Heroes of Capitalism: The Humble Shipping Container

Many people hardly appreciate on the role played by the advances in technology in shaping social progress. Think the discovery of fire which initially allowed humans to cook, obtain warmth and protection. Fire eventually became important part of production. 

Other milestone innovative technologies such as the Gutenberg printing press, the steam engine and today’s internet has dramatically transformed people’s lifestyle.

For the majority, technology advances “just happens”, they hardly have an inkling of how these things take place.

There is one significantly underappreciated hero of global trade: the shipping container

The Economist explains: (hat tip Prof Mark Perry)

THE humble shipping container is a powerful antidote to economic pessimism and fears of slowing innovation. Although only a simple metal box, it has transformed global trade. In fact, new research suggests that the container has been more of a driver of globalisation than all trade agreements in the past 50 years taken together.

Containerisation is a testament to the power of process innovation. In the 1950s the world’s ports still did business much as they had for centuries. When ships moored, hordes of longshoremen unloaded “break bulk” cargo crammed into the hold. They then squeezed outbound cargo in as efficiently as possible in a game of maritime Tetris. The process was expensive and slow; most ships spent much more time tied up than plying the seas. And theft was rampant: a dock worker was said to earn “$20 a day and all the Scotch you could carry home.”

Containerisation changed everything. It was the brainchild of Malcom McLean, an American trucking magnate. He reckoned that big savings could be had by packing goods in uniform containers that could easily be moved between lorry and ship. When he tallied the costs from the inaugural journey of his first prototype container ship in 1956, he found that they came in at just $0.16 per tonne to load—compared with $5.83 per tonne for loose cargo on a standard ship. Containerisation quickly conquered the world: between 1966 and 1983 the share of countries with container ports rose from about 1% to nearly 90%, coinciding with a take-off in global trade (see chart).

The container’s transformative power seems obvious, but it is “impossible to quantify”, in the words of Marc Levinson, author of a history of “the box” (and a former journalist at The Economist). Indeed, containerisation could merely have been a response to tumbling tariffs. It coincided with radical reductions in global trade barriers, the result of European integration and the work of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the predecessor of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Read the rest here.

It is unfortunate that media and politics has successfully implanted on the public of the false importance of the short term or temporary visible gains of specific personalities or groups, such that "heroes" are characterized by victors of zero-sum activities, particularly in sports, the celebrity gossip culture and in politics.

Yet the real heroes are those inventions or ideas that ingloriously radicalized improvements on the way we live over the long run.

Flying Cars are Now a Reality

Step aside Marty Mcfly**, flying cars are now a reality.

**fictional character from the Back to the Future Trilogy

From the Daily Mail (including Photos) (hat tip lewrockwell.com)

The first flying cars are set to go on sale to the public as early as 2015.

Terrafugia has announced its Transition design, which is part sedan, part private jet with two seats, four wheels and wings that fold up so it can be driven like a car, will be on sale in less than two years.

The Massachusetts-based firm has also unveiled plans for a TF-X model that will be small enough to fit in a garage, and won't need a runway to take off.

Pls read the rest here

One thing leads to another. The flying car technology will mean more variants. Not only are these products of the marketplace, they are signify the deepening transition to the information age.

Markets in Everything: Solar Impulse, the Fuel Less Plane

Speaking of the gush of technological advancements from the deepening of the information age, here is another: the advent of fuel less solar driven airplane: the Solar Impulse

Here is an excerpt from Wall Street Journal (hat tip EPJ)

FOR BERTRAND PICCARD, the idea to build a solar-powered plane capable of circumnavigating the globe was hatched while running on empty. In March 1999, Piccard was on the final leg of an around-the-world journey by hot air balloon—the first-ever nonstop flight of its kind—when his Breitling Orbiter 3 swept low over the Egyptian desert and skidded to a halt on the corrugated plains. As Piccard stepped out onto the hot sand, he checked the fuel tanks mounted on his gondola and got a shock that became a defining moment. "We had left Switzerland with four tons of propane," he remembers. "We only had 40 kilos left! We almost didn't make it. I promised myself that next time I would fly around the world without using any fuel at all."

The 55-year-old Piccard, a trained psychiatrist with a confident, intense manner to match, is adept at making sure there is always a "next time"—no surprise, since he's descended from explorer royalty. His grandfather, Auguste, broke high altitude records in the '30s by designing a balloon with a pressurized cockpit, and later became the inspiration for Professor Calculus in the Tintin comics. In 1960, Piccard's father, Jacques, descended seven miles beneath the Pacific Ocean in another pressurized module to set a deep-dive record that has been matched only twice.

In 2003, Piccard approached European companies to sponsor what has become a $148 million project and began assembling a team of 80 engineers and technicians plucked largely from Swiss universities. After seven years of tinkering, they arrived at a machine with a deceptively simple design: Solar Impulse—with its sleek, clean lines, white-gloss finish and rakishly angled 208-foot wings (bent to increase the plane's stability)—resembles what you might get had Steve Jobs reimagined a child's balsa-wood glider in giant form.

Read more here

The wonders of human ingenuity.

Cancer treatment that kills every kind of cancer tumor

The information age will continue to bring about massive technological breakthroughs in various aspects of life. 

The “one drug that rules them all” in terms of cancer treatment may have just been discovered

From NY Post (hat tip EPJ)

Researchers might have found the Holy Grail in the war against cancer, a miracle drug that has killed every kind of cancer tumor it has come in contact with.

The drug works by blocking a protein called CD47 that is essentially a "do not eat" signal to the body's immune system, according to Science Magazine.

This protein is produced in healthy blood cells but researchers at Stanford University found that cancer cells produced an inordinate amount of the protein thus tricking the immune system into not destroying the harmful cells.

With this observation in mind, the researchers built an antibody that blocked cancer's CD47 so that the body's immune system attacked the dangerous cells.

So far, researchers have used the antibody in mice with human breast, ovary, colon, bladder, brain, liver and prostate tumors transplanted into them. In each of the cases the antibody forced the mice's immune system to kill the cancer cells.

"We showed that even after the tumor has taken hold, the antibody can either cure the tumor or slow its growth and prevent metastasis," said biologist Irving Weissman of the Stanford University School of Medicine in Palo Alto, California.

Why the Neo-Malthusian Premise of “Peak Resources” are Misguided

Writing at the Daily Reckoning, Chris Mayer, managing editor for several newsletters has a rejoinder to neo-Malthusians led by GMO’s Jeremy Grantham.

Yet whether it is oil or copper or iron ore or whatever resource, people insist on relying on the same faulty reasoning that “the easy stuff is gone.” They continue to make the same tired case for chronic natural resource shortages and a decline in our standard of living.

The great economist Joseph Schumpeter’s (1883-1950) criticism of the Malthusian position still holds. On Malthus and his ilk, he wrote: “The most interesting thing to observe is the complete lack of imagination which that vision reveals. Those writers lived at the threshold of the most spectacular economic developments ever witnessed.” Yet they missed it.

So here is my prediction: I believe we are on the cusp of even greater levels of innovation and development — another industrial revolution is in progress right now. So ignore the gloom and doom on natural resources. Contra Grantham, the days of abundant resources and falling prices are far from over.

Mr. Mayer is basically right.

But today’s high prices of commodities hasn’t just been a function of market prices operating from a laissez faire environment but importantly represents interventionism on a massive scale, particularly from central banks, whose inflationism has resulted to severe economic distortions that has been reflected on market prices. In short, prices of commodities may also represent monetary dislocations. 

Also the mining-energy industry, for instance, are tightly regulated, where regulations serve to inhibit supplies. There is also a political bias for green energy that has caused economic disruptions at the costs of taxpayers.

Nonetheless, despite these interventions, I would add that trends towards improving the supply side, buttressed by technology, are on the way. In the world of commodities, notably deep sea mining and asteroid mining are great examples.

On deep sea mining from wired.com

Deep-sea mining is poised as a major growth industry over the next decade, as large developing-world populations drive consumer demand for metal-containing products, climate change makes previously inaccessible regions like the Arctic Ocean seabed attainable, and improved extraction technologies turn previously uneconomical rock into paydirt.

Cindy Van Dover is a Professor of Biological Oceanography at Duke University and a leading voice in the development of policy and management strategies for deep-sea extraction activities.  Van Dover has studied the ecology of hydrothermal vents for years, and she takes a measured, pragmatic approach to the coming industrialization of her study sites.  If mining is going to happen – a event that the more strident faction of the environmental movement will no doubt contest – “we need to work with industry to make sure we do it right,” says Van Dover.

Taking a leaf out of deep sea mining, asteroid mining seems also in the pipeline. From Mining.com

A newly launched asteroid miner is looking to the history of deep sea mining as it attempts to navigate laws governing exploitation of space.

Deep Space Industries, which rolled out its plan for space mining today at a news conference in the Santa Monica Museum of Flying in California, said the laws regarding resource mining beyond the earth are largely unformed, and the company will rely on co-operation between the main players. (Video embed of the press conference is below.)

"If you look at parallels, like deep sea mining, that went forward without a global treaty. The companies that wanted to do deep sea mining shook hands: 'We won't interfere with you if you don't interfere with us', that was the general approach going forward," said David Gump, Deep Space's chief executive officer.

Gump said the company will be relying on the 1967 space treaty, which he says will give the company the right to utilize space resources but will not grant the right to claim any sovereign territory.

Like the shale gas boom which has exposed the major flaws in the economic interpretation of “peak oil theory”, neo-Malthusians always mistakenly construe the causal link of prices as signifying a fixed pie for the supply side while downplaying the importance of human capital in providing innovation that contributes to the rebalancing of the economics of commodities.

Professor Don Boudreaux aptly quotes the great Julian Simon from his 1996 book The Ultimate Resource 2 

“[N]atural resources are not finite in any meaningful economic sense, mind-boggling though this assertion may be.  The stocks of them are not fixed but rather are expanding through human ingenuity.”

Deepening of the Information Age: More Signs of Telecommuting

Why I don’t buy the mainstream’s embrace of the supposed deepening trend of urbanization? Because the past is hardly the future. Technological advances extrapolates to increasing decentralization of social activities. And this covers commercial activities that can be seen from corporate operations. 

Proof?

From Wall Street Journal Blog

With nearly half its employees working from home now, Aetna Inc. is convinced it is saving a good deal of money with no adverse effect on productivity.

A nine-month experiment at Ctrip, China’s largest travel agency, overseen by academic economists at Stanford and Beijing University, suggests Aetna’s experience may not be unique.

Ctrip, was looking to save money on real estate costs and cut turnover. It asked 996 employees in its Shanghai call center if they’d be interested in working at home four days a week. Half were interested, and 252 qualified for the experiment by virtue of having at least six months on the job and broadband access from a quiet corner of their home. Those with birthdays on even days were selected to work at home, those with odd birthdays stayed in the office, making this the sort of random experiment that academics relish.

And as I noted in the past

I would add that increasing specialization will hallmark the knowledge economy. And specialization will diminish the economics of urbanization.

The changing nature of work can be exemplified by the telecommuting jobs, which have been rapidly growing.

These jobs are based on the web, are flexible and are not location sensitive (working from home, or elsewhere).

The trend of web and knowledge based work localization and flexibility will further deepen.

Quote of the Day: Innovation Happens When Inventions Meet the Market

we must recognize one important insight about technology, social evolution, and economic growth. It is common for people to attribute the western world’s stunning economic growth over the last 200 years to technology. True, technology does contribute to growth in important ways, although it’s also true that economic growth helps create new technologies by generating capital to fund research. Technology, however, does not create wealth by itself, as decades of technology transfers to the third world demonstrate. For technology to lead to wealth, the right institutions are required. I like to call this the Three I’s approach: Innovation = Invention + (good) Institutions. More specifically, the market must be free enough that technology can be turned from simply an invention into an innovation. Rising wealth requires innovation, and innovation happens when inventions meet the market.

This is from Professor Steve Horwitz at the Freeman on the critical role of markets in fostering technological innovations.

Picture of the Day: Thanks to Capitalism, These Gadgets Now Fit in your Pocket

(Hat tip AEI’s Prof Mark Perry)

Capitalism has brought about dematerialization, which has converged the benefits of manifold technologies to fit in a single devise.

Make Way for 3D Printed Guitars

3D Printing has indeed been revolutionary. Many products today are being 3D "printed" such as guns and jaw replacements

Add to that list acoustic and electric guitars

Image from Businessweek/Bloomberg

From Businessweek/Bloomberg,

Scott Summit does unusual things on his vacations. For instance, he just spent a week up in the mountains, taking in the majestic scenery and all that, but also sitting at his laptop creating a 3D model of his ideal guitar. Then he sent the computer design to 3D Systems (DDD), which used its massive 3D printers to transform the graphic model into an actual acoustic instrument that Summit can play.

As far as anyone seems to know, this is the first 3D-printed acoustic guitar on the planet, and it raises all kinds musical possibilities. (As several readers noted, people have already made 3D printed electric guitars.)

As a kid, Summit pined after fancy guitars. “I wanted a $3,000 one like Jerry Garcia would play,” he says. At the time, Summit didn’t have the money, so he spent around $100 on wood and other parts and fashioned his own guitar. “It sounded like crap,” he says.

These days, Summit spends most of his time designing custom body parts and stylish prosthetics that get built from 3D printers. He is, in fact, one of the world’s leading 3D printing and design experts, and he decided to put those skills to use over a holiday, refining his childhood vision.

Yet the difference in quality seems to be negligible…

Since the acoustic guitar would be made from fused plastic, Summit figured it would have some serious shortcomings. If it actually worked, it would probably sound worse than his old $100 model. But chances were the guitar would break under the 200 pounds of string pressure that comes with tightening the strings via a tuning machine. Summit set up a video camera to record what would happen when the stringing process started. “I thought it would at least be cool if the guitar exploded,” he says.

But, no. It worked, and it sounds pretty good. “It’s rich and full and has a great tonal range,” says Summit, who’s been known to play at friends’ weddings and at dive bars.

3D made guitars signifies as a breakthrough with more innovations and product transformations ahead

Summit describes this version as a rough draft. He wants to start experimenting with more radical designs to see how they change the sound. Somewhere down the road he figures people will be able to use software to pick out what sort of treble, bass, or sustain they desire and then print a guitar to match those qualities. “It will arrive in the mail and sound just the way you wanted,” he says.

3D printing will alter the division of labor, production process, investment flows, increase specialization and will likely become a household necessity. Eventually too, 3D printing will become object of politicization from mostly the neo-luddites or even from socialists clothed with environmentalist rhetoric.

Natural-Shale Gas Revolution Spreads to Israel

The natural-shale gas boom spreads to Israel.

Reports the Financial Times (hat tip Carpe Diem’s Professor Mark Perry)

With reserves of almost 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the Tamar field is a hugely valuable asset for the Israeli economy. Discovered in January 2009, it was the biggest gas find in the world that year, and by far the biggest ever made in Israeli waters. But the record held for barely two years. In December 2010, Tamar was dwarfed by the discovery of the Leviathan gasfield some 20 miles farther east – the largest deepwater gas reservoir found anywhere in the world over the past decade. The two fields, together with a string of smaller discoveries, will cover Israel’s domestic demand for gas for at least the next 25 years, and still leave hundreds of billions of cubic feet for sale abroad. The government take from the gasfields alone is forecast to reach at least $140bn over the next three decades – a staggering sum for a relatively small economy such as Israel’s.

It’s not just in Israel but as I previously pointed out the Natural-Shale gas revolution will become a world wide phenomenon.

And we are seeing some evidence of such progress. Again the FT,

Experts are convinced that Tamar and Leviathan will not be the last big Israeli discoveries. They point to the US Geological Survey, which estimates that the subsea area that runs from Egypt all the way north to Turkey, also known as the Levantine Basin, contains more than 120 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Israeli waters account for some 40 per cent of the total. Should these estimates be confirmed through discoveries in the years ahead, Israel’s natural gas reserves would count among the 25 largest in the world, on a par with the proven reserves of Libya and ahead of those of India and The Netherlands.

Earlier Israel seems to have been devoid of energy resources.

For decades a barren energy island, forced to import every drop of fuel, Israel today stands on the cusp of an economic revolution, fuelled by the vast riches that lie below its waters.

left chart from Financial Times, right chart from Financial Post

But thanks to human ingenuity, massive advances in technology have transformed what was once resources of little economic value to become abundant highly economically valuable commodities.

Hopefully Israel’s newly discovered energy resources will serve as blessings than a (resource) curse. But this will depend on how the domestic and geopolitical trends in Israel and the Middle East will evolve.

Technology Breakthrough: A Coming Cure for Blindness?

Will blindness from retinal disorders find a lasting cure? A recent experiment which shows of the amazing pace of technological breakthroughs seems to give us that hope.

From Bloomberg, (hat tip Professor Mark Perry) [bold emphasis added]

Blind mice had their vision restored with a device that helped diseased retinas send signals to the brain, according to a study that may lead to new prosthetic technology for millions of sight-impaired people.

Current devices are limited in the aid they provide to people with degenerative diseases of the retina, the part of the eye that converts light into electrical impulses to the brain. In research described today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, scientists cracked the code the retina uses to communicate with the brain.

The technology moves prosthetics beyond bright light and high-contrast recognition and may be adopted for human use within a year or two, said Sheila Nirenberg, a neuroscientist at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York and the study’s lead author…

About 20 million people worldwide are blind or facing blindness due to retinal degenerative diseases, such as macular degeneration and retinitis pigmentosa. The disorders cause a progressive loss of the retina’s input cells, or photoreceptors.

Nirenberg and co-author Chethan Pandarinath first monitored healthy eyes to determine the set of equations that translate light received by the retina into something the brain can understand. Then, they used special glasses to create a similar code and deliver it to the eye, which had been engineered to contain light-sensitive proteins. The cells received the code through the light sensitive proteins and fired electric impulses, which the brain could interpret as images.

Nirenberg’s research “is basically giving vision back to a system that doesn’t work,” said Aude Oliva, a principal investigator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in Cambridge, Massachusetts, who wasn’t involved in the research. “I’ve never seen, and other people have never seen, this quality.”

No foreseeable barriers should stop the movement into humans now that the technology has been created, Oliva said. Nirenberg said that if researchers can come up with adequate cash to fund clinical trials, she hopes to soon adapt the technology.

Macular degeneration is the leading cause of blindness in people older than 55 in the western world and may triple in incidence by 2025 according to a 2009 report by the American Optometric Society. Retinal diseases could find a “reasonable solution” in the technology, said Jonathan Victor, a professor in the department of neurology and neuroscience at Weill who was familiar with, but not involved in the research.

Yet it is one thing to be physically blind and another to be mentally blind, especially from politics. The above shows that there is hope for the former while the latter seems incorrigible.

Chinese Political Neo Luddites and How Productivity Means More Employment

The clashing visions of entrepreneurs, whom in general desires to improve productivity through the marketplace (profit and loss system), and political agents, who looks at immediate needs for the purpose of staying in power, can be best illustrated by the proposed wide scale adaption of robotics in China’s economy.

From technologyreview.com

One of the defining narratives of modern China has been the migration of young workers—often girls in their late teenage years—from the countryside into sprawling cities for jobs in factories. Many found work at Foxconn, which employs nearly one million low-wage workers to hand-assemble electronic gadgets for Apple, Nintendo, Intel, Dell, Nokia, Microsoft, Samsung, and Sony.

So it was a surprise when Terry Guo, the hard-charging, 61-year-old billionaire CEO of Foxconn, said last July that the Taiwan-based manufacturing giant would add up to one million industrial robots to its assembly lines inside of three years.

The aim: to automate assembly of electronic devices just as companies in Japan, South Korea, and the United States previously automated much of the production of automobiles.

Foxconn, one of China's largest private employers, has long played an outsize role in China's labor story. It has used cheap labor to attract multinational clients but now faces international scrutiny over low pay and what some see as inhumane working conditions.

"Automation is the beginning of the end of the factory girl, and that's a good thing," says David Wolf, a Beijing-based strategic communications and IT analyst. Wolf, who has visited many Chinese factory floors, predicts an eventual labor shift similar to "the decline of seamstresses or the secretarial pool in America."

Since the announcement, Guo hasn't offered more details, keeping observers guessing about whether Foxconn's plans are real. (Through its public-relations firm, Burson-Marsteller, Foxconn declined to describe its progress.) Trade groups also haven't seen the huge orders for industrial robots that Foxconn would need, although some experts believe the company may be developing its own robots in house.

"Guo has good reasons for not waving his flag about this too much," says Wolf. Keeping quiet could give Foxconn a jump on competitors. What's more, with the Chinese economy slowing down, "it is politically inadvisable to talk too much about replacing people with robots," he says.

China's leaders see employment as essential to maintaining a harmonious society. The imperative of creating jobs often trumps that of efficiency. For instance, Wang Mengshu, deputy chief engineer at China Railway Tunnel Group, says that labor-saving equipment isn't always used even when it's available. "If all the new tunnels were built with the advanced equipment, that would trim the need for the employment of about six million migrant workers," he says. "In certain fields we don't want to have fast development in China, in order to solve the national employment problem."

Political leaders are shown here as practitioners of neo-Luddism—opposed to many forms of modern technology.

They are either unaware that advances in technology leads to greater productivity and more employment or simply have been looking at their narrow interests.

Hedge fund Andy Kessler eloquently explains the causal relationship in layman’s lingo.

From the Wall Street Journal, (bold emphasis mine)

So how does productivity result in more employment?

Three ways. First, some new technology comes along that allows something never before possible. Cash from an ATM, stock trading from an airplane's aisle seat, ads next to Google search results.

The inventor or entrepreneur who uses the invention benefits from sales and wealth and hires people to produce the good or service. We don't hear about this. Instead we hear about the layoffs of bank tellers, stockbrokers and media salesmen. So productivity becomes the boogeyman for job losses. And many economic cranks would prefer that we just hire back the tellers and toll collectors.

This is a big mistake because new, cheaper technology becomes a platform for others to create or expand businesses that never before made economic sense. Adobe software killed typesetters, but allowed millions cheaply to get into the publishing business. Millions of individuals and micro-size businesses now reach a national, not just local, retail market thanks to eBay. Amazon allows thousands upon thousands of new vendors to thrive and hire.

Consider Uber, a 20-month-old start-up, whose smartphone app knows where you are and with a simple click arranges a private car pickup to take you where you want. It doesn't exist without iPhones or Androids. Taxi and limousine dispatchers lose. Customers win. We'll all be surprised by new tablet applications being dreamed up in garages and basements everywhere.

The third way productivity results in more employment is by attracting capital to satisfy new consumer demands. In a competitive economy, productivity—doing more with less—always lowers the cost of products or services: $5,000 computers become $500 tablets. Consumers get to spend the difference elsewhere in the economy, and entrepreneurs will be happy to sell them what they want or create new things they never heard of, but will want. And those with capital will be eager to fund these entrepreneurs. Win, win.

The mechanism to decide the most effective use for this capital is profits. The stock market bundles profits and is the divining rod of productivity, allocating capital in cycle after cycle toward the economy's most productive companies and best-compensated jobs. And it does so better than any elite economist or politician picking pork-barrel projects and relabeling them as "investments."

The productive use of capital is not an automatic process, of course. It is all about constant experimentation. And it is never permanent: Railroads were once tremendously productive, so were steamships and even Kodachrome. It takes work, year in and year out—update, test, tweak, kill off. Staples is under fire from Amazon and other productive online retailers. Its stock has halved since its 2010 peak and is almost at a 10-year low. So be it.

With all the iPads and Facebook and cloud-computing growth, why is unemployment still 8.2% and job creation stalled? My theory is that productivity is always happening but swims upstream against those that fight it. Unions, regulations and a bizarre tax code that locks in the status quo.

Read more of the fallacies of Luddism from must read classics of the great Frederic Bastiat from “That Which is Seen and That Which is NOT Seen” (Machinery) or from the equally distinguished Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson (The Curse of the Machinery)

I am reminded by the recent conversation I had with the charter president of Rotary of Mandaluyong, Fred Borromeo, who at age 86 ironically is an avid fan of technology.

In his recent encounter with some local government neo-luddites who objected to his suggestion to adapt to new (farming) technology for the same reasons as Chinese politicians, Mr Borromeo told them, “the world will move along with or without you”. Indeed.

15-Year Old Wonderkid Dramatically Improves Pancreatic Cancer Tests

Talk about the magnificence of human capital.

From Make: (hat tip Professor Mark Perry) [bold mine]

Maryland young maker Jack Andraka isn’t old enough to drive yet, but he’s just pioneered a new, improved test for diagnosing pancreatic cancer that is 90% accurate, 400 times more sensitive, and 26,000 times less expensive than existing methods. Andraka had gotten interested in pancreatic cancer, and knew that early detection is a challenge. He gleaned information on the topic from his “good friend Google,” and began his research. Yes, he even got in trouble in his science class for reading articles on carbon nanotubes instead of doing his classwork. When Andraka had solidified ideas for his novel paper sensor, he wrote out his procedure, timeline, and budget, and emailed 200 professors at research institutes. He got 199 rejections and one acceptance from Johns Hopkins: “If you send out enough emails, someone’s going to say yes.” Andraka was recently awarded the grand prize at the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair for his groundbreaking discoveries.

Additional thoughts:

Access to technology has vastly been improving people’s capability to acquire knowledge, learn and pursue innovation: All it takes are the WILLPOWER or the PASSION to attain a goal, and importantly, the courage or having a constructive perspective of failure.

Youthful Andraka seems like another Steve Jobs in the making: focusing on matters of personal (or career) interests or “what you love” than of the traditionalism and conventionalism.

Talk about extreme determination and persistence: 199 REJECTIONS!!!

Mr. Andraka’s experience demonstrates how conventionalism abhors the unorthodox—where what works has not been reckoned as the priority, but of the conventional mindset, methodology and standards.

Nevertheless it took only ONE acceptance to prove that his theory has been viable and aptly got recognized for it.

What an accomplishment for a 15 year old! Jack’s parents must be so proud of him.

May Jack Andraka’s tribe increase.

Graphic of the Day: The Wonders of Capitalism: Dematerialization

From Marian Tupy of the Cato Institute

Dematerialization, in other words, should be welcome news for those who worry about the ostensible conflict between the growing world population on the one hand and availability of natural resources on the other hand. While opinions regarding scarcity of resources in the future differ, dematerialization will better enable our species to go on enjoying material comforts and be good stewards of our planet at the same time. That is particularly important with regard to the people in developing countries, who ought to have a chance to experience material plenty in an age of rising environmental concerns.

Maybe I am too much of an optimist, but dematerialization could also lead to a greater appreciation of capitalism. Namely, the “profit motive” can be good for the environment. No, I am not talking about dumping toxic chemicals into our rivers, which is illegal and should be prosecuted. Rather, I am talking about the natural propensity of firms to minimize inputs and maximize outputs. Take the humble soda can. According to the Aluminum Association, “In 1972… a pound of aluminum yielded 21.75 cans. Today, as a result of can-makers’ use of less metal per unit, one pound of aluminum can produce 33 cans.”

Aside from the benefits of dematerialization, consumer surpluses from the added convenience, connectivity and productivity or a better standard of living are consequences of one of capitalism’s key driving force: innovation.

The information age is bound to accelerate on the monumental transformations of innovation.

Google Launches the Google Drive

The information age will bring about a deluge of innovative consumer friendly applications in the thrust to competitively serve the consumers.

Yesterday, technology giant Google launched the Google Drive which aims to integrate much of Google’s applications and MORE.

From the Google Official Blog, (hat tip Kurzweilai.net)

Today, we’re introducing Google Drive—a place where you can create, share, collaborate, and keep all of your stuff. Whether you’re working with a friend on a joint research project, planning a wedding with your fiancé or tracking a budget with roommates, you can do it in Drive. You can upload and access all of your files, including videos, photos, Google Docs, PDFs and beyond.

With Google Drive, you can:

• Create and collaborate. Google Docs is built right into Google Drive, so you can work with others in real time on documents, spreadsheets and presentations. Once you choose to share content with others, you can add and reply to comments on anything (PDF, image, video file, etc.) and receive notifications when other people comment on shared items.
• Store everything safely and access it anywhere (especially while on the go). All your stuff is just... there. You can access your stuff from anywhere—on the web, in your home, at the office, while running errands and from all of your devices. You can install Drive on your Mac or PC and can download the Drive app to your Android phone or tablet. We’re also working hard on a Drive app for your iOS devices. And regardless of platform, blind users can access Drive with a screen reader.
• Search everything. Search by keyword and filter by file type, owner and more. Drive can even recognize text in scanned documents using Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology. Let’s say you upload a scanned image of an old newspaper clipping. You can search for a word from the text of the actual article. We also use image recognition so that if you drag and drop photos from your Grand Canyon trip into Drive, you can later search for [grand canyon] and photos of its gorges should pop up. This technology is still in its early stages, and we expect it to get better over time.

You can get started with 5GB of storage for free—that’s enough to store the high-res photos of your trip to the Mt. Everest, scanned copies of your grandparents’ love letters or a career’s worth of business proposals, and still have space for the novel you’re working on. You can choose to upgrade to 25GB for $2.49/month, 100GB for $4.99/month or even 1TB for $49.99/month. When you upgrade to a paid account, your Gmail account storage will also expand to 25GB.

Drive is built to work seamlessly with your overall Google experience. You can attach photos from Drive to posts in Google+, and soon you’ll be able to attach stuff from Drive directly to emails in Gmail. Drive is also an open platform, so we’re working with many third-party developers so you can do things like send faxes, edit videos and create website mockups directly from Drive. To install these apps, visit the Chrome Web Store—and look out for even more useful apps in the future.

This is just the beginning for Google Drive; there’s a lot more to come.

Since alot of my work has been based on the Google platform, I applied for the free option and await for their notice of access.

And yes, as a fan of technology, although I hardly know how to use the many conventional sophisticated gadgets, I expect much more consumer friendly services to come not only from Google from the rest of the industry.

Capital Markets in the Information Age: More Financial Innovations

The world does not operate in a vacuum. Given the trend of rapid increases in the imposition of strangulating bank and financial regulations, entrepreneurs have been exploring ways to sidestep or bypass the system, by harnessing advances in technology, where they can profit from serving the consumers.

I have earlier pointed out that the internet has spawned innovative ways of borrowing and lending, of payment systems, and of the financing of commercial projects via P2P Lending and Crowd Funding.

Jeffrey Tucker at the Laissez Faire Books shows us more

Squareup. This is an innovation by Jack Dorsey (Twitter fame) and his friends, and came about only in 2010. The first problem they were trying to overcome was there has to be an easier way for merchants to accept credit cards. They decided to give the hardware away for use on simple mobile phones, and then charge per transaction. Win!

In the course of developing the business, which is valued already at $1 billion, they solved an even stranger problem that all of us have but never really noticed that we have: If we don’t have our wallets with us, we can’t buy anything.

Now this is genius: Square allows you to pay by saying your name. The merchant matches a picture of your on the square system with your physical face. You look each other in the eye and the deal is done. Anyone can sign up. Yes, it is incredible. Simple and wonderful.

The Lending Club. Again, this is mind-blowing. The Lending Club matches up lenders and borrowers while bypassing the banking system altogether. The idea emerged in October 2008, just as the existing credit system seemed to be blowing up. Today, the company originates $1 million in loans per day.

Anyone can become a lender with a minimum investment of $25 per note. Lenders can choose specific borrowers or choose among many baskets and combinations of borrowers to reduce risk.

Any potential borrower can apply, but of course the company wants to keep default rates at the lowest possible level, and these are published daily (right now, they are running 3%). As a result, most applications to borrow are declined (this is good!).

The average rate of interest on the loans is 11%, cheaper than credit cards but more realistic than the Fed’s crazy push for zero. As a result, the average net annualized return is 9.6%.

The focus if of course on small loans for weddings, moving expenses, business startups, debt consolidation and the like. If you are an indebted country with large unfunded liabilities, you probably can’t get a loan. But if you are student with a job who needs upfront money to put down on an apartment, you might qualify.

Dwolla. This is a super-easy, super-slick online payment system that specializes in linking payments through social networks like Facebook and Twitter. Like most of these companies, the idea was hatched in 2008 in response to the crisis. The system was breaking down and needed new services that worked. Dwolla got off the ground in 2009, and today, it processes more than $1 million per week.

An easy way to understand Dwolla is to view it as the next generation of PayPal, but with a special focus on reducing the problem that vexed PayPal in its early years: getting rid of credit card fraud. Dwolla is focussing its product development on ways to pay that do not require sending credit card information over networks.

Dwolla has also taken a strong interest in the Internet payment system called Bitcoin, a digital unit of account that hopes to become an alternative to national monetary systems. It is a long way from becoming that, but it is hardly surprising that a young and innovative company would be interested in competition to failed paper money.

These are a few of the services, but there are hundreds more. None were created by the money masters in Washington. They are results of private innovation, individual entrepreneurs thinking their way through social and economic problems and coming up with solutions. They accept the risk of failure and enjoy the profit from success.

Indeed, as forces of decentralization deepens, we should expect more innovative technology based solutions to emerge and flourish in every industry; finance and money notwithstanding.

Quote of the Day: The Incompatibility of Innovation and Governments

It seems that as a general rule, then, the weaker the government, the better it is for innovation. With some notable exceptions, autocratic rulers have tended to be hostile or indifferent to technological change. The instinctive need for stability and the suspicion of nonconformism and shocks usually dominated the possible gains that could be attained from technological progress.

That’s from Joel Mokyr’s 1990 book, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (page 180) as excerpted by Professor Don Boudreaux

The fundamental objective of any government is the preservation of their political power through the sustainment of their political base.

And any activities that has the tendency to undermine this position will always be viewed as a threat. Thus government’s role, as pointed above, has mostly been about imposing conformity through control, and instituting dependency through political measures—such as safety nets or the welfare state—to shield against “shocks” (resistance to change) and or guard against social failure (fear of loss) through redistributive “stability” policies.

All these have been built upon the platform of centralized political institutions.

Meanwhile innovation stands at the opposite end. Innovation embraces the virtues of failure or losses through repeated trial and errors or experimentation or through the encouragement of bottom up based risk activities, which mainly operates on change-oriented and or highly competitive environments. Since innovation is about dynamism and diversity, they are usually products of decentralized institutions.

So governments approve of innovation only if it benefits them. Governments become “hostile” to innovation, if change threatens their power (this has been evident by repeated attempts to control the internet which has been counteracted by digital activists), and are “indifferent to technological change ” when innovation is seen as having neutral effects on them.

The bottom line is that innovation and the current welfare based governments represent as diametrically opposing forces, and therefore, incompatible with each other.

Chart of the Day: The Computing Trend that Will Change Everything

The progress of computational power is the essence of the the information age which will serve as the backbone for the most of technological innovation (whether in big data, smart manufacturing and wireless revolution).

From technologyreview.com

The performance of computers has shown remarkable and steady growth, doubling every year and a half since the 1970s. What most folks don't know, however, is that the electrical efficiency of computing (the number of computations that can be completed per kilowatt-hour of electricity used) has also doubled every year and a half since the dawn of the computer age.

Laptops and mobile phones owe their existence to this trend, which has led to rapid reductions in the power consumed by battery-powered computing devices. The most important future effect is that the power needed to perform a task requiring a fixed number of computations will continue to fall by half every 1.5 years (or a factor of 100 every decade). As a result, even smaller and less power-intensive computing devices will proliferate, paving the way for new mobile computing and communications applications that vastly increase our ability to collect and use data in real time…

How long can this trend continue? In 1985, the physicist Richard Feynman calculated that the energy efficiency of computers could improve over then-current levels by a factor of at least a hundred billion (10¹¹), and our data indicate that the efficiency of computing devices progressed by only about a factor of 40,000 from 1985 to 2009. In other words, we've hardly begun to tap the full potential…

The real life impact of the Moore’s law applied to electrical efficiency of computing, from the same article…

The long-term increase in the energy efficiency of computing (and the technologies it makes possible) will revolutionize how we collect and analyze data and how we use data to make better decisions. It will help the "Internet of things" become a reality—a development with profound implications for how businesses, and society generally, will develop in the decades ahead. It will enable us to control industrial processes with more precision, to assess the results of our actions quickly and effectively, and to rapidly reinvent our institutions and business models to reflect new realities. It will also help us move toward a more experimental approach to interacting with the world: we will be able to test our assumptions with real data in real time, and modify those assumptions as reality dictates.

Incredible Futuristic Eyeglasses from Google

From KurzweilAI,

In a post on Google Plus, Google X employees unveilved a prototype of the company’s “Project Glass” wrap-around augmented-reality glasses.

The glasses can superimpose information on the lenses and allow the wearer to send and receive messages via voice commands, similar to Siri.

A built-in camera can record video and take pictures.

“We’re sharing this information now because we want to start a conversation and learn from your valuable input,” the Google employees wrote. “Please follow along as we share some of our ideas and stories. We’d love to hear yours, too. What would you like to see from Project Glass?”

See video below

So eyeglasses with many digital based functionalities that can be found in today's Smartphones or the tablet. (X-Ray vision next? Lol!)

The pace of technological advancement has taken on a fantastic leap. And these have been enabled and facilitated by market forces in spite of the current spate of governments interventions.

And this is why I remain cautiously or guardedly optimistic about the future as forces of decentralization gnaws away at the foundations of 20th century centralized welfare-warfare states.

Shale Oil Revolution: (Laissez Faire) Capitalism Deals Peak Oil a Fatal Blow

I used to believe in peak oil. That all changed when I got immersed in Austrian school of economics. I have come to realize that we are dynamic, and not static, beings whose actions are driven by time and value scale based incentives in response to the changes in the environment and to social developments. In other words, human action is what drives economic values of goods or services.

And given the opportunity or the right environment or a society tolerant for experimentation that rewards success and penalizes failure, people will find ways and means to employ resources in a more efficient manner in order to improve on our current unsatisfactory conditions.

“Peak oil” as a social phenomenon, and not in the engineering sense, is about to be vanquished [unless socialists cloaked as environmentalists succeeds to put a political kibosh on this sunshine industry].

The phenomenal pace of advances in engineering technology has been intensifying the Shale Oil Revolution

From the New York Times Green Blog, (bold emphasis mine) [hat tip Professor Mark Perry]

The revolution in production in Texas and across the country is partly tied to the rising price of oil over much of the last decade, which propelled aggressive technological experimentation and development. (Government encouragement over the last several administrations helped as well.)

Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have been around for years, but over the last five years, engineers have fine-tuned these and other techniques, even as many environmentalists worry about their impact on water and air.

Computer programs have been developed to simulate wells before they are even drilled. Advanced fiber optics permit senior engineers at company headquarters to keep track of drillers on the well pad, telling them when necessary where to direct the drill bit and what pressure to use in injecting fracking fluids. Seismic work has become far more sophisticated, with drillers dropping microphones down adjacent wells to measure seismic events resulting from a fracking job so they can more accurately determine the porosity and permeability of rocks when they drill nearby in the future.

Just a decade ago, complete wells were fracked at the same time with millions of gallons of water, sand and chemical gels. Now the wells are fracked in stages, with various kinds of plugs and balls used to isolate the bursting of rock one section at a time, allowing for longer-reaching, more productive horizontal wells. A well that once took two days to drill can now be drilled in seven hours.

For instance, when the Apache Corporation began drilling in the 100,000-acre Deadwood field in the West Texas Permian basin in 2010, there had only been a trickle of production there. The deep shale, limestone and other hard rocks had potential, but for years they had not been considered economically viable. The rocks were so hard, they would have likely sheared off the usual diamond cutters on the blade of any drill bit attempting to cut through.

But new adhesives and harder alloys have made diamond cutters and drill bits tougher in recent years. Meanwhile, Apache experimented with powerful underground motors to rotate drilling bits at a faster rate. Now, a well that might have taken 30 days to drill can be drilled in just 10, for a savings of $500,000 a well.

“By saving that money, you can spend more on fracking, which translates into more sand and more stages and better productivity,” said John J. Christmann, the Apache vice president in charge of Permian basin operations.

All these serves as empirical evidence of how the price signaling channel sets in motion entrepreneur’s incentives to fulfill market demands through the employment of savings or capital accumulation in shaping the fantastic advances in technology (in spite of the numerous government interventions) in a market economy.

As the great Professor Ludwig von Mises wrote,

What distinguishes modern industrial conditions in the capitalistic countries from those of the precapitalistic ages as well as from those prevailing today in the so‑called underdeveloped countries is the amount of the supply of capital. No technological improvement can be put to work if the capital required has not previously been accumulated by saving.

Saving—capital accumulation—is the agency that has transformed step by step the awkward search for food on the part of savage cave dwellers into the modern ways of industry. The pacemakers of this evolution were the ideas that created the institutional framework within which capital accumula­tion was rendered safe by the principle of private ownership of the means of production. Every step forward on the way toward prosperity is the effect of saving. The most ingenious technological inventions would be practically useless if the capital goods required for their utilization had not been accumulated by saving.

The entrepreneurs employ the capital goods made available by the savers for the most economical satisfaction of the most urgent among the not-yet-satisfied wants of the consumers. Together with the technologists, intent upon perfecting the methods of processing, they play, next to the savers themselves, an active part in the course of events that is called economic progress. The rest of mankind profit from the activities of these three classes of pioneers. But whatever their own doings may be, they are only beneficiaries of changes to the emergence of which they did not contribute anything.

The characteristic feature of the market economy is the fact that it allots the greater part of the improvements brought about by the endeavors of the three progressive classes—those saving, those investing the capital goods, and those elaborating new methods for the employment of capital goods—to the nonprogressive majority of people. Capital accumulation exceeding the increase in population raises, on the one hand, the marginal productivity of labor and, on the other hand, cheapens the products. The market process provides the common man with the opportunity to enjoy the fruits of other peoples’ achievements. It forces the three progressive classes to serve the nonprogressive majority in the best possible way.

As seen from the shale oil revolution, the illustrious economist Julian Simon has been right anew, human beings have indeed been the ultimate resource.