Yet in applying knowledge to actions, where luck is involved, is highly dependent on the classification of the activity.

Figure 1: Legg Mason: Distinguishing Luck and Skills

Some activities have greater influence of luck than the others, as illustrated by the chart in figure 1.

Legg Mason’s Michael Mauboussin elaborates,

“Skill is “the ability to use one’s knowledge effectively and readily in execution or performance.” You can think of skill as a process, or a series of actions to achieve a specific goal. Luck is “the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual.” Luck, in this sense, is above and beyond skill.”

The more variables involved in the nature of activity, the greater luck interplays with action.

So how does one distinguish between luck and skills?

Through mean reversion.

Legg Mason’s Mr. Mauboussin explains[1],

``One point is worth making right upfront: the outcomes of any activity that combine skill and luck will exhibit reversion to the mean. More technically, an extreme outcome (good or bad) will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the mean. Reversion to the mean is a tricky concept, and the relative contributions of skill and luck shed light on its significance for various activities.”

This is true. Predicting the market would seem like a coin toss distribution (50-50%) since markets move only in two opposite directions.

What makes forecasting activities difficult is the sustainability of accuracy. And mean reversion is what Warren Buffett would analogize as “you would only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” When luck runs out experts riding on artificial steak of predictive successes will be exposed for its facade.

For instance, some people claim that they have predicted one or two circumstances wherein the market validated their perspective.

However, if we consider the batting average of their overall predictions, their performances may accrue to be even less than the coin-toss distribution. This means that like a broken clock, they can only be right twice a day. This implies that relying on their expert opinion as basis for securing knowledge for prospective investment actions may not be worthwhile, as they could yield inferior results given their poor forecasting probability. (A noteworthy example would be a prominent University professor who had been on embraced by the media as a guru even when his streak of forecasting appears to have been tainted by a wide margin of error.[2])

Another way to say this is that one can be right for the wrong reasons or what one may call as sheer coincidence. Here, the context of the prediction would be its substance.

Luck versus Skills

Knowing to distinguish between luck and skills are important for several reasons:

1. It serves as a way to institute measurement of tradeoffs among available actions. In other words, economic calculation based on each proposed action and its attendant opportunity costs. Of course one can’t be specific, but instead rely on estimates.

In addition, one must give room or margin of error to variability, randomness and diminishing returns in terms of establishing the prospective asymmetric outcomes.

2. It provides rational feedback mechanism for assumed circumstances. Hence, contingent actions can be devised, where one won’t get caught by nasty “surprises” like a deer freezing in fear when faced headlights.

3. It filters false premises or noise from relevant information or signals.

In pointing out that the predictions of cabdrivers were at no disadvantage with very intelligent persons, Nassim Taleb wrote[3], Cabdrivers did not believe that they understood as much as learned people-really, they were not the experts and they knew it. Nobody knew anything, but the elite thinkers thought that they knew more than the rest because they were elite thinkers, and if you’re not a member of the elite, you automatically know more than the nonelite.

In short biases (economic or political) can obscure anyone from adapting the appropriate balanced or a more open perspective.

Applied to the general failure of most experts to foresee the recent crisis, economist David Colander in his written testimony submitted to the Congress of the United States, House Science and Technology Committee writes[4], (bold highlight mine)

``One of J.M. Keynes’s most famous quotes, which economists like to repeat, highlights the power of academic economists. He writes, “the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.” (Keynes, 1936: 135) What this quotation misses is the circularity of the idea generating process. The ideas of economists and political philosophers do not appear out of nowhere. Ideas that succeed are those that develop in the then existing institutional structure. The reality is that academic economists, who believe themselves quite exempt from any practical influence, are in fact guided by an incentive structure created by some now defunct politicians and administrators.”

The comfort of the crowd (or appeal to popularity), sheer dependence on models and presumptuousness of knowledge (or in Hayek’s term Fatal Conceit) can lead people to mental blindness which may extrapolate to severe miscalculations and eventual losses.

4. Michael Mauboussin suggest that this is also a way to segregate outperformers and laggards, which he calls “framework for understanding whether there’s a “best” participant”

He writes[5],

Transitivity is a key concept in assessing the outcomes of one-on-one interactions. An activity has transitive properties when competitor A beats competitor B, competitor B beats competitor C, and competitor A beats competitor C. Activities dominated by skill tend to be transitive. In contrast, in an activity that is not transitive, competitor A beats competitor B, competitor B beats competitor C, but competitor C beats competitor A. This is the set up of the game rock, paper, scissors. In theory, there is no best strategy in rock, paper, scissors, and chance will dictate the winner of a game, or repeated games. (In reality, people are poor at behaving randomly. For example, in tournament play, competitors throw scissors only 29.6 percent of the time, 3.7 percentage points less than what randomness requires. 13) A number of sports show a lack of transitivity, in part reflecting the nature of match-ups.

5. Importantly, distinguishing luck from skill based action also provides a framework for managing expectations.

This is especially important because of the possibility of the contrasting nature inherent in the expectations of the agent and the principal (agency problem) which could generate tensions or conflicts.

Here Mr. Mauboussin gives a prudent advice,

``Stated differently, you want the investment professionals focused intently on finding opportunities with edge and building sensible portfolios. Career risk is also important. Investment managers seeking long-term excess returns will frequently have portfolios that are very different than the benchmark and that have high tracking error. If the time horizon of either the investment company or the clients is shorter than the time horizon necessary to see the fruition of the investment approach, even skilled managers risk getting fired.” (bold highlight mine)

So principals (investors and punters) and their agents (bankers, stockbrokers, analysts, fund managers) would need to have their expectations aligned so as to maintain harmonious relationship as well as optimize on the skill based advantages of their agents in generating above average relative returns, in spite of the vicissitudes of the marketplace.

Prediction Versus Entrepreneurial Action

For most participants, the timeframe horizon is so narrow such that they presume financial markets as being driven by popular events.

In most occasions they can be so emotionally overwhelmed that they would accept any information as having valid causal linkages to price actions. Others may be in not for the returns, but for the thrill and excitement of market gyrations (entertainment value). Some are enticed by their endemic gambling ticks.

In addition most mainstream analysis are predicated on projecting past performances into the future.

Nassim Taleb rightly points out on this blind spot[6]: when we think of tomorrow we do not frame it in terms of what we thought about yesterday or the day before yesterday. Because of this introspective defect we fail to learn about the difference between our past predictions and the subsequent outcomes. When we think of tomorrow, we just project it as another yesterday. (bold highlight mine)

The important point here is that the pattern seeking nature of most people including experts tends to neglect on the conditional asymmetries involved which led to the outcome of yesterday.

Thus, many experts will err in the belief that yesterday’s conditions will playout similarly tomorrow.

Also, plain vanilla predictions issued by experts can differ with entrepreneurial actions in the sense that analysts may have less stakeholdings in their forecasts.

In other words, experts may not have personal money involved on the markets and could be advancing the latent interests of their employers (institutions) or themselves (subscription services) rather than the interests of principals (ROI). Hence, flowing with the mainstream ideas essentially shields them from the accountability of underperformance—where any negative outcome would be ascribed to general misfortunes (reverse attribution bias).

Another difference is that where the probabilities or the frequency and the substance would serve as an imprimatur for predictive successes for prediction gurus, in the financial markets, it is the magnitude of the gains, arising from their prudent portfolio management that matters most for investors. That’s why understanding crowd psychology and the stages of the market cycles play a far more important role for any serious investors than just interpreting from economic or corporate fundamentals perspective. After all, markets are all about people, their expectations vented through their actions to fulfil certain needs.

Lastly and importantly, we should learn to accept and admit that luck will be playing a big role into shaping relative or absolute returns. It’s because the complexity of nature allows many unseen things or “randomness” to shape decisions, actions and events.

As Nassim Nicolas Taleb wrote in his best seller[7],

``Capitalism is, among other things, the revitalization of the world thanks to the opportunity to be lucky. Luck is the grand equalizer, because almost anyone can benefit from it. The socialist governments protected their monsters, and by doing so, killed potential newcomers in the womb.”

So yes, as an unabashed capitalist, I would certainly count on luck in shaping the performance of my portfolio.

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[1] Mauboussin, Michael J. Untangling Skill and Luck, July 15, 2010 Legg Mason Management

[2] See Wall St. Cheat Sheet: Nouriel Roubini Unmasked; Lesson, October 22, 2009

[3] Taleb, Nassim Nicolas The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable

[4] Colander David written testimony submitted to the Congress of the United States, House Science and Technology Committee, July 20, 2010 coordinationproblem.org, Read and React -- Colander's Testimony on Capitol Hill About Economics

[5] Mauboussin, loc. cit

[6] Taleb, Nassim Nicolas loc. cit

[7] Taleb, Nassim Nicolas loc. cit

Japan’s Currency Intervention, More Inflationism Ahead

``The whole world would then be able to inflate together, and therefore not suffer the inconvenience of inflationary countries losing either gold or income to sound-money countries. All the countries could inflate in a centrally-coordinated fashion, and we could suffer manipulation and nflation by a world government-banking elite without check or hindrance. At the end of the road would be a horrendous world-wide hyper-inflation, with no way of escaping into sounder or less inflated currencies.” Murray N. Rothbard on the Keynesian ideal “Bancor”

How the heck would you expect financial markets to falter with all the new stuff being worked out by major global central banks?

Let us put it this way, Japan has declared a war on her rising currency the Yen[1], which has been erroneously blamed by her government for their domestic economic malaise, by intervening in the currency markets.

This means that the Bank of Japan would have print money to sell yen in order to buy US dollars. And they have commenced on this operation just as China have begun to slow their purchases of US securities[2] —perhaps to accommodate for an appreciation of China’s yuan.

And as we have repeatedly predicted, economic ideology, path dependency and the prevailing low interest rates will prompt governments of major economies to use their respective printing presses to the hilt, in the assumption that money printing has little impact on the economy or the markets.

Policymakers are shown as exceedingly short-term oriented or with little regards to the possible consequences from their present actions.

And their academic and mainstream apologists have provided intellectual support, in the belief that by intervening in the currency market, or by the destroying their currency, they will the save the world. This is a delusion. Never has it been the case where prosperity had been attained by the destruction of one’s currency.

This is no more than a redistribution scheme by the Japanese government aimed at bolstering her exporters (17% of the Japanese economy as of 2007[3]) at the expense of the rest of the domestic economy in order to revive the old model where the US functioned as the world’s major consumption growth engine.

This interventionism could likewise be aimed at maintaining the low interest regime in the US in order to support the US banking system.

Or possibly, this could even signify as a clandestine three cornered coordinated operation with China, as China appreciates her currency by reducing purchases of US assets. Meanwhile, Japan takes over China’s role as the major accumulator of US securities, given the existing fragility of the US banking system.

Implications of the Japanese Yen Interventionism

Japan intervened in the currency markets in 2004. However the conditions of the past would be dissimilar today. Back then, the US was inflating a housing bubble, today, inflationism has been aimed at shoring up the local banking system.

Another, one possible reason Japan had not engaged in rampant inflationism during Japan’s lost decade could due to her cultural idiosyncrasy and a declining population, where Japan had wanted to maintain the value of Yen’s purchasing power. And this has been misconstrued as deflation[4].

Yet we see two problems with Japan’s interventionism.

First, the culture of savings of the Japanese will be jeopardized as the Yen is depreciated against real goods and services, rather than against the US dollar.

This isn’t likely to translate into new investments nor will this approach succeed to reinvigorate the economy. Instead, it could prompt for more capital outflows into commodity and peripheral markets.

Second, since the US has been inflating by keeping the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet bloated, this means that Bank of Japan would not only have to print money but extensively print money WAY AHEAD of the US given the conservative position of the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet (BoJ) [see left window figure 2].

Figure 2: Competitive Devaluation And Record Gold Prices (chart courtesy of Danske Bank and Stockcharts.com)

Competitive Devaluation And Record Gold Prices

So in effect, we now have a three way competitive devaluation among the currencies of major economies, or a race to the bottom which includes the US dollar, the British Pound, and the Japanese Yen.

Thus, almost instinctively the gold market has responded to such development by exploding to new nominal record highs in US dollar terms (right chart-top window).

Priced in the Yen, Gold has likewise polevaulted as the BoJ made official her government’s interventionism in the currency market.

Slowly but surely rising gold prices continue to reflect on the growing cracks in the fiat paper money standard. Eventually the paper money system crumble like experiments in the past.

So as major economies devalue their currencies, we are likely to witness a monumental shift in the search for alternative “store of value” in the commodity markets and in the asset markets of the peripheral “emerging” economies as the ASEAN.

Figure 3: The Previous BoJ Interventionism and the Nikkei 225 (chart courtesy of Danske Bank and yahoo finance)

Japan’s previous interventionism failed to accomplish its goals (see figure 3), it took other factors to fire up a rally in the US Dollar-Japan Yen pair such as the American Jobs Creation Act Of 2004[5] which included a limited period of tax reduced incentives for multinationals who were enticed to repatriate overseas earnings, and others.

So whether this signifies as a standalone operation or a covert three way joint action among China, Japan and the US, the likelihood of the success of BoJ’s actions will likely be limited—unless Japan will aggressively take on more risk by exposing its system to the risk of hyperinflation.

In the past, such interventionism had coincided with the rising Nikkei (right window). With the degree of interventionism likely to be stronger than 2004, we should expect much of these easy money to flow into various assets.

So global bubble cycles are likely to get amplified.

Again all these add up to fly in the face of deflation exponents.

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[1] Japan Times, Government acts to drive down yen, September 15, 2010

[2] Wall Street Journal Blog, Don’t Worry About China, Japan Will Finance U.S. Debt, September 15, 2010

[3] Google public data, Exports as % of the Economy, World Development Indicators

[4] See Japan’s Lost Decade Wasn’t Due To Deflation But Stagnation From Massive Interventionism, July 6, 2010

[5] Investopedia.com American Jobs Creation Act Of 2004

Quote of The Day: Principles of Free Trade

A fantastic quote from Professor Don Boudreaux,

The principles of free trade demand that no government punish its own citizens with trade restrictions. Ever. Even if another government, such as China’s, harms its citizens by forcing them to pay tariffs or subsidies, the principles of free trade demand that our government nevertheless refrain from inflicting like harm on us.

Free trade is the principle that people should be free to spend and to invest their money as they see fit. Period. That principle is in no way contingent upon its acceptance or rejection by other governments.

Exactly.

Another way to say it is that TWO wrongs DO NOT make a right. And this the most common logical fallacy employed by superficial thinking naive protectionists.

OPEC 50th Birthday: 50 Years of Oil Price Manipulation

It’s been 50 years since governments around the world have been manipulating the oil price market.

This from the Economist,

OPEC, the cartel of oil producers, celebrates its 50th anniversary on September 14th. The organisation was founded in 1960 with the explicit purpose of manipulating oil prices by controlling supplies. It has generally proved successful. OPEC controls around 80% of the world's proven reserves and over 40% of the world's production among its 12 member states. The Gulf states that dominate OPEC have the biggest reserves and lowest costs, so can most easily turn the taps on and off when required to keep prices high. Despite the slow return to health of a sickly world economy, oil fetches a lofty $75 a barrel, which Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member reckons is "ideal".

One should note that the cartel, which has been responsible for 40% of the world’s production, holds also 4/5 of the proven reserves. This means that the cartel isn’t limited only to oil production but also in the access to oil reserves for production. Limiting access to production means restricting available supplies.

Of course, the production cartel (OPEC) hasn’t been the only factor. Otherwise the prices of oil would have steadily trekked upwards over the last 50 years.

That’s because there is another cartel involved: the US Federal Reserve, whom represents today’s de facto US dollar standard system.

Monetary inflation by the US Federal Reserve has produced boom bust cycles in oil prices. The US Fed’s loose money policies has been instrumental in the huge price swings in the price of oil by artificially stimulating demand during the boom days, which subsequently resulted to the ensuing busts.

Bottom line: Unseen by the public has been the 50 years of manipulation by different government sponsored cartels that has vastly eroded our purchasing power and has prompted for intensive volatility in the world’s economic trends.

50 years of government “greed” at the expense of the people.

Ironically, the public sees things the opposite way.

Does Importation Drain The Wealth Of A Nation?

This has long been a fallacy used by mercantilists to advance protectionism which had been demolished by classical economics led by Adam Smith.

In short, the answer is NO.

First, accounting equations does NOT replace the essence of human actions.

Where GDP=private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports-imports), the impression derived from exports minus imports is that imports signify a drag to the economy.

This is plain nonsense. Exports and imports are activities of individuals who engage in voluntary exchange. And no one would willingly undertake trade if there are no perceived benefits from it.

And this also applies to people trading with one another from different countries. To quote Professor Don Boudreaux, “Consumers’ nationalities are economically irrelevant.”

Second, trade is NOT a zero sum game.

It is not what Michel de Montaigne (1533–1592) calls as “no profit can possibly be made but at the expense of another” from which Professor Ludwig von Mises calls as the Montaigne fallacy.

Trade is voluntary exchange via division of labour. We trade for the purpose of attaining things or services which we cannot provide to oneself, and in exchange, provide things or services that we have which the others want.

Trade isn’t mechanistic. It arises from individual choices and preferences.

Third, money should NEVER be confused with wealth.

As Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations wrote, (bold emphasis mine)

Some of the best English writers upon commerce set out with observing that the wealth of a country consists, not in its gold and silver only, but in its lands, houses, and consumable goods of all different kinds. In the course of their reasonings, however, the lands, houses, and consumable goods seem to slip out of their memory, and the strain of their argument frequently supposes that all wealth consists in gold and silver, and that to multiply those metals is the great object of national industry and commerce.

Exactly. This especially for people who argue from the basis of their political religion.

And the principal aim of trade isn’t to accumulate money, but to benefit from the exchange of goods and services.

Again Adam Smith,

The importation of gold and silver is not the principal, much less the sole benefit which a nation derives from its foreign trade. Between whatever places foreign trade is carried on, they all of them derive two distinct benefits from it. It carries out that surplus part of the produce of their land and labour for which there is no demand among them, and brings back in return for it something else for which there is a demand. It gives a value to their superfluities, by exchanging them for something else, which may satisfy a part of their wants, and increase their enjoyments.

Fourth, money in a free market is self-regulating and that interventionism will NOT prevent outflows...

Again Adam Smith,

The quantity of every commodity which human industry can either purchase or produce naturally regulates itself in every country according to the effectual demand, or according to the demand of those who are willing to pay the whole rent, labour, and profits which must be paid in order to prepare and bring it to market. But no commodities regulate themselves more easily or more exactly according to this effectual demand than gold and silver; because, on account of the small bulk and great value of those metals, no commodities can be more easily transported from one place to another, from the places where they are cheap to those where they are dear, from the places where they exceed to those where they fall short of this effectual demand...

When the quantity of gold and silver imported into any country exceeds the effectual demand, no vigilance of government can prevent their exportation.

Finally those who preach mercantilism DO NOT argue for the benefit of the entire society but argue for the interest of a select few.

According to Jacob Viner in the Studies in the Theory of International Trade [1937]

The mercantilist literature, on the other hand, consisted in the main of writings by or on behalf of “merchants” or businessmen, who had the usual capacity for identifying their own with the national welfare. Disinterested exposition of trade doctrine was by no means totally absent from the mercantilist literature, and in the eighteenth century many of the tracts were written to serve party rather than self. But the great bulk of the mercantilist literature consisted of tracts which were partly or wholly, frankly or disguisedly, special pleas for special economic interests. Freedom for themselves, restrictions for others, such was the essence of the usual program of legislation of the mercantilist tracts of merchant authorship.

Restricting trade is a way to impoverishment.

Philippine Phisix In A Historic Breakaway Run!

``Genius is the act of solving a problem in a way no one has solved it before. It has nothing to do with winning a Nobel prize in physics or certain levels of schooling. It's about using human insight and initiative to find original solutions that matter. Genius is actually the eventual public recognition of dozens (or hundreds) of failed attempts at solving a problem. Sometimes we fail in public, often we fail in private, but people who are doing creative work are constantly failing. When the lizard brain kicks in and the resistance slows you down, the only correct response is to push back again and again and again with one failure after another. Sooner or later, the lizard will get bored and give up.” Seth Godin

After this week’s remarkable and historic breakout by the Philippine Phisix to a fresh all time nominal record highs, we should be having our victory lap.

Another Sweet Vindication

Sorry I can’t help but vent this pleasant and pleasurable feeling of total exoneration: I TOLD YOU SO!

That’s because it’s been years since my analysis and forecasts have been met by various incredulous expressions of scepticisms from almost all quarters.

And it’s not just the breakout that matters; it has been the operational process of the domestic and global financial markets which seems to have aligned in near precision with our analytical methodology predicated mostly upon a combination of non-mainstream theories: Austrian economics, Public choice theory, Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability hypothesis, George Soro’s reflexivity theory, Alvin Toffler’s “Knowledge Economies”, behavioural finance (Nassim Taleb) and other theories on psychology (e.g. PTSD, Pavlov’s experiment).

Given the momentous force that had accompanied the recent breakout, wherein a whopping 9.44% of accrued gains had been established over the last two weeks, one should expect to see a reprieve over the coming week/s.

We don’t know of the scale of the pause, whether it should signify a substantial correction or a mere consolidation. But we know one thing: no trend goes in a straight line, and that the upcoming countertrend should signify as an opportunity to accumulate than for exit.

As we have previously pointed out, not all bullmarkets are like[1]. As the growing conviction phase of the bubble cycle deepens, as represented by the recent buyside calls of “Golden Era”[2], one should expect to see heightened volatility in market actions which means more frequent explosive moves.

Timing the markets, unless one is very lucky, could translate to lost opportunities, as sharp losses can equally translate to even swifter recoveries.

As a side note, attribution bias, or claiming skills as reasons for ‘trading’ successes, will predominate the coming atmosphere. This especially will be amplified for retail participants, but unknowingly for most, they would be just plain lucky, as the rising lifts most if not all boats.

In a bullmarket, as an old saw goes, everyone is a genius.

Peso Remains A Buy, Politicizing Market Success (Peso Bond Float)

Figure 1: Yahoo/Bloomberg: Milestone Phisix, Lagging Peso

The difference in today’s secular bullmarket compared with the past (1986-1997) is that this time the Phisix (right window) will be accompanied by a rising Philippine Peso. Lately the Peso has apparently lagged (left window).

In late 2007 where the Phisix made a new high, the Peso likewise belatedly caught up and peaked in January of 2008 (Php 40 to a US dollar).

And perhaps we can expect the same trailing performance by the Peso as foreign fund flows (compounded by immigrant and OFWs) into local assets magnify the demand for the Peso.

Meanwhile, the monetary accommodation by the US government and other developed economies will enlarge relative supply scale of the money supplies in favour of ASEAN and Asian currencies.

Importantly, the sustainability of the relative outperformance between asset prices of developed economies and that of the ASEAN (or emerging Asia) powered by the divergences of monetary policies will prompt for more inflows into the region.

And one of the glaring example of the unfolding of such dynamics has been the recent success by the $1 billion Peso bond float.

Yet like always, unfortunately events like this will always be tainted with political colour, as political personalities speedily associate these events with populism.

As we have argued this administration has been so image conscious, such that it would seem that the elections have never ended. To impute the successful bond float to “landslide vote of confidence[3]” for the new administration is no less than PR work meant at propping up imagery of the administration, even if the relevance of the purported linkages were less than half true or constitutes a logical fallacy.

Figure 2: AsianBondsonline.adb.org[4]: Size and Composition of Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets

The alleged “vote of confidence” does not consider the larger spectrum which would show that the region’s local currency bonds markets have been vastly improving (see figure 2).

In fact, the Philippines have lagged our Asian neighbours and falls below the average performance of the total Emerging Asia, (perhaps even if we add the latest US $1 billion float).

So on a relative scale, the vote of confidence on the Philippines isn’t that impressive, because investors have voted with more confidence on the markets of Thailand (which ironically just experienced a nasty city-wide riot[5] last May), Indonesia and has only been at par with Malaysia.

Given the above picture, I would dare argue that even under the past unpopular regime, the bond issuance would have had a similar magnitude of “warm” reception.

That’s because in a world where prices have been distorted by government’s manipulation of the interest rate (price of time), people conjure up all sorts of excuses, valid or not, just to chase for yields. In short, as the reflexivity theory would say, prices shape opinions.

Yet politicians are quick to grab credit for any actions as their own doing even if these are unrelated, unsupported or has little correlations.

And evidence from the above exhibits that politics have had little effect on the supposed “vote of confidence” of the latest Philippine bond float (or even applied to Thailand).

Another reason why the Philippine Peso has lagged has been due to domestic politics[6]. Particularly that of the politics of OFWs, and secondarily, of the exporters.

So yes, the Peso remains a buy and should be expected to appreciate towards the 40-levels by the yearend, barring any unforeseen circumstances (e.g. war on Iran) and unless our central bank will match the US Federal Reserve in inflating the system (our tail risk).

Unlikely A US Double Dip Recession

These sanguine forecasts are likewise predicated on the conditions that there will be NO double dip recession in developed economies, as a recession will likely drain liquidity in the global financial system despite the proclivity of central banks to counteract such dynamics by flooding the system with money.

Unless we can see further proof where domestic liquidity can get insulated from a liquidity drain abroad, it would be imprudent to bet against “convergence”, which apparently have been the hallmark of globalization.

And a recession is NOT inevitable for earlier reasons cited[7] plus some additional inputs:

1. Global central banks have placed under their stringent sponsorship the banking industry.

Unlike the Great Depression where collapsing banks had a domino effect throughout the economy, today global central banks led by US has backstopped their banking system (specifically creditors) with trillions of taxpayer money. This signifies as a pyrrhic short term victory whose enormous costs would certainly emerge sometime in the future.

Yet it would be a folly for the mainstream to declare victory on what is clearly a short-term panacea. Paying the Piper will be different from what the mainstream expects.

2. Globalization continues to progress.

In contrast to the Great Depression, collapsing banks, protectionism and regime uncertainties via a slew of massive regulatory obstacles caused a standstill and a decline in trade and investments. This is hardly today’s picture.

During the height of the recent crisis, marked by the Lehman bankruptcy, the near seizure of the US banking system rippled throughout the global banking system. However, many entities persisted to trade and channelled them via barter[8] and local currency[9]. And this empirically disproved the mainstream notion that the crisis was one of the failures of aggregate demand. Thus, the mainstream had been caught unaware of the 2009 “recovery” which was likewise supported by the Fed’s (Quantitative Easing) printing press.

Importantly, while the banking system of crisis affected areas like the US have resulted to large scale deterioration in the credit conditions as the crisis culminated, there appears to be material improvement over some aspects of the credit markets as previously discussed[10]. It is likely that the credit markets in the US could finally be responding to the yield curve dynamics which cyclically has had a 2-3 year lag period[11].

Another feature of globalization has been the financing dynamics outside of the banking system, or in particular the explosive growth of the bond markets.

According to Bloomberg[12],

``Global high-yield bond sales are poised to exceed 2009’s record issuance as the riskiest companies take advantage of plunging borrowing costs and investor demand to refinance debt.”

So while the permabears continue to tunnel onto the credit growth as a reason to argue for another recession, the complexities brought about by globalization is certainly keeping them on the wrong side of the fence.

Finally, in contrast to conventional wisdom, credit isn’t the foundation growth, savings is.

As the great Professor Ludwig von Mises wrote[13],

The only source of the generation of additional capital goods is saving. If all the goods produced are consumed, no new capital comes into being.

Figure 3: Deutsche Bank[14]: The Rising Impact Of Asia On The Global Economy

Flushed with savings, emerging markets have not optimized the utility of savings into investments due to their underdeveloped state of the markets (see figure 3). However, globalization appears to be reconfiguring this role as markets are liberalized to accommodate on foreign investments.

Yet of course, artificially suppressed interest rates have been also been a major factor into generating policy “traction” or having to accelerate such dynamics.

And for as long as interest rates will remain at über-accommodative levels in developed economies, emerging markets, like the Philippines, should generally be expected to outperform compared to the debt hobbled counterparts in developed economies.

3. More signs of transition to the Information Age.

The transition to the information age is no more than an extension of the highly competitive and increasingly diversified markets brought about globalization that has spurred massive technological innovation.

Most experts still use industrial age metrics to measure economic activities, which has increasingly become obsolescent. To analogize, the mainstream still think in terms of analog instead of digital, even when many of them increasingly use digital instruments to transact or engage in commerce or conduct many activities in their lives.

In the US, since the adjustment process from a bubble economy to a rediscovery phase takes a longer period, especially in the light of a growing specialization of trade patterns, government intervention only delays these rediscovery phase.

Nevertheless, signs of such transitions have become manifest as seen in the growing mismatch between job availability (high skilled) and manpower supply (labor exposed to malinvestments) as we have pointed out earlier[15].

It isn’t necessarily that there has been a paucity of jobs, but in many instances, the skills required for specialized jobs have been inadequate or have been in a mismatch. And this has mainly been due to the distortive effects from previous inflationary policies that has caused massive misdirection of use in terms of labor and resources. And currently, interventionist policies (unemployment benefits, Obamacare, prospects of higher taxes et.al.) have proven to be an obstacle in the retooling process required for their labor force to adapt to the new reality.

Additionally the latest trade data shows that capital spending has led the economic growth of the US, which has mostly been seen in the industrial machinery and computer exports sectors.

As this Wall Street Journal article illustrate[16],

``While capital projects abroad, especially in emerging economies, are designed to expand production capacity, U.S. businesses are spending to modernize existing facilities and to boost productivity in their work force. Business spending on equipment accounted for one-third of gross domestic product growth in the first quarter and almost all of second-quarter GDP growth.

``The increased foreign demand, coupled with spending here in the U.S., is why business equipment is leading economic growth. U.S. output of business equipment jumped 11.7% in the year ended in July, compared with a 7.7% gain for all manufacturing production.

So specialization, division of labor and comparative advantages highlight substantial part of the economic conditions in the US.

In short, for the mainstream there is alot more for them to chew on, which apparently they refuse to do.

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[1] See How To Go About The Different Phases of The Bullmarket Cycle, August 23, 2010

[2] See The Rationalization Phase Begins: ‘Golden Era’ Equals The ‘New Paradigm’?, September 8, 2010

[3] Inquirer.net Peso bond sale nets $1B, September 11, 2010

[4] AsianBondsonline.adb.org, Asian Bond Monitor: Summer Issue Bond Market Developments in the First Quarter of 2010

[5] See Politics And Markets: Bangkok Burns Edition, May 20, 2010

[6] See Global Policy Divergences Favors A Rising Peso, August 22, 2010

[7] See Why Deflationists Are Most Likely Wrong Again, August 15, 2010

[8] See What Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Have To Do With Today’s Financial Crisis, February 1, 2009

[9] See Emerging Local Currencies In The US Disproves The 'Liquidity Trap’, February 16, 2010

[10] See The Road To Inflation, August 29, 2010

[11] See Influences Of The Yield Curve On The Equity And Commodity Markets, March 22, 2010

[12] Bloomberg.com, Treasury 10-Year Note Yields Climb to One-Month High on Economy, September 10, 2010

[13] Mises, Ludwig von The Anti-Capitalistic Mentality by Ludwig von Mises, Section 4

[14] Lanzeni Maria Laura Lanzeni The Rising Impact Of Asia On The Global Economy June 2010

[15] See US Unemployment: It’s Partly About Skills-Jobs Mismatch, August 10, 2010

[16] Madigan Kathleen, Trade Data Show Importance of Capital Goods Wall Street Journal Blog, September 10, 2010

The Upcoming Boom In The Philippine Property Sector

``The dominant ideology favors “cheap money.” It also favors high commodity prices, but not always high stock market prices. The moderated interest rate is intended to stimulate production and not to cause a stock market boom. However, stock prices increase first of all. At the outset, commodity prices are not caught up in the boom. There are stock exchange booms and stock exchange profits. Yet, the “producer” is dissatisfied. He envies the “speculator” his “easy profit.” Those in power are not willing to accept this situation. They believe that production is being deprived of money which is flowing into the stock market. Besides, it is precisely in the stock market boom that the serious threat of a crisis lies hidden.” Ludwig von Mises

Here is one more prediction.

The current “boom” phase will not be limited to the stock market but will likely spread across domestic assets.

This means that over the coming years, the domestic property sector will likewise experience euphoria.

For all of the reasons mentioned above, external and internal liquidity, policy divergences between domestic and global economies, policy traction amplified by savings, suppressed real interest rate, the dearth of systemic leverage, the unimpaired banking system and underdeveloped markets—could underpin such dynamics.

As one would note from the ADB chart[1], following the Asian Crisis, ASEAN economies have had little exposure to property loans.

And despite the recent surge in property prices in developed Asia[2], this hasn’t reached frothy levels yet, except for Hong Kong.

Thus the environment of low leverage and prolonged stagnation in property values is likely to get a structural facelift from policy inducements, such as suppressed interest rates which are likely to trigger an inflation fuelled boom by generating massive misdirection of resources-or malinvestments.

Of course many would argue on a myriad of tangential or superficial reasons: economic growth, rising middle class, urbanization and etc... But these would mainly signify as mainstream drivels, as media and the experts will seek to rationalize market action on anything that would seem fashionable.

And the business cycle will be left unheard of until perhaps the realization of a bust.

As Murray N. Rothbard explained[3] (bold emphasis mine)

``For businessmen, seeing the rate of interest fall, react as they always would and must to such a change of market signals: They invest more in capital and producers' goods. Investments, particularly in lengthy and time-consuming projects, which previously looked unprofitable now seem profitable, because of the fall of the interest charge. In short, businessmen react as they would react if savings had genuinely increased: They expand their investment in durable equipment, in capital goods, in industrial raw material, in construction as compared to their direct production of consumer goods.

``Businesses, in short, happily borrow the newly expanded bank money that is coming to them at cheaper rates; they use the money to invest in capital goods, and eventually this money gets paid out in higher rents to land, and higher wages to workers in the capital goods industries. The increased business demand bids up labor costs, but businesses think they can pay these higher costs because they have been fooled by the government-and-bank intervention in the loan market and its decisively important tampering with the interest-rate signal of the marketplace.”

If I read into the price actions of the major components of the publicly listed Philippine property sector, arranged according to biggest weighting: Ayala Land (ALI-black candle), SM Prime Holdings (SMPH-gray line), Megaworld (MEG-blue line), Robinsons Land (RLC-maroon line), Filinvest Land (FLI-green), Belle Resources (BEL-pink) Vista Land (VLL-red) and SM Development Corp (SMDC-orange) they seem to chime on the same tune—a forthcoming property boom.

And please don’t insist of any outlandish and unproven micro-fundamental based actions (earnings, dividends and etc...) because the picture clearly shows that in the uniformity of price actions, there isn’t any.

Instead it has clearly been my Machlup-Livermore paradigm at work.

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[1] ADB.org Asian Economic Monitor, July 2010

[2] Deutsche Bank, Asian property markets: No significant bubbles – yet!, June 23, 2010

[3] Rothbard, Murray N. Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure

3 Philippine Firms Among Forbes Asia’s Top 200 Smallest and Midsize Companies

Forbes magazine issued its index of the 200 top small scale and midsized companies of Asia (with $1 billion revenues and below)

Some highlights presented by Forbes:

-China maintains the most with 71 but is down from 78 last year

-Indian companies shot up to 39 from 20 last year

-Vietnam made a debut with Vinamilk

-only 2 Japanese companies made cut down from 24 last year

-151 names are new compared to 2009 list

-technology companies (hardware and software) seem to be making the growth inroads as well health care issues

Additional comment:

Among the ASEAN 4: Thailand has 11, Malaysia has 7, Philippines has 3 while Indonesia has one

See the complete list here

For the Philippines: They include Lopez Holdings (classified as media), Pacific Online system (household products) and Philweb (software services)

See charts below: (note: this does NOT in anyway represent a stock TIP)

Lopez Holdings (LPZ)

Pacific Online (LOTO)

Philweb (WEB)

Cyberspace: A Battleground Between Socialism and Free Markets

Governments are going to have a hard time trying to control the cyber space.

According to the Economist,

GOVERNMENTS are increasingly finding ways to enforce their laws in the digital realm. The most prominent is China’s “great firewall”. But China is by no means the only country erecting borders in cyberspace. The OpenNet Initiative, an advocacy group, lists more than a dozen countries that block internet content for political, social and security reasons. They do not need especially clever technology: governments go increasingly after dominant online firms because they are easy to get hold of. In April Google published the numbers of requests it had received from official agencies to remove content or provide information about users.

Based on his recent article, security expert Bruce Schneier would say that web regulation is a folly.

That’s because of three things:

1. It would mean a massive war against deepening spontaneous order, division of labor and diversity.

Internet is the largest communications system mankind has ever created, and it works because it is distributed. There is no central authority. No nation is in charge. Plugging all the holes isn't possible.

2. To engage in cyberspace control means censorship. It’s also a war waged against the spread of knowledge with stark ramifications.

The second flawed assumption is that we can predict the effects of such a shutdown. The Internet is the most complex machine mankind has ever built

3. The complexities of the cyberspace extrapolates to manifold loopholes and action-reaction dynamics.

The third flawed assumption is that we could build this capability securely. We can't. Once we engineered a selective shutdown switch into the Internet, and implemented a way to do what Internet engineers have spent decades making sure never happens, we would have created an enormous security vulnerability. We would make the job of any would-be terrorist intent on bringing down the Internet much easier.

Mr. Schneier concludes,

Computer and network security is hard, and every Internet system we've ever created has security vulnerabilities. It would be folly to think this one wouldn't as well. And given how unlikely the risk is, any actual shutdown would be far more likely to be a result of an unfortunate error or a malicious hacker than of a presidential order. But the main problem with an Internet kill switch is that it's too coarse a hammer. Yes, the bad guys use the Internet to communicate, and they can use it to attack us. But the good guys use it, too, and the good guys far outnumber the bad guys. Shutting the Internet down, either the whole thing or just a part of it, even in the face of a foreign military attack would do far more damage than it could possibly prevent. And it would hurt others whom we don't want to hurt.

At the end of the day, one of the two forces (free markets versus socialism) would have to yield. Guess who?

Even Fidel Castro Seems To Have Given Up On Socialism

Still dreaming of the magic of socialism?

Even practitioner Cuba’s former president Fidel Castro seems to have given up on the failed model.

This from Yahoo news.

Fidel Castro told a visiting American journalist that Cuba's communist economic model doesn't work, a rare comment on domestic affairs from a man who has conspicuously steered clear of local issues since stepping down four years ago.

The fact that things are not working efficiently on this cash-strapped Caribbean island is hardly news. Fidel's brother Raul, the country’s president, has said the same thing repeatedly. But the blunt assessment by the father of Cuba's 1959 revolution is sure to raise eyebrows.

Jeffrey Goldberg, a national correspondent for The Atlantic magazine, asked if Cuba's economic system was still worth exporting to other countries, and Castro replied: "The Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore" Goldberg wrote Wednesday in a post on his Atlantic blog.

To put things in perspective, Cato’s Dan Mitchell observes that economic growth in Cuba has stagnated throughout the years of socialism. This is sharply in contrast to Chile whose economic growth has exploded following the latter’s embrace of economic freedom.

From Mr. Mitchell, (bold emphasis mine)

This chart, comparing inflation-adjusted per-capita GDP in Chile and Cuba, is a good illustration of the human cost of excessive government. Living standards in Cuba have languished. In Chile, by contrast, the embrace of market-friendly policies has resulted in a huge increase in prosperity. Chileans were twice as rich as Cubans when Castro seized control of the island. After 50 years of communism in Cuba and 30 years of liberalization in Chile, the gap is now much larger.

Thus, I am reminded by the prescience of Mr. Ludwig von Mises who again has been validated when he wrote... (bold emphasis mine)

All efforts to realize Socialism lead only to the destruction of society. Factories, mines, and railways will come to a standstill, towns will be deserted. The population of the industrial territories will die out or migrate elsewhere. The farmer will return to the self-sufficiency of the closed, domestic economy. Without private ownership in the means of production there is, in the long run, no production other than a hand-to-mouth production for one's own needs...

It might so happen that some nations would remain socialistic while others returned to Capitalism. Then the socialist countries alone would proceed towards social decline. The capitalist countries would progress to a higher development of the division of labour until at last, driven by the fundamental social law to draw the greatest number of human beings into the personal division of labour, and the whole earth's surface into the geographical division of labour, they would impose culture upon the backward nations or destroy them if they resisted. This has always been the historical fate of nations who have eschewed the road of capitalist development or who have halted prematurely upon it.

Socialism is ever the elusive utopia which appears to thrive successfully only in the mindset of those who refuse the functionalities of the real world.

Are Food Shortages The Result of Extreme Weather?

This news from yahoo says so,

Deadly riots in the streets of Mozambique over sharply higher food prices have left 13 dead. Anger is growing in Egypt and Serbia as well. Panicked Russian shoppers have cleared the shelves of staple grains. And the devastating floods that have left as many as 10 million Pakistanis homeless are also raising concerns about the country's ability to feed itself.

A series of isolated disasters? Not at all. The common thread: extreme weather, which is putting pressure on food supplies around the globe.

Like any politically biased article, this seems focused on a post hoc fallacy (after this, therefore because of this) argument.

Extreme weather conditions has exacerbated but not caused the existing imbalances or shortages.

In almost every instance, shortages happens when the price mechanism isn’t allowed to function.

And because agriculture is one of the most, if not the most, politically sensitive sector in any economy, it has been the least open to international commerce, hence, the inherent imbalances from the lack of trade and investments which extrapolates to reduced output or the lack of supply. In short, supply constrains have been caused by government policies which has distorted the price mechanism.

This is especially accentuated in developing economies whom lacks capital to develop idle lands which has been aggravated by aforementioned protectionist measures.

Subsequently this has resulted to a massive loss in productivity from the underlying mismatch in the yield gaps and the land availability (abundance of fallowed lands) as shown below by the most recent World Bank Study Rising Global Interest In Farmlands.

Of course, the law of demand and supply has always been at work, such that in the recent episode where food prices spiked in 2007-8 combined with the recent trends of globalization, governments have used current dynamics to exploit on these gaps by allowing for crossborder investments (seen below).

So obviously the answer to the problem of shortages is to allow markets to function, which hopefully the du jour acceptance of globalization might diffuse openness into the world’s agriculture sector.

And of course, no one has been talking about the way global governments have been printing money which has been artificially boosting demand for food and obversely depreciating value of currency relative to real goods.

For the mainstream, what is NOT sensational but real, hardly matters.

Quote of the Day: The Future of Labor

Here is a great post labor day quote from marketing guru Seth Godin,

In a world where labor does exactly what it's told to do, it will be devalued. Obedience is easily replaced, and thus one worker is as good as another. And devalued labor will be replaced by machines or cheaper alternatives. We say we want insightful and brilliant teachers, but then we insist they do their labor precisely according to a manual invented by a committee...

Companies that race to the bottom in terms of the skill or cost of their labor end up with nothing but low margins. The few companies that are able to race to the top, that can challenge workers to bring their whole selves--their human selves--to work, on the other hand, can earn stability and growth and margins. Improvisation still matters if you set out to solve interesting problems.

The future of labor isn't in less education, less OSHA and more power to the boss. The future of labor belongs to enlightened, passionate people on both sides of the plant, people who want to do work that matters.

In the ongoing transition to the information age, investments, trade and jobs will require increasing patterns of diversity and specialization. And as pointed out by Mr. Godin, those who focus on the mediocre will suffer from commoditized wages and profit margins and will be subjected to rigors of tight competition.

Finally, this also shows how labor, like capital, isn’t homogeneous.

The Rationalization Phase Begins: ‘Golden Era’ Equals The ‘New Paradigm’?

As George Soros would probably say this would represent as the ‘growing conviction’ phase, as prices begin to influence fundamentals and people’s outlook by rationalizing price action for real changes.

This from Bloomberg,

Philippine and Malaysian stock markets may soon end 16 years of stagnation and enter a “golden era,” according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets technical analysts.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index is testing its record high reached on Oct. 8, 2007, after fluctuating between support at 975 to 1,075 and resistance at 3,447 to 3,896 since 1993, CLSA analysts led by Laurence Balanco said. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index is also poised for a breakout after it “drifted net-sideways” below the 1,332 to 1,524 range since 1994, the analysts wrote in a report.

The “secular bear markets” in the two Southeast Asian countries may be similar to ones in South Korea from 1989 to 2005, Indonesia from 1990 to 2004, India from 1992 to 2004, Singapore from 1994 to 2006, and the U.S. from 1966 to 1982, according to CLSA. Since then, benchmark indexes in the five countries have rallied at least 51 percent and posted gains of as much as 282 percent, the analysts said.

“If the PSE index and the KLCI are to adhere to these common secular bear market patterns, then both markets are on the cusp of entering a new long-term bull market phase,” the analysts wrote.

A “conclusive” breakout above 3,896 could take the Philippine gauge to 6,752 “in the years to come,” according to the analysts. Still, they said the market may yet pause as it approaches the resistance zone and as the benchmark index completes a five-wave sequence from the October 2008 low.

Golden Era equals the “New Paradigm”?